Who does actually run in profit?

There are about 500 people who pay the Super Premium Charge on here, according to Betfair. About 0.5% pay the lower Premium Charge, although there is healthy debate over what the 0.5% is a percentage of - active users can mean different things. Bottom line is that most people lose, but a small minority win and win consistently, hence the need for the Premium Charges to be 1) introduced in the first place, and 2) raised to as high as 60% when step 1) wasn't enough.

Many more than 2 % of active customers on here are long term winners. I think it's probably somewhere between 10 - 15 %.
   By active customers I mean people using this site on a regular basis.

At least 450 people/users made in excess of £250,000 on here so maybe the equivalent of 300,000 Euros as at June 2011 as that is how many people were affected by the Super Premium Charge.

Those that do will have made it because of either very good knowledge of the sports/events they bet on, very good understanding of reading the markets (from the offers and matched ammounts), sophisticated statistical and mathematical programmes, very good natural trading instincts, time delay advantages when betting in running or a combination of a few of them.

10 years ago you could make money just by being good at maths and using a few decent manual trading techniques but times have changed.  Its much more difficult now and Betfair take much more of your winnings if you manage to crack it so far less appealing if your goal is to win long term than it used to be.  Also much more difficult to win money at conventional bookmakers.  Market maturing, global recession and the fact that the exchange system is a natural Betfair monopoly all to blame.

What you must realise is that the markets wouldnt exist if there werent people making money on it. 

Where are you from yarik?  Good luck with your endeavours anyhow

I'd like to know how many are long term winners ie 5 years or more.  I'm sure there are many who have a good year or two but then go bust or find their methods no longer work. How many actually make money year after year and hold on to it?

As Clydebank says, a few years ago, it was quite possible to make
acceptable profits, on a personal basis I made 23K in 2003, just
working out mathematical place odds, backing and laying. I had a
regular 15 backs/lays per day, but the 'qualifiers' began to drop
slowly till I was down to about 2 a day and I quit through boredom.
The markets are very efficient nowadays, and the racing probably very
straight so hard to beat, though not impossible. GL in your quest.

yarik,

A good yardstick is to look at the inception date of the poster and read a few of their scribblings. If they continually and consistently talk bollocks, then ignore them completely. Be aware though, we do have a couple of resident pseudo intellectual types, who might ensnare you into thinking they are the real deal. They appear for a short time every now and then, only to disappear again without notice. My theory is that they have to return to their home on Shutter Island regularly, in order to balance their medication.

Good luck and welcome aboard yarik.

"Alas, poor yarik! I knew him, Horatio: a fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy"

Thanks everyone for your helpful comments and good luck to all! I guess it's all about the edge or probably short scalping, but where are too many people trying to make money- there is their hearts, as for me like passion, the markets are going to be very competitive and tough, being that not only you wants to profit. I am from Ukraine not a good place to live in, to be fair, don’t even mind to go at euro12. Nothing is real good on here. Originally I am from Hungary.

There is a guy on the forum who did first goal time 0-10 lay experiment and he virtually failed. What I was considering is- if it doesn’t work that way maybe it’d be working the opposite way, if he will back first time score for example, then the fortune for him. Maybe I misunderstood something. I saw the odds from the bookies on any goal will be scored from 0-15 minutes, it is about 3. If we take the certainty of the back odds being in average 33 % of chance that the teams will actually score by the meantime, possibly there could be some edge, though faintly. Can someone bring a light to the case, who versed at exchange?

You are grossly oversimplifying, only 2% make money.  Think about it, it can't be that easy!

You are grossly oversimplifying, only 2% make money.  Think about it, it can't be that easy!

My advice would be to stick to someat you are likely to have better knowledge of than others so since you are from the Ukraine and as you like football concentrate on your local knowledge of Ukrainian football.  Try to arrive at your own chances for each team.  Also be aware of things that might move prices....Maybe Shaktar or Kiev are playing in Europe and you know before the market wakes up that they have serious injury problems.  Maybe you can trade the match markets at a slight advantage when they are playing in Europe with faster local pictures, back them quickly everytime they get a dangerous free kick corner or corner and lay them hopefully 10 secs later at 2 ticks lower.

Euro 2012 might be perfect for you.  Faster analogue pictures are being phased out in this country before Euro 2012 and probably half the money on here comes from the UK.  Who starts up front? One striker or two?  Must be an opportunity to get a decent price on the first goalscorer in Ukraines matches if you know the likely formation.

Yarik : Can someone bring a light to the case, who versed at exchange?

Try watching as many correct score odds as you can, using API software such as Gruss or Geeks Toy etc with a decent auto refresh, and you will learn where the opportunities are.

For example, if you can lay the 0-0 in a match where a mug layer has lumped and dumped thousands, his lay will hold the price up for around 10 minutes after kick off, giving you a free bet. It happens.

Some matches with 0-0 odds under 10.0 will be hammered in to 8.0 or even 7.0 pre kick off, they often don't drop much more in the first 10 minutes or so, they are value to lay this season (some mug backers have appeared - prices should be nearer 9.0 than 8.0).

Some matches will plummet like a stone after kick off, back and lay, you'll learn which ones.

So basically, observe observe observe :) If you're passionate about it you will succeed, and you need a decent staking plan of course - level stakes / no chasing is simple enough.

Assuming you're here to win, not just for entertainment, I'd advise keeping bets to a minimum until you are turning a regular profit.  If you can't win with small bets, what makes people think they can with big bets.
Don't pay for "systems".
Be aware that 99%, probably more, of paid tipping services are a waste of money.
More often than not simple strategies are the best.
If you have an edge, try not to give it away.  It probably won't last long anyway.
Be mean.  Most strategies will succeed or fail over the smallest percentage differences.
Lastly, if you see a tip on here, consider doing the opposite.
Good luck

There's no way there are 10% to 15% of longterm active accounts winning here.

I agree, there are about 500 people who pay the Super Premium Charge on here.

That is a teeny amount when you consider the number of customers who use the exchange at least once a week.
These are the people making very good money.
It used to be a lot better, but many of the bigger players have had to double their turnover to make the same money they used to.

So not only does starship betfair get super premium charges, they also get the additional commission generate by the heavyweights trying to compensate for lost profits.

In other words, there is not only double dipping, but quadruple dipping going on.

Are you saying the so called heavyweights doubled turnover on the same activities to increase gross profits and keep net profit same due to increase costs (Super Premium Charge). Or are you implying the 'heavyweights' double turnover by putting more through other activities that kept gross profit the same but reduced costs in the way of more commission and therefore reduced costs.

Both assertions are inaccurate IMHO.

Given that over-rounds on betfair are the best in the world the question of weather an edge can actually be achieved or maintained becomes a real possibility but does still boil down to an inevitable simple equation.

accuracy of market against difficulty of event against likelihood for past events to repeat.

The common denominator in this formula is if events are easier and past events or form are more likely to repeat then the odds will become more accurate, this type of scenario exists in say football where you have a higher degree of expectancy from results with less outcomes also possibles but this scenario may be different in say horse racing on the flat with its more complex form interpretation and higher amount on variables.

The great news is that a great number of types of betting will have profit that can be relied on but the only real problem being how to know where to look and find it, and that surely wont be something that will be shared as knowledge is money in all betting activity.

The former cuban, which is supported by Betfair's latest figures.

"Given that over-rounds on betfair are the best in the world"

come on bf fanatic you know that isn't true

Feb 10, 2012 -- 8:28PM, Trevh wrote:

Yarik : Can someone bring a light to the case, who versed at exchange?Try watching as many correct score odds as you can, using API software such as Gruss or Geeks Toy etc with a decent auto refresh, and you will learn where the opportunities are. For example, if you can lay the 0-0 in a match where a mug layer has lumped and dumped thousands, his lay will hold the price up for around 10 minutes after kick off, giving you a free bet. It happens.Some matches with 0-0 odds under 10.0 will be hammered in to 8.0 or even 7.0 pre kick off, they often don't drop much more in the first 10 minutes or so, they are value to lay this season (some mug backers have appeared - prices should be nearer 9.0 than 8.0).Some matches will plummet like a stone after kick off, back and lay, you'll learn which ones. So basically, observe observe observe :) If you're passionate about it you will succeed, and you need a decent staking plan of course - level stakes / no chasing is simple enough.

those people are destroying my trading strategy. they force u to gamble as thez are fixing the prices

Yesterday, I saw final of African cup, when Drogba shoots a penalty, the market didn't stop and the odds did not move at all! Is it common situation? There can be a hay for him.

TheVis
Date Joined: 10 Feb 11
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When: 12 Feb 12 10:52
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"Given that over-rounds on betfair are the best in the world"

come on bf fanatic you know that isn't true

They are the best in the world for the Correct Score 2 market pre off for big matches!

It cannot be done