General Betting
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There are many parallels when comparing Betfair and Financial markets.
i) Fundamental Analysis is basically form study
ii) Technical Analysis is basically trading sports markets using WOM etc.
The main difference being the early termination of events with sports betting i.e., at time t you know for sure whether you have profited or not. With financials: "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." J. M. Keynes
I am learning about forex and finding it fascinating esp from a Fundamental Analysis point of view. I wondered if any of you have managed to transfer your skills between these 2 domains whether it be Forex/Stocks/Commodities etc?
The main attractions I see in favour of financial markets are the "huge" liquidity and the "free markets" (no monopolistic influence (by and large)). The main advantage of Betfair being the only paying of commission on winners, but once PC is realised, this is no longer true and perhaps more comparable to a tax/commission on each trade regardless of whether a winner or not i.e., same as financials.
I have read that about 2% of forex traders actually make a profit overall - though this is largely anecdotal it does sound similar to the figure I have read are successful in sports betting markets!
Would be great to hear others experience and thoughts...?
i) Fundamental Analysis is basically form study
ii) Technical Analysis is basically trading sports markets using WOM etc.
The main difference being the early termination of events with sports betting i.e., at time t you know for sure whether you have profited or not. With financials: "Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." J. M. Keynes
I am learning about forex and finding it fascinating esp from a Fundamental Analysis point of view. I wondered if any of you have managed to transfer your skills between these 2 domains whether it be Forex/Stocks/Commodities etc?
The main attractions I see in favour of financial markets are the "huge" liquidity and the "free markets" (no monopolistic influence (by and large)). The main advantage of Betfair being the only paying of commission on winners, but once PC is realised, this is no longer true and perhaps more comparable to a tax/commission on each trade regardless of whether a winner or not i.e., same as financials.
I have read that about 2% of forex traders actually make a profit overall - though this is largely anecdotal it does sound similar to the figure I have read are successful in sports betting markets!
Would be great to hear others experience and thoughts...?
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Biggest difference would be in the financial markets you wouldn't get up to 60% of what you make robbed off you by premium charges.
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On the other side, harder to be on the right side of the spread in financial markets.
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The'Smarties' on BF stopped doing 1)and 2)years ago.
Now they make more by Fundamentally and Technically getting the 'Pipe' feed before anyone else. |
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Like you Getafix I've been looking into FX and am playing around with a spread account using Alpari.
What resources are you learning from? I like the stuff Niall Fuller and Chris Capre talk about - pure price action trading. Using higher times frames it fits in well with my exchange betting (which pays the bills and uses a lot of time) so I'm able to do market analysis at the close and put in orders and forget about them. The most important factor is risk/money management which is a discipline I've learnt after many years trading on BF. Good luck with your endevours. |
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Eight ball, I assume you refer to the in-play, early picture brigade? From what I read on the horse racing forum, I get the impression that they are all fighting for scraps these days? With football in-play, the longer bet delays mustn't help also? I have managed to do i) pretty well for the last 4-5 years; with "fundamentals" I believe you are less at risk due to changing market conditions, but rather, losing ones skill/edge (which I find more palatable - but each to their own).
John23, thanks for the pointers, I will look up those guys later. I don't do any trading here so I think my strengths would be more to do with betting which way currencies may move based on fundamentals such as latest/upcoming global news stories/events, and a bit of imaginitive math to consider currency relative value. I suppose combining both i) and ii) should hypothetically produce better returns though. I will let you know if I come across any interesting/promising resources? I have only just started using Interactive Brokers, I like the fact they offer all the major financial products and also offer an API. Don't know fully yet how they compare in terms of costs with other brokers but got to start somewhere (and I haven't the time to look at the moment - think that is a weeks work in itself). All I wanted to do initially was to have some exposure to some US shares. This has been a 2 week job (in my spare time). I thought it would be straight forward... it wasn't. I expected they would let you buy shares and do all the currency conversions etc for you. It turned out that first I had to use FX to convert currency then you can purchase. There may have been an easier way with this platform but I didn't figure it out. It has been a great learning experience as had to learn all about FX and pass their online test before being allowed access to forex markets (can see how a simple mistake could be very costly with 1:500 leverage etc). Interesting fundamentals: seeing and understanding how GBP.USD has fallen is quite depressing though how this fits in with everything that has gone on recently i.e., US Shale gas boom and start of their recovery etc. I can see the pound dropping a lot further given the budget yday and, what I believe to be, false signals from the BOE last week (which I believe was to make Osborne's job easier yday ;) ) but we'll see, I am a total "newbie" on this front! I am not naïve to think it is this simple but don't want this turning into a longer essay. I have lost quite a lot of confidence in BF and that's the main reason for this thread, I would like to expand and have an extra safety net, "just in case" so to speak. I will hope it doesn't come to that but we'll see. But don't really want to rant about that, more interested in knowing whether others have successfully transferred their skills? |
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I spent some years market making options and punting futures. I use a lot of the skills here that I developped in the financial markets (the ladders available on BetAngel/Gruss/GT are the smae layout for example) but I don't find there is enough liquidity / margin on here to make anything but some extra cash.
Eldgo |
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The trick in moving from financial trading to sports betting is to resist vertical trading and think horizontal trading.
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Yes Getafix
Close to the mark,any time monetary transactions are involved a% find ways to 'unbalance' the Level Playing field. Hourly Intras FTSE years ago is just one example, been at the Top of the queue as the pipe feed came through was an advantage. Surprisingly it took the the analytical buffs a time to realize that "others' were getting a 2 second advantage. |