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fixedodds
30 Aug 12 09:42
Joined:
Date Joined: 21 Mar 06
| Topic/replies: 39 | Blogger: fixedodds's blog
Everyone has a tale to tell on here so here's mine. Firstly can I say for one moment I don't think I've turned into the brilliant punter. Because I'm not.  But what I've done is read through old posts on this and other forums for little snippets of advice and info kept notes and gone back and re-read everything again.
I had already made a decision to leave the horses alone I was always a backer , ever since I can remember. I always bet singles to varying stakes from £30 to £400. I only ever wanted to make a few grand a year enough to pay for a family holiday or few nice weekends here and there. I was never under any illusions, I was a realist. I used a systematic approach based on a few factors that are all relevant to racing. As each season would begin especially the flat I would think this is my year when I crack it. Each season would come and go, some big priced winners plenty of losers ,plenty of horses I knew would win did , and plenty I thought would win never did. But would usually pop up at a big price a run or two later. Issues with the ground the draw the pace style of running ie.... off the pace from the front.  And one of the biggest things that everyone seems to ignore is the fact these things are not machines, we have no idea how there feeling. DO THEY REALLY FEEL LIKE RUNNING FAST TODAY. THEY CAN'T TELL YOU WHEN THEY JUST DON'T FEEL UP TO IT. And of course the good old jockeys. Who are all WHITER THAN WHITE. enough said.
Any way like I said all I've ever wanted was to make enough to pay for a nice holiday each year. I concentrated all my efforts into football I had my own ideas, new the game very well , understood betting , it made sense. Introduced a few simple rules , nothing major , nothing nobody else doesn't know, just basic things that would stand me in good stead. The game is so random , but the biggest and best decision of the lot was to only bet in play.
I can make my decision as the game flows, I only play a couple of markets , usually match odds or the goals. I don't play to big stakes, but when I get the chance I always green up , I'm not greedy I'm looking to make small consistent profits. Last night I had no opinion on the fenerbahce v spartak Moscow game. But looked at half time spartak were one up the logical thing for me was to lay them. I did for a while fenerbahce got there goal and I got out. Profit about £ 18. That will do me. I know I can do that a few times a week by the end of the week that turns into anything from £50. £150 last night I made around £40.
Listen like I said I'm nothing on here , nothing. But if I can look after myself and take a few quid here and there , and make nice little withdrawals every Sunday then other people can to. I only ever keep £100 balance that keeps me on my toes , it keeps me real , and it keeps me disciplined. I try and think like a bookie, try and have there mentality. I hope this post can help a few. Just think small and be realistic. All the best
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Report Burton-Brewers • August 30, 2012 9:46 AM BST
glad it's going well for you, keep it going
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR • August 30, 2012 9:49 AM BST
A charmingly humble post.
Would be very interesting to get a mid season update, just to hear that things are still going so well.
All the best.
Report G Hall • August 30, 2012 10:16 AM BST
well done nice post,just one addition if I may.

You mentioned the horses and are obviously good at them.You mentioned them popping up in there next run or two after you backed them.

Horses are brought to the boil,and are poised to win,you have obviously identified this trait,and for reasons you have mentioned they don't always win.

Well in my experience horses that are brought to the boil nearly always win within their next two or three races,and often at bigger prices,and are therefore worth following over their next two or three races,and then removed from the list,when a win has been achieved.
Report buzzer • August 30, 2012 10:37 AM BST
I can make my decision as the game flows, I only play a couple of markets , usually match odds or the goals. I don't play to big stakes, but when I get the chance I always green up , I'm not greedy I'm looking to make small consistent profits.


If you don't red up too you'll still lose over the long term. It's all well and good always greening up when you get the chance, if the odds dictate it's value to do so, but if you let your losers run praying things, out of your control, go your way it's a ridiculous way to operate.
Report fixedodds • August 30, 2012 10:50 AM BST
Thanks for all the comments.  Hi   G HALL   Yes you have a good point there they are brought to the boil and a lot of times when there meant to win for one reason or another it just doesn't happen. They are then run down the field next time. Usually ensuring the price for the following run is what they want. So from the run where it marked your card,, to the next where it disappoints ,,the following one it's run down the field to really cover there tracks,, to today ,, sometimes it's well over a month since you knew that horse was better than it had shown. And you have no idea where you stand with it now.  That's the killer.  But I do understand where your coming from its just other animals have marked your card now and you've moved on.
Report fixedodds • August 30, 2012 10:56 AM BST
Buzzer I red up to mate. Backed real for the next goal last night could see the game was going 2 nd half and took a loss. Like I said I don't think I'm the best punter by a long shot. But I one a few quid on the game over all.  I'm never afraid to admit when Ive got something wrong mate.
Report buzzer • August 30, 2012 11:31 AM BST
That's fair enough then.
I wasn't having a snipe at you it's just from your original post you stated you green whenever you can but didn't say you were prepared to red out too which would mean you're cutting your likely winners but letting your likely losers run to their conclusion which would be a losing strategy. Good luck for the future.
Report fixedodds • August 30, 2012 11:56 AM BST
Nice one buzzer
Report G Hall • August 30, 2012 1:38 PM BST
I had to do the very thing on nigeria game this morning redded out for 90 loss but if i had let it run would have been down 250 a big swing
Report Steamship • August 30, 2012 3:07 PM BST
Such a difficult thing pulling out at a loss, I know from my spread betting days.
Report Glasgow Brian • August 30, 2012 5:56 PM BST
$100 in your bank ????

Why the fyk dont you top it up
Report starfish and coffee • August 30, 2012 6:41 PM BST
I only ever keep £100 balance that keeps me on my toes , it keeps me real , and it keeps me disciplined.


Seems fair enough.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR • August 30, 2012 11:28 PM BST
It also keeps him small time.
But it seems that is what he wants too.
Report DFCIRONMAN • August 31, 2012 12:37 PM BST
"Small time ".........

If you are any "good" you can make substantial money starting with £100 and are prepared to lose that bank and then try again on days when "odd" results happen re horse racing.
Report racingguru • August 31, 2012 4:46 PM BST
DFCIRON - If you are any "good" you can make substantial money starting with £100 and are prepared to lose that bank and then try again on days when "odd" results happen re horse racing

That busto approach will very rarely win you money long term.

Been betting 20+ years professionally or semi professionally in my worst 2 years ever (made a profit at end) at one stage of the season I was 38% and 50% down of my betting bank. Further, I generally bet longer priced horses so can have longer droughts between winners but generally most pros never get more than 20-25% down of bank at ANY stage of the season.
Report big aitch • August 31, 2012 8:59 PM BST
are you only backing Guru?
Report racingguru • August 31, 2012 11:45 PM BST
Yes, backing only. Laying horses on here early price is a no win situation - either you don't get matched and it loses or you get matched higher than SP and lose long term.
Report patrick starr • September 1, 2012 1:56 PM BST
what a cr4p story,thats 5 mins i'll never get back
Report chatlame • September 1, 2012 5:49 PM BST
The last story you get is pretty good, from racingguru.
Report cpfc4me • September 2, 2012 10:39 PM BST
Last night I had no opinion on the fenerbahce v spartak Moscow game. But looked at half time spartak were one up the logical thing for me was to lay them.

How was that the 'logical' thing to do? You had no opinion one minute, but the next minute, the lay is value?

but when I get the chance I always green up

As others have said, this is a common mistake. You trade out of a position only if it is value to do so, not because you can.

IMO, you should also let the profits build up. I can't imagine that the few quid your bank generates most weeks is needed anywhere else (I would hope not) so let the bank build. Telling people to think small is strange advice.
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