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WarOfAttrition
04 Jan 13 19:45
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Date Joined: 10 Jan 08
| Topic/replies: 62 | Blogger: WarOfAttrition's blog
Hi

Can anyone share average odds for set betting based on win odds E.g.

1.2-1.3 - 3v0 = ** , 3v1=** , 3v2=**
1.3-1.4 - 3v0 = ** , 3v1=** , 3v2=**

Just a rough calculation/correlation will do.

Thanks in advance, much appreciated
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Report Andriy January 4, 2013 9:04 PM GMT
If you look at it from a theoretical viewpoint, just using a straight negative binomial (working backwards from the match odds to get an individual set rating) i get something like:
MO:1.4     3-0: 4.2  3-1: 3.7  3-2: 4.8
MO:1.3     3-0: 3.6  3-1: 3.4  3-2: 5.0
MO:1.2     3-0: 2.9  3-1: 3.2  3-2: 5.4

However, in reality this is probably bullsh1t5, since if the better player gets ahead, the conditional prob that'll he'll win the next reduces drastically wrt set rating, due to the psychology of the game and importance of head to head record between the 2 players etc. The odds of 3-0 will therefore be a bit shorter than above and 3-2 a bit longer. Be interesting to see if any of the tennis guys have a sort of standard approach to this since it's such a momentum dependent sport.
Anyway, that's my starter for ten.
Report WarOfAttrition January 4, 2013 9:24 PM GMT
Thanks for the response. I'm particularly interested in the odds pre start.

I have been doing some analysis from data from tennis-data.co.uk and I have found some interesting trends around correct set score. I just don't know how to prove it by including the odds for those markets.

This certainly helps and like you I expect the 3v0 to be slightly shorter and vice versa.


Hopefully one of the tennis guys will dive in here :-)
Report tier January 5, 2013 5:15 PM GMT
Check bookies it will give you an idea...
Report DStyle January 5, 2013 5:43 PM GMT
andriy is correct. it's basically binomial modified with a bias on the favourite to win in straights.
Report DStyle January 5, 2013 5:45 PM GMT
(with the bias obviously nicking from the favs other selections). the dog odds are nearly always spot on the binomials.
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