General Betting
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The big question is, will the profits accrue on Betfair or Pinacle?
And for what sports? Thoughts?
And for what sports? Thoughts?
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Replies: 27
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Do you pay premium charges?
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Do you pay premium charges?
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The profits will be at Pinnacle in the long run
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Do you have proof of that? It all depends on what price you take...
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5 years of betting on my part if you arb you take a better price at the bookmaker thats why its value and always wins long term
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Pinnacle lines are much, much sharper than BF markets. If you can find an arb between Pinnacle and Betfair the smart thing to do is to just bet that arb on BF and not even bother covering it at Pinnacle.
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Velosmav
Date Joined: 09 Oct 05 Add contact | Send message When: 02 Feb 12 14:58 Joined: Date Joined: 09 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 22 | Blogger: Velosmav's blog 5 years of betting on my part if you arb you take a better price at the bookmaker thats why its value and always wins long term Yeah, but that's because most bookies are crap compared to pinny in terms of pricing things up properly. I agree with ante, especially for American sports. Even for football pinny are much sharper than any well know British/European bookie, but I think Betfair will tend to be very slightly more accurate for that. Figuring out when the bookie is wrong and when bf is wrong is a skill all on its own. I've turned over about £150k with pinny and I'm up about £3.3k there. Doesn't really mean anything though, I could just as easily be £3.3k down, it's very volatile. |
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Pinnacle make plenty of in-running mistakes
They only go up in intervals and then they often have to move the lines 20% If they're that good why not price up for the entire event? People wrongly(imo) think pinnacle are right, if pinnacle go 2.7 and it's 2.5/2.52 on here the price will always drift on bf. Plenty of opprtunities when pinnacle realise they've got it wrong and move to 2.4. |
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My post refers to prematch betting. I don't know first hand how good they are in-running.
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curlywurym, I have a feeling they don't price for the entire event because it would take significantly more lineman resources. if Pinnacle are moving from 2.7 to 2.4 that means they took a lot of action between 2.7 and 2.4. .. presumably they were smart to take that action and they moved their price to adjust liability. What's fair value in a situation like that? Probably 2.65 at the shortest, I'd say.
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Alternatively you could say they just got hammered by their known winners
For a fairly liquid event like an nba/nfl tv match I'd take the bf price as being more accurate |
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^ in play sure, no way bf is clearly more accurate pre off though.
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How can you tell whether 1 bookie or another is accurate? One price is clearly wrong all the time.
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You can tell which one is accurate by watching which one moves. The bookie that is wrong will move his price more in line with the ones that are right.
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TheInvestor2, then we're in the mire of circumlocution because the question then becomes: does Pinny move Betfair prices or do Betfair prices move Pinny prices; because, if we assume that prices are moving closer to fair value, the biggest mover is therefore the most far away from fair value - so the profits will generally accrue on the biggest mover.
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In general, the higher the amount Pinnacle will take on a bet, the more likely they're the sharp line.
They're miles better than Betfair pre-off on stuff like NFL, so they're happy to take huge bets. In running, not so much. |
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My only point of experience is NFL betting and you're more likely to find an arb between Pinny and a UK bookmaker than BF as the lines mature so late on BF plus the commission on BF makes it pretty uncompetitive for US sports. Put it this way I've bet NFL for 4 years now and get my info thru sat morning 4am and betfair. Approx 440 bets in the 4 years and BF has been best price once in the 440 bets at that time.
Guess the story might be different if you bet day of game and have 2-2.5% commission but for me at 4.4% US sports is a no no. |
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I'd almost guarantee you wil lose at Pinnacle long term,I have a friend that does work for them and you could not believe the effort that goes into setting their lines I don't believe Betfairs market will be more efficient.
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not disputing they are spot on pre match
however last week on the college basketball (can't remember the teams) but they went 2.42 about 15 mins into the match, on the restart they are 2.08 many times in nfl i've seen prices move from 1.33 to 1.2 in the breaks - they are far from perfect the arbs don't last on here for long anyway, because there are plenty of pinnacle copyers around |
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What's all this talk of efficiency? Sometime Betfair prices are hopelessly wrong...sometimes Pinny's
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Robespierre
03 Feb 12 00:55 Joined: 13 Mar 05 | Topic/replies: 6 | Blogger: Robespierre's blog TheInvestor2, then we're in the mire of circumlocution because the question then becomes: does Pinny move Betfair prices or do Betfair prices move Pinny prices; because, if we assume that prices are moving closer to fair value, the biggest mover is therefore the most far away from fair value - so the profits will generally accrue on the biggest mover. Aren't you answering your own question there? Obviously the one that moves will tend to be wrong, so the profits accrue there. It moves in line with the one that is more likely to be right. |
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TheInvestor2, the question is: which line is the biggest mover in the aggregate. That will answer the question.
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I heard Pinaccle is exchange too, but is it not a company or works same as bf as in comission only etc? If company would you not get banned eventually?
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Pinnacle doesn't monitor Betfair to adjust the prices. There are just too many variables in betting exchanges (betfair/****/matchbook) for Pinnacle to follow odds movements there and decide whether it's a big bet/arbitrage/trade etc.
What Pinnacle do....they monitor whats's happening in few asian bookies, and make adjustments if there is some big hit on some particular game. That's what they call ''risk management'. |
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I can imagine that it's true that pinny don't monitor bf prices. They don't need to because the arbers do it for them.
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You could get a crick in your neck watching betfair prices. It's like watching tennis live. Isn't it strange how punters change their mind every 0.38 seconds in the 5 minutes leading up to an event?
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TheInvestor2 05 Feb 12 13:07
I can imagine that it's true that pinny don't monitor bf prices. They don't need to because the arbers do it for them. Exactly ! This whole Pinnacle business model is based that ''money flow'' will take care of all things. That's why they don't need to hire lines makers for every soccer/basketball league. They just put opening prices for early markets with very low limits and ''incoming money'' will take care of anything else. And further towards the matchday/kick off they just increase the limits. |