Fixed odds betting even worse than expected

Just saw that a few players are far better oss on the fixed odds site.

The spread on Mannassero on the exchange is 34 - 36.
  The fixed odds site have him as 46.  I tried to back him for a few hundred quid, but got the message " The stake exceeds the maximum for this selection."  I then tried with a 100 quid and got the same message. I kept lowering my stake all the way down to the minimum and even then I got the same message

The example they give on the service page is the Champions League final,  you can switch from a 100% exchange book to a 109% fixed odds book.  Why would anyone want to do that?  Is the fixed odds commission free?

just had a look an an early market which betfair say is not so good on the exchange.
France v England euro 2012 match odds

france  2.8 exchange........2.62 fixed odds
england 2.9 exchange .......2.62 fixed odds
draw    3.3 exchange .......3.1 fixed odds

The adverts use to say 20% better odds on Betfair, but now they can say x% worse odds on betfair.

Why did they employ a crack team of odds compilers at great expense when this is all they can come up with.

It looks like betfair do not want to be the home of the bookies mug punter, but they do want to be the home of the ..

SUPER MUG PUNTER

@RichWill If you're someone who's paying 20% premium charge it would make sense. And yes, I understand it's commission free.

If someones paying PC do you really think they'd be accepting decent amounts though basket? I'd imagine they'll be limiting winning exchanges punters quicker than 365

read eddie's post, i am sure he is a pc payer, they have already limited him, in fact they have limited him to zero.

The following bets could not be placed
Back (Bet For)     Odds     Stake     Profit
Peru v Nigeria
Peru Match Odds     1.8     £100.00     £80.00
The stake exceeds the maximum for this selection.

What ! Lets try 50

The following bets could not be placed
Back (Bet For)     Odds     Stake     Profit
Peru v Nigeria
Peru Match Odds     1.8     £50.00     £40.00
The stake exceeds the maximum for this selection.


Peru v Nigeria
Peru Match Odds     1.8     £10.00     £8.00
Bet Ref: O/007883x/0000001 Bet matched: 15:55 23-May

Yay

Peru now 1.75

@Ghetto Joe We'll have to wait and see I suppose, although I do share your doubts. For those PC payers who are primarily traders, Betfair may take a more bullish stance re taking decent-size straight up bets. But that also remains to be seen.

With regards the fixed odds product as a whole, it's clearly still in test stages - available liquidity is being kept at artificially low levels so as not to expose Betfair too much during a time when there will be very few users. If it ends up doing what it says it will (providing liquidity to unformed, edge markets) it will be an interesting proposition.

Should stick to trading crack in my opinion.

Your £10 has forced the sportsbook to slash their odds to 1.7 now, modk . Luckily the exchange is holding firm at 1.79/1.8, the firms must be quaking in their boots with Betfair offering 110% books

How do you get to the fixed odds site - I could do with a laugh.

i do hope that there are very clear distinctions made when they choose to advertise their sportsbook products, clearly making explicit distinctions and reference to which one of their two products offers the value they consider to be their usp.

Dstyle look at their advert for fixed odds on this site.  Hopefully the advert will change, but currently it is very misleading about the value of their fixed odds.  Take a look at their correct score comparisons between the exchange and fixed odds.  It implies that their may be good value with their fixed odds, when in reality they offer poor value with their over rounds.

I can see the traditional bookmakers having a field day with their own adverts comparing betfair to them, with just as vague claims, using betfair fixed odds to snipe at the brand of betfair and it's exchanges.

expect that one day betfair will make the fixed odds market more accessible to mug punters leaving the exchange for the pros

But exchange need mug punters- need their bets... Why do they need that? It's clearly means less bet on exchange...

not if they funnel the fixed odds bets through to the exchange

and if they do that, does anyone think the fixed odds site will pay commission on their exchange bets?

as i've said before, i'm fascinated to see if there are any interdependencies between the two products.

Agree with Henok.Its pretty obvious by now that they want to morph into a sportsbook without saying as much.They will make the exchange part more unusable, complex and uninviting to newbies as they possibly can.IMO.

The amusing bit will happen when they knacker up the liquidity on the exchange and don't know how to price up their fixed odds because there's nothing left to nick.

They seem to think this chap from Laddies is capable of taking on the world with his innovative algorithms.

They've obviously never used Laddies.

Where is it?

You can only access it off the beta site. It's crap odds just like b etdaq's 1bet. I bet they limit in next to no time aswell.

Shame there's not many pro bookmakers about.

You need to use Beta to see it and it's not in use for all markets.
  It's there in the winners market for BMW PGA Championship in golf.
It's also there for (some) football matches.

Are you sure they aren't just copying Bodog's prices and reducing them by 1%?

That's all the square books do, they copy each others odds. Ban winners, allow the mug punters and promote multiples which are the most unlikely to win bets. Damn man.

I'm looking at the prices for Georgia vs Turkey and have looked at 5 markets so far.  Worse (generally) or the same odds (usually) than Bodog on every single outcome.  I'm using Bodog as an example as imo its the worst fixed odds betting company there is.

I instinctively knew Bodog was the benchmark

I instinctively knew Bodog was the benchmark

This is one of the best posts I've ever seen

on in a fair amount of the tennis.

monfils/baker

1.29/1.3  on the exchange

1.2/1.31 on the fixed odds.

which would seem to indicate that they're not pumping into the exchange and that they're pricing up in line with bookies who all seem to have monfils much shorter than here at the moment.

Massive margins. 116% market on the set betting in that match.

I think Pinnacle Sports is safe for the time being.

Maybe all us cynics have this wrong, perhaps they're offering the worst prices in the industry to drive people into the exchange

I'm trying to back a player e/w in the golf fixed odds. Unable. Whats going on here?

I tried betting on a selection, and the maximum I was allowed was £2.

Never been e/w markets on Betfair and I don't think this fixed odds has been added to the golf place markets yet.

I've found one market where they are pricing up a book where the exchange is empty so far.
Football->Poland v Slovakia->Correct Score. The exchange has 2.2 for all selections, the fixed odds is priced up to 140% (so hardly taking much risk here).

Just tried to place a £11 bet and it got knocked back

Reduced stakes until bet accepted. Nice to see that the site doesn't bother to show P&L for your 'matched' bet. The 'Open Bets' tab also claims I have no bets on the market either. Typical untested, unreliable Betfair product.

One more point... the football correct score markets don't have a 'any unquoted' selection for their fixed odds offering.

Are they going to run it in play?

I suppose there's probably not an official definition of "fixed odds" but I find it a strange description of this new venture.

Are fixed odds basically just bets with a known return if successful? Like every bet I place on the exchange.

I suppose there's probably not an official definition of "fixed odds" but I find it a strange description of this new venture.

Are fixed odds basically just bets with a known return if successful? Like every bet I place on the exchange.

I suppose there's probably not an official definition of "fixed odds" but I find it a strange description of this new venture.

Are fixed odds basically just bets with a known return if successful? Like every bet I place on the exchange.

May 23, 2012 -- 12:26PM, the silverback wrote:

They seem to think this chap from Laddies is capable of taking on the world with his innovative algorithms.

"Thank you for your confidence on taking your exchange into the future.  As well, the additional £610,000 on top of my salary to put further development into a unique logarithm for your system.

"I would like now to present to you, THE future in betfair as portrayed in a simple formula.

"With X equaling the odds on offer on the exchange, the formula, costing over a million pounds....is......

X times .9327469888

"Thank you".


(exit stage left...sound of sports car starting in park zooming away...)

it seems to me, after a bit of thought, that this could be a valuable addition to the site if:

i. by default you would always initially attempt to place your bet on the exchange

ii. you would be presented with the option to have your bet matched by the fixed odds product if:

a. your bet could not be matched in full on the exchange
b. the odds you requested were better in the fixed odds product after taking into account commission.

alternatively, should the customer place a bet using the fixed odds product and request a bet which could be matched a better price on the exchange (after taking account into commission), they are offered the opportunity to place the bet on the exchange.

it's one thing for a bookmaker to accept a bet in the knowledge that his competitors may be offering a better price, but the concept that a better price is available on the same site but not making your customers directly aware of it, seems like sharp practice to me.

I wonder if the crack team will fill an order in the exchange placed at a worse price than they are showing?

EG
'fixed odds' back price is 2.2, I enter order on exchange to back at 2.  Does it just sit there?  Does the crack team fill it?  Does an arber come along and fill it and do the other leg on 'fixed odds'?  They always said they were not active on the exchange (bar multiple hedging)


Fixed odds is really a stupid name.  Almost this entire site is fixed odds.  It's like M&S bringing out a new product range called
'clothes'.

Watching everything evolve, it is a product that was not developed with the exchange in mind BUT one that would use the exchange.

Thus a myriad of logarithms that kick into action with each bet placed either (a) hedging any risk by "the bookmaker" or (b) generating income through commissions by matching on the exchange.

The latter point, betfair has worked to allow more bets to be matched.  Cross matching has done that and with each successful cross-match comes a commission.  We should be happy since our positions are being matched more.  I see it as beneficial.  I see more positions filled allowing me to move forward quicker, especially positioning for in-running on several horses.  Those that weren't happy were those who, like myself, made money by playing a combination of positions based on traders moving to fill positions or taking advantage of gaps in the market for a quick trade.

Research (even casually by myself) shows that a great portion of the public still don't understand exchanges or are intimidated (think back to when you started.  the only advantage I had was I traded on the stock market.  Even then, the back/lay/multi-position took a while).  early "success stories" were people like Raj Patel laying successfully but not multiple horses in a race.  DJSunset had success by finding value in the trades of punters pushing prices out of perspective (it still happens in tennis today / less so in football).

Betfair tried explaining the exchange to the public but it is pointless. Come the grand national, they want to click and take their bet.  Same with weekend footie from their phone.  Betfair are simply creating another bookmaking option.

What is interesting is that their ad campaign which should be affective, is doing price comparison - something the public love.  What is interesting is it is prices on the EXCHANGE **yet** most of the punters they capture will simply go to the fixed odds site.

It also allows betfair to promote themselves in other ways. And, eventually, betfair kiosque high street shops will be there if, for no other reason, to market the name Betfair.

The risk is not huge since, as someone already pointed out, the ceiling on bets is there.  They still want the "big accounts" to go to the exchange.  That's fine.  5% off of them plus head-to-head liquidity is a good thing.

The only advantage for me is that I do late night baseball / west coast kicks off at 2AM onwards. 

To date, I have been using other bookmakers since liquidity is not there sometimes till after midnight.  I tried finding fixed odds last night but couldn't.  Curious to see if it is "convenient" for me or will I continue to pay in cash at my local Willies.

People expected ground-breaking odds.  Give them time.  They will find the right moments to "promote better fixed odds" and take some chances.  Also, based on hedging and trading through the exchange, their odds movements for fixed, especially once they get enough people using the APP for Fixed (not exchange) will be interesting.

P.S.  The word "fixed" is not best used when talking gambling and sports

when doe,s it start on horses will it be win market only

when doe,s it start on horses will it be win market only

Large scale trap betting imo.

Not that I would want a super competitive bookie competing with me when I want to lay something.

May 24, 2012 -- 7:27AM, Mr.Anderson wrote:

Not that I would want a super competitive bookie competing with me when I want to lay something.

I think that is the point.  For me, as I said, I'm getting tired of waiting till Midnight to start matching my U.S. bets (I can use a bot but as one that "pushes" bots out for my benefit, I don't want to inflate pricing against what I am taking either).

Giving up a small percentage for the convenience, as long as it is the same or better than my local who I visit every night, then I'll take it on.

The odds are terrible it's a waste of time and effort. Better odds on the exchange.
They say it'll be useful for early markets when there's no liquidity in the exchange but if people know the odds aren't very competetive they'll go elsewhere anyway.

I haven't checked their odds on that many markets, but on Bilbao vs Barcelona tomorrow they offer worse odds than bet3_65 on Barcelona to win, Bilbao to win, the draw, and the same or worse on every single correct score (same odds on 3-1, 3-2, 3-3, worse on the rest).

I think they made a mistake getting someone from those crooks at Ladbrokes to help them with it. They should have gone to a pro firm like Pinnacle, Sbobet, Greek who know how to run a bookmakers and then it could have been something.

Looking at the Barca match, correct score market - on the exchange Any Unquoted is 3.25/3.50. As mentioned above Any Unquoted is not included in the fixed odds market. This is the favourite - aren't there rules against this?

Personally I think the whole thing is deeply flawed.

Its like going to a shop with a ground floor and a small first floor.  Everything that is available on the first floor is available downstairs, but only a fraction of the stock.  Yet everything upstairs is more expensive than the same product downstairs.  Why would you bother going upstairs at all?  Its so bleeding obvious you wouldn't.  To make matters worse you can only access upstairs if you enter downstairs so the only customers they will get are customers that have already walked through the door.  It's such a ridiculous waste of their money imo.

i think betfair should by now understand that their market penetrtion in uk has saturated,  hence no further major profit increase.i have a perception that most of their current customers are a little bit more intellegent and experianced than the average bookie customer and are attracted to betfair because of its exchange paltform, and there is no reason for expecting these customers to remain here if they finally decided to be a traditional bookmaker.

they should simply concentrate on being a niche market player in gambling industry using the exchange platform, and improve their profitability through efficient use of capital and labour. this umping from one tree to another wouldnt be good for their reputation .

Aye well said clydebank and henok. I agree with that and it was obvious from the start.

CLYDEBANK29 - Using the shop analogy, I agree that's there no point going upstairs if it is being sold downstairs but I guess the point is that not everything is always stocked on the ground floor; and some of the more niche garments are only available on the first floor.  At the moment, you have to trek down the high street to Ray Winstone's shop to buy that diamante corset when you can't find it in Betfair's shop whereas now you can merely go up the stairs. As and when the shop establishes itself I presume that the intent is that the price of the clothes on the first floor will be as competitive, with the same sorts of sales, as the other options down the road.

henok - don't think Betfair has any intention of reducing the size of its ground floor, if anything I can see them expanding it, and that's always going to be the focus but why not offer a wider array of complementary clothes upstairs?

Think I've exhausted the shop analogy but think DStyle sums it up - could be a useful addition if they get it right.

The thing is pompey if no one is offering it downstairs its because there's barely no demand or it's too difficult to price up.  Betfair won't touch the too difficult markets ever.  As for competitiveness it never will be.  That it is worse value than even Bodog quite clearly shows that they are far too scared of losing to ever being close to being so.

Time will tell anyway.  They've got to improve dramatically and quickly and act more like the big bookmakers regarding this product.   Betfair is meant to be more competitve than the big bookies not less.  That's what the whole current advertising program is based on and that's why people are here.

It will be interesting when betfair fixed odds appear on comparison sites like oddscheker.

I can see bookmakers doing adverts showing how many prices were worse on betfair ( fixed odds), thus by association damaging the brand of betfair and it's exchange.

Betfair's new crack trading team should merge their prices onto the exchange, with the ultimate aim of there always being liquidity on all markets.  Simply going shorter than prices available already at reasonable liquidity is not going to justify the salaries of the "crack" trading team. 

How many times are Betfair going to launch new "GROWTH" strategies, and they turn out to be duds?  This could be a success, but it has the hallmarks of being another LMAX etc.

I can see this becoming a business hari-kiri on a massive scale, a real textbook case.

To make the fixed odds worthwhile, they need to offer 1) prices better than those of other bookies, 2) on markets illiquid on the exchange 3) to everyone 4) up to a generous defined liability.

This might just work by being popular and attracting a spread of business. A spread of business on tight overrounds is all you need to win; you don't need to be a razor-sharp pricer.

In other words, this new fixed offs has to be a pinnacle for sports like racing.

Otherwise they are just going to trash the brand. Rather than cower behind the exchange odds like 1Bet, it would be better if they did nothing.

People are not stupid; they are not going to do significant business with bf fixed odds. The reason people lose is not that they are flat-out ignorant about price; it's more that they risk too much price-insensitively when they are losing and are otherwise indisciplined. If bf close down these people's occasional good bets b/c they can't lay them off, it will be the death-knell for any mass trust.

The stated objective is to attract the 30% or so of bettors' bets that don't go to bf.

I take on 75% of my positions (not counting laying off) in the early markets in various shops. How much of this money do you think I'm going to put on at the prices bf fixed odds will offer?

My guess is 'zilch'.

Why on earth has they pitched the fixed odds this way? Along with other posters I have to think it's Machiavellian and that they want to run the exchange down or make it a shark-pit in order to become the new Bet3.65. The really unthinkable alternative is that they have absolutely no clue why anyone takes an early price.

turned down for a grand on  england in the test match or schiavone tomorrow, despite there being plenty to hedge on the exchange for a nice little arb.

it's an odd state of affairs.

DStyle, I can only assume the fixed odds product is not yet fully functional, hence your and everyone else's inability to get a (decent) bet on. I think we'll have to wait for the Euros to see what it's actually going to be like.

Couldn't even get £10 on. "Their crack trading team" is more of a crap trading team.

Perhaps they're actually on crack. That would explain everything.

One fundamental function of a fixed odds site is the ability to see in advance what you are going to be offered.

There is nothing worse than depositing money to a site to find out you can have feck all on.

Sites such as Pinnacle, 365, Lads, PP all have a readily available way of finding out what your max bet is.  At least they will tell you in advance if the answer is no.

It is to be hoped BF include such a basic feature on their new platform.

Bask3tcase.. On 23 rd May betfair issued the following:

"Today sees the launch of the Betfair Fixed Odds product.   With the added convenience of Fixed Odds alongside Exchange Odds, it’s now easier to get an early bet on at Betfair. Take the Fixed Odds as soon as a market opens or where there are gaps in the market – no need to wait for a price."

If it was launched on 23 rd May, you have to assume that Betfair were happy that the fixed odds were functioning how they intended.

So has anybody manage a bet higher than a tenner with them yet?

Chances are they are going to limit liability for a few weeks.  Come Euro 2012 and Olympics, they will switch off the flutter filter.

Well I found a market on my sport for Leicester v Quins tomorrow in the Aviva Premiership final.  1.40 on Leicester to win the match and it was a total cat and mouse game before I was able to find out that my max bet would be around the £50 mark.

£50 on a 1.40 shot?  I'd get over twice that on my knackered old BlueSq account.

This crack trading team can't believe their luck in getting paid for this nonsense.  What a joke.

After some cat and mouse I just got offered around £50 on Leicester at 1.40 to beat Harlequins tomorrow.

This crack trading team can't believe their luck in getting paid for this nonsense.

I would expect to get at least twice that on my knackered old BlueSq account.  The high street must be quaking at BF's entry to this market.

Sorry first attempt didn't seem to have posted so had to type out again to then find that it had.......

Pretty sure we're in the soft launch phase here - as above, wait for the Euros.

Basket a soft launch might explain the low maximum stakes, but I can't see how it explains the poor prices.

Prices on the old multiples were just as bad so maybe they will be the norm. One of Betfairs directors talks about the product here -
.
http://views.betfair.com/2012/05/fixed-odds-price-switch-button-a-key-step-on-way-to-betfairs-next-generation-sports-site/

Hazel, I'm pretty confident that in low liquidity markets, obscure markets, in-play etc., the prices offered by Betfair on this 'fixed odd' service will be pretty poor in terms of the over-round. I look forward to being proved wrong in this.

However, in high liquidity events, I can only see Betfair offering pretty competitive odds. As least as competitive as Ladcrookes are, for example. Otherwise, what would be the point? Things will certainly become clearer in time. It is intriguing, if nothing else.

Available stakes will be small until they iron out the bugs in their software for front running successful exchange customers (NAP). Not surprising to see they copied Victor's old way of telling you what the maximum stake was. They couldn't have customers placing real bets in a click FFS. At a later date they may even decide that a binary search for the maximum stake falls short of their normal obstacle course.

As mentioned, soft launch most likely and understandable.  With live betting, they will be competitive to the rest of the high street.  They'll know their positions in-running and will be able to hedge accordingly to tempt punters (i.e. a team goes 1-0 early, they will offer solid odds on a 1-3 result, etc).

And, per the video, the advantage I see that when the spread is too wide and I want to place my bets on west coast baseball and go to bed, I'll click.

Could be interesting to see how they set the in running delays for the "sportsbook"

Will they also be offering odds on impossible outcomes as per the exchange?

Ouch, there's a bug with it.  I placed a bet on the Guadalajara vs Almeria game at 1.29 on fixed odds but these have been accepted at 1.28!! - Have contacted betfair helpful but would be grateful if others could try with small stake to see if it happens to them.

The mentality of the people they seem to have hired is that of standard books i.e. not substantially to lay winning customers or positive expectation bets.

This doesn't work for bf, though.

Customers' expectation is that when w/ bf, their bet is not there for them, it's because of other bettors, not some team of traders. To get messages about exceeding the max. available stake erodes trust and imv risks serious reputational damage to the brand.

The trading team should see losses in illiquid markets to people they fill in as marketing spend and as a way of not seeing custom to a rival (where if bets came back to them, they'd be generating lower comm.)

But it is apparently ingrained in head office staff of any bm to want to knock back shrewd price-takers.

You need the opposite view w/ knobs on--to stand any chance you need to attract a spread of business.

* not seeing custom leak to a rival

Well I just got a fixed odds bet on o/u 2.5 goals in the Costa Rica v Guatemala game with score 1-1 for 1.72 when in the exchange odds it was 1.09.  Bet has now won with Costa taking the lead so interested to see if they pay out or if they notify me it was an error.

We've got to hope for them that they're in the teething stages. Hope they pay out for you chewie.

I'm interested in what they will do for horses. Will they offer early prices? Match early and PW box prices when they beat exchange prices? All my arbing business (not my main activity but comfortably in five figs. for any day I'm betting) begins with prices that aren't available on bf.

It wd be astonishing if they were going to replicate these--and jam the price to stop the spot arbers. Actually it wd be heaven for me--but somehow I think they're happy with my business as it is, as I give away value and provide liquidity later on.

Fixed odds on Williams Azarenka semi final of wimbledon. 2 sets 1.5, 3 sets 2.15

That's shocking and shouldn't be allowed. Disgraceful, worse odds than ladcrooks. Can only be doing their reputation a lot of harm.

why call it "fixed odds" anyway? What's that all about, there must be some clueless individuals behind this.

wonder how they did with their standout price on Spain.

The company have cast their net too narrowly for their traders.

They've gone for the 'crap-price/arb-the-customers-or-else-discard-them' school of British fixed odds bookmaking. They shd have looked to people genuinely interested in pricing up risks from the US linemakers like Pinnacle or 3dimes.

The company have cast their net too narrowly for their traders.

They've gone for the 'crap-price/arb-the-customers-or-else-discard-them' school of British fixed odds bookmaking. They shd have looked to people genuinely interested in pricing up risks from the US linemakers like Pinnacle or 3dimes.

It's not even the standard 1/2 6/4 rubbish margins, it's the worst in the industry and they don't even have the shop overheads of the likes of william hill or corals. How can you price a 2 way market 1/2 and 23/20. It's laughable.