General Betting
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Undoubtably over the past 10 years Betfair has represented the truest market reflection on any given event, with an acceptable amount of liquidity. However due to Sharp Punters (Who Betfair previously welcomed and openly used as an advertising tool) being forced away by the fear of the premium charge, and markets where a high percentage of liquidity is provided by traders manipulating and taking positions. Could we be entering a new era where transparency will be a thing of the past? I for one hope so.
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Replies: 11
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"the truest market reflection"- at what time in the day ? The prices keep changing.What or when do you mean ?
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Sorry. At off time.
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if the overrounds remain the same, on what basis do you think the markets would be less efficient?
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Last time I really looked the markets tended to all follow each other as in days of the "information superhighway" everyone can see the odds instantly, never mind odds compilations sites, and if they didn't they'd be arbed to h*ll and back once enough of a gap appeared?
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On the basis, liquidity provided by traders has always existed, but in previous years if a price moved to far out of line from its true value it would be soon brought back by sharp punters. As less and less of these smart people are ceasing to exist on betfair then the true value of an event is no longer accurately portrayed by betfair's prices at or close to off time? This is just my assumption and welcome any other opinions.
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In regards to bookmakers prices. Then these are still completely dictated by activity on Betfair whether the money is now smart,mug or traders, I think the arbing game has completely gone as bookmakers margins have become so slim to compete with Betfair that they are literally quaking in their boots when it comes to taking a bet. If you are a winning punter or arber you have absolutely no chance of getting on.
Bookmaking as I know it has become a front for a corporate amusement arcade. Would we be better off without the transparency of an exchange? Would bookmakers then eventually increase margins slightly and start laying bets again? |
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High Risk:
"As less and less of these smart people are ceasing to exist ..." Sorry to be a pedant, but that looks like a double-negative. Did you mean that there are less smart people on Betfair now or more? |
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High Risk- We all make "assumptions" based on what appears to be happening in markets. The only way to answer your questions is to find someone who has logged a few thousand prices and done a serious study.
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I do apologize for the poor use of the English Language PP. Obviously you are one of the few Sharp Minds left. I'am sure that the real PP would of understood the meaning.
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Artie. In an ideal world then I would love to sit down and do a serious study, but unfortunately I am not blessed with the time. Although I use the word 'assumption' then this assumption is based on years worth of bets logged and a gradual increase in profit margins solely on Betfair in the last 2 years.
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This is why the internet is so great.
You can sit around at home in your underwear and not know the difference between "fewer" and "less" or "too" and "to" & still make a buck. |