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...when the bookers put limits for you and in the end you only have a couple good bookers left and you have to take the odds they offer or bet here and pay commissions. Any thoughts?
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value and prices. some horses get well backed.
there will always be value bets, horses their
price will not change. redair 6/1 yesterday
wasnt well backed but is was value. if your
persistent in learning the game, you will
get the breaks.
there will always be value bets, horses their
price will not change. redair 6/1 yesterday
wasnt well backed but is was value. if your
persistent in learning the game, you will
get the breaks.
No, it is clearly impossible for any single person out of the 6-7 billion people on the planet to make enough profit to live off.
It must be because there has and never will be any price offered or available that is value.
It must be because there has and never will be any price offered or available that is value.
"value" can be found in some strange places.
Take a look at Eurovision 2012.Read the conditions and then check the prices.
There is at least one rick .
PS The picture of EH looks remarkably like Harry,no?
Take a look at Eurovision 2012.Read the conditions and then check the prices.
There is at least one rick .
PS The picture of EH looks remarkably like Harry,no?
And who is going to produce the foot we eat if all the people start living on gambling? What is going to happen with the civilization?
Yes it's possible, but it's hard work to make a very moderate living. It just gets harder and harder the more you want to make.
I imagine you need a lot of contacts/friends/army to make the big bucks.
I imagine you need a lot of contacts/friends/army to make the big bucks.
master mind group. invent them in your imagination
and assign them with tasks and develope the qualitys
and skills you need to make the money. you have the
army in your imagination. before you know it , you
will have the sixth sense and pathway to riches.
and assign them with tasks and develope the qualitys
and skills you need to make the money. you have the
army in your imagination. before you know it , you
will have the sixth sense and pathway to riches.
"And who is going to produce the foot we eat if all the people start living on gambling?"
I was going to try and say something funny about how it would have had to have been a very big foot but i fear that my joke would have been abominable.
I was going to try and say something funny about how it would have had to have been a very big foot but i fear that my joke would have been abominable.
Mar 16, 2012 -- 3:11PM, U.A. wrote:
"And who is going to produce the foot we eat if all the people start living on gambling?"I was going to try and say something funny about how it would have had to have been a very big foot but i fear that my joke would have been abominable.
It IS possible but the need to recognise opportunities is paramount.
They are usually few and far between and need biggish stakes when
they arrive.
They are usually few and far between and need biggish stakes when
they arrive.
"And who is going to produce the foot we eat if all the people start living on gambling?"
I was going to try and say something funny about how it would have had to have been a very big foot but i fear that my joke would have been abominable.
Join the club.
I was going to try and say something funny about how it would have had to have been a very big foot but i fear that my joke would have been abominable.
Join the club.
Tying to think of a good reply but nothing has occurred to me yeti
While some might find that prospect unpalatable, on the bright side, others would anticipate a reduction in foot in mouth disease.
many good comments here
I like to think that there are plenty of winning formulas based on pure statistics and mathematics out there still to be found, but so far I haven't come up with any decent
. Maybe I haven't "thought outside the box" enough, but I start to get the feeling that the only way to make profit in the long run is hard discipline, work and patience.
I bet mainly on tennis and I do study statistics and form,I have routines to find bets that in my opinion are good value, but I haven't got a specific formula that I use every time for picking winners. Many of the bookmakers I've used have put limits and I was thinking of starting to place my bets mainly on Betfair in the future. The odds on betfair are usually among the highest, but in my opinion you won't find as many good betting opportunities on here as you do at other bookmakers. Another problem is that Betfair doesn't seem to offer odds for challenger tournaments. Still, I think that i'll give it a go
If here are any winners around, it would be nice to here if you use specific formulas for betting (you don't need to reveal your secret of course
), or if you just got the skills to pick the winner at a decent rate.
I like to think that there are plenty of winning formulas based on pure statistics and mathematics out there still to be found, but so far I haven't come up with any decent
. Maybe I haven't "thought outside the box" enough, but I start to get the feeling that the only way to make profit in the long run is hard discipline, work and patience.I bet mainly on tennis and I do study statistics and form,I have routines to find bets that in my opinion are good value, but I haven't got a specific formula that I use every time for picking winners. Many of the bookmakers I've used have put limits and I was thinking of starting to place my bets mainly on Betfair in the future. The odds on betfair are usually among the highest, but in my opinion you won't find as many good betting opportunities on here as you do at other bookmakers. Another problem is that Betfair doesn't seem to offer odds for challenger tournaments. Still, I think that i'll give it a go
If here are any winners around, it would be nice to here if you use specific formulas for betting (you don't need to reveal your secret of course
), or if you just got the skills to pick the winner at a decent rate.
yossi, this question is asked on here quite frequently, have a bit of a read through the first half of this thread, you may find it useful.
http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25170917/winners-don039t-share-discuss
http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/25170917/winners-don039t-share-discuss
Bookies say, 'winners will always get on', tho' I must say that I've always found it easier to find value bets than to find people who can place them for me.
Compared to the other things I could do, betting is more interesting but harder work for less reward.
Compared to the other things I could do, betting is more interesting but harder work for less reward.
yossi, anyone can pick winners. It's getting the right
prices that is crucial.
prices that is crucial.
anyone cannot find winners, as proven by the losers
on betfair, getting the right price, when its usually
the wrong price. or do you mean few ticks or few points?
kenilworth
on betfair, getting the right price, when its usually
the wrong price. or do you mean few ticks or few points?
kenilworth
Its a war with many battles and not many survive unscathed. Many veterans retire hurt with PTSD and RSI. Glory or death for those that go over the top. Dementia for those that keep digging trenches.
To the OP if people werent making money or enough money on here all you would see is blank screens and Betfair would go bust.
yes ,it is possible to make a living ,but only if you are fluent in Latin and Norwegian ,and at the same time can balance a book on your head while walking the length of the living room .
roadrunner, anyone can bet winners but the prices have to be big enough
to compensate for the losers you will back, that's what I mean.
to compensate for the losers you will back, that's what I mean.
"And who is going to produce the foot we eat if all the people start living on gambling?"
--------------------------------
I was going to try and say something funny about how it would have had to have been a very big foot but i fear that my joke would have been abominable.
---------------------------
Tying to think of a good reply but nothing has occurred to me yeti
Haha, sock it to 'em guys!
--------------------------------
I was going to try and say something funny about how it would have had to have been a very big foot but i fear that my joke would have been abominable.
---------------------------
Tying to think of a good reply but nothing has occurred to me yeti
Haha, sock it to 'em guys!
IdvamOtDaleko : And who is going to produce the foot we eat if all the people start living on gambling? What is going to happen with the civilization?
On a more serious note, the concept of the question is flawed and the answer is simple. The human race is hugely diverse, there will always be people willing to do all sorts of vocations, and where a demand is needed it will always be met, money and profit being the driving force to meet supply and demand.
Gambling is a little different because very few gamblers will ever be successful, many will dabble and disappear, while most people won't even try at all because they've always been told that it's a mugs game, so they'll just stick to doing the National Lottery and scratch cards, ironically :)
I know what you mean though, the back bone of the economy is structured on manual labour - builders, mechanics, hauliers, supermarket workers, farmers, labourers, etc. That's why the UK government (since Labour has gone) has discouraged students from gaining places at universities by pricing the poor out of the opportunity, harsh but realistic, because at the end of the day there's only so many sports scientists, psychologists, climate scientists, media specialists etc the private sector tax revenue and hands on workers can support.
On a more serious note, the concept of the question is flawed and the answer is simple. The human race is hugely diverse, there will always be people willing to do all sorts of vocations, and where a demand is needed it will always be met, money and profit being the driving force to meet supply and demand.
Gambling is a little different because very few gamblers will ever be successful, many will dabble and disappear, while most people won't even try at all because they've always been told that it's a mugs game, so they'll just stick to doing the National Lottery and scratch cards, ironically :)
I know what you mean though, the back bone of the economy is structured on manual labour - builders, mechanics, hauliers, supermarket workers, farmers, labourers, etc. That's why the UK government (since Labour has gone) has discouraged students from gaining places at universities by pricing the poor out of the opportunity, harsh but realistic, because at the end of the day there's only so many sports scientists, psychologists, climate scientists, media specialists etc the private sector tax revenue and hands on workers can support.
IdvamOtDaleko
Date Joined: 01 Oct 06
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And who is going to produce the foot we eat if all the people start living on gambling? What is going to happen with the civilization?
Robots and/or meandering troglodytes. R. Soles will be providing the foot with a proper shoe.
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And who is going to produce the foot we eat if all the people start living on gambling? What is going to happen with the civilization?
Robots and/or meandering troglodytes. R. Soles will be providing the foot with a proper shoe.
Trevh
Date Joined: 21 Jul 06
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IdvamOtDaleko : And who is going to produce the foot we eat if all the people start living on gambling? What is going to happen with the civilization?
On a more serious note, the concept of the question is flawed and the answer is simple. The human race is hugely diverse, there will always be people willing to do all sorts of vocations, and where a demand is needed it will always be met, money and profit being the driving force to meet supply and demand.
Gambling is a little different because very few gamblers will ever be successful, many will dabble and disappear, while most people won't even try at all because they've always been told that it's a mugs game, so they'll just stick to doing the National Lottery and scratch cards, ironically :)
I know what you mean though, the back bone of the economy is structured on manual labour - builders, mechanics, hauliers, supermarket workers, farmers, labourers, etc. That's why the UK government (since Labour has gone) has discouraged students from gaining places at universities by pricing the poor out of the opportunity, harsh but realistic, because at the end of the day there's only so many sports scientists, psychologists, climate scientists, media specialists etc the private sector tax revenue and hands on workers can support.
A more succinct answer would be :
The invisible hand
Date Joined: 21 Jul 06
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IdvamOtDaleko : And who is going to produce the foot we eat if all the people start living on gambling? What is going to happen with the civilization?
On a more serious note, the concept of the question is flawed and the answer is simple. The human race is hugely diverse, there will always be people willing to do all sorts of vocations, and where a demand is needed it will always be met, money and profit being the driving force to meet supply and demand.
Gambling is a little different because very few gamblers will ever be successful, many will dabble and disappear, while most people won't even try at all because they've always been told that it's a mugs game, so they'll just stick to doing the National Lottery and scratch cards, ironically :)
I know what you mean though, the back bone of the economy is structured on manual labour - builders, mechanics, hauliers, supermarket workers, farmers, labourers, etc. That's why the UK government (since Labour has gone) has discouraged students from gaining places at universities by pricing the poor out of the opportunity, harsh but realistic, because at the end of the day there's only so many sports scientists, psychologists, climate scientists, media specialists etc the private sector tax revenue and hands on workers can support.
A more succinct answer would be :
The invisible hand
without giving too much away, gambling has nothing to do with value, ok its great if you can get it, but how many winners do you not back because its not value.
the real value is operating like the bookies do, statistics.
be it football or horses the odds are stacked against you if you dont know what the bookies main criteria is in pricing up events.
football, you can back 2-1 scoreline or any other scorline every match and never make a profit.
you can count on 2 hands the number of times the top 5 in the league have all won in the same week since the premier legue began.
horse racing, top jockeys and trainers have 30/40 mounts/entries a week, only need 6 a week to be champion jockey or trainer.
so they lose 24, go figure how the bookies use that.
the real value is operating like the bookies do, statistics.
be it football or horses the odds are stacked against you if you dont know what the bookies main criteria is in pricing up events.
football, you can back 2-1 scoreline or any other scorline every match and never make a profit.
you can count on 2 hands the number of times the top 5 in the league have all won in the same week since the premier legue began.
horse racing, top jockeys and trainers have 30/40 mounts/entries a week, only need 6 a week to be champion jockey or trainer.
so they lose 24, go figure how the bookies use that.
without giving too much away, gambling has nothing to do with value, ok its great if you can get it, but how many winners do you not back because its not value.
the real value is operating like the bookies do, statistics.
be it football or horses the odds are stacked against you if you dont know what the bookies main criteria is in pricing up events.
football, you can back 2-1 scoreline or any other scorline every match and never make a profit.
you can count on 2 hands the number of times the top 5 in the league have all won in the same week since the premier legue began.
horse racing, top jockeys and trainers have 30/40 mounts/entries a week, only need 6 a week to be champion jockey or trainer.
so they lose 24, go figure how the bookies use that.
the real value is operating like the bookies do, statistics.
be it football or horses the odds are stacked against you if you dont know what the bookies main criteria is in pricing up events.
football, you can back 2-1 scoreline or any other scorline every match and never make a profit.
you can count on 2 hands the number of times the top 5 in the league have all won in the same week since the premier legue began.
horse racing, top jockeys and trainers have 30/40 mounts/entries a week, only need 6 a week to be champion jockey or trainer.
so they lose 24, go figure how the bookies use that.
basically so bnm, people on here are wasting there time and money and its just because they are addicted they continue to push ahead thinking everything will work out.
Luck, timing and discipline are essentials that a lot of punter need but cant achieve, me included.
Luck, timing and discipline are essentials that a lot of punter need but cant achieve, me included.
without giving too much away, gambling has nothing to do with value,
the real value is operating like the bookies do, statistics
Contradicting yourself there BNM
Bookies work out the true price as best they can, then offer a worse price.
That is what Value Bettors on here do.
the real value is operating like the bookies do, statistics
Contradicting yourself there BNM
Bookies work out the true price as best they can, then offer a worse price.
That is what Value Bettors on here do.
But more importantly they don't even need to price it up correctly as long as they take enough money on both results, that as long as they don't mis-price so badly only one side gets matched, they can easily hedge a profit before any outcome.
bmm is right, the true money made, including on here, is made by people who get money matched on every result, in other words they get money matched on 'both sides' of the market, giving *even* better value.
That's different to value punting, but is still a form of value, but it's the only way to make real money. And because a side effect is reduced commission compared to turnover, it's also why PC was introduced.
bmm is right, the true money made, including on here, is made by people who get money matched on every result, in other words they get money matched on 'both sides' of the market, giving *even* better value.
That's different to value punting, but is still a form of value, but it's the only way to make real money. And because a side effect is reduced commission compared to turnover, it's also why PC was introduced.
Anyone with a mind to do it can reverse-engineer how a big winner wins.
Let's say that he is making 60k a year with an implied advantage of 0.3% a bet. It's not difficult to work out how many bets he has to take and in what size to make his target.
It then becomes slightly more difficult to figure out which prices he takes/offers (and which he doesn't).
But after the aspirational bettor has worked out all that out, he might well decide to give up betting and go off and train as an accountant instead.
Let's say that he is making 60k a year with an implied advantage of 0.3% a bet. It's not difficult to work out how many bets he has to take and in what size to make his target.
It then becomes slightly more difficult to figure out which prices he takes/offers (and which he doesn't).
But after the aspirational bettor has worked out all that out, he might well decide to give up betting and go off and train as an accountant instead.
without giving too much away, gambling has nothing to do with value
dont think there's much chance you'll be giving much away
dont think there's much chance you'll be giving much away
bnm 19 Mar 12 23:13
without giving too much away, gambling has nothing to do with value, ok its great if you can get it, but how many winners do you not back because its not value.
All of them.
without giving too much away, gambling has nothing to do with value, ok its great if you can get it, but how many winners do you not back because its not value.
All of them.
its about having an edge/knowing something the bookies dont.a tennis player unwell.a horse expected to show better (or worse) than it has to date.a row or low morale in a football team .if you are depending on straight betting between you and bookie you on a lose because you are not getting the true price of something happening.
In order of importance its about:
1 the market place
2 motivation
3 judgement
4 discipline
5 courage
1 the market place
2 motivation
3 judgement
4 discipline
5 courage
I think I've come up with winning methods in my life, and I've currently got the 2nd one. The first one was a winning system but took up literally all of my time. I could win money, but do nothing else! I got bored and felt negative because of that. Winning money is one thing, but how you feel about your life is just if not more important!
People on here often knock the 'casual' punters approach, but in my view the best balance is to make a decent sideline from gambling, but have an additional life and pursuit alongside that.
Lay favourites (any sport) that have very little chance of winning compared to the odds they are being offered at. cf Liverpool tonight
Well that's obviously the theory, but how do you go about determining what their real chances are? That's the key.
HCT153
21 Mar 12 23:13
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Lay favourites (any sport) that have very little chance of winning compared to the odds they are being offered at. cf Liverpool tonight
bloody hell...played QPR off the park for 75 mins and 2-0 up at that point...if you think that's a valid example, i wish you all the best
21 Mar 12 23:13
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| Topic/replies: 23 | Blogger: HCT153's blog
Lay favourites (any sport) that have very little chance of winning compared to the odds they are being offered at. cf Liverpool tonight
bloody hell...played QPR off the park for 75 mins and 2-0 up at that point...if you think that's a valid example, i wish you all the best
It has not been officially possible to make a living from betting in the UK until exchanges
came into being and prior it was only achieved by covertly winning from high street LBO.
Now it seems there are 2 clocks ticking that may impinge on this window of opportunity, one being the ability of exchange winners being able to keep there winnings past corporation intolerance to winners and secondly in-efficient governments seizing upon the sums in the form of very poor tax regimes for which the UK does have a poor record in.
Let us pray that Winning wont just become another broken dream.........
came into being and prior it was only achieved by covertly winning from high street LBO.
Now it seems there are 2 clocks ticking that may impinge on this window of opportunity, one being the ability of exchange winners being able to keep there winnings past corporation intolerance to winners and secondly in-efficient governments seizing upon the sums in the form of very poor tax regimes for which the UK does have a poor record in.
Let us pray that Winning wont just become another broken dream.........
kavvie 21 Mar 12 11:33
its about having an edge/knowing something the bookies dont.a tennis player unwell.a horse expected to show better (or worse) than it has to date.a row or low morale in a football team .if you are depending on straight betting between you and bookie you on a lose because you are not getting the true price of something happening.???????
WHAT A PATHETIC STATEMENT - THE LAST PART SHOWS YOU ARE A GALOOT
its about having an edge/knowing something the bookies dont.a tennis player unwell.a horse expected to show better (or worse) than it has to date.a row or low morale in a football team .if you are depending on straight betting between you and bookie you on a lose because you are not getting the true price of something happening.???????
WHAT A PATHETIC STATEMENT - THE LAST PART SHOWS YOU ARE A GALOOT
It has not been officially possible to make a living from betting in the UK until exchanges
came into being and prior it was only achieved by covertly winning from high street LBO.
Total rubbish
The bookmaker prices are the cornerstone of all sports betting stats, so beat the bookie price and the stats will be on your side.
came into being and prior it was only achieved by covertly winning from high street LBO.
Total rubbish
The bookmaker prices are the cornerstone of all sports betting stats, so beat the bookie price and the stats will be on your side.
The bookmakers prices are based on poor race compiling as must be a lot of other sports so doubt that they can be a cornerstone, more like a millstone if relied upon and how can they be any marker when favs are 10% down on ROI % and the rest of market is much worse due to over-round?
Again, total rubbish
The bookmakers prices are based on excellent race compiling - how else do such stats as average odds for winning favourites = 2.9 yet their strike rate is 35% overall, thereby providing them profits year in year out and always have done. Their whole point is to offer poor odds - and how can they do this consitently unless they know their job. Take any sport and you will find the mean prices consistent and in their favour.
The bookmakers prices are based on excellent race compiling - how else do such stats as average odds for winning favourites = 2.9 yet their strike rate is 35% overall, thereby providing them profits year in year out and always have done. Their whole point is to offer poor odds - and how can they do this consitently unless they know their job. Take any sport and you will find the mean prices consistent and in their favour.
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