Football trading

smithy had a cracking thread going, read from page one but ignore the last 20 pages or so when it started getting trolled..seriously have a look

DON'T DO IT! I read it - it was the biggest waste of 2-3 hours of my life. I was literally in tears by the end of it with the worst headache ever.

Will do sweet, just playing Czech cup matches at moment.

That bad Y?

There's nothing useful on there at all. It's just full of people after timing and fake profit and loss statements.

Usual stuff for Betfair then

lol I suppose so.

I might browse through later tonight.

form your own opinions shane.have a look

by the way yomamma i would be interested if you could pinpoint for me the fake profit and loss statements..it shouldnt be too difficult if there on there..il give you a little time

Will do, only remember one thread re trading that was of any use in all my years on here.

trust me shane you will find it of interest

I don't see the need to put up profit and loss statements as it is so easy to fake.

sweet - give two points made on that thread which is useful to know which isn't common knowledge.

if you couldnt find two points then im afraid there really is no hope whatsoever  (head in hands man)

shane don't do it trust me. You'll end up with a nasty headache. It belongs on the chit chat forum.

going round in circles here, its irrelivant anyway, the thread is as good as dead and yet another good forumite is hounded off the forum..

Who's left? I haven't read the last 40 odd pages.

SCOM I don't want to take sides but the OP is asking for strategies to discuss. I've read back a bit of the thread and I cannot find any discussion on strategies. Only guesses and aftertiming. The thread made me study the movements so it had a purpose. Without being disrespectful I learnt more in two weeks on my own than some of them will ever learn.

So my advice to the OP is do your own analysis, have price parameters and find out why the prices freefall. Watch the markets regularly at consistent intervals. Team news is an essential ingredient, but sometimes the moves are unexplainable. I think it can be done mind.

I wouldn't call it trading though, I would call it betting on a price movement in exactly the same way as outcome betting. If you aim for more than your stop loss, you are looking for a 60% strike-rate. I'm talking pre-off here, you need to be putting big money down to make it worthwhile.

One question I asked and obviously wasn't answered was: When you put 3k into the market, do you see immediate resistance? Trap bettors (BF or associates IMO) can make it look easy on paper but won't let you grab a penny in reality. I guess the only way to find out is to try. I'l let you know in January.

it depends how liquid the market was that youre putting your 3k into....if its high liquidity it will hardly cause a ripple but if its a lowliq market, then 3k is the level of sum that would make people sit up and take notice

SCOM the strangest thing about this is that aftertiming is a non issue - we're all anonymous so who really cares - seems to me that the only reason an "aftertimer" posts is to say "look how clever I am" - i'm not interested how clever i am , i'm interested in making piles of cash so the 50% of my time i currently spend giving tax advice i can pack in

at first i had to look up aftertiming on google to find out what it meant & i still have no idea why someone betting or trading would do this, as i say you're anonymous and it wastes your time & who cares

i dont think you or smithy aftertimed cos most of the trades you posted them up front , i think it was a case of jealousy cos you're making money whereas those who will never do this like kenny & henry or whatevere his name was never will , so they just spoil

whatever, yourself and smithy excepted , didn't get much useful feedback , still looking for somewhere where people are interested in making money rather than playing silly beggars

exactly..the whole point was pre match trading and greening up, ok the odd aftertime but who cares, and for every aftertiming success there was an aftertiming loss as well so wheres the harm?

The aftertimers club hi-jacking this thread now.

Green Army, SCOM, and Smithy = Noob jokers wanting to play with the big boys

did you really just accuse someone of hijacking a thread....jeeeeez

bet my football tips, getting lots of 0-0s at moment.

Green Army, SCOM, and Smithy = Noob jokers wanting to play with the big boys



i think this sentence fully exposes your agenda tbh

Sorry I don't understand SCOM
Is that supposed be a "joke"?
If it is then it's not a very good one

nah just i got a very interesting email from a very big player on here..and lets say its all starting to make perfect sense now..ok thats me out of this thread too but be sure to follow me elsewhere ..i know you will

Of course you did

You're aware this is a forum yes?
I was (again) just responding to a post from your cretinous pal Green Army.
It was you that jumped on my back was it not?

oh thats strange hejik as this was your very first post on this thread.....

The aftertimers club hi-jacking this thread now.

Green Army, SCOM, and Smithy = Noob jokers wanting to play with the big boys

au revoir

Would you disagree with that statement SCOM?

I rest my case SCOM , he's not interested in winning money , just wants to gossip like a 12 year old in the girls toilets -

& if we were aftertiming henny why do you care ? why would you spend a huge amount of your life on an anonymous forum accusing someone of this , is there really no better way of passing the hours away, i'm serious , there are people who can help - really mate, talk to someone soon

Here's the other Joker now.
You're not funny either GA.
It would appear you also can't read very well.


Clearly I am not the only person who thinks you're all clowns.
The only people who don't are you 3 and about 2 other "believers"

Even people who followed the thread now think you are after-timing clowns with not a clue between you. Yet you all seem to think you had this amazingly advanced and profitable thread going

Not content with making up bets, SCOM is now making up emails aswell.
Where does it end?


Green Army - will you please answer the very simple questions that I asked you on the other thread.
If not, can you please state whether you are unwilling or unable to do so.

Thanks

ladies and gentlemen you are now witnessing MELTDOWN before your very eyes

having fun me SCOM

embarrassed for you mate....seriously

Nov 29, 2012 -- 1:02PM, sweetchildofmine wrote:

embarrassed for you mate....seriously

not sure why since it would appear almost everybody on the forum is of the same opinion as me

delusional as well..oh dear

says the chap inventing bets and emails to look "cool" on an internet forum

you make some very bold statements without a shred of proof....does this forum really mean this much to you? if it does, fair do's, it just smacks of well it just seems sad and not at all healthy, but hey i'll let you get on with it and i'll take comfort in the fact if youre following me around like a love sick puppy, it means youre leaving others alone..enjoy your ermm life?

you can't help but post SCOM
the burden of proof lies with the ones making claims of bold profits

"£1000 a week profit thread" states smithy and doesn't pay PC does he?

no you're right henry you deserve a full reply only i blocked you and i cant be bothered to look back - so whjat was the question ?

You didn't block me but I'll humour you

1.) What's more likely?

a) "Green Army" is right and the entire market has it wrong after MILLIONS and MILLIONS of pounds exchanged hands worldwide.

or

b) After MILLIONS AND MILLIONS of pounds exchanged hands worldwide, the market has found it's level and in fact "Green Army" is wrong





2.)Do you believe the fact there are more goals in Barcelona matches than Roma matches means that the 0-0 should therefore be shorter on Barcelona matches?

Back to the original poster and the general statement "football trading".
Overall i'd say its difficult to "trade" in football; it doesn't have the ebb and flow that cricket, tennis, NFL (and presumably some others) have - where the prices flucuate quite frequently, and quite sharply.

I also found "trading" on football for me is hoping a goal was/wasn't scored within a set period so I could green out, and place percentage of green on something with some decent odds. Not exactly trading, but the only way I make it pay - always with small amounts. Combination of small wins, followed by a biggish loss but overall it doesn't exceed the total of the combined wins. Obviously not my chief focus on here, just a side-job.

Really I'm saying, what is there "trade", is more akin to pure betting.

certainly did block you - i dont lie & dont really understand why anyone would lie - thats the difference between us

anyway,

1) thats easy - i'm always right
2) are we looking at the actuarial "goals" probability in terms of eg the sinclair paradigm, or as a function of a weighted median outcome ?

I'm really asking you to state if you think think these statements are correct Green Army



1) "it doesn't matter who scores the goals for the 0-0 price there are simply more goals in barca games  - around 4.4 v 3.8 for roma and 5.3 v 4.1 if you're looking at away games

I agree the goal expectancy is higher for roma games than barca, my point is that unless somebody knows something we don't then the stats show that these comparative expectations are simply wrong"



2) "it is irrelevant if roma ship more goals for 0-0 if you are referencing avge goals per game, a goal is a goal and its 0-0 no longer, whoever score"


3) "its a simple proposition, in any given game at home away or on the moon there's more goals in barca games than roma games, hence the 0-0 sb lower in roma games, it hasn't been and i have no idea why"






Just a Yes or a No will do
So far your best answer was fairly vague and makes little sense -

"on a saturday afternoon 2 football matches take place , in one game some goals are scored, in the other game no goals are scored , which game ended 0-0 ?"

and i'm saying to you henry , when the mathematical menu is put in front of you , which hors d'oeuvre do you plump for , the wiseman probability trade-off or the delacroix empirical model ?

again you are avoiding the question

cartesian dualists do not dodge issues - i merely wish to understand the anatomical framework that underpins your argument, i mean are we arguing this in the context of vectors or vortexes, its your call

it's not an argument it's a question
it requires a "Yes " or a "No"

I appreciate your position is difficult because you will look an idiot if you say "yes" and you can't say "no"
So instead you are attempting to avoid answering altogether

Nov 29, 2012 -- 2:02PM, Wallflower wrote:

Back to the original poster and the general statement "football trading".Overall i'd say its difficult to "trade" in football; it doesn't have the ebb and flow that cricket, tennis, NFL (and presumably some others) have - where the prices flucuate quite frequently, and quite sharply.I also found "trading" on football for me is hoping a goal was/wasn't scored within a set period so I could green out, and place percentage of green on something with some decent odds. Not exactly trading, but the only way I make it pay - always with small amounts. Combination of small wins, followed by a biggish loss but overall it doesn't exceed the total of the combined wins. Obviously not my chief focus on here, just a side-job.Really I'm saying, what is there "trade", is more akin to pure betting.

If you're letting it go in-play, it is a bet. Just because you're looking to trade out means you're simply creating a different bet. E.g. If you back Under 2.5 at for argument sake 2 and trade out after 15 minutes, all you're doing is creating a 1.xx bet that there are no goals in 15 minutes where 1.xx is the differential of 2 to the price at 15 minutes.

For me trading is pre-play when fewer parameters are in-play bar team news, weather, or the like, depending on your sport.

shanedontbegreedy
sticktothemysterysystem

ok henry , here goes , .... err , what was the question again ?

Green Army
Biggest chancer on the forum


http://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/29109559/league-1-play-offs-sheff-utd-30---huddersfield-345?liveView=0

hejik and kenilworth, I would like to thank you for exposing these frauds. If it wasn't for your intervention the muppets would have gone on and on with the guesswork, aftertiming, fake P&L's and blatant lying for another 100 odd pages (with little to none serious analysis). You have also probably saved some lurkers and newbies from following the bets they put up and losing a lot of money.

Thanks Yomomma

Sometimes it IS important to make a point of things
Have to ignore the abuse you get from them and treat it as a natural reaction to being exposed

In all fairness, I only carried on what Kenilworth started so any credit should go to him really

am i missing something here? werent yommamma and hejik proven to be the same poster several months ago?

where was this SCOM
please show the thread and/or explain how this proof came about
pathetic lies now
clearly something to hide here
shameful stuff

hejik...

Not content with making up bets, SCOM is now making up emails aswell.
Where does it end?


you talk of proof? hmm dont like it when the shoes on the other foot?

it seems only certain threads are allowed to flourish only if they have been approved by a small handful of sour moaners.

if they dont approve they infest it with ****. case in point.

WTF!

What has any of this got to do with correct score strategies?

I've had varying degrees of success with trading correct scores pre-off. I think if you put enough time into studying the correct score market you can work out patterns , and you can learn to predict certain scores which odds will come down in .
e/g last year when Barcelona played away the odds for 0-1 and 0-2 would drift out to about 11.5 through the day and then an hour before kick-off they would come back down to about 9. If you can get good at predicting the right scores to come in you can set yourself up some nice easy trades. It takes a lot of time staring at a page of numbers and watching for movements which is why I don't do it as much now.