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I don't think so
Having worked for a bookmaker whose prices appear on an odds comparison website, I can tell you that the prices that you see are not a reflection of the probability of the outcome in the bookmakers opinion If you fancy that the probability of something happening is 6/1 and the best price out there is 3/1 you would mark up 100/30 or 7/2 to attract custom |
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Unless its 3.9 on the machine, in which case you go 11/4.
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[x], exactly. The variation in tissue prices between bookmakers, let alone between serious punters, is huge. The differences in price offered are minuscule, to prevent arbing.
Were there a tote monopoly with a tiny overround, racing might in all probability make more than it does now, as there would be no alternative for winning price-takers / price-makers to stand their opinion. Notwithstanding the skills of some of their employees (increasingly sidelined), bookmakers' activity would be seen correctly as parasitical, and perhaps a handful of winning punters would be seen as the price of a greater volume of custom. |
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wsn.com will give you the average price in additon to the best one
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(should have added that it's football only though)
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Yes the average odds provided certainly doesn't reflect the true odds! They have to make a profit.
Thanks Andriy. |
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cosmic:
I use txodds, they provide average odds but also more usefully, they use those odds combined with the overrounds of each bookie to estimate probabilities (which I assume is what you wanted to do with them?). |
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Has anybody on here actually studied bookmakers early ( overnight) prices.i.e Do horses that they have priced at say 3/1 win somewhere near 25% of the time etc.?
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I would be interested in a study too. Overnight odds are a lot less accurate than sp odds.
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Is that just an impression you have Askari, or have you done a study and compared them ?
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