paper testing,how long?

you dont get a clear view when paper trading, why not use real money..minimum £2 stakes..if the strike rates as good as you claim, its win win, if not then you have had a fairly cheapish lesson

i agree totally, however am travelling around at the moment and have difficulty getting on. 
too much time in a hotel room for the last two months has set me thinking and studying numbers.  will do small stakes when i get back. 
like i said, it looks too good to be true, i keep looking at my spreadsheets/graphs etc looking for an error and waiting for the light at the end of the tunnel to be train coming.
was just after any opinions. 
this is not a back fitting exercise by the way, it is a live trial, just without pennies involved.

1 million

thanks zealot, that is most definately an opinion.......

don't worry it will all start going t8ts up as soon as real money involved.

The key to a great system is to paper trade it for ever

I think i'll get to 500 selections, then put small stakes on.  i should be back in uk then as well.

I agree with sweetchildofmine.  Never understood the psyche behind paper trading which just seems incredibly boring.  I play poker with friends for very small stakes (£5 buy in) as a social thing.  Its barely anything, but without it, it would be boring and meaningless.

And with paper trading you can be economical with the truth.  Even if you are talking £2 bets there is an undeniable trail.

fair points both.

however i'm meticulous in record keeping, round up all losing selections to make it look worse and obviously include commission at its steepest. 
like most people i'm doubtful of the results when they are good, i think i'm doing something wrong, cocked up my formulas in the spreadsheet or some other stupid error.
last night 12/13 selections came in and i was happier when 10/13 were there, till a couple of late goals improved it for me.  if its too good to be true, it usually is....
i think thats the main reason i'm still paper trading, i'm continuosly checking that i'm doing everything correct and haven't missed something obvious, like forgetting to add VAT onto the estimate for the london olympic budget.....

when the cash is down--god is going to cut you out

after 300 selections at prices up to 6-1 ish - you will have a good idea if it works.

If your reasons for under/ over value are sound you will be up after 300 .

Question, have you an ingredient in your selection procedure
that others have overlooked ? If the answer is yes, then you
have a winning system, but if not, then just a lucky run.
80% strike rate at an average price of winners 1.50ish is
very, very good. GL.

its a laying system..  now stands at 322 winsfrom 400 selections 80.5% strike rate.

average price of all selections is 4.55 so a strike rate of 78% required to break even (not including commission)
average losing price is 3.79 which helps greatly.

i'm not doing anything special, it is simple, nothing that hasn't been mentioned in forums before.  i just look at the selections in a different way. 
reading the book moneyball and then watching the movie on a long boring flight made me look at things differently.

today, 5 selections, 4 wins and the loss well under average price for a 2.4 point profit.

i know the sceptics will want to see bets posted and not after timing, but if i did that its quite obvious what i'm doing.  believe me, don't believe me that is totally up to you, i am just after some opinions from forum-ites, expecting some flak amongst some quite astute obsevations.

I agree with the first reply. Paper trading isn't worth the paper it's written on. It's only when you start applying real money that you see what prices you get in reality (rather than in theory) and often you find other challenges that paper trading leaves you blissfully ignorant of.

80.5% v 78% excluding commission from 400 selections isn't significant by the way.

Good luck, and what are you waiting for ? I don't know
what your staking is normally laying, say 4.5 chances
but however much you do, lay to lose perhaps half of
that. GL.

excellen point cpfc - paper trading means nowt in terms of prices as you never know if in reality you would get matched.

Just ask those who reckon laying every horse at 1.01 is a winner.

again, fair points from all.  i don't disagree with cpfc at all. thanks for the comments.

its good to see constructive comments/critism without being hijacked by neasayers and crazies......