General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
15 Mar 13
07:45
Joined:
Date Joined:
12 Mar 07
It puzzles me how anyone can build up a serious position on the bet side on any particular player in the outright tournament win market, when the whole outlay can be lost in the blink of an eye by a player getting injured either during a match or even during practice sessions between matches.
There would appear to me to be no way to insure against such an event. Or is there ?
Note just look at the two women withdrawals ( prior to the matches even starting) last night, that is Stosur and Azarenka. Both totally unexpected till they happened ? Am I wrong on this ? Also maybe some hoovering even took place by some punters having inside or early knowledge that these withdrawals were going to take place before they actually were publicly announced ?
There would appear to me to be no way to insure against such an event. Or is there ?
Note just look at the two women withdrawals ( prior to the matches even starting) last night, that is Stosur and Azarenka. Both totally unexpected till they happened ? Am I wrong on this ? Also maybe some hoovering even took place by some punters having inside or early knowledge that these withdrawals were going to take place before they actually were publicly announced ?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 13
|
By:
Azarenka's withdrawal was not unexpected at all, it was well known she had an ankle issue and Stosur had a hurt her calf when serving for the match against Barthel, so neither were both totally unexpected.
|
|
By:
Fair enough, but it still doesn't change the fact that outright bets on tournaments have the added risk factor that they can be lost due to unexpected injuries and that , as there would seem to be no way to insure in advance against such things, it makes it difficult to conceive of anybody building up large bet positions that can be lost at a minute's notice.
Another recent example might be Mc Ilroy's unexpected walking off the course in mid round ? I'm not complaining in any form or manner, just wondering oif anybody sees a way to mitigate such risks. There miight in fact even be a demand for some sort of insurance mkt on such events, say in the manner that many profited or protected themselves in the recent mtge mkt meltdown, by taking default insurance positions. |
|
By:
You have to look at other facts as well such as motivation, some players go into a tournament with not a lot of ranking points to protect, some go for the money and tank, , some just want a warm up for a bigger tournament such as a slam, some just don't like hard courts, some have a history of retiring frequently, see Tipsarevic, some have no hope against big hitters so looking at the draw helps, some say outright markets are a minefield of if's buts and maybe's, some say steer well clear, I tend to agree.
|
|
By:
Or perhaps only lay these mkts as at least then the defaults etc work in your favour.
|
|
By:
Azarenka has a habit of pulling out of non slams between matches. You learn through experience and you can't leave money up in an outright market when she's involved. As mesmerised said she had an ankle injury so this one wasn't totally unexpected.
There's sharks out there in the know, either through legal or illegal means. She was laid at well above market price in an outright for no apparent reason a few years back and then news filtered through she had pulled out a few hours later. |
|
By:
Wasn't an infamous betfair forum even the time a guy heard a (polish?) woman tennis player say to her coach she was going to withdraw during the match, the TV mic picked it up, the guy watching heard and translated and posted on the forum, and sure enough, it happened?
|
|
By:
forum evenT
|
|
By:
Remember it well JC, it was Wozniacki and her Dad the coach and yes Polish.
Caused a bit of a stir. ... http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/news/story?id=4584676 |
|
By:
This isn't limited to tennis.
|
|
By:
And anyway, betting is about probability. What's the probability that a player withdraws half-way through a tournament? Slim.
|
|
By:
It surely is more of a risk for tennis though, it's very very unlikely e.g. in football that enough players will be sent off or injured for the match to end as a walkover 3-0 or whatever. Tennis needs subs, Murray could get Henman on from the bench?
 |
|
By:
This isn't really an issue as long as you don't have money in the market waiting to be matched when someone withdrawls from the tournament.
Not really an issue , because it may affect you both ways, therefore even itself out. Let's say you are on Murray @ 10 for a tournament and all of a sudden Djokovic, being priced @ 1.8 , withdrawls - Happy days  |
|
By:
"Not really an issue , because it may affect you both ways, therefore even itself out."
Yeabut, it's fairly rare event so, lets say it's 50/50 either way, if you are the unlucky one, you get the proverbial "sequence of heads tosses when you wanted tails" and lose. I think I'll steer clear of Tennis anyway after trying my hand at Wimbledon last year and .. well it didn't go well. Smoking hole in the ground stuff actually  But, goddamnit, there's nothing much else ON to bet on during wimbledon, so it kind of sucks you in, with its thwack uhh thwack siren song. |