General Betting
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10 Jul 12
19:37
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Date Joined:
27 Apr 04
I want to make a simple probability table based on 2yo's that have had only two previous runs.
If 'rule true' includes horses that came in first on both starts, should 'rule false' include horses that came 2nd or worse on both previous starts (like this):
Rule is: pos. 1 in prev. start and next prev. start
[i]Total Win Lose SR Prob[i]
Rule True: 126 30 96 23.9% 2.20
Rule False: 26348 2857 23491 10.8% 0.46
..or, horses that came 2nd or worse in the last start, but 1st in the start before that (like this?)
Rule is: pos. 1 in prev. start and next prev. start
[i]Total Win Lose SR Prob[i]
Rule True: 126 30 96 23.9% 1.31
Rule False: 425 77 348 18.1% 0.76
If 'rule true' includes horses that came in first on both starts, should 'rule false' include horses that came 2nd or worse on both previous starts (like this):
Rule is: pos. 1 in prev. start and next prev. start
[i]Total Win Lose SR Prob[i]
Rule True: 126 30 96 23.9% 2.20
Rule False: 26348 2857 23491 10.8% 0.46
..or, horses that came 2nd or worse in the last start, but 1st in the start before that (like this?)
Rule is: pos. 1 in prev. start and next prev. start
[i]Total Win Lose SR Prob[i]
Rule True: 126 30 96 23.9% 1.31
Rule False: 425 77 348 18.1% 0.76
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Replies: 4
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Well i presume the set (Rule True + Rule False) should cover all 2yo's. On that basis, Rule False should include horses that have won just one of the two races (either start) or have finished 2nd or worse on both starts.
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Now I think about it, of course T & F should cover all 2yo's.
Sometimes I just can't see the bleedin' obvious. Thanks Andriy |
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wouldnt it be all 2yo's that have had the two starts, i.e exclude any with just 1 start. I assume you have no data on unraced horses to exclude.
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Yes I was excluding any with 1 or 3 starts. I was taking the data from Adrian Massey's site to compare with my own.
(I don't suppose anyone would know how to 'mine' his data would they? - it's really long-winded getting anything via his interface) |