Question for Correct score market experts

A few years ago I started keeping stats on every in-play match and found there was no edge in what your describing either way, others may disagree, but after analysing my books filled with tens of thousands of matches recording goal minutes and odds, I found there was a small edge backing goalless matches at 30 minutes to remain goalless and laying matches with a goal in that occurred before 30 minutes. I've moved on since then, but I wouldn't be surprised if the same small edge still exists.

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HI Trevh. Hope you don't mind me asking but did you record all of that data yourself manually? Sounds like a lot of fun work if you did.

I kept a fair amount of data but will throw something out at you;

First, there are 20 teams playing with eleven players and a manager with strategy.  There are different 'categories' of goals coupled with penalties, corners, free kicks and own goals.

Where I have had success when 'incorporating' the correct score market was to do a multiple with betfair with 6 games doing 4, 5 and 6 folds coupled with playing in-running.

For the selections, I usually read TEAM STATS rather than GENERAL STATS and selected two possible outcomes per match.

I would then say "how many GOALS will there be in the game" combined.  When you do this, you end up with a figure of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.   You then have a more finite number of outcomes to look at.  i.e 3 would mean 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3.

I then returned to the match and team news and take a further read.  If I thought the home team would win, then often I would take 2-0  3-0. 

The in-running was used if I found myself in profit and would then put 'chips' on where I thought the games were evolving.  i.e. 2-0, perhaps 2-1 or over 3.5.

It was actually quite enjoyable, especially when you found yourself £700 up.  From there, knowledge of math plus how teams play in the last fifteen minutes necessary.

The general stats are for the bookies to present ("Trap 6 wins 20% of the time"  - yes, but how many times do favourites win?...stats are useless unless put in context).

Make it interesting for yourself and you'll enjoy the challenge.  Follow the stats and you'll generate commissions for betfair.

Had to read that a few times but I think i get you!

Hi U.A, yes I used to spend all day every day watching the in-play c/s markets and recording all goal minutes and odds manually, filling up a few A4 size books. Back then there was far fewer matches than now (today (Weds) there's around 190 matches, that was about the weekly amount back then - now around 1000 per week) and each weeks results would take up about 3 or 4 pages (both sides) never again haha, but it was a very worthwhile learning process and I can take it easier these days because of that hard study.

Trevh
We have a poster called " the cookiemonster ".
I think you should have named yourself "the hardworkmonster ".
It's pretty mind boggling some of the work you've put on the past in researching gambling opportunities.
Any success you have today is imo well deserved.

Sep 26, 2012 -- 2:02AM, Trevh wrote:

Hi U.A, yes I used to spend all day every day watching the in-play c/s markets and recording all goal minutes and odds manually, filling up a few A4 size books. Back then there was far fewer matches than now (today (Weds) there's around 190 matches, that was about the weekly amount back then - now around 1000 per week) and each weeks results would take up about 3 or 4 pages (both sides) never again haha, but it was a very worthwhile learning process and I can take it easier these days because of that hard study.

that is crazy. didnt you have anything else to do?

Why not just do a poisson analysis? Much more accurate and simpler.

Question for Correct score market experts This user is offline. thecookiemonster Date Joined: 05 Jul 11
Add contact | Send message 24 Sep 12 20:34 Joined: Date Joined: 05 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 382 | Blogger: thecookiemonster's blog


Do you think its more profitable in long term to back a score at 65mins or lay a score at 65 mins despite the momentum of game etc?

And would it pay to lay any game thats 0 0 at 65mins ?

Simple answer, it depends on the prices.

I was surprised that no one mentioned prices on this thread.

Hi Kenilworth, in the original q I should have mentioned it but its included in 'etc'

Ive noticed many games where a team could be 4 0 or 5 0 up around the hour mark recently ie shaktar and bayern munich and the odds were very high on no further goals and they remained at those scorelines causing me a lot of pain, then i see games that are 0 0 and low key before they take off at the hour mark and could end up 2 2 for example. So the pricing can often be wrong.

cookie, I play the correct score market from about the 60 min
mark onwards, concentrating on the prevailing score at the
time, backing or laying dependent totally on prices,(tv matches).
I try to stick to matches where both sides are odds against,
with average goal expectancy, but I don't mind what the score is
within reason, as the price tends to reflect what is happening
BUT NOT ALWAYS. The price is crucial, I couldn't emphasise that
enough.In answer to your opening question, you might ask 'how long
is a piece of string', but I'll try. At 0-0 on 65 mins the average
price to end that way would be IMO, around 2.45 but there are other
factors which can influence it, yellow cards, red cards etc. so can
be a good back at 2,20 or a bad back at 2.75, hope that helps. GL.

Thanks Frog.

Henok, my life is gambling.

Yommoma, I don't see any simpler way of gaining the vast stats, my current edges all come from that info'.

Kenilworth, prices are absolutely everything I agree, but I play in vast numbers of matches all at the same time without watching them, so my methods are based on average prices that I know will give me a profit long term rather than more exact prices relevant to a single match, if you know what I mean.

Cookiemonster, I've been doing this for years and make good money, but if (as you describe above) I tried to gain an opinion on individual matches at the 60 minute mark in order to assess a value price I'm pretty sure I wouldn't make any money.

Hi Trevh cheers for the reply. I'm curious as to why you first started collecting all these stats as it's quite an undertaking. Did you start on the basis that you would get all this data have a look at it and the hopefully you could find some kind of incorrect pricing and hence value somewhere or did you go into it with some idea or hunch that prices were wrong (for want of a better word) and you would get the stats to see if you were right or not.

Also Trevh I get the impression that you are not an computer geek, certainly not back then if you were recording data in a book. Do you automate your betting these days or do you do it all manually.

No worries if you don't want to answer these questions if you don't want to give out this info over the forum.

U.A, no I'm not a computer geek at all, if someone had told me 10 years ago that I'd be making my living on line I would have said no way! I do everything manually, if I was capable of writing bots I know I could make more money though.

I started with the football stats after failing on horse racing. I noticed that you could get a slight edge laying 0-0's to red-up when the price halved - i.e. backing a goal in the first 27 minutes or so, which pays a profit after commission (I talked about that method a few times ages ago). That lead me to record all goal minutes in search of other long term average edges.

What about you, do you mainly bet in c/s markets?

HI Trevh. I play the match odds markets pre-off and in-play. I dabble a bit in the correct score market as well but my trouble is I don't have the time to do the proper amount of research needed.

I have match odds together with the minute of all the goals in the EPL going back the last 5 seasons and obviously looking at the goal times it seems that c/s prices (those which I am able to investigate) do seem to be pretty accurate although there are a few avenues which look like they could warrant further investigation. Any inaccuracies are quite small and it seems that to really get any benefits from them then they would need to be implemented on a large scale, i.e. over say 10000 games as opposed to 100 games. However I don't have nearly enough stats at all as for starters it's only 1 league, but there is no way I have the time to go about collecting the stats. Like you I have no geek skills and everything I do is manual.

U.A. I really can't imagine the market makes any mistakes with the correct
score prices pre kick off, but once a goal has been scored different opinions
can surface, especially in the second half and the scores are not level. In
that circumstance opportunities arise, not all the time, but often enough.

Trevh -i thought i was alone , but you sound exactly the same as me  ,same processes,same background of writing month's worth of scores/games/ and occurrences on A4 paper  etc  -still have notepads full of info .

  There are probably easier ways no doubt as some maths geek will kindly inform us , but you can't beat real time experience seeing events unfold and absorb the info at the same time  .

Glad it works for you .

Hi Kenilworth, thanks for your comments.

Yeah i'm inclined to agree that more variation from the true value price will probably will come the further into a game you get (when goals occur) It's just trying to ascertain how that variation occurs. May well try to have a look at it at the end of this season, see if anything leaps out at me.

Cheers

Haha, yes Coach I reckon there's no substitute for hands on experience. Doing things manually is all I know, I was a carpenter for 25 years and gave it up to concentrate on this full time when I was 41, didn't want to be working on building sites any longer and that was a great motivation to make it work here, though the change of lifestyle took some getting used to! What's your story if you don't mind me asking? :)

One filter I used and incorportated:

GENERAL then created sub categories.

ODDS OF FAVE
Margin of victory.

I ran this over five years of several leagues and the parameters were there.

i.e. (figures for example)
League:premier league
Home fave: 3/5
IF WIN: Query Margin

Then the specific to teams:
If win, over or under 2.5 goals was a good one.
How many scoreless

This would often create an 'anchor' score that I would then work from;

i.e. if "Arsenal" were heavy as under 2.5, winning margin 2, then I would start at 2-0.

From there, I looked at opponent vs odds on away.

If I felt they could score,
2-0 / 2-1 were the selections

Or
2-0
3-0

I build a grid with "hot spots" which made colours based on stats.  It becomes apparent quickly.

From there, multiples with 2 scores per game / 6 games / 3 folds upwards was always fun.

Trevh

Glad you mentioned the change of lifestyle I went pro 10 years ago,all I knew was horse racing,wife was working and we had 2 small kids under 5 at the time,which really impacted on my ability to spend the undivided time required on the horses.There would be a race coming up and kids would need something and boom winner goes in unbacked.I am good at the horses and really understand the game know it inside out,but one thing I didn't factor in was bottle.

I found I let horses go that I fancied strongly then hit on losers that I wasn't as strong on,due to letting the winners go,eventually I went back to the workplace,but resumed three years ago and haven't looked back since.

Trevh - my story is a short one ,  was working full time 6 years ago then gave up work (save for a few hours a week reading utility meters in 2006/7/8) in order to study the football  markets ,was getting absolutely nowhere for a  couple of years and soon built up considerable debt -  luckily i was eventually able to make it pay enough to clear my debts , i was also, over time able to make up the ongoing wage shortfall after that poor start  , gambling has been pretty good to me  the last 3 years touch wood - so far, so good .
I'm like you, i wouldn't relish the though of returning to work ,don't think i could handle it these days -it was bad enough back in 2006.
Ran a small run business for a fair while ,also tried a couple mundane Mon-Fri type efforts  including some  call centre work for 4 months -that was a serious low point.

Good luck ahead .