General Betting
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Starting with just a £25 bank... I doubt it
Bet 1 - Wales Open 2012 / Winner
Thongchai Jaidee Lay 20266241264 03-Jun-12
11:58 4.3 5.26 4.3
Bet 1 - Wales Open 2012 / Winner
Thongchai Jaidee Lay 20266241264 03-Jun-12
11:58 4.3 5.26 4.3
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Replies: 28
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The idea of a set target per day is flawed. Some days there may be no value bets, other days there may be several. Bet accordingly.
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And Jaidee wins by 1. Back to the drawing board. Tough luck OMarmy
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hundreds of value bets every day - just need to find them
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Don't be too ambitious with a small bank! I would be content to make £1 a day for 100 days with a bank of £25...........and i certainly wouldn't be gambling but trading!
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Focusing on a fixed amount per day will most definitely be your downfall.
Sorry about your first bet. |
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no such thing as a value bet so there are none any day. £5 a day....if you are good/lucky its possible. gets easier as bank increases as long as you dont increase the £5 target......but most will
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Wasn't prepared to hold my position in the over/under 212.5 point market as these 2 could easily put a 60 point final 1/4 so Greened Out!
 annoying |
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Oh I thought i was in the NBA Playoff thread with that last post, do forgive me!
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takethestand
no such thing as a value bet so there are none any day. Best laugh of the day ~ please keep betting What a statement! |
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i'll go one further and says its a made up buzz word to achieve certain things depending on the gambler.
To justify a losing bet or to make the work put in by punters seem more legitamate to those they are talking to0. (not that i'm saying its not) |
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i'll go one further and says its a made up buzz word to achieve certain things depending on the gambler.
To justify a losing bet or to make the work put in by punters seem more legitamate to those they are talking to0. (not that i'm saying its not) |
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i'll go one further and says its a made up buzz word to achieve certain things depending on the gambler.
To justify a losing bet or to make the work put in by punters seem more legitamate to those they are talking to0. (not that i'm saying its not) |
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i'll go one further and says its a made up buzz word to achieve certain things depending on the gambler.
To justify a losing bet or to make the work put in by punters seem more legitamate to those they are talking to0. (not that i'm saying its not) |
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takethestand
So ~ On a Saturday I back or lay every horse at a particular meeting according to my tissue, which gives me a regular profit. You think that is just luck ~ luck that has lasted years, each year betting or laying around 5,000 horses. |
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no but its not value either
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So if a horse has a 90% chance of winning a race, yet the price is 2/1 - what do you call this phenomenon?
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Lol at tts. If there is no such thing as value I'd like you to explain the phenomenon of prices.
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I wish to express my opinions on this subject of value within Betfair horse racing markets. My opinions may be in line with what takethestand is saying, at this point in the discussion it is not clear to me if that is the case. It may well become apparent in due course.
It has been said many times on here that Betfair horse racing markets are efficient at the off. This statement could be taken issue with but it will serve as a baseline for the value discussion and examples. If I choose to back all horses (just before the off) that are priced at 10/1 (11.0 decimal) then I could reasonably expect to get (on average) 1 winner in every 11 selections. So, in 11 bets 1 would be a winner and the other 10 losers. I would break even were it not for the fact that I have to pay Betfair commission on my winning bet. The important point in the above paragraph is that no assessment has taken place regarding the selections other than the odds criteria. It would be wrong to say that value was part of the equation that is governing these 11 transactions because there has been no attempt on my part to factor it in, if there is a value element present it is simply there because of the 100% efficiency of the markets. So, when people talk about value on here what they are actually saying is that they are trying to prove that the markets are not 100% efficient and that they are trying to back only those horses wich will have a better strike rate than their odds imply. The passage of time is a factor in all of this in my opinion. If |
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You see swift, that's a more long term approach. Some of the 11.0's you back will be 8.0s truly, some will be 14.0, it will average out in the long term. However, singling out the ones that are the 8.0s and below etc. is the aim of the game.
Some can find the value, some will misread it but it's an absolute fact that it exists and money can be made by finding it. |
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I don't think efficiency is the key. A market can be efficient but still have inaccuracies. How do you think an efficient market forms? It is merely the consensus of everyone involved - that doesn't make it correct.
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What CrowsEye posted says it all.
The ones that are available at 11.0 and your tissue is less you back it, if your tissue is more than 11.0 you lay it. That's what is meant by getting value.(that's if your tissues are fairly accurate) |
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The markets are "efficient" ....meaning near to 100% book. No one needs to prove they are not....as this is all "efficient" means .
However, even though each race has an "efficient" market, there will be huge differences in value in odds for a race. Was the OAKS winner value at 20-1 SP? Was the DERBY winner value at 8-13F ? Clearly the OAKS winner was, if you ranked it high up the ratings.......but there will be many who don't believe the DERBY winner was value....even though it was very very likely to win that race. It would be top rated for the race.....but it is still a matter of how much value you want from a bet, and IMO the derby winner was poor value.....though I backed it small  ....just cover the other bets on race.Value is there in almost every race.......provided you know what you are looking for. If you can't see it.....then the chances are you are too limited in your knowledge on a race. |
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yeah,never chase a set target ,that's mental
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I'll try and find time later today to explain my feelings towards value as a properly structured arguement.
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tts, your argument won't last very long... whatever you want to call it doesn't matter, 'value' or 'edges' exists and is the only real way to make money long term.
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bob
racingpost tissue 400 fontwell sahrati 20/1 . on here to back now at 3.6 |
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Crows eye, I have no argument with the term 'edge'
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"A value bet is a bet which, if made within these parameters each time, is expected to produce long-term value for the bettor. Value betting is betting on a margin that will win a more favourable percentage than it will lose."
If you are making long-term profits, you are finding value, whether you realise it or not. If you are losing, you are not. If you have an edge, then you have a value bet. |