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TigerGreen
22 Aug 12 22:27
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Aug 12
| Topic/replies: 150 | Blogger: TigerGreen's blog
Hi ******,

Sorry if you are not the person to come to with this, but i would like to share my thoughts on the subject matter of this email.

I have been trying, unsuccessfully, to get bets matched on the 72 and 18 hole matchbets in the European and US golf tournaments over the last 48 hours, but the liquidity is non existent. Couple this with my exposure on your recently added fixed odds product being brought to below £200, and the consequence is that i have been unable to place any of these bets with Betfair. Even on occasion where i have been prepared to offer prices that offer an arb against the High Street, i have still been unable to find a counterpart for my bet at any levels of staking which would make it worthwhile for me.

This problem has been ongoing now for a couple of years, and we both know is directly as a result of Betfair's policies; most notably on increased commissions and charges. Last Sunday i wished to place a bet of £800 on a final round 2 Ball in the Wyndham golf tournament. On previous occasions, i have been able to post requests for a counterpart on your forums, and have been matched.

The counterpart in question was unable to lay the bet as he is no longer using Betfair. I am sure you are, or can be, aware of those to whom i am referring. I am at a loss to see how this can be beneficial to Betfair going forward. He is unable, or for sound financial reasoning unwilling, to take a bet that he would happily accept, and i, subsequently, am unable to place my bet.

Betfair was, and to large intent and purpose remains, a revolutionary and unique platform for person to person betting. I do, however, fail to see how the changes that you have made since the introduction of additional charges, has offered anything to the development of your core services on the sports exchange. I have heard, and understand to some sound reasoning, that some customers may not be profitable to Betfair in the long term, but i do not see how, in essence, removing these high liquidity customers from what unfortunately have become now largely illiquid markets can serve as a sound strategy for Betfair.

I wished this evening to place 3x £1000 tournament matchbets across the Johnnie Walker / Barclays golf tournaments, but have not been matched for a penny, and the amounts quoted as available on the fixed odds product do not interest me. I could get those, for better prices, at Ladbrokes.

I sadly do not expect that you will provide me with any short term solutions to these problems, but i would certainly be engaged to know what, if any, tangible plans you have in place to improve your offering in the markets that i have mentioned.

Kind Regards,

**********.
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Report Mr.Angry August 23, 2012 8:43 AM BST
That just about sums it up.  The main markets are flourishing with the new customer liquidity, but the lesser markets have been killed.

As an aside, how easy/hard would it have been to get 3 x £1000 bets matched on the golf with a traditional bookmaker?
Report Feck N. Eejit August 23, 2012 8:58 AM BST
You should have addressed it to last5minutes.com head of operations.
Report DOUBLED August 23, 2012 9:58 AM BST
Chances of a serious response from Betfair ??? There is £2 on the lay side at 1.02 and £2 on the back side at 1.01 Laugh
Report TigerGreen August 23, 2012 10:11 AM BST
Well that is why i've sent it directly to the Head of Operations. Although he's out of office for a couple of weeks. Will share any reply that i get.

One slight improvement would be to ban the 1.01 layers on every sub market. Parasites should have their accounts closed.
Report JLivermore August 23, 2012 10:37 AM BST
It's a good email, but why didn't you email CEO?  It's really the corporate strategy (increase monetisation / improve margins) you are complaining about, and I think this falls outside Ops.

Also, I might have put it on paper... I still think people treat a written/delivered letter with more respect than an email.
Report Templeton Peck August 23, 2012 11:07 AM BST
I too sent an email to him yesterday!  He tweeted me in May - he misunderstood one of my tweets - and after a couple of tweets he said he'd be happy to hear from me.

I mentioned the PC, but it was also about the unacceptable delay in a response from the helpdesk I've been experiencing when I email them.  I found it rather droll that I got his out of office in reply...
Report frog2 August 23, 2012 11:27 AM BST
Its a difficult one. The Betfair business model we all knew and loved was flawed. A few big players making huge demands of the servers trading making big steady profits was sucking the pot dry. For those that complain about the charges tell me an alternate solution that would work.

It was only with the Premium Charge coming in and the logic of it being explained to me that I realised how much easier it is to make money trading (gambling on price movements) rather than gambling on outcomes. The basic commission structure coupled with steady rather than big up and down profits still massively favours trading to outright betting on here.

The charges are extremely complex. Its a matter of optimising your activity on here to minimise charges.

If you are on 2% commission you should be able to end up paying a long term commission rate of 33% on gross profits with no transaction or data request charges. But in order to do this you have to be willing to do your bit putting real liquidity into Betfair. By real liquidty I mean leaving open bets until the conclusion of events and bet enough so your overall ROI is very low.

It makes sense now to place very marginally profitable bets or even slightly loss making bets in order to get rid of the extra charges. This in turn should bring more liquidity to the exchange. I am surprised no one is matching those bets if they are 'fair value' as it would reduce fees elsewhere.

The big problem is the ever moving goal posts. Having invested 6 months in building a model to price Australian racing a 49 market per week limit came in. So that had to be binned.
Report TigerGreen August 23, 2012 11:34 AM BST
It's a fair set of comments, and i do not pretend to understand the mathematics and structures behind the charges in their entirety - i've paid the basic PC, but not for a couple of years.

The thing is that i don't generally trade, i'm more of a punter. I'm happy to place a bet and sit back. I often get myself into trouble when i trade. I just go on my experience of the exchange as a customer that probably places about 15-20k each week in bets, but now can't. I'm putting less in, and so are others.

I do take extremely fair value, for example i have backed Harrington for 1.15k in his 3 ball today in the Barclays at average odds of 1.91 when 2 is available on the High Street. I'm currently only able to use Betfair, but am actively seeking an alternate platform to get much of this done.

I have also forwarded the email to the CEO to ask for it to be dealt with in the absence of the Head of Ops. Only been in the job 3 weeks - be interesting to see what kind of response there is.
Report Feck N. Eejit August 23, 2012 3:32 PM BST
frog, they could easily have made the pc a more complex function of commission generated such that gamblers would have been unaffected. You never did back up your "churn to avoid pc" mantra with any logic. Unless you move into markets you normally wouldn't bet in the way to reduce pc is to increase risk and the easiest way of doing this is to not bet on marginal value in markets you're normally active in.
Report drive for show putt for dough August 23, 2012 4:18 PM BST
I wished this evening to place 3x £1000 tournament matchbets across the Johnnie Walker / Barclays golf tournaments, but have not been matched for a penny, and the amounts quoted as available on the fixed odds product do not interest me. I could get those, for better prices, at Ladbrokes.

I do take extremely fair value, for example i have backed Harrington for 1.15k in his 3 ball today in the Barclays at average odds of 1.91 when 2 is available on the High Street. I'm currently only able to use Betfair, but am actively seeking an alternate platform to get much of this done.

?????


Why can you only use Betfair? If that is the case then all you can do is put it up and suck it and see.
Report TigerGreen August 23, 2012 4:38 PM BST
The High Streets don't welcome you with open arms when you're a proven winner son.
Report RonaldinhoRAT August 23, 2012 5:55 PM BST
a proven winner son.

To expect to get matched for thousands every week with negative expectancy(plus commission) for the other side of the bet seems mental to me.
Maybe the users who used to match your bets have got fed up and stopped playing these losing markets for them.
Then to e mail betfair to complain is the cherry on the cake for me...
Report frog2 August 23, 2012 8:09 PM BST
Feck,

If you pay 2% commission on winnings and you get 3% implied commission on losers it makes sense to 'churn' using marginal systems.

For instance if u have a break even system for laying or backing football favourites at evens. Imagine you placed 1000s of bets at 10k each. If they win 50% of the time you would not use the system in normal circumstances because u pay £200 commission every win. But if you are already paying the premium charge it makes sense to place the bets because for every £200 commission you pay you get £300 implied commission. So for every two bets you generate £250 in commission for Betfair but it only costs you £200. So every bet you save yourself £50 in premium charge. It also going towards the offset for transaction and data request charges.

In return for this you add £10k in real liquidity to the 1000s of football markets you play. Everyone benefits including Betfair.
Report Feck N. Eejit August 23, 2012 9:12 PM BST
frog,

a) how many pc payers are on 2%?
b) how many could be @rsed implementing your suggestion manually?
c) of those automated, how many have a break even system on markets they're unfamiliar with (it's not easy given the spread and the  wildly fluctuating odds)?
d) most would see betfair benefiting as a minus, not a plus.

I'm afraid most will be more likely to cut down on marginal bets in their usual markets.
Report Mr Magoo August 23, 2012 10:14 PM BST
Does it matter what your commission rate is?

Say you find an additional, new betting strategy that makes £100 gross profit/week. Unfortunately, it also incurs £110 in commission. This would normally be a dumb strategy to use, since it is losing you money. But, if you are already paying premium charge, then suddenly this strategy becomes worthwhile.
Report Mr Magoo August 23, 2012 10:16 PM BST
d) most would see betfair benefiting as a minus, not a plus.

If you have this opinion, you shouldn't be here at all. Every marginal extra bet you place will make Betfair money one way or another. But if that bet makes *you* money too, then why not place it?
Report frog2 August 23, 2012 11:19 PM BST
Feck N. Eejit
23 Aug 12 15:32
Joined:
10 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 7,898 | Blogger: Feck N. Eejit's blog
frog,
You never did back up your "churn to avoid pc" mantra with any logic.

.....

I hope I have now backed it up with some logic.
Report steeringjobnap August 23, 2012 11:53 PM BST
Simple summary:

Gross P&L falls [denominator]

Commission paid rises [numerator]
Report Feck N. Eejit August 24, 2012 6:26 AM BST
I hope I have now backed it up with some logic.

You did frog but that idea was put up a few months ago (I can't remember if it was contrarian or investor who put it up).


If you have this opinion, you shouldn't be here at all.

So if I don't like banks does that mean I should keep my money under the mattress?
Report racingguru August 24, 2012 7:41 AM BST
frog2 - Its a difficult one. The Betfair business model we all knew and loved was flawed. A few big players making huge demands of the servers trading making big steady profits was sucking the pot dry. For those that complain about the charges tell me an alternate solution that would work.

Personally I feel that Betfair's idea that traders are good for liquidity is the underlying problem. Sure they provide liquidity but are heavily subsidised to do so versus a straight bettor. PC is a flawed method to raise revenue as a super tax where the solution should be that all punters pay per trade (% win or lose) with the punters that provide liquidity are paid to do so in the way of commission rebates/lower fees etc. BF has got so far away from what it was set out to be (better odds/good value) that the straight punter really doesn't need to be here if he is in anyway resourceful enough to get on a bet with a bookie (as he'll almost always get a better price) so if something isn't done this place will end up with traders cannibalizing themselves and BF just whacking up the charges to compensate the fact the traders don't pay their fair share.
Report curlywurly August 24, 2012 10:33 AM BST
Beta must be largely responsible for the dramatic tailoff in liquidity for the side markets.
It's like pulling teeth to actually get a bet on the site, then it gets leapfogged by some nerdy tracker bot for £16/£32 etc.
Not surprising people are getting fed up
Report john23 August 24, 2012 10:44 AM BST
Side markets are becoming like ghost towns.  Bf's solution - add more.
Report Feck N. Eejit August 24, 2012 6:01 PM BST
See they've put the min bet up to £5 to access live video and Mr Magoo thinks I should be worried about their liquidity.


PS spare me the "trade and watch for pennies" line and tell the betfair clowns instead.
Report CLYDEBANK29 August 24, 2012 6:45 PM BST
The counterpart may well have been arbing and either is now unable to do so or has chosen not to.  The inability to get on with bookmakers is a factor in regards to liquidity on the exchange on smaller markets in particular.

There are many reasons why liquidity is so poor which all boil down to there's not enough profit (relative to the effort and risk) in providing it.  There's an element of chicken and egg syndrome because the liquidity is needed to fuel demand.  The reason why turnover in horse racing is in the last 5 minutes is because that is the only profitable window for large liquidity.

Betfair's whole exchange model is dependent on winners.  This idea that they are bad for business is bunkum.  Without them there is no Betfair.  Granted there will be a small percentage of winners (insiders, clock beaters, £2 parasites etc. that aren't any good)
Report CLYDEBANK29 August 24, 2012 7:51 PM BST
"One slight improvement would be to ban the 1.01 layers on every sub market. Parasites should have their accounts closed."

They are probably "keep bets" ensuring that they are always first in the queue at the low end which is a clear strategic advantage.
Report Getafix August 25, 2012 12:47 AM BST
The problem for straight bettors and subsequently the exchange is the fact that the PC charge reduces the incentive to provide liquidity.  In years past, my traditional losing months - October to December I would still bet large in order to keep my commission rate at 2%.  With the 40% PC tax there is no longer any incentive.  At 2% commission level, I lose an additional 20% of my weekly profit in PC (on those weeks I win).  This turns out for me equivalent to paying 5% commission a year (effectively about 40% of all my profit is lost to PC and commission).  So this year I won't be betting at my normal levels October to December, the PC charge means it just isn't worthwhile.  I expect this is the major reason for such reductions in liquidity!

With regards to the arguments of trying to provide liquidity in "other" break even markets to reduce PC is insanity.  Why bet where you haven't an edge?  Even if you are lucky enough to have 0-1% edge, variance can and will still likely screw you over (over an extended period of time)!  It just isn't worth the risk! You just have to take the charge on the chin. 

Unfortunately though, Betfair's greed (or should I say, charging the wrong people) will most likely lead to its own demise.
Report racingguru August 25, 2012 2:28 AM BST
Getafix - I'm not a PC payer ....yet and straight bet, never trade. Do you agree with me that the  problem with betfair not getting enough revenue is that the traders don't pay nearly their due? The BF greed is a given but as as business I don't begrudge them that.
Report Getafix August 25, 2012 6:00 AM BST
racingguru, my thoughts on this is that the PC is just a measure to appease shareholders.  The notion that "the exchange didn't work pre PC" (as keeps getting peddled by people like frog2) is just plain rubbish.  It is easy to prove, just look at the facts: check out BF's p&l for the years before the PC was introduced.  Check out the thread by the user "Nemesis" (Stephen Morana - BF financial director) regarding pooled funds where he mentions (pre PC introduction) about BF making lots of profit so no need to worry about money deposited here etc.

Now the fact that BF was NOT struggling pre PC and now people are noticing less liquid markets, it can be either down to:
1) the bigger players no longer having to provide liquidity in order to keep a beneficial commission level.
2) the recession - probably not, as betting companies usually thrive during recession.
3) the markets are in fact as liquid as they always were - real proof is needed here.  Magician once ran a thread comparing turnover but stopped posting for some reason?  Problem though is turnover doesn't show risk per market which is the figure we would really have to see.  This information is only privvy to betfair.
4) the fact that betfair continue to keep live the "new" website when it clearly is not working - very buggy.  This will not help in retaining/attracting customers.
Report Getafix August 25, 2012 6:02 AM BST
*btw, when I refer to PC above, I mean the latest incarnation (the 40% - 60% one).
Report henok August 25, 2012 1:33 PM BST

Aug 23, 2012 -- 11:27AM, frog2 wrote:


Its a difficult one. The Betfair business model we all knew and loved was flawed. A few big players making huge demands of the servers trading making big steady profits was sucking the pot dry. For those that complain about the charges tell me an alternate solution that would work.It was only with the Premium Charge coming in and the logic of it being explained to me that I realised how much easier it is to make money trading (gambling on price movements) rather than gambling on outcomes. The basic commission structure coupled with steady rather than big up and down profits still massively favours trading to outright betting on here.The charges are extremely complex. Its a matter of optimising your activity on here to minimise charges.If you are on 2% commission you should be able to end up paying a long term commission rate of 33% on gross profits with no transaction or data request charges. But in order to do this you have to be willing to do your bit putting real liquidity into Betfair. By real liquidty I mean leaving open bets until the conclusion of events and bet enough so your overall ROI is very low.It makes sense now to place very marginally profitable bets or even slightly loss making bets in order to get rid of the extra charges. This in turn should bring more liquidity to the exchange. I am surprised no one is matching those bets if they are 'fair value' as it would reduce fees elsewhere. The big problem is the ever moving goal posts. Having invested 6 months in building a model to price Australian racing a 49 market per week limit came in. So that had to be binned.


spoi on. betfair have to ban all big winners, say above 50000 a year. and encourage medium winners to provide the necessary liquidity

Report Chilly the Dog August 25, 2012 5:53 PM BST
It's not just PC that's reducing liquidity. The legal situation in Europe is a bloody nightmare. Cyprus, France, Germany, Italy, Spain,...all either off or at risk. Between them that's a whole load of people trying to get on or run their seeding strategies. Australia is a whole other can of worms, damn turn over tax there has knackered the BF business model entirely.
Report Templeton Peck August 26, 2012 4:45 PM BST
A weekly/monthly personal allowance for the PC charge and changing it from weekly to monthly for calculation purposes seems a sensible compromise to me.  I rarely frequent this forum and have not researched the reasons for PC though.  I just know someone like me shouldn't be paying 50%.
Report askari1 August 26, 2012 8:15 PM BST
Clydebank: Betfair's whole exchange model is dependent on winners.  This idea that they are bad for business is bunkum.

But on the horses the incumbent layer winners are winning by purely technical means. Bf's model means that the 'winning' or competent tissue-maker who is doing half their job for them is giving up his work virtually for free.

If it's nigh-on impossible, even w/ placers now, to get on at the High St. betting on horses has become an exercise in frustration with the prices inching down to fair value w/out anything substantial being matched.
Report ballabriggs August 28, 2012 6:15 AM BST
Make markets with poor liquidity PC free.  That benefits everyone.  Give a guarantee that for all of the next 12 months, or calendar year etcetera, so everyone knows that a boost in liquidity won't result in instant PC being charged, and time spent in making prices on these markets go unrewarded at a stroke.  It is better for the side markets to grow, than to have PC kill them completely.  60% PC of nothing, is nothing.  PC needs to be more flexible.  Problem solved.
Report Escobar. August 28, 2012 9:37 AM BST
perhaps its the arber who can no longer get on with the bookie and nothing to do with betfair at all.
Report askari1 August 30, 2012 10:37 PM BST
Escobar, you don't have to be an arber, just a best-price punter. If you know what the price is on here, the High St doesn't want you full stop.

And if you're up, they'll limit you to nothing even if you're taking unders.
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