Question for mathematicians / bookies (scorecast)

could probably have a rough estimate if we were given the price of the other team winning to nil

Jan 17, 2012 -- 2:59AM, [x] These checkboxes suck wrote:

could probably have a rough estimate if we were given the price of the other team winning to nil

Use an assumption and have a crack at it.

I read on the internet that although it looked like an accumulator, it wasn't  as the 2 events are dependent of each other.

so, in this case true odds would not be 4.9 x 9 = 44.1     but less, as the first goalscorer makes correct score of 1-0 more likely, or something like that....

I just thought there might be a formula, does anyone know it?
Cheers!

Divide 44.1 by the price of the other team keeping a clean sheet.

Thanks Ell.
I don't really understand why but I'll trust you... until someone tells me otherwise...

Would it be the same with 2-0 and 3-0?  (divide by odds of the other team keeping a clean sheet?)

thanks!

Think the rule of thumb method is to treat the correct score odds as a dead heat then multiply or calculate like a double.

Thanks dunter1 but I don't get the idea of the 'dead heat'

Could you give me an example with these figures?

first goalscorer 4.9 (20.4% chance)
correct score 1-0  9   (11.11 % chance)

thanks!

Using extremes to show it's not a question you can answer in two seconds.

0-0 evens
1-0 evens
0-1 100/1
1-1 100/1
Any other 100/1

First goalscorer: evens

Then they're completely correlated, so it's evens the double!


Other way

0-0 1000/1
1-0 50/1
0-1 50/1
1-1 20/1
2-0 20/1
2-1 16/1
0-2 12/1
1-2 10/1
2-2 2/1
2-3 2/1
3-2 2/1

FGS: 4/1

Again (not allowing for substitutes) there's little correlation between scoring first and the score. It makes generalising hard to the level you're looking for.

Fab

This does work with any scoreline.
Using the clean sheet market price is easier to work out than deducting the score to nil suggested by checkboxes.
Bear in mind that it is a rough estimate of the true price and will be substantially more than the bookies offer.

Fab:
The 8/1
(9decimal) on the correct score is Halved becoming 7/2 (4.5 decimal)
4.9*4.5 = 22.05 or 21.05/1

Rule of thumb and will be a wee bit under bookies offers

Examples for Wolves Birmingham game today.

K Doyle FGS               7.2
Wolves 1-0                8.2
Birmingham Clean Sheet No 1.27

7.2*8.2/1.27=46.48

or

M.King                 8.2
Birmingham 1-0         13.0
Wolves Clean Sheet No  1.5

8.2*13/1.5=71.06

Thanks for the examples Ell. Your calculations seem to make sense.
Did you find that out yourself or are you a bookie?

Certainly not a bookie.
I look through general betting once in a while looking for ideas and stumbled on your ?.

You can see why bookies try to promote this type of bet.

Interesting stuff Ell,and thanks for sharing, does the clean sheet include the  goal-less draw?

It does.

BALDBET

Man u v bolton - last sat

ROONEY 3-0      25-1

pathetic

Thanks Ell for your time.Appreciated