General Betting
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10 Feb 13
14:16
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Date Joined:
16 Sep 06
There doesn't seem to be much difference stats-wise between matches ending 2-0,1-0 or 2-1, yet 2-0 is often nearly double the odds of the other 2 scores. Does this make 2-0 value, or am I, as ever, missing something?
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Replies: 18
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Give it a go, mate.
 Have you got a clue as to which games, teams, leagues, prices, etc? Good luck. |
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Simple answer, 1-0 and 2-1 is two bets,
2-0 is just one, hence the diff in price. Don't know what stats you are looking at, but 1-0 and 2-1 coupled win a lot more often than 2-0. |
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He's talking in English.
To be clearer: There doesn't seem to be much difference stats-wise between matches ending matches ending 2-0 OR 1-0 OR 2-1, yet 2-0 is often nearly double the odds of the MINUMUM/AVERAGE/MAXIMUM of the other 2 scores ODDS. |
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JL, It's not clear (to me) what you mean, could
you please clarify? |
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they're not 'coupled'!
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2-0 is not double the odds and 2-0 doesnt happen as often as 1-0 or 2-1. Take a bit off both sides and that's compounding the mis-information
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2-0 does happen less often, but not much less. For example, Premier League 2011/12 33 games were 1-0, 30 were 2-1 and 30 were 2-0.
Premier League 2010/11 40 games 1-0, 40 games 2-1, 30 games 2-0. 2-0 isn't always double the odds, but it sometimes is, particularly if you're betting on the outsider. For example QPR v Man U this Saturday, 1-0 is currently 22 to back, 2-1 is 24 to back, 2-0 is currently 50 and will probably go higher. |
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2-0 isn't always double the odds, but it sometimes is, particularly if you're betting on the outsider
Leaving this rather imortant sentence out in your first post is pretty essential. |
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I never said 2-0 is always double the price, I said it often is and that's perfectly true. Not hard to find 2-0 at more than double if you look.
You're being a bit nitpicky aren't you, and missing the point. |
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I'm not being nitpicky and it's you that are missing the point.
You are using stats in a way similar to saying you should back the home team in football matches when you get odds better than evens because stasticially the home team wins 50 % of the matches. |
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No I'm not, I'm saying the chances of QPR nicking it 2-0 on Saturday aren't less than half the chances of them nicking it 2-1.
So either one of those prices must be wrong, or I'm wrong. I'm putting my money where my mouth is as I've got £2 waiting to be matched at 60 on 2-0  |
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That's because Man U are heavy favourites so they are more likely to lose by just 1 goal than 2 goals.
Look at Arsenal v Aston Villa this weekend. 1-0 is 12, 2-1 is 10.5 and 2-0 is 7.6. By your rational you should be going heavily on the 1-0 as it happens more often than the 2-0 and yet it is longer odds. Have to agree with Eddie. |
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U.A. if I was going to bet one of those scores I'd choose the 1-0, and I reckon by backing that I'd be more likely to be up in the long-term. In fact, at a large percentage higher than the 2-0, that 1-0 looks quite decent.
My theory is that you just can't tell out of those 3 what the score is likely to be, so if one is massively bigger odds than the other two you should back it. If you fancy Arsenal to win, it's just as likely to be 1-0 as 2-0 or 2-1 (within a small margin, which is why you're looking for a big difference in the odds). Going back to the stats, in last year's Premier League against opponents outside the top four, Man City had two 2-0s and zero 1-0s, Man U had five 2-0s and two 1-0s, Arsenal had four 1-0s and zero 2-0s. A tiny sample, but it indicates there's no clear pattern. |
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The shorter the win odds of the favourite, the more likely 2-0
than 1-0 or 2-1. The closer the betting difference, the less likely 2-0 than 1-0 or 2-1. It's as simple as that. |
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Stop trying to educate them Eddie. You need people like this to win off
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If they get matched I've got £2 on each of West Brom, Reading, Norwich, QPR, Wigan to win 2-0 this weekend. Odds range from 32 for QPR to 110 for Norwich.
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There I was thinking this was another one of those Pommy "we won the war" threads.
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pre kickoff, the correct score odds reflect the probability of full time scores. you can easily get a general picture of how scores are distribted by collecting a few hundereds of games full time result from different websites. you can learn more if you did this in a more organized and intelligent way, for eg, based on league, rank.... then you can adjust the model you get based on specific teams circumstances. that said, be warned that most of the betfair markets are very efficent amd you have to be more efficent than the market in your pricing to beat the market.
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