Justified Paranoia

So maybe it's not them.
Well Aus SP used to have even better overrounds.
Now exactly the same result as above.
They've gone rampant and I want my consultancy cheque.

Never been better for the punters! How long can it last? This doesn't strictly apply to Betfair either.

That's not very many samples to base something like that on. Come back with 500.

It's an example of how bad it's got.
If I come back with 500, you'll say come back with 1000.
It's been more than two months since I brought this up and nothing has changed.

Why would it change now?

@Beat The OverRound

Isn't this what you'd expect?  If at some point in the past there was a 'distinct advantage to layers' you'd expect people to notice that and pile more money into laying the SP market, lengthening the SPs and driving down the overround?

No because the overround existed because punters were pushing down the prices with steamers in the market.
It is not a coincidence that all SP markets, even the one's while most people are asleep have been scalped.
So it follows that if savvy layers got into every single market, backers whould see the projected SP and plunge on.
It's pretty evident that it is being skimmed off the top before SP is calculated.
Turnover has not significantly increased, in fact it has slightly decreased which speaks volumes.

Turnover's a worthless figure which you'd expect to decrease. If you cut out all middlemen (the cross matcher cuts out some) turnover would plummet but that wouldn't make it any harder to get an actual back or lay matched.

Maybe someone's developed a new strategy and are cleaning up? Markets don't stay the same.

I doubt it.
If they are laying, they are losing.
If they are backing, @ 0.42% it's hardly worthwhile considering commission and PC and how are they going to dutch bet the field without knowing the final SP?
Someone is skimming the overround and it ain't punters.

what is the stratergy of the bot you think betfair are running?

There's no reason to see an under-rounded market as more suspicious than an over-rounded one. Fundamentally the two are the same.

Aye

please dont come onto an irrational thread and be rational.... you ruin it for everyone

There's no reason to see an under-rounded market as more suspicious than an over-rounded one. Fundamentally the two are the same.


Yes with one market versus another.
The point is all markets everywhere have suddenly shifted from 5 years of consistent average overround to consistent underround.
That doesn't happen with some muppet employing a strategy.
There is far too much money involved and nobody can predict the SP because it's unknown until race start.
There would also be fluctuations rather than consistent underrounds.

Here's tidays SP's, maybe they take Mondays off

15:00 Wolverhampton     104.00%
14:45 Weth     102.40%
14:30 Wolverhampton     101.20%
14:15 Weth     99.20%
14:00 Wolverhampton     101.70%
13:45 Weth     103.00%
13:15 Weth     100.00%

Maybe it's because they've turned their under-round skimming bot off.

Ok - obviously not, but that explanation wouldn't make any less sense than what you're suggesting.

The market percentages you show are consistent with a normal "efficient market" hypothesis.

Sorry Magician, I'll get my coat.

The market percentages you show are consistent with a normal "efficient market" hypothesis

But not consistent with Befair SP tradition over many years.

To make my point more clearly: If, over a number of years the markets showed a consistent over-round it would be as logical to suggest that that was caused by an "under-round skimming bot" as it is to state that a consistent under-round (if indeed there is one) is caused by an "over-round skimming bot".

If a consistent over-round moved towards a true value (100%) market it would be more sensible to assume that a bot had been switched off than that one had been switched on as a 100% book is what we would expect without interference.

The most likely explanation is that no bot has been switched on or off, and that if there has been a change it is what we would expect as all markets trend towards 100%. No conspiracy needed.

Erm , multiples are offline for the moment that may be one reason for todays improved overround compared to recent trends

BTO maybe a few more are following the same strategy these days that you publicised and are laying to SP thereby tipping the balance the other way?

what effect has PC had on SP betting.... (and all betting)

people want 'free' volatility NOW....

marginally underound SP - offered that

No the turnover is similar and even so you'd expect more variation.
When I was doing it, even though the overrounds were around 3% on UK and IRE and around 5% on AUS, there was great variation.
The SP's are too consistently normal in all markets.

Just as an aside here, one could have a case for being misled.
While the historical data is provided on an as is basis, the SP advantages published are completely and utterly wrong.

I found a lot of errors in the calculations.
They have not withdrawn late scratchings from many of the markets and have still claimed deadheat overlays as being the initial price not the deadheat price.
Especially in Aus markets where they really push the advantage, there are at least ten a day where they calculated the better price bookie SP after scratchings versus Betfair SP without scratchings.

It's not intentional because because they collect the data as the market suspends, but recalculate the SP during the race.
This in itself is open to rorting.
Surely some regulator should stop this practice of recalculating SP after the market has gone in play.
I've seen instances where the SP price has been recalculated after the race is over.

Very misleading, punters should be made aware of these things.

Pretty much with City type in charge, big shareholder pressure from people with Casino backgrounds you have to assume they have maths wizards employed to look at every angle for slicing a bit more profit every possible way. They will use their insider status, superior knowledge and speed advatanges to maximum advantage within the boundaries of what they believe the punters will tolerate before voting with their mouse.

These strategies have worked in the stock market for 100 years.  Not so sure they are on safe ground here though at Betfair as it is much clearer to a punter that they are losing money in the ecosystem than it is for the stock market investor.  In the stock market poor returns are hidden by inflation, steady superannuation contributions and remixing the indexes to remove bankrupt companies.

The City boys may well misjudge here and lose more than they gain if confidence in the integrity of the exchange fades.

word of mouth from excited punters made BF.  WOM can work both ways

I still reckon it's some clever sod finding an edge we're all too thick to spot and taking his 0.5%. If his volumes are big enough - which they easily could be if only playing into the massive main HR markets, then that's a whole lot of wonga.

There are a number of reasons why I know where it's coming from.
The overs are being skimmed off certain parts of the market.
If a certain large punter were to have a strategy based on the overall overrounds, he wouldn't be bothering with the smaller liquidity races, he would be hammering the large liquidity races.
After all,
a) he doesn't know what the actual SP will be, but Betfair do.
b) he would have to adjust his staking for the low liquidity races. Betfair could do this easily automatically.
The overround wouldn't be so overall consistent on all races in all countries.
c) He wouldn't be pushing the overround below 100%, because that would defeat his purpose.
d) The actual market overround doesn't matter to betfair, because of crossmatching. The overound is achieved by crossmatching, not the win market.

But after spending a day on this, as always happens, whoever it is has opened up the door for massive profits (percentage wise) by forcing parts of the market in different directions.
This tunnel is far better than laying the field, so much so, it is totally within the realms of possibility that I cannot ignore returning.
But this time I'll be disguising my strategy with bogus bets to throw off the stalkers.
Obviously I can't share it on the forum after what happened last time, but anyone who puts in a few hours of datamining will see it clearly.