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01 Mar 12
23:37
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Date Joined:
01 Mar 12
Hi Guys,
I have been roaming around here and value the opinion of a lot of seasoned players on this site.
I have a betting idea/strategy that i would like to throw in front of you all to see if it can be done.
The idea is as follows:
I think i have a good "edge" in American sports betting (handicap betting)..
In fact i think i can manage a long term average of 65% win rate on singles matches (thats my "record" over the last 3 seasons anyway).
The plan is now to bet TREBLES and incidental FOUFOLDS on Handicap matches in all American Sports.If i take my 65% individual score i think i would be around 20% on trebles in this sphere. As most games pay 1.90 a trebles pays 6.85 and i would win roughly 1 in 5, so $5 stake for $6.85 return.
Now the question is, if you do this with a $5000 bank can you make $300 per day doing these bets?? With every bet placed at 2 to 3% of the bankroll...in my opinion 5 bets at $100 would return 1 win at $685, sot hat would net nearly $200 per day....
is this in ANY way possible? Is my logic flawed??
In general the goal of the investors actually is just a small average profit of $100 per day calculating in a lot of losing days, which i think is relatively safe....
How delusional am i?? Has it been done on here before?? Again its not a get rich quick scheme or anything and it costs me around 80hrs per week in studyin/planning, but to me it seems worth it???
Cheers for the input guys!!!
I have been roaming around here and value the opinion of a lot of seasoned players on this site.
I have a betting idea/strategy that i would like to throw in front of you all to see if it can be done.
The idea is as follows:
I think i have a good "edge" in American sports betting (handicap betting)..
In fact i think i can manage a long term average of 65% win rate on singles matches (thats my "record" over the last 3 seasons anyway).
The plan is now to bet TREBLES and incidental FOUFOLDS on Handicap matches in all American Sports.If i take my 65% individual score i think i would be around 20% on trebles in this sphere. As most games pay 1.90 a trebles pays 6.85 and i would win roughly 1 in 5, so $5 stake for $6.85 return.
Now the question is, if you do this with a $5000 bank can you make $300 per day doing these bets?? With every bet placed at 2 to 3% of the bankroll...in my opinion 5 bets at $100 would return 1 win at $685, sot hat would net nearly $200 per day....
is this in ANY way possible? Is my logic flawed??
In general the goal of the investors actually is just a small average profit of $100 per day calculating in a lot of losing days, which i think is relatively safe....
How delusional am i?? Has it been done on here before?? Again its not a get rich quick scheme or anything and it costs me around 80hrs per week in studyin/planning, but to me it seems worth it???
Cheers for the input guys!!!
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I presume you are talking about betting with bookies.
If you are seriously saying you have a 65% strike rate at odds of 1.90 for singles than you must be one of the best gamblers of all time. And you will surely make an absolute fortune. But that begs the question of why you haven't already, if you've had that SR for 3 seasons
It certainly makes no sense at all to be putting selections in trebles etc as the bookies overound will be more in their favour the more selections you include.
If you have a 5K Bank and that strike rate then just doing the singles @1.90 average odds, if you can bet on 100 markets a month , using 1% of the bank ($50) each time , you'd return 23.5% profit on top of your stake,which would be over $1k ,obviously the more markets you could bet on the better .
But as you are talking about doing accas for some reason i doubt you are giving us a full and honest picture here.
If you are seriously saying you have a 65% strike rate at odds of 1.90 for singles than you must be one of the best gamblers of all time. And you will surely make an absolute fortune. But that begs the question of why you haven't already, if you've had that SR for 3 seasons
It certainly makes no sense at all to be putting selections in trebles etc as the bookies overound will be more in their favour the more selections you include.
If you have a 5K Bank and that strike rate then just doing the singles @1.90 average odds, if you can bet on 100 markets a month , using 1% of the bank ($50) each time , you'd return 23.5% profit on top of your stake,which would be over $1k ,obviously the more markets you could bet on the better .
But as you are talking about doing accas for some reason i doubt you are giving us a full and honest picture here.
Thanks Tober for the reply.
I appreciate everything you say and i have NEVER worked out how big the overround is doing trebles instead of singles/doubles.
Over the last 3 years i had a 74% SR in American Football (not EVER game played.. just the right selected games) and a 69% SR in Baseball (making 3 selections per day)...I "lost" mostly on Ice Hockey, where the odds are way better, and Basketball where i just dont have enough experience/knowledge off (but worked on that this season)
The fact is that i live in a third world country (basically) and dont work here(anywhere) so all my profits always go towards bills/living expences...Never had a chance to build up anything, but now i had some investors that have seen the results and are willing to invest some money....
thats why i just want to see what others think, as i have been thinking about this for a year or more
I appreciate everything you say and i have NEVER worked out how big the overround is doing trebles instead of singles/doubles.
Over the last 3 years i had a 74% SR in American Football (not EVER game played.. just the right selected games) and a 69% SR in Baseball (making 3 selections per day)...I "lost" mostly on Ice Hockey, where the odds are way better, and Basketball where i just dont have enough experience/knowledge off (but worked on that this season)
The fact is that i live in a third world country (basically) and dont work here(anywhere) so all my profits always go towards bills/living expences...Never had a chance to build up anything, but now i had some investors that have seen the results and are willing to invest some money....
thats why i just want to see what others think, as i have been thinking about this for a year or more
I don't know anything about American Sports but if you are indeed talking about the Handicap line (rather than straight winners) with that strike rate then you are getting 2/3 right on what should be 50/50 calls? That would be amazing if it is from a large number of matches .
If what you say is true-ITCANBEDONE and you are on your way to squillions.
HOWEVER, accumulators are hard enough without being handicaps. Most people will agree that in accumulators there is nearly always one that lets you down. There is a saying in US sports betting that any team can beat any other team at any given time. This certainly applies to handicaps. It is very diificult to beat the spreads.
BUT- if you really have the edge you say you have, put in an order for your S type Mercedes now and start inquiring at estate agents about your mansion on the beach in Barbados.
Good luck!
HOWEVER, accumulators are hard enough without being handicaps. Most people will agree that in accumulators there is nearly always one that lets you down. There is a saying in US sports betting that any team can beat any other team at any given time. This certainly applies to handicaps. It is very diificult to beat the spreads.
BUT- if you really have the edge you say you have, put in an order for your S type Mercedes now and start inquiring at estate agents about your mansion on the beach in Barbados.
Good luck!
80 hours a week studying. id expect £8.000 a week for that amount of time.
with £5000 bankroll.
with £5000 bankroll.
Thanks for the replies guys.
I was halfheartedly hoping for some serious replies (from guys who have vast experience in American Sports) and some laugh worthy as well, which i think i definitely got so thats ok :)
I think people like Jim Feist (.com) run at like 81% or 82% on selected selections.
i dont think running 65% at 50/50 shots is that extremely good....It is just a question if 4000 games is a large enough sample size to verify it...(yes i have a poker background).
Project is on hold for now as one of the investors has been robbed and stabbed last night so thoughts and prayers with him for now and hopefully before the baseball season this will be be up and running
I was halfheartedly hoping for some serious replies (from guys who have vast experience in American Sports) and some laugh worthy as well, which i think i definitely got so thats ok :)
I think people like Jim Feist (.com) run at like 81% or 82% on selected selections.
i dont think running 65% at 50/50 shots is that extremely good....It is just a question if 4000 games is a large enough sample size to verify it...(yes i have a poker background).
Project is on hold for now as one of the investors has been robbed and stabbed last night so thoughts and prayers with him for now and hopefully before the baseball season this will be be up and running
Project is on hold for now as one of the investors has been robbed and stabbed last night so thoughts and prayers with him for now and hopefully before the baseball season this will be be up and running
Sorry to hear that, hope he makes a full recovery. So now you need a replacement investor.............
I don't like those posters who cynically suggest the OP might be a bit of a scam artist, but this thread is starting to make me switch sides...
I am afraid that getting robbed and stabbed is just an occupational hazard in a third world countries like Harmsworth, Bradford, Bethnal Green or Brixton.
With stats like yours you will have no difficulty sucking in, I mean obtaining, another investor. Good luck, but just in case you are thinking of asking, let me tell you where I am---I'M OUT!
With stats like yours you will have no difficulty sucking in, I mean obtaining, another investor. Good luck, but just in case you are thinking of asking, let me tell you where I am---I'M OUT!
Have you ever read such horse****?
This bloke reckons he is geting 2/3 on 50/50 calls and wonders if he can make money
PMSL - can I be your new investor please? Does it include a stab vest.
Best comedy thread we've had in age this.
This bloke reckons he is geting 2/3 on 50/50 calls and wonders if he can make money
PMSL - can I be your new investor please? Does it include a stab vest.
Best comedy thread we've had in age this.
For a fee send me your selections and stake money and I will use my experience to ensure you gain the maximum possible edge. WBGDBWU
I'll even promise to rebate you my fee should you maintain your strike rate over a long period.
LordB, you know the Nigerian who has been emailing you about his 10 billion inheritance which he can only unlock with your help? He's lying too.
My dog smashed into the laundrette, whilst driving his motorbike and he wasn't insured. They've taken us to the cleaners. Plus he damaged his two front legs and the vet's bill are enormous. Otherwise I wouldnt need the stake and fee money up front. Once the money starts rolling in for us though I promise I'll refund my fee.
Poor mutt he reckons he was the fastest greyhound east of Lowestoft and his career could be over before it really began.
I tried telling him but I dont think he understands English
You could be barking up the wrong tree with English. You sure he's not a German shepherd?
I "lost" mostly on Ice Hockey, where the odds are way better, and Basketball where i just dont have enough experience/knowledge off (but worked on that this season)
As someone that bet a fair amount on hockey through the 2011 season, I have barely touched it this year and feel fantastic! To bet on hockey, you need patience but the fact that there are 1200 games a season, it is always there and the temptation to take a flutter at odds on is constant.
It is also a sport that involves ice, a small disc and sticks. Too many deflections that can ruin a bet.
Basketball is a bookies dream in the states. No value unless you take a spread and the bookies love it.
ON INVESTORS: betting and investors does not mix and will end in tears. You are essentially starting a business and will have the pressures that come along with it to come up with gains.
If you are as good as you are, then turn to your 'investors' and say for X amount per week, you will research on their behalf and inform them of bets and plays but don't put the money on. This means that if the gains aren't what THEY expect, they can walk away.
As someone that bet a fair amount on hockey through the 2011 season, I have barely touched it this year and feel fantastic! To bet on hockey, you need patience but the fact that there are 1200 games a season, it is always there and the temptation to take a flutter at odds on is constant.
It is also a sport that involves ice, a small disc and sticks. Too many deflections that can ruin a bet.
Basketball is a bookies dream in the states. No value unless you take a spread and the bookies love it.
ON INVESTORS: betting and investors does not mix and will end in tears. You are essentially starting a business and will have the pressures that come along with it to come up with gains.
If you are as good as you are, then turn to your 'investors' and say for X amount per week, you will research on their behalf and inform them of bets and plays but don't put the money on. This means that if the gains aren't what THEY expect, they can walk away.
If had a similiar edge , I would not be on here telling all and sundry. I would be busily studying the next match, living in my third world country, creaming it off the top, paying my bills and perhaps putting a shilling away here and there to slowly build my pot and thinking to myself what a lucky lad I am.
May I wish you the best of luck, remember if investors are being stabbed, what will happen to you if the 65% suddenly dips to 52% with the pressure of playing with a large stack.
May I wish you the best of luck, remember if investors are being stabbed, what will happen to you if the 65% suddenly dips to 52% with the pressure of playing with a large stack.
Also, as all the ads on Wall Street enticing punters into their funds, there is a tiny disclaimer hidden at the bottom edge:
"Past performance does not necessarily reflect future gains"
Unfortunately, someone who has 'trusted' your decisions will not accept such fine print when it comes to a streak of negative returns.
Follow SA's advice and trudge along rather than taking the risk in the fast lane.
"Past performance does not necessarily reflect future gains"
Unfortunately, someone who has 'trusted' your decisions will not accept such fine print when it comes to a streak of negative returns.
Follow SA's advice and trudge along rather than taking the risk in the fast lane.
I take it a replacement investor has been found otherwise the op would of returned to add to the debate! 
Project is on hold for now as one of the investors has been robbed and stabbed last night so thoughts and prayers with him for now and hopefully before the baseball season this will be be up and runningThis is most upsetting - where should I direct my prayers? I've never heard of any prayers being answered before, but then I've never heard of a 65% win rate (long-term) on handicaps in American sports before either.
To answer the op, your logic is not flawed is so far as you can calculate a profit over the conditions of the bets but systems based on statistics do have a habit of crumbling in practice and even the gamble of the mighty roman empire crumbled when conditions changed in the equation of resource supply, external pressures and internal power.
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