General Betting
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Hi. I would like some thoughts or opinions on the following: If I am able to price up a horse race (to a good degree for arguments sake), then using my tissue prices, bet to either back or lay ANY horse (so could be multiple selections in a race, i.e. 3 poor value lays, 4 good value backs in one race if 10% over/under value), then if based on probability and taking value prices, over the long run (a year) I should (in theory) be in profit. I accept that my ROI would be small, but the turnover would make this worthwhile. What are your thoughts on this sort of approach, or am I barking up the wrong tree? In a nutshell..I would be playing the numbers game. All help and advice would be appreciated. Thank You
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I can't "price up a horse race"......but I can rate horses a race and then use RANKING positions and the odds to find VALUE BACKS and LAYS.
ROI this way , according to stats re strategies on previous rated races, is not "small".......the opposite re WIN BACKS and LAYS in PLACE market especially. All depends on how good you are at "pricing up a horse race".......If you are better than "good", you have a fair chance of making a profit..... GL |
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If your tissue is accurate you will of course win in the long run but it might take you a long time to find out. It's certainly the right approach, I've been using that method for the last nine years on here.
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What are your thoughts on this sort of approach
It's not guaranteed to win, but it's the only approach to pre off backing/laying that is not guaranteed to lose IMO. |
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mtymoney, decide yr bank, be religious about yr staking and go ahead and do it. As Tober says, it's the only way to win.
Start with a small bank and try to learn from where it's likely yr pricing was wrong, esp. if the prices are based on an underlying model w/ weighted variables. Good luck! |
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Thank you for replying. I am keen to try this out. I've seen lots of articles/opinions where people say value is everything. However, most of the time, they will pick one value selection only. I am crap at picking winners. But if I can back or Lay all runners that are value to do so in a race, whether its 1, 2, 5 6 horses then I get the following benefit: I am hedging/dutching my bets when value to do so, and I am dont have to choose one specific horse as I am in theory playing the numbers. By having a 10% over/under value figure I could have a small error margin built in. I think the best way to price up the race/horses would be to find a good solid set of ratings figures as a starting point, and then use a very large bank in terms of points (i.e. a 1000 point bank) so that I can ride out the ups and downs, but more importantly have enough money to put my value orders in the night before work OR use one of those software programs that put the bets in for you (like Grey Horse Bot?)
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If you can price up the market fairly accurately you will make money. Picking winners doesn't come into it as you rightly say, but many punters who claim to understand value betting still think they must pick a winner, they don't actually understand value betting. The price you get means absolutely everything, the result means absolutely nothing, sounds perverse doesn't it!
10% is good to aim for if you can find it and get matched, but your net profit won't end up anywhere near that. I aim for around 10% myself but my net profit is around 2% on turnover for a year, last year I turned over more than 3 million. As said above, if you can find the value the only thing you need to do is stake religiously, which for me is 0.2% of the betting bank per bet. That allows for some pretty heavy losing periods (you can't control the results, only the prices you get) and my worst draw-down last year was approx half of the betting bank over a 2 week period, which is scary at the time but you carry on religiously, and the recovery was just as swift. GL :) |
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mtymoney
Am I understanding you correctly? You're not in a position to price up a race at present and you reckon that when you "find a good solid set of ratings figures" you'll be able to do this? |
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Trev- You say -
"If you can price up the market fairly accurately you will make money. Picking winners doesn't come into it as you rightly say, but many punters who claim to understand value betting still think they must pick a winner, they don't actually understand value betting. The price you get means absolutely everything, the result means absolutely nothing, sounds perverse doesn't it!" ============================================================= Sorry Trev......I think you are more of a FOOTBALL punter than a HORSE RACING punter. With HORSE RACING you do need to try to find the horses more likely to WIN. Therefor you are striving to rate races taking account of all factors for each horse, then RANKING horses in rated order. If you rate races up to a high standard, then most of WINNING horses will be in the top part of ratings and you can identify the VALUE through the RANK position and the odds. If you don't strive to get the WINNER in top part of ratings, then betting strategies based on RATINGS will not produce a high ROI. With FOOTBALL there are only 3 outcomes( runners), provided game is not abandoned etc ). This is far simpler a task compared to rating a race where 20 runners for example! I am basically reffering to MATCH MARKET.......I know the CORRECT SCORE market has more options for betting and there is some reasonable comparison with a horse race. To say - "but many punters who claim to understand value betting still think they must pick a winner, they don't actually understand value betting. " is just not accurate. Getting the WINNER of horse race in top part of ratings is striving to achieve "perfection" ( though , as horse racing is too complex, this is unlikely ever to be achieved with British racing) You then have a system that rates races to high standard that can enable you to find VALUE re BACKS/LAYS by relying on system to be generally "right" on rating races. Generally I agree with you though re VALUE is everything, but you can't do this to get bets ROI without striving to get WINNER of horse race in top part of ratings! GL with bets. |
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but you can't do this to get bets ROI without striving to get WINNER of horse race in top part of ratings!
should read - but you can't do this to get best ROI without striving to get WINNER of horse race in top part of ratings! Too much dust on keyboard !!!! |
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Trevh is spot on, you are a little confused.
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Perhaps it is yersel that is confused CF........
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More ways than 1 to skin a cat....fleppo
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Lol, I'm sure what you do works, I just don't think your analysis is right.
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Was just japing CF
===================================================== I know my betting on FOOTBALL is not taking enough consideration to VALUE......my betting is very CRUDE. I will be betting more IP on FOOTBALL, as the odds can be more VALUE at certain points in game when a view held on outcome can be applied. GL with bets. |
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I have been japed!
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Mtymoney, have you ever thought of laying a full book using your tissue? You wouldn't need such a big bank and I reckon you would learn a lot quicker where you are going wrong.
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Trevh has hit de nail on de head.
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Trying to pick the winner of a race is the mug punter approach. Profitable betting is about finding overpriced horses.
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I agree entirely w/ trev and even artie if I have to. 'Trying to find the winner of a race' and (what you hear commentators sometimes say) 'solving a race' are terribly misleading expressions. You just need to take value bets on either side.
Having said that, a lot of the times there will be an absolute standout back on my tissue and little else of notional value in the race e.g. I think that a horse priced up at 8-1 second fav. on the RP and other oddslines should be 9-2f and is the likely winner. In that kind of scenario, the thing to do is just to take the value bet, reconsider if the market doesn't adjust at all and otherwise manage yr position to exploit the value if the odds move in yr direction. |
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Terry Norman on Betfair radio suggests strongly that you cannot eat value and one should try to find the winner of the race and forget about value. Why do you think Betfair would employ a man with such views ?
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Trevh: my net profit is around 2% on turnover for a year, last year I turned over more than 3 million.
Very revealing figures and congrats. Can I ask how many bets, strike rate, and your starting bankroll (I assume some compounding)? Do you back and lay? Do you level or variable stake? |
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ive booked a flight into space with china with my winnings, also funding a explorer team to find the fountain of youth
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If you are good you will make millions, seriously, if not you will lose. There is no answer to your question.
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Whats "japing" btw?
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OliasOfSunhillow
Terry Norman on Betfair radio suggests strongly that you cannot eat value and one should try to find the winner of the race and forget about value. Why do you think Betfair would employ a man with such views ? Never heard of him, but I guess that's why he's a disc jockey and not a gambler? |
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genelec : Very revealing figures and congrats. Can I ask how many bets, strike rate, and your starting bankroll (I assume some compounding)? Do you back and lay? Do you level or variable stake?
Thanks, although 3 million is peanuts compared to some, but I'm happy to be a small fish :) I play in around 700/800 markets per week. Strike rate - no idea, not something that holds any interest for me. Bankroll - after losing and learning for several years I made my final deposit in August 2009, which was £200. I built that up over the next year, then started withdrawing weekly from August 2010, but still growing the bank. I mostly back, but do a bit of laying on a different strategy, and never green up. Level stakes and increase periodically. |
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3m turnover is hardly peanuts
Thanks for answering though |
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Terry Norman is evidently a jockeys' agent.He clearly doesn't understand the principles of profitable betting.
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