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smithy91
08 Mar 12 17:29
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Date Joined: 01 Mar 10
| Topic/replies: 9,213 | Blogger: smithy91's blog
in two days time it will be my 2 year aniversary on betfair and i am still only 20Laugh. was wondering how many others started off on here when they were 18. i am looking at going full time one here by the time of my 25 th birthday so five more years of hard work learning the markets and increasing my knowledge until i have an edge enabling myself to do this.

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By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 08 Mar 12 18:00
What is your day job?
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 18:05
i have an apprenticeship making aircraft parts mateHappy
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 08 Mar 12 18:08
Have you been successful on here so far?
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 18:12
when i first joined no bad bets and chase bets but since i've been trading and understand how betfair works now much better.
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 08 Mar 12 18:17
Well, GL.

To answer your question, there's not a huge amount of activity on this forum. Horse racing and football forums busiest.

What do you bet/trade on?
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 18:21
cheers mate. i dint wana put this on football forum to avoid trolls and abuseLaugh. i only bet on football and its pre off trading. match odds and the over/under 2.5 pre off are best for me.
By:
bob_terwilliger
When: 08 Mar 12 20:24
how much do they actually move pre off? how much do you make per market?
By:
U.A.
When: 08 Mar 12 20:56
Hello there Smithy91.

You mention that when you first started you did chase bets and bad bets but not anymore. I recall when Norwich played Chelsea and the prices moved the wrong way for you you let your position ride when it went in play rather than trading out and accepting the loss. You also bigged up Tottenham when they played Man U and the prices went against you and i got the impression that you let that one go in play as well rather than trading out.

I'm not trying to point out the ones you got wrong as you probably get many right but what percentage of your bank do you have on the game when it goes in-play. Is not trading out and accepting a loss and letting it go in play a form of chasing.
By:
Contrarian
When: 08 Mar 12 20:56
i am looking at going full time one here by the time of my 25 th birthday so five more years of hard work learning the markets and increasing my knowledge until i have an edge enabling myself to do this.

I would advise you not to wait. It will get harder and harder to make money on here (even assuming that Betfair don't increase the PC further).
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 21:29
@UA thanks for the post. its true i have let my pre off trades go in play consistently. al show you some examples of this.

WBA played sunderland the other week and were priced at 2.56. i felt this price was to short and sunderland had been on a good run so was looking for around 2.7+. but at kick they were 2.4. so i decided to let the bet run in play and perhaps trade out to break even but odemwingie bagged in the 3rd minute and left me no opportunity to trade out and lost £1560.

but then a day later arsenal played at home to tottenham and i layed them at 2.6 looking for 2.8. at kickoff they were 2.4 so again let the bet run in play. this time a goal came in my favour saha netted after 4 minutes leaving me like this.

arsenal +£411
tottenham +£550
the draw +£550

under 2.5 +£110
over 2.5 +£110

then on tuesday i layed tranmere at 2.72 as they had not won for 11 games and notts county were on a four match unbeaten run under new manager keith curle and had not conceded. My bet to back tranmere was about to be matched in play @2.9 when notts county went 1-0 up. this was perfect for me only to find all the markets were suspended and left me unable to trade out until 68th min after betfair crashed. tranmere were then around 20/1 so only needed to put £100 on to green up. this left me with £900 profit.

so bit of a mixed bag really but am making more successful trades than unsuccessful. the way i see it is if you believe the market is wrong and you have a good price you should make a profit providing your taking the right prices.

these are a few other trades i have had in last week or 2.
bournmouth =+£50
the draw =+£50
charlton=+£180

england =+£93
the draw =+£93
holland =+£93

rochdale=+ £100
the draw= +£100
notts county=+£100

tottenham vs man utd under 2.5 =+£120
                     over 2.5=+£120
tottenham +£0
man utd+£0
the draw+£0 price went wrong way so traded out in play to break even

arsenal vs ac milan under 2.5 = -£120
                    over 2.5 = -£120 made a right mess of this one.
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 21:38
cheers for that contrarian. at the moment no way i could go full time but yeh the premium charge will probably be 90% by the time i feel its right to leave my jobLaugh.

@bob i have been really suprised at how much odds move before kickoff. i aim for around 20 ticks a trade but some vary.

with the under/over markets i have found some trends which seem to happen pre game and there are two outcomes to green rather than three with match odds so like trading this market.
By:
mesmerised
When: 08 Mar 12 21:48
smithy

your 2 year anniversary has passed - you joined betfair on the 1st March 2010
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 21:53
thanks mesmerised thats a shocker from me thinking i joined betfair on march 10th 2001 when i was aged 9Laugh.
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 08 Mar 12 22:20
Did you play tonight smithy?
By:
mesmerised
When: 08 Mar 12 22:22
lol no problem, fortunantly for me, I couldn't make the same mistake 10 nov 10 Grin
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 22:29
mesmerisedLaughhaha

@nick  i did have a trade tonight mate and traded like a mong. valencia vs psv under 2.5 +£0 over 2.5 +£0
i had been monitoring the prices all day on unders then the drift came just before kickoff so i piled on only  for it to stay the sameSad.

went through all the europa league match odds and couldn't find a gap in the markets so thought best to leave  it. as people say on here its a marathon not a a sprint.

have got one for the weekend layed tottenham at 2.6 away at everton looking to trade out at 2.8
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 22:30
what do you bet on nick mate?Happy
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 08 Mar 12 22:42
Horse racing and football but not very active these days.

I used to look for outsiders in certain races. Betfair was the place to be as a 25-1 shot could be 80
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 22:44
ok mate should get back on it trade some footballGrin
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 08 Mar 12 22:48
Don't think I could make money unless I put some hours in. Haven't got time
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 22:51
ok mate. does take quite abit of time having to search for a gap in the markets or when a price is wrong. luckily i am living at home still and have the time to do this.
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 08 Mar 12 22:53
Tottenham starting to wobble. Everton beat Chelsea (not saying much) and Man City at Goodison
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 08 Mar 12 22:56
Spurs 2.64 currently
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 22:57
thats it mate dawson out for season not sure about ledley king, tottenham having a blip in league, everton tend to play better against big teams at home plus the results you just mentioned.

i can see prices being everton 2.82 tottenham 2.84 at kickoff can see money coming for everton but that's just my opinion might be wrong
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 08 Mar 12 23:03
Do you get up early on a Sat? Presumably the RP tipsters can influence the market.

I can see Tottenham drifting like you say and then one of the tipsters saying bookies have over reacted to Spurs recent form - value bet at 7/4
By:
tobermory
When: 08 Mar 12 23:15
2.60 is a great price for Spurs, would be amazed if it went joint favs

As you say though, there are some crazy swings pre game
By:
smithy91
When: 08 Mar 12 23:26
Hi tobermory looks like nelsen and kaboul at centre back team news often makes prices move 4 i reckon i should get 2.8
By:
U.A.
When: 09 Mar 12 07:32
Hello there Smithy91

You mention "the way i see it is if you believe the market is wrong and you have a good price you should make a profit providing your taking the right prices." but you seem to be confusing trading and betting in my humble opinion.

If you let a market go in play then your trade becomes a bet. Two early goals and a sending off the wrong way and you've lost the lot. It can happen.

It's fine to believe that if the market is wrong then you should take a good price, but for the right amount. You may be prepared to risk 20% of your bank account for a pre-match trade which is fine, but would you put 20% of it on as a bet if you think the price is wrong. I wouldn't, i think that's overstaking, maybe more around 1-2%.

Also trading and betting have a different mentality. Trading is not what you think the price should be at kick-off but what you think it will be. Many a time these two are the same but sometimes they are not. If say with the Eve v Tot game the current Tot price is 2.6, you think the true price should be 2.4 but you think the price at kick-off will be 2.8 what would you do?

If you bet you have to believe that your value judgement is correct regardless of outcome. With trading there are times where you have to admit you called it wrong and get out whilst the going is good.

Two very different mindsets and approaches in my opinion and if you merge the two then it can be a recipe for disaster.

Anyway if what you are doing works for you then good luck. Just my opinion, you may think i'm talking rubbish but the forum is quite slow these days so feel free to disagree.
By:
nortons
When: 09 Mar 12 07:49
I would be amazed if Spurs went off below 2.60 but its all about opinions!
By:
TheVis
When: 09 Mar 12 09:03
smithy - whatever you do make sure you get some skills under your belt in the real world first before thinking about going full time on here ie see the apprenticeship through

There is no telling where betting on sites like this may be in a few years in terms of charges and legalities so you will need something to fall back on for sure.  You may not be good enough either - the vast majority won't be.
By:
smithy91
When: 09 Mar 12 13:57
nice one for everyone who has commented.

@U.A - hi U.A i actually agree with what your saying i am pretty much combining trading and betting together and letting the trade run in play has obvious risks like red cards etc. but the phrase only bet what you can afford to lose applies here for me and i can afford a couple of early goals in matches to go against me without breaking the bank and i have no interest in chasing back trades which went wrong e.g the west brom game the form book went right out the window and left me with a £1560 loss which i accepted and since then the trades i have had have won the lot back plus more.

there are also certain factors which are in my favour. the average first goal time in a match is not until after the 20th min. by this time in play the prices have normally gone back to where they should be enabling me to get out. another factor is most teams at some point in a football match will trade higher. then if the worst thing happens and a goal goes in the goal is sometimes in your favour e.g the tranmere vs notts county game where i will immediately trade out after. if the goal goes against you then you still have the rest of the game left to hope for an equaliser but this situation is a rarity.

quite a lot of the games i trade are televised matches so if a trade runs in play this also gives a much better indication of when to bail out and cut losses. for example when chelsea played napoli in naples for the first leg of champs league i layed napoli at 2.3 after they had been 2.6 earlier in the week. after watching the opening 5 minutes chelsea looked dodgy and cavani and lavezzi looked as though they could run riot so i traded out for 2.3 what i put in at. so getting out when the danger signs are there is crucial and not being greedy trying for a profit in every trade.

U.A when you say there are times when you have to admit you called it wrong and get out for a loss you are right. i messed up the arsenal ac milan under 2.5 market up by backing under 2.5 at 2.16 only for it to drift out to 2.28 at tuesday lunchtime. i then decided to top up another £500 and about an hour before kickoff it was 2.36 so i topped up for third time. then by around kickoff it was evident the prices wasn't dropping where i wanted so traded out at with a loss of £120 on both outcomes. this shows i do have discipline to trade out for a loss.

this system also works because of truly shocking prices on here but it's about waiting for them they will find you. one of my favourite teams for this is crawley. i call it the crawley bandwagon everone jumps on it after last season's fa cup success.
earlier in the season they played crystal palace in the 3rd round of league cup. my jaw dropped to the floor when i saw this.
crawley 2.66  crystal palace 3+. hold on a minute palace are full strentgh ambrose and zaha included are two divisions higher, and are at home. so only one option 1k lay of crawley and didn't think twice about leaving it in play. if crawley win i will happily pay out £1600 quid to the mug but the ideal scenario was for palace to score 1st and trade out which they did. game finished 2-0 palace.

then last month i am watchin espn and find crawley at home to stoke in fa.cup. i was expecting to find crawley at 4 and stoke odds on. instead after 5 mins crawley are 3.1.i thought what an earth is going on. how can a team in league 2 be that price against a team in top half of premiership with their full strength team out. so dived in again laying crawley only for delap to  get sent off after around 25 mins. crawley then into evens. then two mins before half time walters pen 1-0 trade out. game finished 2-0 stoke 75 min with 10 men a clear massive mistake in the match odds.
By:
smithy91
When: 09 Mar 12 14:02
@ vis- my apprenticeship finishes in august so will be on full wage then will be building a bank as your right in saying i will need something to fall back on. then hopefully by time i am 25 i am ready to take the plunge. i am hoping i will be good enough eventually most people my age will not have a clue how to trade and pile £100 onto a odds on acca so at least going in the right directionHappy
By:
smithy91
When: 09 Mar 12 18:01
1 trade tonight backed fleetwood @1.98 after that stormin write up on the football forumGrin
By:
1.01 Layer
When: 09 Mar 12 18:08
Wise words, Vis.
Good luck smithy.
By:
smithy91
When: 09 Mar 12 18:48
thanks layer i will need itHappy
By:
smithy91
When: 09 Mar 12 21:06
fleetwood +£80 the draw +£0 kidderminster+0 layed at 1.9Grin
By:
Trevh
When: 10 Mar 12 02:05
Smithy, many things can change in 5 years, that's too far ahead to be looking IMO, if you think you can make it here a year is long enough to learn (2 years max) if they haven't 'got it' by then they probably never will.

Also I think you're maybe a bit young to be suited to the isolated lifestyle if you know what I mean. When you've done say 25 years in a job that you don't like, doing this all day every day becomes a great pleasure, almost a privilege.


PS. You use very large stakes (over staking) unless you have a 100k bank?
By:
smithy91
When: 10 Mar 12 09:19
k thanks for post trev h sum good points. i don't think i could leave my job in a year's time and your right probably to young for the isolated lifestyle although the way i trade at the moment its pre off and dosen't leave me stuck to the laptop all day.

if i was trading goals in all the televised games in play like a lot of the big boys on the football forum would obviously be stuck on the laptop a lot more but at the moment not ready to start that but not ruling out doing it in the future depends how profitable  pre off trading becomes for me at the minute things look ok.

i am suprised to hear it can take 2 years max to learn it on here heard sum people say six.

this weekend only two trades after the fleetwood one went well last night.

layed spurs @2.6 and backed under 2.5 goals @1.9 in same game looking for 1.8 to trade out at kickoff. then off to blackburn town centre to celebrate an away win at wolves hopefullyGrin
By:
CrowsEye
When: 10 Mar 12 09:51
Eh I'm 22 now but I've been on here since I was 17.
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