General Betting
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
15 Sep 12
18:07
Joined:
Date Joined:
25 Jun 08
I know that this has been mentioned on endless threads prior to this one, but i was wondering, how do Bookmakers price up their odds?.
I realise that there are statistiians working for these Bookmakers but does anyone know how they actually price up their matches?
Take for example:
Exeter 2.26/2.28 Draw 3.35/ 4.0 York City 3.65/ 3.7
Both teams are hig in the league table (2nd) and (7th) and have 12pts and 11pts in their last 5 fixtures (current form).
The previous 3 x FT Results involving the same fixture were 1v1, 1v1 and 1v3, thus meaning that Exeter hadnt won in the last 3 matches against York.
I realise lots of other permutatons would have been into the collating of these odds but can anyone confirm exactly how they calculate it?.
Personally i believe i have an edge in a number of areas involving Football markets and have made an increase of 212% of my bank in the month of September.
I am quite strong in analysing the markets and believe this to be my edge but i have only really taken Football Betting seriously this season.
If anyone can help with answering any of the above questions it would be very much appreciated?.
I realise that there are statistiians working for these Bookmakers but does anyone know how they actually price up their matches?
Take for example:
Exeter 2.26/2.28 Draw 3.35/ 4.0 York City 3.65/ 3.7
Both teams are hig in the league table (2nd) and (7th) and have 12pts and 11pts in their last 5 fixtures (current form).
The previous 3 x FT Results involving the same fixture were 1v1, 1v1 and 1v3, thus meaning that Exeter hadnt won in the last 3 matches against York.
I realise lots of other permutatons would have been into the collating of these odds but can anyone confirm exactly how they calculate it?.
Personally i believe i have an edge in a number of areas involving Football markets and have made an increase of 212% of my bank in the month of September.
I am quite strong in analysing the markets and believe this to be my edge but i have only really taken Football Betting seriously this season.
If anyone can help with answering any of the above questions it would be very much appreciated?.
Show More
Here's one approach, based on recent matches, that will give you a lot of ideas:
http://www.football-data.co.uk/ratings.pdf
http://www.football-data.co.uk/ratings.pdf
its a combination of a)long term trends b)home/away supremacy and c)short term factors like team news,form etc.
Not knowing much about either team i would assume the bookies rate them very closely hence the 2.26 price of a home win.Statistically home wins account for 46% or so of match results(long term trend). If the home team was missing 3/4 key players the win price may be 2.6 or so.
If 2 equal teams play on a neutral venue with both equal good form and no injuries i would assume the match prices to be around 2.68 3.65 2.68.
Not knowing much about either team i would assume the bookies rate them very closely hence the 2.26 price of a home win.Statistically home wins account for 46% or so of match results(long term trend). If the home team was missing 3/4 key players the win price may be 2.6 or so.
If 2 equal teams play on a neutral venue with both equal good form and no injuries i would assume the match prices to be around 2.68 3.65 2.68.
Yes it will be done on ratings and as Max says 2.26 Home means they rate those 2 teams as equals
So you can work out a rating table starting with the 2.68 3.65 2.68 Max gives for a match between equals at a neutral venue though the draw odds (and therefore the odds of the 2 joint favs ) are variable dependant on wether the game is expected to be high or low scoring.
If Team A is 1 pt superior on the table then they could be something like 2.55 and Team B 2.82
The Bookies could use rating charts in the old days which would have all the possible combinations of odds for each team to win based on the difference in rating.
The Rating would just be a subjective verdict on the ability of the teams rather than something worked out in an objective mathematical way . Example: On any objective stat measurement of the last 30/40 matches Newcastle are better than Liverpool but any bookie would make Liverpool favs to beat them at a neutral venue .
A table like this for the teams would be easy to use to work out the odds from the table lower down
Using the above tables Man City are rated 5 superior to Chelsea so they would be Evens to win and Chelsea 9/4 at say Wembley .If we award 4 extra points for Home advantage then City are now 9 superior at Etihaad Stadium and therefore now 8/11 with Chelsea 10/3 .With Chelsea having home advantage they would be 1pt inferior so 13/8 with City at 11/8
That table is with old bookies odds from their 110% books .A proper table would be in decimals with draws included and to 100% books.
So you can work out a rating table starting with the 2.68 3.65 2.68 Max gives for a match between equals at a neutral venue though the draw odds (and therefore the odds of the 2 joint favs ) are variable dependant on wether the game is expected to be high or low scoring.
If Team A is 1 pt superior on the table then they could be something like 2.55 and Team B 2.82
The Bookies could use rating charts in the old days which would have all the possible combinations of odds for each team to win based on the difference in rating.
The Rating would just be a subjective verdict on the ability of the teams rather than something worked out in an objective mathematical way . Example: On any objective stat measurement of the last 30/40 matches Newcastle are better than Liverpool but any bookie would make Liverpool favs to beat them at a neutral venue .
A table like this for the teams would be easy to use to work out the odds from the table lower down
| Team | Rating |
| Man City | 101 |
| Man United | 99 |
| Chelsea | 96 |
| Arsenal | 95 |
| Spurs | 95 |
| Liverpool | 93 |
| Newcastle | 90 |
| Team A Superiority | Team A | Team B | |
| 0 | 6/4 | 6/4 | |
| 1 | 11/8 | 13/8 | |
| 2 | 5/4 | 7/4 | |
| 3 | 6/5 | 15/8 | |
| 4 | 11/10 | 2/1 | |
| 5 | EvS | 9/4 | |
| 6 | 10/11 | 5/2 | |
| 7 | 5/6 | 11/4 | |
| 8 | 4/5 | 3/1 | |
| 9 | 8/11 | 10/3 | |
| 10 | 4/6 | 7/2 | |
| 11 | 8/13 | 4/1 | |
| 12 | 4/7 | 9/2 | |
| 13 | 8/15 | 5/1 | |
| 14 | 1/2 | 11/2 | |
| 15 | 4/9 | 6/1 |
Using the above tables Man City are rated 5 superior to Chelsea so they would be Evens to win and Chelsea 9/4 at say Wembley .If we award 4 extra points for Home advantage then City are now 9 superior at Etihaad Stadium and therefore now 8/11 with Chelsea 10/3 .With Chelsea having home advantage they would be 1pt inferior so 13/8 with City at 11/8
That table is with old bookies odds from their 110% books .A proper table would be in decimals with draws included and to 100% books.
Cheers for your comments guys,,, very interesting read.
Thanks
Thanks
There is a very well written series on pricing football matches over at this site;)
.
http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-calculate-probabilities-for-football-betting-using-poisson-part-1
.
http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-calculate-probabilities-for-football-betting-using-poisson-part-1
Not sure about bookies and I'm sure forumites would disagree with a lot of it but there's an entire book on the subject, the racing post guide to football betting or something like that.
That article is just about on the right track but the author is missing a blindingly obvious and far superior way of approaching it which is in fact far less complicated and subjective.
TOTGA - Sorry for being a bit cryptic but unfortunately I wouldn't particularly like to point it out to the type of person who already considers themselves expert enough to write on a site called bettingexpert when they're probably nothing more than a break even gambler themselves judging by what they write.
obermory 16 Sep 12 02:09
Yes it will be done on ratings and as Max says 2.26 Home means they rate those 2 teams as equals
So you can work out a rating table starting with the 2.68 3.65 2.68 Max gives for a match between equals at a neutral venue though the draw odds (and therefore the odds of the 2 joint favs ) are variable dependant on wether the game is expected to be high or low scoring.
If Team A is 1 pt superior on the table then they could be something like 2.55 and Team B 2.82
I disagree with most of that.
Yes it will be done on ratings and as Max says 2.26 Home means they rate those 2 teams as equals
So you can work out a rating table starting with the 2.68 3.65 2.68 Max gives for a match between equals at a neutral venue though the draw odds (and therefore the odds of the 2 joint favs ) are variable dependant on wether the game is expected to be high or low scoring.
If Team A is 1 pt superior on the table then they could be something like 2.55 and Team B 2.82
I disagree with most of that.
1) The computer ratings system will give them the prices.
2) They will then have a small range for variation as to which price they put up based on experience of how they expect bets to come in.
3) Quick check to make sure there are no arbitrage opportunities with any of the other bookies/exchanges.
2) They will then have a small range for variation as to which price they put up based on experience of how they expect bets to come in.
3) Quick check to make sure there are no arbitrage opportunities with any of the other bookies/exchanges.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539