General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Ok so here goes!
If say you were hitting 80% of odds of approx 1.8 how would you turn this into multiple profit?
i.e 4 out of 5 bets are essentially winners. So in theory with 8 out of 10 right how would you place your bets in terms of mutiples staking?
I'm in no way saying I correctly guess that because put frankly I really dont but if you were succesfully doing the above what would be the best way of using a small bank, lets say a tenner as hyperthetical monies!?
Any workings out with your post would be great, had a few hours spare and just can't get my head round it!
If say you were hitting 80% of odds of approx 1.8 how would you turn this into multiple profit?
i.e 4 out of 5 bets are essentially winners. So in theory with 8 out of 10 right how would you place your bets in terms of mutiples staking?
I'm in no way saying I correctly guess that because put frankly I really dont but if you were succesfully doing the above what would be the best way of using a small bank, lets say a tenner as hyperthetical monies!?
Any workings out with your post would be great, had a few hours spare and just can't get my head round it!
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 26
|
By:
Wow where to start...
It's 'hypothetical'. Seeing as this is purely hypothetical, as it would have to be... I'd just use Kelly! Bye. |
|
By:
You what what? I don't follow?
|
|
By:
Realistically, if your S/R% was anything close to that, at those odds, consistently -- which it isn't -- then you should be wagering around half of your bank every single wager.
But, your bank will not last any kind of losing run like that and most people won't stake more than 1-5% of their total bank per bet so... I'd advise around 25-50p a bet. |
|
By:
Right ok I see! (and no it so isn't close!) You say kelly? is that the betting theory?
|
|
By:
Google Kelly criterion, it's widely accepted as the best method to make your bank grow. It's quite aggressive and you need to be quite confident about the odds you're taking and their true value, however.
|
|
By:
much appreciated info, I will have a look see
 |
|
By:
Actually I've just misread your post. The fact you get 4/5 winners a lot is entirely irrelevant. How often do you get 5/5 winners with your 1.80 odds approx?
|
|
By:
SuperTri
You must surely know it doesn't ever work this way in reality. If you're taking odds of 1.8 then you WILL win 55% of the time over 1000's and 10000's of bets. I know it's hypothetical but it surely has to be realistic aswell. If you're serious, no need to worry. If you have 80% strike rate backing 55% shots you will be millionaire in no time at all |
|
By:
Haha thanks for the post hejik. I'm talking non pressure picks, looking at stats form results ect building up a picture and looking for 'value' but obviously without the cash to go with it so it's a non pressure situation , money isn't swaying the desicion... no risk no reward if you will.
In reality to be totally honest no...I wouldn't expect it to be a plausable estimate in terms of % but it was more of a if you were going to attempt that 4 out of 5 with a possibilty of 5 out 5 what would be the best plan for staking? I like to look into these things you see....bordom does wonderful things! And Crow, 5 out 5?? not alot!!! |
|
By:
I don't really understand the question I don't think.
Forgive me |
|
By:
haha no worries! it's hard to explain in text!!
|
|
By:
ST if you use say 2% of your bank each bet surely over time that would grow into a very large bank i.e 2% = 20p to start once say bank doubles 2% = 40p and so on, takes patience lots of it but it does get their eventually, or have i misread your question
|
|
By:
Thats half the question cunning (probably be easier that way!), the other being it terms of having blocks of multiples. Say for instance having a group of 7 and with (if it was possible an 80% strike rate) that should mean at least 5 out of 7, I was just wondering how would be best to stake with say a 5 fold or a saver on 4 risk it on 6 ect. Yeh I don't really know what i'm on about now...
|
|
By:
used to work these things out on wet winter nights also, so i know what starts clear in ur mind can become blurred when explaining it
|
|
By:
7 selections 64 bets
1) 7 fold @ 25p 7) 6 folds @ 50p 21) 5 folds @ £1.25p 35) 4 fold @ £2 is that what ur after in theory to £100 stake |
|
By:
20.98 x 5 =104.90
37.76 x 1= 37.76 total 142.66 going on your theory of sucess with much larger wins if you exceed your theory |
|
By:
20.98 x 5 =104.90
37.76 x 1= 23.61 total 128.51 correction on returns giving you 28.5% profit if theory correct of course if you exceed theory much larger returns |
|
By:
20.98 x 5 =104.90
23.61 x 1= 23.61 total 128.51 correction on returns giving you 28.5% profit if theory correct of course if you exceed theory much larger returns not concentrating still correcting grrrr |
|
By:
going to eat, concentration wanders when hungry lol
not sure if this is what your looking for in theory obviously |
|
By:
OR:
Split your 7 picks into 2 groups A(3) B(4) Perm any 2 from A with any 3 from B equals 12 5somes Perm all 3 from A with any 3 from B equals 4 6somes Plus a roll up all 7 17 bets in all |
|
By:
Much appreciated effort there CP, that was what I was trying to get down in my post, i'll have a proper look in a bit as I need a pen and a bit of paper!! Racks your brains when you try and work out staking plans, which is ironoic really as it's probably the most important part of the process (apart from the pick).
Cheers also for the post Dunter1 will have a look at that one too, takes me a while to work these things out! |
|
By:
Right I managed to have a look at Cp's (took me ages to figure it out) but I understand it fully now......I think
 Edited it slightly now im getting the hang of this, so.... Roughly if all bets out of the 7 roughly equated to 1.8 then editing the staking plan to £10 with slightly different staking and dropping the 4 fold I got this....emphesis on getting 6 out of 7 so it would be a case of multiple groups perhaps as stated above (again very sketchy maths going on here) £10 40p on 5 folds (the new saver/re bet in effect....i.e - the o.2 off the bet) 20p on 6 folds 20p on the 7 fold which would mean (correct me if im wayyyyy off) £7 on the 5 fold £50 if it were the 6 fold and £200 odd if it was the full whammy.... Very approx workings but gives an idea! Small matter of getting 5 6 or 7 out of 7 still. Just helps me get my head about what if's! |
|
By:
just seen reply g.lad to have helped ....if it did
|
|
By:
It did very much so! muchos appreciated
|
|
By:
super tri
on your workings i get this 10.13 6 fold 7.58 5 fold 18.23 7 up |
|
By:
I double checked and and i think I know where were going wrong! The 5 fold is right on. The 6 fold is alot more because it's the 6 fold added to all the winning 5 fold combonations including the 6th winner (hence the approx 50 quid) and then then full whammy is all of them added up including all the 5 and 6 fold lines (plus the individual single 7 fold line of like around 18quid as you say above) so all in total is around 200?
I made around 20 selections of 1.8 - 1.9ish last week and 16 of them came in winners! so pretty much 80% However........I did the same thing this week but on 6 choices and so far out of 4 of them 3 lost and one was a 'Push' haha! Thats how the game goes tho! Why it's all pretty much hyperthetical or pence! |