How to predict which way the odds will go?

Make records of how certain teams are backed and trends will develop...

and read this thread:
http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/28978907/am-i-the-youngest-formumite-on-here

hi I asked the same question last year like andriy said view that thread we do exactly what you do ! :)

Many thanks for your answers

Winner,there can be several reasons for movements which include team news, trends,historical data and in the case of Liverpool....how much Asian money is being punted!

Winner,there can be several reasons for movements which include team news, trends,historical data and in the case of Liverpool....how much Asian money is being punted!

ill second or third whats been said..set aside a good few hours and read smithys thread from day one..u wont regret it

This has to be the free-est money ever invented.

Ok I will help you . Anyone can tell you why the prices move either way in fact they have see above posts . You asked how can you predict these movements and trade as you say long before kick off.

Not many can do this .

Couple of things volume moves markets ie only money traded on the graphs will move markets either way , so the first clue is the money graphs on each market but that is only the start. I use software to try and predict the correct movements to trade these movements , they are based on bell graphs [curve] look these up ]
they are the clue you need.

So much more but this is a start

The simple answer is there is no way to know.

Odds changes on Betfair frequently mirror trends on the bookies sites. So if punters throw money onto a team on the bookies, they reduce their odds, then Betfair's odds reduce because people take advantage of the difference, and then the market odds here go in a specific direction.

Any injury news, players not in the team etc., that type of thing can affect markets.

Additionally, if a big favourite has just won etc. people often think that this means the next favourite is not going to etc. and so bet against them, pushing the odds up.

There are a number of sites which show 'steamers' and 'drifters' which are the changes in odds for different periods. They are useful sometimes to see the early market changes, but again, not completely predictable from those.

Sat     03/11/12     PRL     Manchester United     2 - 1     Arsenal

Sat     03/11/12     BUN     Hoffenheim     3 - 2     Schalke 04


CL GAME TUESDAY -Schalke 04     19 : 45     Arsenal
========================================================================================


Sat     03/11/12     LI1     PSG     1 - 2     Saint-Étienne    

CL GAME TUESDAY    UCL     PSG     19 : 45     Dinamo Zagreb
===========================================================================================

Sat     03/11/12     BUN     Borussia Dortmund     0 - 0     Stuttgart    

CL GAME TUESDAY    UCL     Real Madrid     19 : 45     Borussia Dortmund
============================================================================================

Sat     03/11/12     LI1     Troyes     1 - 1     Montpellier    


CL GAME TUESDAY     UCL     Olympiakos Piraeus     19 : 45     Montpellier
==============================================================================================

Sat     03/11/12     PRD     Málaga     1 - 2     Rayo Vallecano

CL GAME TUESDAY     UCL     Milan     19 : 45     Málaga
==============================================================================================

Sat     03/11/12     PRL     West Ham United     0 - 0     Manchester City
Sat     03/11/12     ERE     Ajax     0 - 2     Vitesse   


CL GAME TUESDAY    UCL     Manchester City     19 : 45     Ajax
===============================================================================================


Enough clues above re the CL factor effecting teams prior to a match.

GL with quest....

Srichaphan or Ancic? Date Joined: 18 May 03
Add contact | Send message When: 05 Nov 12 22:41

The above poster provided the only sensible answer. If
anyone knew the answer to the moves, he or she would be
a millionaire in a very shoert time.

kenilworth • November 5, 2012 11:45 PM GMT

If anyone knew the answer to the moves, he or she would be
a millionaire in a very shoert time.

Well said. Aftertiming and posting up fake profit and loss statements doesn't.

hundreds of reasons, you think of any you like, and everyone will be correct @ sometime or other .

Many thanks for all your replys, it seems that some of you believe it can be done, and others certainly do not.  I will keep studying this and hope to find an edge.  I don't think you would become a "millionaire" even if you could predict fairly accurately the moves, it would be small profits per each sucessful trade, unless you can afford large stakes.

it can be done ..you just need to be right more often than you are wrong..sounds simplistic, but its true

A ridiculous answer. A simplistic solution
from a simple man.

youre a very bitter man kenny boy..whys that? what advice would your hero kevin pullein give do you think? oh i know ''NO BET RECCOMENDED''

Nov 6, 2012 -- 8:07AM, winnertakesitall wrote:

Many thanks for all your replys, it seems that some of you believe it can be done, and others certainly do not.

I'm sure it is possible and I'm sure many people are successful at trading football matches pre off but don't believe everything you read on here.

Sat     03/11/12     PRL     Manchester United     2 - 1     Arsenal

Sat     03/11/12     BUN     Hoffenheim     3 - 2     Schalke 04


CL GAME TUESDAY -Schalke 04     19 : 45     Arsenal

[b]ARSENAL WINNING  AT HT...... SCORED.[/b]
========================================================================================


Sat     03/11/12     LI1     PSG     1 - 2     Saint-Étienne   

CL GAME TUESDAY    UCL     PSG     19 : 45     Dinamo Zagreb


PSG WINNING HT...SCORED.
===========================================================================================

Sat     03/11/12     BUN     Borussia Dortmund     0 - 0     Stuttgart   

CL GAME TUESDAY    UCL     Real Madrid     19 : 45     Borussia Dortmund


DORTMUND WINNING AT HT...SCORED.
============================================================================================

Sat     03/11/12     LI1     Troyes     1 - 1     Montpellier   


CL GAME TUESDAY     UCL     Olympiakos Piraeus     19 : 45     Montpellier


MONTPELLIER LOSING HT.....AND NOT SCORED....YET!
==============================================================================================

Sat     03/11/12     PRD     Málaga     1 - 2     Rayo Vallecano

CL GAME TUESDAY     UCL     Milan     19 : 45     Málaga
==============================================================================================

Sat     03/11/12     PRL     West Ham United     0 - 0     Manchester City
Sat     03/11/12     ERE     Ajax     0 - 2     Vitesse   


CL GAME TUESDAY    UCL     Manchester City     19 : 45     Ajax


AJAX WINNING AT HT...AND SCORED.
======================================================


CLUES are always there...before CL games and after/during............................

Whether K believes it or not...........................

MAN CITY SCORED AS WELL!.....

Joined: 26 Aug 07 | Topic/replies: 10,637 | Blogger: sweetchildofmine's blog
youre a very bitter man kenny boy..whys that? what advice would your hero kevin pullein give do you think? oh i know ''NO BET RECCOMENDED''

Oh HARRY, can't you come up with something more original
than that ? Stupid boy.

  Look like you have been making a fool of yourself all day...I will let you continue doing so

what is with the BOLD font....have you been having computer lessons at the community centre?

Nothing "wrong" with "No Bet Recommended"...........as long as based on reasoning and value in bet.

No idea who KP is...........but K must rate him as being a pretty consistently "good" bet adviser......and I'm sure he won't do no bets on such recommendations "all the time".....

FT     Schalke 04     2 - 2     Arsenal ARSENAL DID NOT LOSE AND SCORED.

FT     PSG     4 - 0     Dinamo Zagreb     PSG  DID NOT LOSE AND SCORED
FT     Olympiakos Piraeus     3 - 1     Montpellier     MONTPELLIER LOST BUT SCORED

FT     Milan     1 - 1     Málaga MALAGA DID NOT LOSE AND SCORED
FT     Manchester City     2 - 2     Ajax     BOTH TEAMS DID NOT LOSE AND SCORED.
FT     Real Madrid     2 - 2     Borussia Dortmund BD DID NOT LOSE AND SCORED

===============================================================================================

Generally the teams that did badly...ie not winning in game BEFORE CL game.......SCORED and generally DID NOT LOSE!

Some may think this is a BLIP ...and not a FACTOR to use re weighing up bets......but I don't care re their views......as facts are facts.

DFC, thank you for those kind words.

Wed     07/11/12     Chelsea     19 : 45     Shakhtar Donetsk        


Sat     03/11/12     PRL     Swansea City     1 - 1     Chelsea


CHELSEA never won in last match.....so likely to score and win IMO. tonight.
==============================================================
        CFR Cluj     19 : 45     Galatasaray        


NO IDEA HOW THIS WORKS OUT!
=============================================================
        Sporting Braga     19 : 45     Manchester United        

COULD GO EITHER WAY!...NO CLUES RE LAST MATCH PLAYED BY EITHER.
=================================================================
        Juventus     19 : 45     Nordsjælland    

Sat     03/11/12     SEA     Juventus     1 - 3     Internazionale


JUVE lost last match...and likely to score and win tonight.
=====================================================================



        Celtic     19 : 45     Barcelona

Sun     04/11/12     PRL     Dundee United     2 - 2     Celtic


CELTIC NEVER WON IN LAST MATCH...AND LIKELY TO SCORE ....BUT BARCA SHOULD WIN THIS EVENTUALLY....THOUGH MIGHT TAKE A PENALTY TO DO SO.
========================================================================


WILL CLUES OF LAST MATCHES PLAYED HELP WITH GUESSES ON TONIGHT'S GAMES......SOON SEE

This morning i backed Liverpool in the match odds against Anzhi for 1k @ 5.0, seemed high to me, this afternoon i layed them for £1041.67 @ 4.8 giving me a £41.67 green book :-)  Annoyingly they then went down to 4.6 which would have meant a green book of £86.96 but hey my profit was already made.  I also did a similar thing with 2.5 goals market making a £15.70 green book, all this done hours before before kick off.  It can be done but can anyone keep repeating this to make consistent profits.

Been reading smithy91 thread a lot and some really interesting stuff on there.  Does anyone solely use this type a trade and make regular money?

Regards to all.

The silence is deafening.

kenilworth 05 Nov 12 23:45 Joined: 04 Nov 05 | Topic/replies: 10,140 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
Srichaphan or Ancic? Date Joined: 18 May 03
Add contact | Send message When: 05 Nov 12 22:41

The above poster provided the only sensible answer. If
anyone knew the answer to the moves, he or she would be
a millionaire in a very shoert time.

I don't think it's really about 'knowing' the answer, rather it's about getting a little closer to it than the crowd. That's what gives a statistical edge. For example if you predicted moves correctly 50% of the time, and you make a bit more when you're right than when you're wrong. Some will be able to predict much more accurately than this.

thats a great post investor...if youre right more often than youre wrong as long as the profit from being right is more than the cumulative losses from being wrong, then you'll stay ahead of the game

...if youre right more often than youre wrong as long as the profit from being right is more than the cumulative losses from being wrong, then you'll stay ahead of the game

I don't suppose anyone would have thought that. Is that not what betting is about ?

look at all the rubbish above .. of course if you could predict which way markets move you would be minted ! If you don't know that you are doomed pack up .

Read between the lines "Winner" in the posters replies some are bitter and obv losing big time on here they have blinkers on cannot believe any one is doing ok .

No one can predict the movements 100% but there are tools that can help and I gave you that info

just ignore the negativity...i'll be soon investigating the software options..the weight of money graphs displayed on screen in gruss are certainly very appealling as a trader

kenilworth
Date Joined:     04 Nov 05
Add contact | Send message
09 Nov 12 08:50 Joined: 04 Nov 05 | Topic/replies: 10,181 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
...if youre right more often than youre wrong as long as the profit from being right is more than the cumulative losses from being wrong, then you'll stay ahead of the game

I don't suppose anyone would have thought that. Is that not what betting is about ?

Indeed, I'm saying there is no difference between being successful at trend following or any other type of betting: Just because you have an edge, doesn't mean you'll become a 'millionaire in a very short time'.

Investor2, sorry if my post may have seemed a bit sarky but still
not sure about your clarification. Maybe it's me being a bit stupid
again.