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green army
03 Dec 12 12:23
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 2,610 | Blogger: green army's blog
as the other one has died, if anyone's interested in posting trading ideas - no abuse please i admit what i am , i'm a member of AA (Aftertimers Anonymous) - i've been to my meeting already today - "I'm Green Army & I'm an aftertimer"  - they all clapped and we congratulated each other for being on swansea on saturday

FWIW I reckon wigan are too high at 4 as newcastle have lost their last 4 and were v poor v swansea in the last home game - the stats show a low scoring game wigan 1-0 at 14 for me

the draw at 12 for chelsea on wednesday i think is too high too & Udinese 4.2 v liverpool looks big - i realise its caveat emptor with the reds but Udinese are a good Serie A side that won at anfield and i believe a win will put them thru and knock the reds outs (ie i think its GD between the teams in the 2 games rather than in the group ? - apologies if thats not right)

and a bit of fun on bayern v bate - i took 970/1 on 3-1 bate - thats the score bate beat them by in the reverse fixture and this game doesn't matter - this time next year.........
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Report smithy91 November 28, 2014 9:23 AM GMT
Morning ga! Was talking to sweetchildofmine yesterday on prematchtrading.com chatroom and he's wondering why you haven't made the move over yet to join us. There's quite a few heads that used to post on this thread over there now. Me , sweetchildofmine and hodinia to name a couple. There's a team of traders some working together posting correct score, over/under and match odds trades and sharing ideas etc. There's a mixture of young traders and also traders in their 40s that have been around the block and done it :). It's a lot better than on here because instead of a few posts here and there we have constant discussions which go on throughout the day on the chatroom plus there's the pmt automated tool which enables us to find the correct score gaps in the market!  There's 3 or 4 of us that have started bullying the markets for lower liquidity games leaving big lays in correct score to try and bully the market and force it back. It's been good fun on there this season :)
Report smithy91 November 28, 2014 9:28 AM GMT
For this weekend I can't see anything other than chelsea getting backed off the walls against Sunderland.  Sunderland drifted vs two of the premier leagues weakest sides in crystal palace and Leicester so the markets don't give them any respect.  I reckon chelsea stay under the 1.45 barrier for sure and I expect carnage after the saturday 3pms finish with punters falling over each trying to back high chelsea winning scores. It makes sense to get positioned early for this one!
Report green army November 28, 2014 9:46 AM GMT
smithy I'll have a look - this weekend I'm looking at wba at 4.8 v arse , surely too high with arses injuries, Wilshire etc

also burton at 4.8 at shrewsbury, the shrews are good but burton are up there with them and jimmy Floyd has won his first 2 games as manager
Report JK257 November 28, 2014 10:37 AM GMT
Silly prices for our game with Notts County tonight. 1.62 for the home win is way too short. The 4.2 for the draw looks very generous considering how low scoring most Sheff Utd games are. But again, it's League One so it's difficult to commit to it.
Report green army November 28, 2014 11:56 AM GMT
notts c look too long jk - hey you up for the cup next Saturday ? beware the green army
Report Rob_The_Bantam November 29, 2014 8:03 AM GMT
Well done, JK.  Good tipping.  Going to have a few Premier League bets this weekend.

Taken Arsenal at West Brom at 1.85.  Seem to remember Arsenal being a very similar price a few months back away at Villa and don't rate WBA much more than I do Villa, so the price seems more than fair given that Arsenal won at a canter that day.  I know they have a few injury absentees, but WBA are utter gash and I expect Arsenal to get the job done.  In the event of some pre match surge into something like 1.7 I'll probably take my stake back, but content to be on at the price.

Laying Burnley.  Yes, Villa suck, but 2.2?  Come on.  Burnley should be favs, but not this short.  Wouldn't be surprised if Villa won, but happy enough to just lay Burnley.

Can't help but feel that 1.73 on Liverpool will look big come 16:45, so am on despite usual reservations about them being a bang average side.

No bet on Man U v Hull.  1.33 not a price that appeals, although I don't see how Hull avoid defeat.

QPR v Leicester - who cares?

Swansea are at full strength (pretty much) vs Palace.  1.83 looks more than fair.  I'm on.

West Ham v Newcastle - fancy the Hammers to win, but it has all of the hallmarks of a match I'd lose on even if I backed all 3 at their optimum price.  So no bet, as prices look bang on.

Sunderland v Chelsea - agree with smithy in that I expect Chelsea to be heavily backed provided they put out a strong side.  1.41 (if matched) for the undefeated pretty much nailed on League winners looks like a more than reasonable price versus the complete garbage that is Sunderland.  Probably do 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0 as well if I haven't squandered loads on the 15:00 kick offs!

Also having an Arsenal, Villa, Liverpool, Man U, Swansea, Hammers and Chelsea sevenfold, which is surely phree munny.

Finally, backing Leyton Orient to beat my lot.  We're normally very charitable to teams below us who are in need of a win, and I don't expect tomorrow to be any different.  Taking Leeds at 4.3 as well.  Mainly because I'll be happy whatever the result that way Laugh .

Good luck all.
Report smithy91 December 1, 2014 9:36 AM GMT
Some good tips there rob the bantam! How you finding your first week on pmt green army are you impressed with the tool. One of the experienced traders on pmt likes to call me a "youth value fukka" which I'm quite happy to take on the chin. I find if you sit patiently around certain scorelines in value positions you often don't get anything matched. When I force the market into where I want it to go I end up with huge greens. That is it in a nutshell for me so I'm quite happy to be called a "youth value fukka". I didn't land any scorelines at weekend but my trading partner is absolutely flying at the minute.  He only started trading at the beginning of this year and I've never seen someone adapt to the art trading as quick as he has. It was all from a private message on betfair forum to me I showed him a few things on correct score and now he's miles better than me. I suppose being an accountant though he was already good with numbers. We doubled teamed the 2-0 spurs yesterday 14 into 13.5 then I took 2k at 8 1-1 he took 1k and instead of laying off at 7.8 I tried the 7.6 lay over 2.5 got backed in and I ended up scratching at 8 like a complete buffoon.  I broke the rule of don't be a d!ck for a tick!
Report green army December 1, 2014 2:17 PM GMT
yeah some good info smithy. im still learning to curb my knowledge of football against which way the markets may go, a simple eg I could see lpool without suarez and sturridge were very very average ages ago, but this only now is reflected in price. just hope the markets liquidity holds up and theres profits to be made
Report smithy91 December 1, 2014 5:15 PM GMT
That's true ga. I've had two weeks off from match odds. Leicester going off at 1.97 vs Sunderland was the final straw for me. Big asian syndicates manipulating the markets to where they shouldn't be going. Liverpool should be 2.24-2.26 vs Leicester we will see if that gets there although I won't be putting money on it. Glad your enjoying pmt. One guys tips to lookout for is jb79 the guy only ever leaves his laptop to go to work.  He knows correct score inside out I've been following his tips all season :) one other thing I've noticed is the amount of traders signing up to pmt that DON'T have a clue what their doing and expect pmt to print money off which will never work as you need to understand the markets. So although correct score is packed with shrewds there are plenty of beginner traders pumping money into correct score going in blindly off pmt which is destined for failure. Pmt is there as a guideline it's not gospel.
Report smithy91 December 1, 2014 5:31 PM GMT
I've been testing something out during the last month aswell. Everytime I'm set in position I post what score I'm on so everyone on the chatroom can see. Somebody puts a stack right behind me in the queue and follows me in. I'm guessing it's some of the beginner traders because it seems to happen everytime. If the trade dosen't quite pan out it makes it easier to scratch it. I drove the arsenal vs dortmund 2-2 14 into 12.5 last week and then it started to reverse back up with a load of pmt followers backing heavily at 13. To say it was panic stations would be an understatement. It went off 13.5-14!
Report no moves December 1, 2014 7:22 PM GMT
"I've been testing something out during the last month aswell. Everytime I'm set in position I post what score I'm on so everyone on the chatroom can see. Somebody puts a stack right behind me in the queue and follows me in. I'm guessing it's some of the beginner traders because it seems to happen everytime".



This suggests the purpose of your participation on forums is to ramp up your bet.
Report green army December 1, 2014 7:45 PM GMT
"I've been testing something out during the last month aswell. Everytime I'm set in position I post what score I'm on so everyone on the chatroom can see. Somebody puts a stack right behind me in the queue and follows me in. I'm guessing it's some of the beginner traders because it seems to happen everytime".



This suggests the purpose of your participation on forums is to ramp up your bet.

no brain
Report no moves December 1, 2014 8:01 PM GMT
Just to be clear Green Army is that a yes from you?
Report green army December 1, 2014 8:12 PM GMT
yes, no I mean no, yes, no, maybe
Report no moves December 1, 2014 8:30 PM GMT
Surely the paraagraph I reproduced from smithy91, piece of writion is just about the most blatant admission of ramping a position in order to alter the market in your favour its possible to get?

Your surely not disagreeing with the idea this is ramping or are you? with your  remark "NO BRAIN".


Your "NO BRAIN" remark reads to  me like of course its ramping thats what we are all doing isn't it.
Report smithy91 December 1, 2014 9:23 PM GMT
There are atleast four traders no moves who's bets get copied on pmt chatroom I've been monitoring.  Some of the newbies that come on are probably better off copying as you can tell by some of questions they ask they will lose a lot of money! One guy last week couldn't understand why a score didn't get backed in because pmt said it should be shorter :/
Report smithy91 December 2, 2014 9:33 AM GMT
Burnley vs Newcastle looks like a nailed on 1-1 draw to me. Unders 1.78 means the market only expects 1 or 2 goals and I agree with it. Newcastle have a few injuries and with the run they have been on a point wouldn't be a bad result. Burnley have improved a bit recently beating stoke away and drawing 1-1 with villa at weekend.  1-1 ft result tonight for me!
Report JK257 December 2, 2014 11:59 PM GMT
Had exactly the same idea, traded plenty on the draw and a bit on the 1-1. My favourite sort of game.
Report Rob_The_Bantam December 3, 2014 3:00 AM GMT
Well done, lads.  Laid Burnley myself.  Nobody loses on Betfair forum!
Report smithy91 December 3, 2014 9:29 AM GMT
Well done lads. My kind of game to that jk :). I think there's a trend that's developed in the premier league just like in the championship. Apart from man city and chelsea every team that plays away from home has a great chance of drawing 1-1 as it's a very level playing field. The bottom 12 sides in the league are all in a relegation scrap so we see lots of draws. The sides above the 12 arsenal,  everton,  Southampton,  Tottenham,  Liverpool and man united all look suspect when they play away from home mainly after european games.  This also brings the 1-1s into play for their away games. A basic system but one that should work all season like burnley vs Newcastle.  Just a case of getting money down early and into the right position in line with under/over 2.5 goals!
Report green army December 3, 2014 10:00 AM GMT
anyone else think the sunderland overs is set far too high at 2.42 - sunderland have beaten city 1-0 in each of their last 4 visits and drew 0-0 with Chelsea on saturday
Report smithy91 December 3, 2014 12:51 PM GMT
I'm having serious mixed views about this Sunderland vs man city game ga as I've already posted in pmt chatroom. I can totally see why people think 0-0 is big at 19. I'm one of them I mean can it really go much higher after Sunderland held the league's best team at home on Saturday.  We can expect Sunderland to play the same tactics as against chelsea so they will try and stop the intricate passing on the edge of the box and also pack the penalty box out so city can't get through then hit them on the counter.  I would like to get 0-0 onside myself.  I have unders at 2.28 ish for this and market goes 2.42. I'm playing a risky game here though because I'm big on 3-1 man city 14-14.5 even though I think unders is big. I do reckon city get the job done tonight and break the stadium of light hoodoo.  Closing the gap on chelsea to 6 points then losing it again in the space of a few days would surely be unthinkable.  Interesting game and market this one!
Report Rob_The_Bantam December 6, 2014 8:10 AM GMT
Dithering over whether to get stuck into Arsenal.  Stoke always well up for this match since the Ramsey/Shawcross nonsense.  Arsenal hate going to Stoke.  Arsenal grinding out wins at the moment, while Stoke are losing matches that they're not playing particularly badly in.  Expected Arsenal to be around the 2.16 mark, so going to have to take them on, but have a sinking feeling about the bet.

Can't see a great deal else to get excited about in the Prem.  Should QPR be approaching evens against Burnley?  Probably not.  Would have QPR at around the 2.25 mark, so will take them on too, albeit for a non-lifechanging amount, as I've not seen enough of either this year to get heavily involved.

City will probably get backed assuming it's a strong side, as it's the evening kick off and Aguero seems to be good for a goal a game at least.  Meh.
Report JK257 December 6, 2014 5:19 PM GMT
Villa look big at 2.42 at home to Leicester.
Report green army December 6, 2014 8:33 PM GMT
a view on pretty much all forums jk, I layed Leicester at 3.3 hoping for 3.6
Report hodinia December 7, 2014 3:28 PM GMT
wow Leicester coming in to 3.0

not sure what to make of that, hopefully people know they are playing away!
Report smithy91 December 7, 2014 9:18 PM GMT
English traders 2 Asian traders 1

we get the market wrong again but get the result right standard procedure. final match odds position after all that . aston villa 0 draw 0 Leicester -£10. the Asian traders going down with their beloved Leicester to the championshipCool

Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Match Odds  Leicester Lay 44242288882 07-Dec-14
11:52    C 3.15  500.00   3.15 500.00

Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Match Odds  Leicester Back 44256092598 07-Dec-14
14:48    C 3.15  1,300.00   3.15 (1,300.00)

Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Match Odds  Leicester Lay 44227715212 06-Dec-14
21:57    C 3.4  500.00   3.4 500.00

  Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Match Odds  Leicester Lay 44227468186 06-Dec-14
21:47    C 3.35  500.00   3.35 500.00

  Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Match Odds  Leicester Lay 44218024449 06-Dec-14
19:07    C 3.35  300.00   3.35 300.00

  Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Match Odds  Leicester Back 44238649935 07-Dec-14
10:41    C 3.25  2,000.00   3.25 (2,000.00) 

  Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Match Odds  Leicester Lay 44236031875 07-Dec-14
08:29    C 3.1  500.00   3.1 500.00 

  Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Match Odds  Leicester Lay 44235140226 07-Dec-14
07:05    C 3.1  1,000.00   3.1 1,000.00
Report smithy91 December 7, 2014 9:22 PM GMT
had benteke and ulloa onside for first goalscorer.Happy benteke went off at 5.3 standard 4pm sunday pump and dump on the main forward. market just collapses. some people's stats models say benteke is 6 and it's chaos all falling over each other trying to get onLaugh

  Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / First Goalscorer  Leonardo Ulloa Back 44260133446 07-Dec-14
15:41    C 8.4  20.00   8.4 148.00

Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / First Goalscorer  Christian Benteke Lay 44256705179 07-Dec-14
14:57    C 6.4  500.00   6.4 500.00 

  Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / First Goalscorer  Christian Benteke Back 44256636284 07-Dec-14
14:56    C 6.8  500.00   6.8 (500.00)
Report smithy91 December 7, 2014 9:24 PM GMT
came very close to landing the 2-2 aswell!Cry

  Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Correct Score  2 - 2 Lay 44251519471 07-Dec-14
13:55    C 17.5  861.00   17.5 861.00 

  Fixtures 07 December / Aston Villa v Leicester / Correct Score  2 - 2 Back 44251493745 07-Dec-14
13:55    C 18.5  861.52   18.5 (861.52)
Report smithy91 December 7, 2014 9:33 PM GMT
not sure how to play Southampton vs man united. current odds saints 2.92 man united 2.64 the draw 3.55. I reckon saints could get backed purely based on the Asian force behind them! just like Leicester. they don't go off form this lot who rule our markets. look at Leicester today 3.5 into 2.98 with no wins in 9 again no logic. so saints in a bit of poor form will it affect anything. no I don't think it will. wouldn't be surprised if we see saints go off favourites it could happen. man united are shorter than man city to win their. city were 2.7 at kickoff united are 2.64. seems a bit weird to me this. I won't be touching match odds with a bargepole but all this uncertainty makes correct score a pain to trade. then look at under/over 2.5. unders only very marginal fave at 1.96 so that's also on a knifedge. i'm waiting for match odds to move in the morning before making my move in what will be an extremely competitive market
Report smithy91 December 7, 2014 9:40 PM GMT
good call on stoke beating arsenal rob you were rightHappy the gunners defence excelling themselves on the road againGrin
Report Rob_The_Bantam December 7, 2014 10:41 PM GMT
Thing is, United are shorter than City as market was unsure how Saints would cope with City.  As it was, they got mauled by ten men and have since lost at Arsenal, so was always bound to affect the prices of this match.  But, like you, I'm staying away at the moment.  Nothing appeals.
Report smithy91 December 9, 2014 11:17 AM GMT
Laying 1-1 @ 6.8 juventus vs atletico madrid today.  6.8 is as low as a 1-1 can go pretty much so I've put a wall of steel at 6.8 today! 3-1 dortmund 11.5-12 looks good to me vs anderlecht.  Liverpool vs basle looks awful. If I had to stick my neck out I'd say unders are value at 2.1. Liverpool don't score at anfield anymore. Galatasary vs arsenal.  Arsenal have already named their team and sanogo is playing. Sanogo always tends to bring unders in and seen as unders starts off high I reckon we see an unders crash pre off 2.26 into 2.1. I'm laying 2-2 @ 14.5 in that game!
Report smithy91 December 11, 2014 9:31 AM GMT
Not many people will have been looking forward to besiktas vs Tottenham this week but I have I think there's a decent chance to make money on it! In the reverse fixture at white hart lane besiktas where huge at 5/1 to win but unfortunately they lacked a cutting edge in front of goal even with former chelsea hitman demba ba playing the lone striker.  Eventually they scored a deserved equaliser from the penalty spot and the game ended 1-1! Now I quite like the look of this 2.4 on besiktas to win tonight but there's a problem demba ba is injured so from what I saw during the reverse fixture I'm not convinced they have the cutting edge to score goals against spurs. For Tottenham a draw is perfect they top the group of qualify as the seeded team. Besiktas need to beat spurs to finish above them. So spurs will come for a draw tonight I believe so it looks nailed on under 2.5 goals at 1.79 with everything taken into consideration.  0-0 @ 11 and 1-1 @ 7.4 is where I want green in correct score.  Arsenal played at besiktas in a champs league qualifier back in august. That game was 0-0 as even the likes of alexis sanchez couldn't find a way past besiktas's stubborn defence. Roll on 6pm!
Report smithy91 December 11, 2014 9:44 AM GMT
Demba ba has scored 9 of his sides 13 goals in their last 6 games. Says it all really besiktas talisman has a broken toe and misses out tonight # under 2.5 goals
Report green army December 11, 2014 1:24 PM GMT
smithy I did spurs 3.7 in to 3.25 and everton 1.97 to 1.77 - Europa league my best comp lately
Report guernseyw December 11, 2014 3:37 PM GMT
http://www.itv.com/news/granada/2014-12-11/do-you-know-these-men-cctv-released-after-football-disorder/

hope your not on gallery row smithy haha !!!
Report smithy91 December 11, 2014 6:44 PM GMT
great work ga. I never expected that gamble on everton would never of picked that out myself.Happy

Guernsey- nothing to do with me thatBlushHappy
Report smithy91 December 11, 2014 6:49 PM GMT
that's what happens when you let 8,000 leeds fans loose in Blackburn on a Saturday afternoon guernsey. it's their biggest away following of the season Blackburn away because they know they can run riot and nothing is done lolPlain
Report smithy91 December 18, 2014 10:54 AM GMT
Tickets for the Liverpool vs arsenal 2-2 train have now gone on sale! We are setting off today from platform 15 having a brief stop at platform 14.5 before arriving at our destination which is anfield platform 14 at approximately 3pm on sunday. There is a 10 % chance our train might derail and we have to abort at platform 15 but there's only a small chance that will happen as both Liverpool and arsenal do not have any defenders that are capable of defending and stopping the opposition from scoring so goals are widely expected on sunday. I am smithy91 your train conductor over the next few days and I wish everyone I safe journey. Choo chooHappy
Report green army December 19, 2014 10:21 PM GMT
my trades are 3-1 and 3-0 utd, w ham 1-0 at 10s and Ipswich match odds 3.0 v boro
Report smithy91 December 22, 2014 9:18 AM GMT
Won £1148 on Liverpool vs arsenal 2-2 :) bit rough today to say the least :)
Report smithy91 December 22, 2014 9:34 AM GMT
Not sure what to do with stoke vs chelsea tonight. Chelsea at 1.65 look bang on to me I expect them to get the job done but in fairness they are prone to an away stinker.  Vs Newcastle away and vs Sunderland away will stick in my memory all season.  Also if we look at stoke they have beaten arsenal,  Tottenham and man city this season so they have proven they can mix it with the big boys!  Wouldn't like to write them off!
Report smithy91 December 22, 2014 10:10 AM GMT
Come to think of it chelsea can't be trusted at 1.63 stoke are a strange side these days lose at home to small teams and beat the big teams. Might dutch crouch and bojan at big prices to score first. Last time I backed crouch to score first he bagged a header vs Newcastle at home on monday night football.
Report green army December 22, 2014 10:17 AM GMT
well done on that smithy, drinks are on you - I've got a reasonable wedge on 2-2 stoke tonite at 24, layed some last night at 22 but its rebounded back
Report smithy91 December 22, 2014 11:27 AM GMT
Cheers ga. I've managed to get 80 green on stoke vs chelsea 2-2 so far it's a score I want to be on also at the prices. I layed 23 backed 24 had to approach from the lay side. I'm front of the queue laying 0-0 @ 11.5 but only got £66 matched hoping to green at 12.5 but will be a very long wait to get 12.5 matched as 6k infront of me. It looks as though I will have to straight back 1-1 @ 9.4 with £20. I don't feel comfortable trading that scoreline whatsoever way to volatile with chelsea appearing to be backed in.
Report smithy91 December 22, 2014 12:01 PM GMT
Trying to lay 3-0 chelsea 13-13.5 to short for my liking I don't think chelsea will have it that straightforward!  Should be 15 minimum!
Report smithy91 December 27, 2014 3:50 PM GMT
last weeks monster 2-2 bet on Liverpool vs arsenalGrin

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44685518021 21-Dec-14
16:04    C 14  5.00   14 65.00 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44685474644 21-Dec-14
16:03    C 14  30.00   14 390.00 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44685322350 21-Dec-14
16:01    C 13  34.85   13 (418.20) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44683638232 21-Dec-14
15:27    C 14  200.00   14 2,600.00

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44683344152 21-Dec-14
15:23    C 14  200.00   14 2,600.00

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44682370845 21-Dec-14
15:08    C 14  20.00   14 260.00 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44668800063 21-Dec-14
11:30    C 13.5  400.00   13.5 (5,000.04) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44668776338 21-Dec-14
11:30    C 14  500.00   14 (6,500.00) 
 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44653080935 20-Dec-14
19:07    C 14  200.00   14 (2,600.00) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Back 44590217326 19-Dec-14
09:26    C 14.5  1,000.00   14.5 13,500.04 

 
  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44585225631 18-Dec-14
21:42    C 14  100.00   14 (1,300.00) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44585214654 18-Dec-14
21:42    C 14  100.00   14 (1,300.00)
Report smithy91 December 27, 2014 3:53 PM GMT
this is me panicking in last few mintutes fortunately mingolet halted santi cazorla. I had to walk away from my mates in the pub to concentrate lol.

Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691054351 21-Dec-14
17:56    C 1.04  100.00   1.04 (4.00) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691044716 21-Dec-14
17:56    C 1.06  100.00   1.06 (6.00)

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691036483 21-Dec-14
17:56    C 1.07  100.00   1.07 (7.00)

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691028106 21-Dec-14
17:56    C 1.11  100.00   1.11 (11.00)
 
  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691016366 21-Dec-14
17:55    C 1.12  100.00   1.12 (12.00)
 
  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44691005147 21-Dec-14
17:55    C 1.14  100.00   1.14 (14.00) 

  Fixtures 21 December / Liverpool v Arsenal / Correct Score New  2 - 2 Lay 44690990220 21-Dec-14
17:55    C 1.17  200.00   1.17 (34.00)
Report smithy91 December 27, 2014 4:08 PM GMT
train tickets have now gone on sale for the Tottenham vs man united 2-2 train at 14! two teams evenly matched and goals are expected it only means one thing. a 2-2 packout! harry kane is on fire at the minute for spurs so we have to give him his customary goal. likewise wayne rooney he's also on fire for Manchester united so we'll give him a goal aswell! these two sides keep going over 2.5 goals so overs at 1.75 is going to attract many punters including me. if we look at both sides past results there is a lot of 2-1 1-2 results so we just need an extra goal from somewhere to get this 2-2 and I think there is enough firepower on show to get it!

Leicester 1-2 tottenham
Tottenham 1-2 stoke
Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle
aston villa 1-2 Tottenham
hull city 1-2 Tottenham
Tottenham 2-1 burnley
Tottenham 2-1 everton.

Man united 2-1 stoke
Southampton 1-2 man united
man united 2-1 west ham
west brom 2-2 man united
arsenal 1-2 man united


as we can see here quite big over 2.5 trends and a lot of 2-1 1-2 results. I quite like 2-1 Tottenham at 13 would be great to get that onside but 2-1 united at 9.8 looks a great lay with a view to trade higher I reckon we see the big 1-2 layer arrive tomorrow and force it upto 10.5 catching loads of traders out in the process forcing them to panic and trade out for a loss. I will stick to my 2-2 at 13/1 though I think it's great value!
Report stevo1 December 29, 2014 12:31 AM GMT
Oh dear
Report smithy91 December 29, 2014 9:16 AM GMT
Can't get every result right unfortunately!  Two good goalkeepers on display yesterday in dea gea and lloris . You can't land a 13/1 shot every week :)
Report smithy91 December 29, 2014 9:21 AM GMT
I went to blackburn vs Middlesbrough at ewood park yesterday was a great game even though was 0-0 and Middlesbrough should of won. A solid defence Middlesbrough have got and four quality strikers in vossen, ****, wilschaaf and patrick bamford. There's no better team than Middlesbrough in the championship and I welcome them to the premier league season next season with a 1st or 2nd placed finish nailed on. Derby and bournemouth are not as good as Middlesbrough imo!
Report smithy91 December 29, 2014 10:01 AM GMT
Liverpool vs swansea seems priced up pretty much as it should be. I reckon for straight betting punters 5.6 on swansea looks big! I'm market making 2-1 Liverpool 9.2-10. This will be one of the most popular scorelines in the market so I'm going to be up against some of the premier leagues biggest correct score traders. I'm front of queue 9.4-9.6 laying whilst backing 9.8!
Report ZEALOT December 29, 2014 2:05 PM GMT
Smithy

How much do you hope to green up for before kick off ?
Report smithy91 December 29, 2014 4:41 PM GMT
hi zealot. I leave all my green on the designated score i'm trading. if I lose overall on the correct score market I like to take an equal red on all scores. I try and get 4-5 scores onside for big premier league live games but it's always that easy. for example today for Liverpool vs Swansea the market isn't really giving enough signals as to whether it wants unders or overs which Is making life difficult.
Report smithy91 December 29, 2014 4:42 PM GMT
sorry that should say it's NOT always that easy!
Report smithy91 December 29, 2014 4:43 PM GMT
i'm hoping for £400 green on 2-1 Liverpool!
Report smithy91 December 29, 2014 4:52 PM GMT
I was sat at 9.8 for 6 hours on 2-1 and only got £450 matched. this was a clear indication the market wanted it and would drop into 9.4 at somepoint which I where it is now. it could go into 9 if punters go crazy. I've seen it before with Liverpool games the 2-1 gets steamrollered when their odds on at home!
Report smithy91 December 29, 2014 5:00 PM GMT
one thing you have in your favour using this pmt tool is betfair don't react until SBObet and pinnacle have moved their lines and as part of the pmt subscription it has pinnacle and sbobet prices right next to each other constantly updating aswell which is a really handy!
Report ZEALOT December 29, 2014 5:18 PM GMT
Cheers  smithy - like the idea of pre match trading on the football .

You must have spent some watching the markets ??
Report ZEALOT December 29, 2014 5:18 PM GMT
^^ time ha
Report smithy91 December 30, 2014 8:51 AM GMT
Yes zealot I've been on betfair since march 2010 so spent a good few years watching the markets. This season though is the first one I feel totally in control of what I am doing.  I have a set criteria now for certain games and just copy the same procedure each time. Eg capital one cup and europa league games are prone to being very volatile so most of my trades are approached from the lay side with a view to back higher up! Also these type of games are lower liquidity so I sometimes pick one scoreline to manipulate pack it out and get matched on both sides. Make sure it's done before team news because anything can happen then and remove the position hopefully by that point the score is nicely greened.  When team news arrives and everything goes a bit crazy I  make new entries then mostly lays to catch the very bottom of a trend before it bounces back up and you can green out!
Report smithy91 December 30, 2014 8:56 AM GMT
I always try and think what scores will the average punter want to be on. So 2-2s and 3-1s are very punter friendly scores and for certain prem games they work perfect by backing them early doors!
Report Peter.Hart December 30, 2014 3:09 PM GMT
Have you moved to another forum smithy? there doesnt seem to be as much activity on this thread anymore with chat between you and ga etc..
Report ZEALOT December 30, 2014 7:13 PM GMT
Cheers smithy - having January off from betting so might have a little look at the footy markets .
Report smithy91 December 31, 2014 11:49 AM GMT
No worries zealot. Yes peter I've moved to another forum kind of! As part of my pre match trading subscription you get acesss to their chatroom were me and other traders chat on throughout the day and share ideas etc. I've learnt a lot more on their than I expected off  other traders massively improving my trades starting from the lay side of the correct score market. Knowing were the holding points are etc where it's unlikely to break through. It cost £220 from august 2014 to june 2015 was the best money I've spent ever I think!
Report smithy91 December 31, 2014 11:55 AM GMT
Looking at the Southampton vs arsenal game tommorow and the 2-2 price at 17.5-18.5 looks right at the top of the range of the market!  Unders already 1.9 I'm not sure they should be much shorter than that. Arsenal's last two away games were 2-1 winners at west ham and a 2-2 draw with Liverpool both these sides are on a similar level to Southampton.  Rather than backing 1-1 @ 7.4 I'd rather take more than double the odds by backing 2-2 17.5-18.5. Southampton normally good for a goal at home likewise arsenal are away so that's were I'm going tommorow!
Report smithy91 January 5, 2015 12:52 PM GMT
Under 2.5 goals at 2.76 is to big tonight for afc wimbledon vs Liverpool here are my reasons why! Raheem sterling has not travelled tonight so although Liverpool's form has picked up recently are we going to see them slump back into old ways with lambert or balotelli stood in the lone strikers role like a lampost with no movement. Sterling won't be around tonight so rodgers needs to find a new method and I'm not convinced he has it! We expect Liverpool to shuffle the pack and wimbledon will be full strength.  If we look at Liverpool's two strikers mario balotelli has scored 1goal in 6 months likewise rickie lambert has 1 goal in 6 months. So is this game definitely going to go over 2.5 like the market suggests? I'm not convinced and from a trading perspective I think we have a good chance of see over 2.5 goals exploding from 1.56 out to 1.68ish which would give us an excellent trade after the team news comes out at 7pm! If we look at previous fixtures from this season where prem teams have played away at lower league opposition I have recorded some of the prices at kickoff. Shrewsbury vs chelsea over 2.5 1.74. Yeovil vs man united over 2.5 1.64 .   Dover vs crystal palace over 2.5 1.9. Here we have wimbledon vs Liverpool over 2.5 1.57. It dosen't make sense when you think rooney and falcao were on show at yeovil Liverpool don't have that firepower tonight. Let's get on unders at 2.76 and hope the markets corrects itself into 2.54 at kickoff! Away favourite unders sentiment it should be!
Report Peter.Hart January 7, 2015 6:30 PM GMT
what are you looking at this weekend smithy?
Report smithy91 January 8, 2015 9:41 AM GMT
Hi peter the focus of my attention this weekend is leicester vs aston villa!! I make leciester a back at 2.26 with a view to trading out around the 2.04-2.1 mark! I think this is a great risk reward trade. I can't see leicester going off above 2.3 so I believe there is a chance we could lose 5 ticks but I think there is potential to gain 20 ticks. Quite simply the asian force behind our markets love leicester city even though they don't win many football matches in the premier league. The markets also do not like aston villa! When these two played each other last month at villa park leceister got ploughed from 3.45 into 2.98. I know because I was on the wrong end of the move and I posted the trade up on here. When leicester played Sunderland at home they went off at 1.97 which was ridiculous and there was no logic in that move as Sunderland had just won 3-1 away at crystal palace whereas leicester had no wins in 9 matches but yet still got backed from 2.2 into 1.97. This time around though leicester have actually hit some decent form and it's not like the asians need any excuse to back them anyway. They lost 2-1 at home to Tottenham were I heard leciester outplayed them. A 1-0 win away at hull followed by an impressive 2-2 draw away at Liverpool.  Then to round it off a 1-0 home win vs Newcastle backed from 2.5 into 2 again instigated by leicester's asian market force!  I expect the money to arrive between 4am-6am on saturday morning and the asians to launch a big assault backing leciester.  Then the english traders will wake up and think wow leicester are short. I'm confident enough even though leicester have already shortened to load up on this as I like risk reward!
Report no moves February 3, 2015 3:25 PM GMT
8th January! Has this thread died?
Report guernseyw February 3, 2015 6:26 PM GMT
afraid so , 1 of the best and imformative threads on the forum .
Hope the guys are making a killing ..
.
Report smithy91 February 4, 2015 12:47 PM GMT
Hi gents. Me and green army tend to be on the prematchtrading.com chatroom thesedays it's hard work to post on both there and  on here as I've mentioned before on this thread. Certainly having this thread and the other one we had before it has helped me loads through my 5 year trading apprenticeship! I'm quite happy to post my ideas for matches in future when I get chance to and  correct score ideas etc!
Report smithy91 February 4, 2015 12:57 PM GMT
The system I'm currently running on correct score basically involves trying to get as many correct scores onside as possible for the live televised game or games for that specific day. I trade pretty much any score I can get my hands on but mainly the scores which are more likely . I rarely trade 3-3s 3-2s 2-3s as they don't happen very often and it seems a bit pointless wasting time with these scores! Having said that everyday provides a big challenge as guessing which way match odds and under/ over 2.5 market moves unlocks the key to finding out which scores will drift and which ones will steam! As a team on pmt chatroom we work together throughout the day to try and solve the jigsaw puzzle!
Report no moves February 12, 2015 4:12 PM GMT
As this forum is dead i'll take over

Backed Arsenal. 1.82 to beat C.Palace on Saturday

Arsenal can always beat useless teams

But don't stress too much  about the why's and wear fors about this particular bet  as we all know the motivation for this thread was to ramp your own partgicular selection. Please would you be so kind as to back my punt so I can lay off at a shorter price

Thankyou
Report Andriy February 12, 2015 4:35 PM GMT
It's a week on Saturday, and given that they play Monaco in the Champions League the following midweek, it's not out of the question that Wenger may rest a key player or two prior to that game. Whilst the backup players may well still win the game (eg whether it Walcott/Rosicky in for Sanchez/Ozil) the market may still drift a few ticks if that's the case. Worth keeping an eye on this for all the European Leagues from now on in prior to Champions League games, eg decent chance of Costa/Aguero being on the bench.
Report YOMOMMA February 12, 2015 5:25 PM GMT
Good thinking Andriy. The plan in this game is to always be one step ahead. Cool
Report no moves February 12, 2015 9:22 PM GMT
You noticed my deliberate mistake AndriyBlush

Keep the good work up boys and whatever else you do don't forget to back my selection early and often.

With all this notice you two will all be on before the smart money arrives.
Report smithy91 February 13, 2015 11:08 AM GMT
Andriy have you not got pmt yet or had a look at it? I landed two scorelines on Wednesday night man united 3-1 burnley had £850 green from a £30 stake but I layed some off when van persie penny went in 82nd minute I won £686. On same night for chelsea vs everton I had 0-0 1-0 2-0 3-1 1-1 0-1. I won £208 on 1-0 chelsea.  Layed 7.2 backed 7.4. Just putting money down the night before the game to get to the front of the queue!
Report smithy91 February 13, 2015 11:19 AM GMT
West brom vs west ham match betting preview!  This game is going under 2.5 goals for me. I am suprised to see 1.88 being offered for under 2.5 goals. Pulis vs allardyce are the under 2.5 defensive masters should be 1.75 unders gents!  Hull vs villa the other night unders 1.53 :D. I appreciate we have berahino , sakho and valencia on display who can obviously score but I fancy defences to be on top for this game. Let's look at west ham's fa cup run so far. 1-1 away to everton then 1-1 again for the replay and 1-0 winners away to bristol city. They have also just drawn 0-0 away to Southampton in the league.  This is a genuine chance for both teams to get to the final.  Man united can be beaten they are a bobbins outfit and there manager dosen't know how to field his fantasy football team. Arsenal won it last year so chances are they'll slip up this time. I reckon 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-1 one of those scores it will be at full time for west brom vs west ham. My mate has queue jumped me on 0-0 @ 11.5 I'm sitting at 12. So my plan is now to catch the 0-0 when it comes down with 10 and 10.5 lays. I've got 1-1 blockers on at 7.4-7.6 aswell . 1-1 has a huge chance here! Good game this to make it pay :)
Report smithy91 February 13, 2015 11:33 AM GMT
0-0 into 10.5 west brom vs west ham they know :cool:]
Report Andriy February 13, 2015 11:45 AM GMT
"Andriy have you not got pmt yet or had a look at it?"

don't need to, i've got my own model
Report smithy91 February 13, 2015 11:51 AM GMT
Nice one. Do you use your model to trade correct score?  What price does your model have for west brom vs west ham 1-1 mine says 7.51 :)
Report Andriy February 13, 2015 12:06 PM GMT
7.57
Report smithy91 February 13, 2015 12:17 PM GMT
Interesting andriy :) not all correct score markets trade according to the pmt tool I use so you have think for yourself quite a lot. 2-0s can often trade high which means the 2-1 could trade low etc!  I often leave big sums up overnight backing 3-1s. If I have loads matched overnight and get taken on aggressively this tells me that under 2.5 is likely at some stage to come in. If I have little amounts matched chances are I'm in the right position as the bots won't take me on!
Report smithy91 February 13, 2015 12:46 PM GMT
I left 1k back up 3-1 man united at 13.5 vs burnley not a single penny matched overnight.  I left 1k back up  at 14.5 3-1 Chelsea vs everton I had £600 matched overnight.  This instantly told me I was in the wrong place on 3-1 chelsea you don't get sums like that matched overnight unless your in the wrong place. This was the key indicator for me though to crack the market  I knew then that either Chelsea were going to drift or under 2.5 would shorten or quite possibly both! I then based all my trades on these thoughts!  It took right until team news though for chelsea to drift as fabregas and oscar two key influential market players were on the bench. 1.36 out to 1.4 Chelsea was a small drift but proved very effective for me!
Report smithy91 February 13, 2015 4:24 PM GMT
Just been spending my day off work doing some studying and I think I've got a very strong case for unders to get backed tommorow west brom vs west ham.  Had a look at past results and the 1-1 is a very common scoreline for west ham especially in away games. Swansea vs west ham 1-1 Sunderland vs west ham 1-1 westham vs man united 1-1 west ham vs west brom 1-1 and they also drew twice 1-1 with everton in the 3rd round of the fa cup in both ties as it went to a replay which they won on penalties.  Since pulis took over only one game has gone over 2.5 at the hawthorns and that was a 3-0 loss to Tottenham who look mightily impressive on current form. The movement of the front four kane, lamela, dembele and eriksen is scintillating at times. Dembele is one of my favourite players when he does that drop of the shoulder  he's a class act I  try and model my own game on him when I play in midfield. Anyway back on topic no shame in west brom losing to Tottenham I can't see west ham going there and winning 3-0! I just can't see how the current unders price at 1.87 goes any bigger. Pinny have just cut the under 2.5 into 1.78 now that could be a significant move. If SBOBET follow suit it's time to take a huge chunk of unders. Looks a strong risk reward trade this!!!
Report no moves February 13, 2015 10:09 PM GMT
2 months ago Smithy

"I've been testing something out during the last month aswell. Everytime I'm set in position I post what score I'm on so everyone on the chatroom can see. Somebody puts a stack right behind me in the queue and follows me in. I'm guessing it's some of the beginner traders because it seems to happen everytime".
Report smithy91 February 14, 2015 6:59 AM GMT
Sbobet 1.86 into 1.78 overnight west brom vs west ham unders I'm pretty sure the unders bears are arriving now for this one at somepoint this morning.  My exit point is around 1.75 from initial 1.85-1.89 entry! Hopefully correct scores to follow suit aswell!
Report smithy91 February 14, 2015 9:18 AM GMT
Three cuts already now from sbobet 1.86 into 1.73 unders must be some big money in asia going on. I reckon will be 1.75 on betfair soon once people wake up. Get ready to attack the 0-0 aswell at 10.5. On 1-0 west ham at  11 also.  Will be goosed if overs get backed now :D
Report YOMOMMA February 14, 2015 10:01 AM GMT
Smithy91 have you got nothing better to do than bet on West Brom v West Ham in the FA Cup fgs? There's a cricket World Cup just started and you can lay England every match and outright for free money.
Report no moves February 15, 2015 5:09 PM GMT

"Backed Arsenal. 1.82 to beat C.Palace on Saturday

Arsenal can always beat useless teams"


Last priced matched 1.76, get on while you still can!
Report no moves February 22, 2015 6:34 PM GMT
I hate to tell you I told you so but I did, so boo sucks.
Report smithy91 February 27, 2015 2:20 PM GMT
Quick update from me! Had a roller coaster ride this week but live to trade another day! On Wednesday arsenal vs monaco game I cancelled £40,000 worth of bets on my mobile phone on correct score market. I cancelled all unmatched bets by accident THREE times in one day by accident was a disaster.  First time I'm on my morning break at work market was quiet so I was just updating my positions and noticed my money had evaporated from the Market.  I knew what I'd done so I had to unload the 15k back into the market on loads of different scores.  I'd lost all my queue positions so not good. Then on my dinner break same thing happened again I cancelled all unmatched bets again so had to start from scratch again with a few positions now exposed on the market.  Then before bed on Wednesday night hit the cancel all unmatched bets again on my mobile by mistake and lost all my queue positions this time on besiktas vs Liverpool correct score. Was fuming about this and I partly blame my phone for being slow and the touchscreen not working properly anymore but also the betfair mobile app is designed very poorly. Open bets icon is right next to the cancel all unmatched icon and I place around 100 bets a day on correct score so I'm constantly updating my positions throughout the day! Only takes a misclick and your 15k evaporates from the market. I've just ordered the samsung S5 today so hopefully this will solve the problem as it should be much quicker which will hopefully help me avoid cancelling all my bets by mistake!
Report smithy91 February 27, 2015 2:38 PM GMT
Liverpool vs man city match betting preview! Not sure where man city price is going they should be 2.5+ here vs a Liverpool side who have lost two games in 20 matches. This is a man city side who have won one in the last six matches so there hardly coming here in great form. They shortened 2.56 into 2.4 last night because Liverpool went into extra time vs besiktas but man city were chasing barcelona around for 90 minutes on tuesday night. Man city were 2.7 to win away at Southampton and Liverpool just went to Southampton and won 2-0 so the 2.4 on a man city win has to be the absolute barrier. Surely they can not go shorter. They have not won at anfield since 2003 and since the start of this year Liverpool have the most points gained than any other team. I'm waiting in the wings to lay man city for a risk reward trade at 2.4ish I have them 2.6! For correct score it's all about 2-2 @ 15. Last three games between these two at anfield.  2-2 2-2 and 3-2 win for Liverpool so this fixture tends to produce goals and also when they play at the etihad! The current over 2.5 price is 1.85 and I think that's a good back I have overs 1.75 for this. When Liverpool drew 2-2 with arsenal back in December overs were 1.75 and the 2-2 got smashed into 13.5. That's something to take serious note off as I think we will see a similar move take place for this game. I can't see why unders would shorten pre off apart from the fact the Liverpool have tightened up defensively.  But I don't think that's enough to stop overs from coming in. Bony, aguero,  toure, sterling, and sturridge all on the same pitch and going off the past trends indicate we see goals on sunday!
Report smithy91 March 2, 2015 9:19 AM GMT
Man city 2.3 backers]Laugh
Report smithy91 March 2, 2015 9:22 AM GMT
Tonight big italian clash roma vs juventus so 1-1 blockers 7-7.2 and same again tommorow for aston villa vs west brom 7-7.2! Need the 0-0 covered aswell for villa vs west brom when pulis is around!  Get green before the off and turn the telly off will be dreadful to watch. God knows why bt have chosen this for the live game]Cry
Report no moves March 21, 2015 5:41 PM GMT
tumbleweed
Report JK257 May 10, 2015 6:12 PM BST
Well... it's dying on its arse isn't it? They've self destructed. The quality of the mobile app just tops it off. As if the non existent liquidity alone isn't bad enough.
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