you may be a mug punter if...............................

you lose

you predict the outcome of an event

What about this scenario then

5% value on a 1.2 shot compared to 5% value on a 2 - 1 shot. The 1.2 shot is going to win 83% of the time so why not up stakes as your bank will be better protected.

does anywon stick 2 quid on a 1.01 ?

1. you increase your stake the shorter the price of your selection

Oh dear.  What is your stake on 1000/1 shots?  Is that less that you would stick on a 2/1 shot?  Would you happy with £5K on a 2/1 shot and £5K on a 1000/1 shot?

Each to his own.

does anywon stick 2 quid on a 1.01 ?

n/A mug punters are generally not found in this part of the market

5% value on a 1.2 shot compared to 5% value on a 2 - 1 shot. The 1.2 shot is going to win 83% of the time so why not up stakes as your bank will be better protected.

83% is the implied chance not the actual chance but assuming hypothetically you have accurately assessed the value long term you will be better playing larger stakes on the 2/1 shot imo

I'm glad this concept is still so sorely misunderstood

I would like to know:

What's your average size bet @ 2/1?
What's your average size bet @ 1000/1?

I dont bet at the higher range so my stake would be £0.00

2) bet 'accas'
3) 1st goal scorer.
4) Correct score(s)
5) influenced by previous 'head to head'
6) Back Liverpool

All the above 'pre kick off'

7) 'green up' at the first opportunity
8) refuse to 'red up' at any time.

Above 'in running'.

i see you didnt mention ''first corner''  ''last corner'' ''how much added time will there be''

also...backing liverpool is an absolute gold mine if you know what youre doing

thank you kenni for getting involved with the general theme of the thread rather than taking a point to its logical extreme

What's wrong with betting on the 'first corner' if the odds are right ?

sweetchildofmine, I didn't see your contribution, or perhaps you
prefer to have a snipe at others ?

kenilworth you say dont bet on first scorer or correct score but first corner is acceptable ffs???

what if the correct score odds are right? you cant keep referring to the kevin pullein book of gobbldygook

It seems you are in a 'sniping' mood today, and excuse me if
decide not to get involved. I suspect you probably fall for
most of my picks for mugs, accas, first goalscorer etc.GL lol.

Pre match correct score is a gold mine and no i wouldnt like to share, after five years on here i am well ahead so dont think im a mug but perhaps all mugs think that. . . .

Head to head is always worth a glance IMHO

Bridgeboy, looks like you have found the holy
grail, so good luck to you. I get my money
betting on corners

kenilworth if u get your money betting on a totally random outcome then best of luck

You're all talking crap.

A mug punter is one who bets with his gut with no regards to prices. A mug punter has no bankroll management. A mug punter chases his losses and can't stomach it.

Any bet is reasonable as long as the price is right, it's that simple. I generally agree that betting multiples isn't the way to go.

only a mug can put correct score putting as a mug game

Thank you for those best wishes, but I'm sorry that you chose
to call certain markets 'random' when the truth is that you
simply don't understand them. The only people who make money
on 'random' markets is Betfair and bookmakers. Don't knock
things just because you don't understand them, concetrate on
what you think you do understand, although that may be a your
problem.

ken ken ken im taking issue that you write off correct scores backers as mugs whilst heralding your own preference of corner backing

you top it by saying you understand the corners market whilst assuming nobody understands the correct score market..it is a little arrogant even you have to admit that

and thats my very last word on this thread, im far too busy making money on mugs markets

Oct 10, 2012 -- 2:43PM, kenilworth wrote:

7) 'green up' at the first opportunity8) refuse to 'red up' at any time.Above 'in running'.

If you back at 2 because you think it is 1.8, should you green up if you can lay at 1.82?

Dave, it depends on the score and mins played. You
need to be a bit more specific.

Thanks Ken I am a mug.

Mugs generally follow their hearts when betting.
God bless'em.

"you predict the outcome of an event"

This is the best summary of a casual bettor

You fail to acknowledge the role of luck in your successes

Car to enlighten us as to the broad reasoning as to why you are not a mug if that is the case?

Not just level stakes and appreciation of luck i assume?

maybe I am as much of a mug punter as anyone else, it was intended for people to add points maybe debate, it wasnt meant for you're a mug, Im a mug style playground stuff

the thread title reads

you MAY BE a mug punter if with a follow on, just meant for a few light hearted observations, I didnt realise I would get heat for it

you attempt to match an offer during actual play in any of the flies-round-sh1te markets.

As I was sitting on my chair
I saw an offer that wisnae there
It wisnae there again today
I wish that offer would go away.

u dont give up with     those trillons in missing  bets   feck

in fun way

You may be a mug punter if you.........

a.....have a username.

b....have apassword.

c.....have a credit card.

just a thought about being on betfair.

maybe im just being cynical lol

mikenz is on the money imo

TheJudge

1. you increase your stake the shorter the price of your selection

There is this pseudo handicapper from Canada.  I discovered his blog when looking for NHL blogs.

He charges for his 5*. Does daily bets as freebies. 

His staking plan is with underdogs, he bets a point.  For favourites, he covers 'the juice' and bets to MAKE A POINT. 

I explained to him, including links to articles, that the bookies in the States push everyone towards that and it eats at your profits.

Despite sending him a spreadsheet of his bets showing him over 60 days he would have more returns at LSP than "paying the juice", he continued to do so.

But this seems to be engraved into the mindset of North American punters.

Years ago, I was checking out an on-line bookmaker in the states...minimum $10.

I went to bet on a 4/5 and put $10 in.  When I went to check out, the wager had changed to $12.50.  I called them and they said "you have to cover the juice" and the minimum lose OR win is $10.00.

interesting fella, thats exactly the point I was attempting to make articulated and explained far better than I could've

I always bet to fixed returns, not fixed stakes.
I guess I'm different.

not just betfair only , same applies to ladbrokes, bet 365, nz tab, centrebet, mr hills , lol

1. If you don't have muliple high street accounts aswell as here

2. If you back against Liverpool at home against the big 4

3. If you run up to the paper pinned on the wall in the bookmakers questioning how you missed the winner

4. If you try and be an expert on multiple sports

5. Play any game of chance, casino, arcade etc

Oh and if you don't understand the meaning of long term value

Rugbyleaguer Joined: 30 Jul 08
Replies: 2049 13 Oct 12 01:17   

2. If you back against Liverpool at home against the big 4

Correction:
I'm sure you meant backed rather than back.

Ken I was at the ireland/germany game last night.

Not aftertiming but i thought the germans were certainties and the price very generous,if you analysed both line ups.The germans were such a price i feel due to irelands home record and there ability to be hard to beat in the past ie before euro 2012.
I would have backed the germans at any price up to 1/4,what were your thoughts on the price.

4 .. You start threads titled 'You may be a mug punter if..' and the first example you give is precisely what a pro punter would do.

............again

you MAYbe a mug punter if

is a different line to

you AREa mug punter if

there is no definitive classification and I wouldn't for a second suggest there is one way to stake, it has to be in line with your system and your temperament, but you seem to know it all and have the game by the balls mate so good luck to ya

Thread = Fail

Yep, but it's been instructive so not all lost

gl with your punting fella

if yuo try and trad the nags on a Sundy afternono after youv drunk a bottle of win

if yuo try and trad the nags on a Sundy afternono after youv drunk a bottle of win

Oh dear.

if you believe value is in the top two important factors to win long term

Im guilty of that one then if not top very near it to win long term

What two factors are more important, I assume that the people who ramp up there stakes the shorter the price there selection goes also dont believe in the value principle?

if you believe value is in the top two important factors to win long term

Please enlighten us then. Getting a bigger price than the chance of the event actually occurring is exactly how you win in long term betting. Also please don't be pedantic about what the term 'value' means as your argument.

Some punters make it pay without paying any regard to value, when you think about it the pool of punters is so vast that some will make a profit for years on end through sheer luck, and will believe they have some magical gift for predicting outcomes. Footsoldiers was maybe a good example of that, but I believe he went bust in the end owing thousands to syndicate members?

Value is an opinion. It's knowing when teams/players are under priced due to other circumstances. ie the t20 champs league

too true Trevh

monkeys on typewriters

I cannot win without value.
I cannot find value.

So long as you feel safe in that blinkered world, then everyone is happy.

it's becoming clear why you reacted to this thread ........

Go to Casinos

Go to casinos to make profit*

just come to the conclusion/bet e/w