General Betting
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May be of interest to some on here.
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http://www.radiotimes.com/episode/sm5k2/tails-you-win-the-science-of-chance
Are you anxious to know the odds of your dying today? This engaging documentary on the mysterious workings of chance and the maths of probability will tell you – one in a million, if you’re really curious. Even if you just want to know if it’s going to rain the minute you step outside, it can help with that, too.
Avuncular Professor David Spiegelhalter uses a series of fun examples – going skydiving, reading the “most boring book in the world” – to bring to life how humans learnt about chance, tried to conquer it and predict the future. It’s probably worth watching.
About this programme
Professor David Spiegelhalter tries to get to grips with chance and how it works. He tackles such questions as whether people are wise to take an umbrella when they go out, to ways of maximising the chances of living to 100, as he tries to establish if luck and fate are embedded in the fabric of the universe. Along the way, he discovers hidden patterns and shapes in a book written exclusively with numbers and explains why going sky-diving only marginally increases his risk of dying in 2012.
.
http://www.radiotimes.com/episode/sm5k2/tails-you-win-the-science-of-chance
Are you anxious to know the odds of your dying today? This engaging documentary on the mysterious workings of chance and the maths of probability will tell you – one in a million, if you’re really curious. Even if you just want to know if it’s going to rain the minute you step outside, it can help with that, too.
Avuncular Professor David Spiegelhalter uses a series of fun examples – going skydiving, reading the “most boring book in the world” – to bring to life how humans learnt about chance, tried to conquer it and predict the future. It’s probably worth watching.
About this programme
Professor David Spiegelhalter tries to get to grips with chance and how it works. He tackles such questions as whether people are wise to take an umbrella when they go out, to ways of maximising the chances of living to 100, as he tries to establish if luck and fate are embedded in the fabric of the universe. Along the way, he discovers hidden patterns and shapes in a book written exclusively with numbers and explains why going sky-diving only marginally increases his risk of dying in 2012.
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One in a million chance of dying today can't be correct, it sounds very good if you're 95, not so good if you're 21.
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What an odd name - Prof. David "Mirror-holder"
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If you live until you're 80 that's only 29000 days. So an average of 1 in a million is far too low. That would mean only 60 people in the country die each day.
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One in a million gives an annual mortality rate of 0.036%.
Here are some annual mortality rates for the US: infant ( |
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1-4 years 0.034% (1 in 2,941)
5-9 years 0.017% (1 in 5,882) 10-14 years 0.021% (1 in 4,761) 15-19 years 0.069% (1 in 1,449) 20-24 years 0.093% (1 in 1,075) 25-34 years 0.108% (1 in 925) 35-44 years 0.199% (1 in 502) 45-54 years 0.427% (1 in 234) 55-64 years 1.021% (1 in 97) 65-74 years 2.484% (1 in 40) 75-84 years 5.751% (1 in 17) 85+ years %15.475% (1 in 6) |
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but this is including people in the army, people with chronic diseases, junkies etc I assume.
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I wonder if he will tell me to take the money and run...
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