General Betting
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I have read many times (and do not doubt) that if you take a large sample of football games and compare the exchange odds at kick-off to the outcomes, on average the odds will be roughly correct. Would you not also have similar findings if from the same sample of games, you compared the exchange odds 30 minutes before kick-off to the outcomes?
Secondly, what would the true odds be in the following scenario: 30 minutes before kick-off, Team A are 2.8. At the scheduled kick-off time, Team A are 2.6. For a reason unrelated to either team (eg. a corner flag is missing, the ball is defective), the kick-off is delayed by 10 minutes. By the time of the actual kick-off, Team A are 2.5.
Secondly, what would the true odds be in the following scenario: 30 minutes before kick-off, Team A are 2.8. At the scheduled kick-off time, Team A are 2.6. For a reason unrelated to either team (eg. a corner flag is missing, the ball is defective), the kick-off is delayed by 10 minutes. By the time of the actual kick-off, Team A are 2.5.
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Replies: 9
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The actual kick-off price should be the most accurate.
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I agree with the point that a delayed kick off will typically see the odds move further .It happens with Horse Racing, when they are about to go but a horse gets loose and it goes off 10 minutes late . The 'correct' odds on what seemed to be the off will be different when they finally do go.
Maybe it gets more accurate the longer there is to bet . But i'm not sure. The % of mug money involved is greater in the last 10-15 minutes than at other times, because you get all the bets from punters who just go from race to race, match to match, without doing any research etc I've seen stats showing the accuracy of kick off odds (on average) and don't doubt them, but are they significantly more accurate than the odds for 90 minutes before( which i've never seen)? .In football the late team news should make the final prices more accurate, but on many sports all relevant factors should be publically available several hours before. |
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If they did reflect the true odds , after commision it would be impossible to win , and that simply isnt true .
The art is being able to price up a match and back/ lay accordingly . I'd say many teams odds to not reflect their true chance . |
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I have found ( on football only) that as soon as markets form into a reasonable overround ( say under 102.5 %), the odds then are as as good overall as at any time thereafter up to KO time.
I go into markets at pretty random times and my analysis shows that my results do not differ at all really from if I was to go into them all just before KO time. |
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The reference to true odds is taken over a large sample and is making an assumption, based on the average of that large sample. As Zealot says, the smaller that sample size is, the less accurate it becomes. You simply cannot win on the punt if every market represents true odds. The winning is in this being wrong.
So while you can take 100 10 dollar shots, and find that 10 of them will come home, somebody else may have backed 10 of them and got 2 home. The reason he would do this, is because he thinks the odds are wrong, and they represent value. You can't have value, at true odds. eg 2 10 dollar shots. Ones true odds is 6.67. The others, 20.00. Together, they average 10 dollars, and are therefore averaging true odds, but alone, neither of them represent true odds. |
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ergo... finding said 'value' is the object of all our gambling, consciously or not.
good thread, GL all. |
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BJT 11 Jun 12 04:04
The reference to true odds is taken over a large sample and is making an assumption, based on the average of that large sample. As Zealot says, the smaller that sample size is, the less accurate it becomes. You simply cannot win on the punt if every market represents true odds. The winning is in this being wrong. ________________ ^^here's your answer Chegu |
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the odds at any time reflect prediction of result based on information available regarding circumstances under which a future event will take place and outcomes will be determined. and it is logical to expect the information regarding a future outcome to be more accurate as we are close to the event. therfore, if we assume the bf prices at some time reflect true probability of an event, then that time have to be just before the start of the game.
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For horses I doubt the prices at off are far off "true odds" but it wouldn't surprise me if it were 3% or so off due to mug money late, over betting steamers etc.
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