General Betting
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11 Apr 12
20:42
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05 Apr 12
Final speaker booked for 'Improve your betting' conference. Simon Rowlands head of Timeform R&D and Betfair blogger will be presenting a talk on Ratings and oodslines. Further details at www.smartersig.com/Conference2012.html
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Now, how many winners did he manage to pick in his whole time at Racing Post?
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Most oddslines tend to be accurate, outwith the margin, even when appearing out of line with ratings (esp. ORs) because they are taking into account different 'widths' of horses' performance distribution.
For example, a horse best fresh or a horse that hates certain types of ground, or a potential improver for a step up in trip etc., will have longer tails to the range of figs. they can be taken to run to. On the whole, those making a tissue for the bookie will be pre-emptive rather than otherwise, so if there is value at all from reading across from ratings, it is often in workmanlike, not brilliant horses who consistently achieve a certain level of form. |
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oddslines are important but at what time do you apply them ? probably within the last 10 minutes when liquidity is good on bf and less chance of non-runners.....(no bookmakers support these punters do they?)
so if you've done the job well many horses will be in line, then one drifts, you have what you are looking for, VALUE!, or is it, watching on tv you are very unlikely to be seeing the horses and so it could be (usually is) something negative in the prelims, so betting on horse racing remains a gamble |