General Betting
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Is your edge constant, fluctuations etc.? I'm curious.
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Year Profit on Turnover
2007 18.31% 2008 6.66% 2009 1.23% 2010 0.41% 2011 0.15% 2012 0.16% That's Betfair manual betting only (no other bookies included and bots not included). All figures are net margin after Commission, Premium Charges, and all other charges made by Betfair. |
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What does long term ROI mean?
Is it over a specified period ~ 6 months - 1 year etc Or is it over a specified number of selections e.g. Your investment placed in an account just for betting = 1k At the end of either of the above you have balance in that account say 1400 which is 400 net profit = 40% ROI Others like profit on turnover or edge. Both of those can be awfully misleading A 3% edge can be a lot more profitable than a 30% edge depending on turnover. If you have the same level stake bets ~ Punter A has a 30% pot, he backs 6 horses a week 50 weeks a year, his stake per bet is 50.00 His total outlay = 6*50*50 = 15000.00 his net profit on turnover (pot) is 30% = 4,500.00 Punter B has a 3% pot, he backs 200 horses a week 50 weeks a year, his stake per bet is also 50.00 His total outlay is 200*50*50 = 500,000.00 his net profit on turnover (pot) is 3% = 15,000 At the end of the day it's the net profit you made that counts. If A and B both compounded, can you imagine how much better of B would be? I place about 100 bets (back and lay) on only one day a week and I average just less than 3% pot and even at that I make nice returns. |
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You can be as detailed as you like, I wasn't looking for specifics. I didn't expect people who placed one bet at EVS in a year to post 100% ROI but maybe that's just my high hopes.
Is that a return you are particularly happy with Investor? I assumed you were pro. |
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Investor will be turning over millions Crowseye, 0.16% will likely be a good amount.
Last year my ROI was around 600%, my POT was around 2%. |
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I must be honest, I meant to ask for ROI on turnover. Long term edge, basically. ROI is indeed misleading when left open broadly.
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To shed some light on the figures I posted, mine are profit on 'bet volume'. That's what Betfair call the total of the backer's stakes of all your bets, which means laying 26 is treated very differently from backing 1.04, and therefore it is not meaningful as a metric standing on its own. An edge as small as mine only works for a trader. If I was betting outright with such a small edge, I could literally be down of hundreds of thousands of bets.
I am happy with that CrowsEye. You can see an obvious trend of dropping margins (at the same time my turnover has grown massively). This year is the first time my margins have not continued going down while turnover has kept growing, and I've started paying PC3, which depresses the margins significantly. Colonell, no I bet at the full odds range from 1.01 to 1000 and every increment in between. Trevh, 600% is great, are you able to bet bigger with that cash, or just withdrawing winnings? The most important metric for me is the compound growth rate of my retained profit (which means deducting absolutely everything including living expenses and computer equipments etc. and counting what I have left in cash. I like to use cash accounting, so any expense, such as purchasing a new computer is just instantly accounted for as a 'loss' rather than a depreciating asset. |
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Investor, yeah I withdraw every week, but at the same time I increase the bank approx every 3 months or so, bank is currently double the size of this time last year. I'm not greedy but I do try to make hay while the sun still shines :)
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I came across Adam Todds figures from a few years ago when trading on the horse racing markets was far easier
http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/8444/adamresults.jpg |
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Thanks buzzer! Love this kind of stuff.
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A few figures won't be looking so healthy after tonight's football gubbings. One chap lost 3 years of winnings (before tonight ROI 20%, after, 0%).
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There were lots of gubbings. Not sure if I can trust a guy who claims to put 3 years winnings on a single bet.
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How does one optain their betting volume figures for a year?
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Keep track of them or make a few phone calls.
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To betfair? I winder if there is an option to see your P/L then why doesnt betfair make the same option for seeing your turnover...
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I wonder*
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I think ROI and Profit on Turnover (POT) are 2 different things. Most people when they are thinking ROI are IMO thing POT.
P.O.T = percentage profit on total stake in betting year R.O.I = Percentage growth of betting bank in betting year. That sorts of fits in with what ROI is in financial circles. |
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What about R.O.SoP = Return On Sum of Profits (ie: = market wins + market losses)
This is the one I use, mainly. As a trader it's difficult to calculate the total staked - even if that figure is obtainable then how meaningful is it? For example: How does 50K staked for one tick compare to 1K staked for 50 ticks? |
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"As a trader"
By that I mean someone who changes positing in the market, not necessarily a tick trader. |
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*position
FFS, keyboard (fingers) |
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Traders are a different breed of creatures. They need their own set of definitions.
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"They need their own set of definitions."
Why? They take risk and try to make money. What's the difference? |
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buzzer Date Joined: 05 Jun 04 Add contact | Send message When: 16 Oct 12 21:33 Joined: Date Joined: 05 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 16,167 | Blogger: buzzer's blog I came across Adam Todds figures from a few years ago when trading on the horse racing markets was far easier http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/8444/adamresults.jpg Yeah I use that same table based on his actually! I spoke to him and apparently, he got these figures directly from betfair rather than compiling them himself. The 'volume' you see is the total backers stakes of his bets. You can see his edge deteriorating, which is probably a catalyst for diversifying into software! By: Mr.Angry Date Joined: 05 Jan 11 Add contact | Send message When: 17 Oct 12 12:02 Joined: Date Joined: 05 Jan 11 | Topic/replies: 3,161 | Blogger: Mr.Angry's blog What about R.O.SoP = Return On Sum of Profits (ie: = market wins + market losses) This is the one I use, mainly. As a trader it's difficult to calculate the total staked - even if that figure is obtainable then how meaningful is it? For example: How does 50K staked for one tick compare to 1K staked for 50 ticks? Yeah I do something similar, which I call 'return on market turnover'. Profit on Market Turnover 2007 73.53% 2008 34.47% 2009 24.13% 2010 10.60% 2011 9.04% that's the combined Gross Profit divided by the sum of net market pnl where you take the absolute value of losses. so if your entries are -5,+15, -25, +30, that means market turnover = 5+15+25+30. |
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well i guess for traders it would be profit/cumulative max risk over markets x 100
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'Market turnover' is something that can't be inflated artificially, because it costs money to do so (commission).
Bet volume, can easily be increased, you could scratch 100k and have zero pnl and 100k turnover, so market turnover is more meaningful. |
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Pointless exercise. What is important is how much you
are in front over a period of time. This evening I lost some money but although my 'stake' was x I was never exposed to much more than around 20% of it. The only number that matters is your daily profit/loss. |
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Pointless exercise. What is important is how much you
are in front over a period of time. This evening I lost some money but although my 'stake' was x I was never exposed to much more than around 20% of it. The only number that matters is your daily profit/loss. |
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I've really only started betting this year, all botted strategies prior to that. I've placed around 40-50 bets, all below evens and make about 20% ROI. I only bet when the odds are very wrong.
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pumpkins,
Unless you have a crystal ball, 20% will be hard to maintain, therefore take care. |
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pumpkinslayerII 28 Oct 12 20:11 Joined: 24 Aug 07 | Topic/replies: 169 | Blogger: pumpkinslayerII's blog I've really only started betting this year, all botted strategies prior to that. I've placed around 40-50 bets, all below evens and make about 20% ROI. I only bet when the odds are very wrong. Is that something that can't be botted, because you have to watch it to bet? How are you getting on with football? |
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colonell-did i read spmewhere that you bet on every in play game? if so, how do you manage all these games, or do you place bets preoff?
investor does all the televised games in play and hammers them  |
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...so he says.
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are u joking ken he'll be a millionaire in two years
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Will he ? Ok.
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You still useless at finding winners?
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Yeah, couldn't land a value bet if my life depended on it.
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Let me dispel the myth about a value bet, its called finding a winner
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So if someone offered you 5/4 on heads or tails, what do you call that phenomenon?
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