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New Betfair Terms & Conditions? : Bets placed between Betfair customers in-running at correct prices may or may not stand dependant upon whether or not a rogue trade is placed subsequently. All fair bets struck in-running before the rogue bet will be voided anyway, if there is a rogue bet later on.
How does Betfair's decision not encourage people with trades that have gone against them to try to crash the market? There is now a massive incentive to try to do exactly that, which could save someone who is in danger of losing tens of thousands of pounds placed on a fair bet in-running, from having to pay up on that loss. Its the same as 15 years ago, when people were repeatedly vandalising the floodlights at Premier League games, successfully getting matches abandoned which were going against their bets. Betfair should rip up what they have done, and go back and settle all in-running trades on that Leopardstown market which made before the rogue bet. Anything else is a really dangerous precedent. |
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The Premier Leaugue thing Ballabriggs was so they'd win the bet (when it was in the correct score/position for them to win and the lights would be cut). It was not because the bet was going tits up. That's theory behind it.
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An exceptional point well made ballabriggs. Lots of technologies exist which monitor and deal with such things, but they tend to fix smart attacks/smart problems which smart people can identify and resolve. This bet was similar to Mr Bean painting his house. As soon as someone develops the equivalent of a binary jelly and ice cream bomb hoyed into a fan then we're all doomed and they'll rule the world
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Betfairs system itself has crashed in play many times and they generally don't void. This wasn't a crash in play this was something happening that violated the way the markets work, and either left an unsuspecting punter or betfair itself with a massive liability, that actually could've been worse - £600m? I'd think if someone sat and tried OTHER such things to see if they could get similar bad things to happen, betfair might notice and they would be playing with fire - they might lose a lot of their money in the "trying"?
Oddly enough though I do remember something happening a while ago (can't quite remember details) where they did do something like void all bets after a specific point in time and settle bets before, so while I think not paying out after the problem was completely understandable, having a cut off of bets up to the point the problem bet was made would've been reasonable. |
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Breon Corcoran may have a serious problem when he takes up the reigns as CEO. Paddy Power are a dynamic, jazzy, constantly looking for publicity, customer-friendly and media-friendly outfit. They are proactive in paying out on occasional gimmicks, and although like all bookmakers they do restrict winners (inevitably), they are probably on the (losing) punters' side. This is inevitably what will have to happen at Betfair once they run out of sneaky cross-skimming revenue streams and the like.
How will he fit into an environment of stone cold silence, banning the media from even the AGM? . Tony Calvin has been savaged in over 500 posts on here, with probably not one single favourable comment about his performance. Yet it is he who has prospered, and Mark Davies who was pushed out, with only one of the board bothered to even say goodbye to him,...? How is this possible for a FTSE 250 company? ![]() Something will have to give once he is appointed, and maybe he will come over to the current temporary Betfair culture of omerta, which does them so much damage to their own reputation, and is sad to behold. Betfair have left open a massive can of worms, there is now the clear incentive to sabotage markets if an in-running trade has moved in the wrong direction for someone with an open position. They could place a million pound bet, watch it going a bit belly up, then decide to log on from a second account with only £1000 in it and place £600m bets wrecking the market. Its only a question of when someone (deliberately) finds a new loophole, not whether or not it is possible. Betfair have made a MASSIVE mistake voiding the fair bets which had already been placed in-running on Voler La Vedette before the rogue bet hit the market. [They also made mistakes voiding the place market, and not suspending other markets at all until the vulnerability had been found and stopped from being possible again,...]. The fact is they probably have realised too late they put too little thought into the void, but are following the current Betfair culture of now trying to ignore it and hope it goes away. This time Betfair faced a bill of 0 pence, not even making any goodwill gestures such as a commission discount to affected accounts. Next time if someone succeeds in deliberately wrecking a market, it may be for malicious reasons, and as usual, the genuine 99% of people will lose out, Betfair will make up a new story to fit around the next event (which will conveniently leave a bill of zero pence again...), which will be inconsistent with previous decisions, as this one was with earlier decisions too. Its a shambles, and Betfair itself deserves better than this ill thought through ramshackle. |
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This is a huge overreaction. Betfair has been going for 11 years plus...why do you think there is any more chance people wanting to sabotage markets now than in those 11 years? Why should Betfair pay out on this race? They didn't lose the money did they? Surely the rogue account should pay out?
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jimmy69, for 11 years if we placed a bet in-running against another user, that bet stood. For the last few days, if we placed bets in-running fair and square, they can still be voided if there is a subsequent crash of the market (deliberate or not). This is quite a big material change.
No system is perfect, in time, whether its days, months, or years, more problems will eventually surface. The problem here is that there is now a powerful incentive for people to spend time trying to work out how to crash markets. Bets that have gone against you may yet be voided, for no good reason, if you can crash the market with a rogue bet. Is this not a recipe inviting trouble? The rewards from deliberate sabotage have now gone from unknown, towards potentially millions of pounds. This is not right. The issue is not whether or not Betfair should pay out on this race, whose money it was on the screen, whether the rogue bet account holder should pay out etcetera. The issue is that bets pre-off stood, bets in-running pre the rogue bet were void, and bets placed subsequent to the rogue offer were void. The bets in-running placed at fair prices between genuine users should not have been voided. That is the issue, and the only reason they have been is surely not spending enough time analysing how the market played out. This precedent of voiding completely legitimate and fair bets, placed on Betfair between genuine users, for no justifiable reason whatsoever, is a toxic mix when combined with the likelihood of a future void if someone can work out how to crash the system again. That is the issue. Win or lose, those genuine bets at genuine prices should have stood. |
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The issue of voiding one market (place) because of an error in the other market (win) also sits a bit dangerously to me.
It's effectively protected the people who are relying on linked bots to create prices. I have no issue with linked bots, they'll happen whether I like them or not, but I do have an issue with the protection of them. If I generate a price not knowing a tennis player has an injured leg then I lose my money. I don't see why a bot user using bad information should be able to keep theirs. |
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Ballabriggs...the issue over whether bets could be voided or not on any market has always been there since Day 1. Why can't we have some praise for Betfair for providing a platform where millions of bets have been placed without any problem?
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jimmy69, you introduced a number of red herrings in your first post (this thread wasn't about (1) whether or not Betfair should pay out on the race overall, nor was this thread about (2) whether or not Betfair or the rogue account are culpable, nor was it about (3) Betfair's own pecuniary position in the market). All three of your red herrings I dealt with anyway, and you have had clear answers. Its no problem if you don't want to acknowledge them.
Betfair should have let (1) the pre-off bets stand, (2)the in-running bets before the rogue bet stand, and then (arguably) they should have voided (3) all subsequent bets once the rogue bet had entered the market. It is in Betfair's best interest to let (1) and (2) stand, and for (3) to be voided. A decision has been made to void both (2) and (3), instead of just (3), and this has serious potential ramifications to haunt Betfair in the future. Everyone sensible who wants the best for Betfair would have liked to have seen bets (2) stand instead of being voided, especially because of the dangerous precedent this sets. Your desire to seek praise for Betfair is to be commended, you are outnumbered by at a guess 300 or 400 to 1 on this forum, by people who don't think Betfair deserve praise, particulary in light of the recent events in the last couple of years. If it makes you happy then yes it is wonderful that Betfair have provided a platform where half a trillion bets have been placed with only occasional problems, but that still doesn't take away from the issue highlighted in this thread, which is not about your red herrings, its saying that by voiding the bets (2) placed in good faith between genuine customers, has the very realistic potential to do significant damage to people who have the misfortune to bet on a sabotaged market in the future, and is leaving a ticking timebomb which could do another £70m of damage to the share price. Singing Betfair's praises is great, and it's great you push for other people to do it, but nobody wants to see Betfair take another £70,000,000 hit to its share price, so maybe they should have a think about why they've decided to void perfectly fair and legitimate bets highlighted in (2). Have a think about it. |
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I agree with you Ballabriggs. They should admit they were wrong to void the IR-bets that were matched before the big mysterious bet appeared, and compensate the players who missed out on winnings because of that (a bit late to take that money out of other players accounts now, and it's probably not that much money anyway?).
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I couldn't care less whether Betfair takes another hit to its share price. I don't own any shares in them and I suspect very few other forumites do.
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Oh and I thought all pre off best were allowed to stand. Is that not true?
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bets not best ffs
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ballabriggs 01 Jan 12 17:59
jimmy69, for 11 years if we placed a bet in-running against another user, that bet stood. For the last few days, if we placed bets in-running fair and square, they can still be voided if there is a subsequent crash of the market (deliberate or not). This is quite a big material change. No system is perfect, in time, whether its days, months, or years, more problems will eventually surface. The problem here is that there is now a powerful incentive for people to spend time trying to work out how to crash markets. Bets that have gone against you may yet be voided, for no good reason, if you can crash the market with a rogue bet. Is this not a recipe inviting trouble? The rewards from deliberate sabotage have now gone from unknown, towards potentially millions of pounds. This is not right. ____________________ Spot on BB - very good points indeed -all bets prior to the lump sum appearing on the screen should be honoured - i haven't seen any argument against this |
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If the bet were treated like a system crash, which effectively they've said it was (techonololoowhatnot failure) then all bets to that point should indeed be honoured.
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jimmy69
Why can't we have some praise for Betfair for providing a platform where millions of bets have been placed without any problem? There's plenty of praise provided by way of Premium Charge, commission etc etc. The fact that people stick around despite having to pay it is a tacit form of praise. But this shouldn't detract from the fact that this issue has been handled abysmally by Betfair. As mentioned earlier, there is no good reason to void the place market, apart from saving the skin of those who derive prices from the win market. And this sort of occurrence would surely be an occupational hazard for those punters? It's either gross incompetence on Betfair's part, Betfair being economical with the truth in terms of the details it has released or both. My bet would be the latter. |
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It's clear they have been economical with the truth but to call the discovery of a system bug gross incompetence is ridiculous.
And reading about betfairs "abysmal", "disastrous", etc, etc handling of affairs is getting very boring. There are people on here who complain whatever happens and however it's handled, usually managing to quote the premium charge while almost never having an actual alternative suggestion. |
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ballabriggs is spot on. Voiding the fair bets struck before that bet entered the market was unjust and very ill advised. What would they have done if it had been entered as a keep bet a second before the off?
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The voiding of any race is a major decision which should be made only for exceptional circumstances when it is clear that NOT to void the race would be clearly wrong decison.If voided, thst should as a matter of course be extended to derivative markets.
Having made the decision to void, there is then the issue of whether partial or total voiding is the right course.In my view, and I realise that I am in the minority on this, there is such complexity in betting patterns which involves inter-related bets placed by maany players now given the opportunity that an exchange offers, that only a total voiding of both pre and post markets provides the means by which no player is disadvantaged as a result of the voiding decision itself. The loss of a missed opportunity to win is as nothing compared to a forced loss as a result of an administrative decision, imo. |
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I still can't believe you're taking this line Sandown. What about people who thought they backed the winner and played in subsequent markets on the strength of those winnings (even though they hadn't hit their account)? Should all markets up to the decision being made be void on that basis? If they change the decision at a later date should all markets in between be void? To start voiding fairly struck bets involving true liquidity providers (in a race won by a short priced horse I might add) in order to save the sensitivities of the odd punter who likes to close out in running (many of whom won't even expect to get their closing trade matched) would be suicide for betfair.
Ages ago Rollo Tomasi put forward a sound idea whereby those who placed bets with the idea of closing out could indicate the same. If they were denied that opportunity due to e.g. an outage their bet was made void (up to some maximum) and betfair had to stand the other side of the bet (up to that maximum). There wasn't a single voice among pages of Ferengi moaning about the outage that supported the idea. |
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Sandown, your intentions look very noble, but in practical terms I don't think that would work.
Each year Betfair Bob finds a number of new Joe Punters, each looking to place their 'twenty tenners please'. Imagine if for the Grand National 2012, all these new Joe Punters log onto Betfair place their bets at say 11am or midday, then ponder the day with excitement, talking to their mates about which horse they've each chosen. It gets to 4.20pm, they're off, and its a wildly exciting race, with many contenders in the running throughout. With 60 seconds to go, someone then manages to place a £600m bet into the market at 28/1, and that horse then wins. Those Joe Punters who had their twenty tenners on that horse to win will be sat watching the race, thrilled to bits that they've just won, on probably a 10/1 to 14/1 shot. They'll tell Mrs Joanna Punter she can have a new kitchen. They'll promise their daughter Joanna Punter Jr. a little tricycle with pink tassels on it. Then they'll log back on to Betfair, and find that every single bet on the entire Grand National 2012 has been voided, because of a combination of someone crashing the market (either deliberately or not), and weaknesses in Betfair's IT architecture. This would include bets at 11am or midday, none of which were anything to do with the new rogue bet. Your idea is noble, and is perhaps the Corinthian ideal, but the reality would be absolute unprecedented carnage. |
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as just checking states, the policy on events which are in play when the betfair site goes down, is to honour all bets placed, both before the event started and in play.
the monstrous bleating to be found on the tennis forum when this happens, and people who have bet in play are left with exposures they would usually have heavily hedged, shows that befair's policy is to honour "gamblers" bets over managing "traders" dissatisfaction. i'm happy to defend this policy on the principle stated by the OP: if someone found the ability to bring the site down, in the knowledge that befair would void all in play markets affected at the time, they bet with an unfair advantage. the decision to void everything in play on the Leopardstown event does seem to be totally at odds with previous actions when technological failures have been encountered, and it does seem that voiding everything struck after the freak bet hit the market, would have been the more consistent decision; everyone who bets in play is (or at the very least should be) aware that they may not be able to hedge their stake if a technological error prevents them from doing so, and have little recourse if this does happen. |
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Sandown,
A punter who has had a horse refuse to race, rather betting pre-race may wait until they set off then immediately place their bet. Why should they not get paid? No reduction factors in running might also mean people wait until just after the off. Personally I think all bets should stand. Betfair extended someone a lot of credit that resulted in a negative balance. In the past they have paid out on those. Just because this time the amount is larger shouldn't make any difference. Anyway this £23m is a phoney figure. I'd knock off at least 33% for commission and Premium Charge. Then bear in mind that the winnings are only loaned to punters on here because PC means they have to pay it back as higher charges on future wins. |
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As for the original points, there are more serious problems with what Betfair have done. It seemed obvious to divide the bets into (1) those made pre-off, (2) those made in-running at genuine prices between Betfair users, and (3) those made after the £600m rogue bet had hit the market. Betfair's decision to void (3) is understandable, but voiding (2) is unacceptable.
However, Betfair's SP machine is active in the markets, especially in the final moments as a market is about to be turned in-play/turned in-play. Were bets placed by the Betfair SP bot themselves voided? Did Betfair gain a financial advantage to its own book from the voiding of (2)? Voiding (2) was a terrible decision, but there is a difference between doing it for reasons of gormlessness, and doing it for reasons of gaining a financial advantage. Let's hope there wasn't a more sinister reason behind voiding (2). Also, the voiding of the place market has a very bad smell about it. People deriving a price from the main market are using the information from other market participants, to profit themselves. This is only 1 race out of 10,000s. There was no rogue bet in the place market, all bets were placed using information from the main market. If Warwick Hunt is allowed to lose £250,000 laying a horse at 1000 on Betfair, and Betfair say that's fine as he had the money in his account and placed the bet of his own free will, then a bot programmer, who also has the money in his account, and programmes it to use information from the main market, has also had a bot he has programmed bet exactly in the way he has ordered it to. [He could have even programmed the bot to ignore orders of more than £10,000 on the screen too, had he been exceptionally shrewd]. Both Warwick Hunt, and the place market bot programmer, have placed bets exactly as they ordered, however only one of them has had to pay the price. If there is informational value in deriving place prices from the main market, why must the bot programmer not be subjected to the same risk every other user is subjected to? If it turns out that it is again Betfair's money which has been saved by this void of the place market decision, because it was somehow some Betfair related bot at work, it is incredibly unfair for Steven Morana to give the Betfair related bot favoured treatment. If its not Betfair's money, why was it voided? It makes no sense, plus much of the place market betting in-running took place before the rogue bet hit the main market. So now Betfair have voided bets on an unaffected market, placed during a time when the rogue bet hadn't even hit the main market yet. This is not right. Betfair have to go back to thinking that a genuine matched and struck bet, should be honoured as such. |
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I know that I am arguing on a point of principle (noble or not) and that maybe not many people are affected by this decision and perhaps the consequences woukd otherwise be greater, but that is not the point. As in the law, first establish the point of law, then guilt or innocence, then apply the penalty.
BF has created the means by which it is no longer necessary to limit a bet to who is most likely to pass the post first (or not.) It is also possible to see a race in terms of the price point that a horse (or player) may reach in running. If I decide hypothetically that a horse priced at 10.0 can reach 5.0 in running giving me a 2.0 price if successful, is that any less meaningful than someone backing a horse at 2.0 to win the race? Because I have to say that for the life of me I can't see the difference. By voiding just the post-off bets BF took an administrative decision that effectivly gives me no chance of succeeding (unless of course the horse wins.) Why should this be case, especially when you consider that i would be making a bet in a near-**** market what with fast pics players etc. Now what i have used as an example happens in most races i should think, where there are players who follow such a strategy whereas the example that You use Ballabriggs, is an unlikely scenario although perhaps of a slightly higher probability than before. Most of the negative response to my suggestion is to do with the consequences of winners not being paid out (ignoring the much greater number of losers), the loss of commission etc. Well, for my money that's just too bad and something you have to put up with. If a race is voided because something has occured which makes it necessary to void the whole race (as opposed to a single or small number of runners where a R4 can be applied) then to my mind that is less unsatisfactory than delberately creating a number of losers who have just as much right as anyone else to expect the same treatment as the next man. What ballabriggs insinuates about BF's motives behind all of this, well I would have thought that none of us would use the "palpable error" rule in the face of a £23m payout. (I find that no palpable error get out for the player is an inescusable ommittance from the T&C - what is sauce for the goose is sauce for thhe gander.) feck, your point about people who have conditional bets in other markets is a complete red herring with no logical reason to mention it other than to find a negative. Your argument is completely biased against either small players or "traders2 in favour of 2genuine liquidity players" and introduces value judgements about players which is totally irrelevent. We don't usually differ in view but in this I believe that your prejudices are showing. You know full well that I am not a trader but an opinion player and i would have to say that if i had been playing as backer then (on the winner) then I would be worse off under my argument. But that's life. We should be seeking a level playing field all round not arguing just from our own best interests which you clearly do. |
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none of us would NOT use the "palpable error" rule
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ballabriggs, would allowing bets placed in the place market after the rogue bet hit the win market to stand not also be an incentive to mess up the win market in order to profit from the place market.
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Sandown, as you say we are usually on the same side and I think we're just going to have to agree to differ on this. My dislike of traders may be showing through (even though I don't consider those trying to close out pre-off bets ir as Ferengi) but I genuinely believe it would be suicide for betfair to adopt your stance. I once had a similar lengthy argument with medemi (another I considered an old mucker) on this very subject.
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Would you not be better supporting the suggestion of Rollo's that I posted.
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Feck,doesn't that suggestion swing the other way and confer a preferential advantage not available to others?
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In what way Sandown?
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Sandown
Respect your opinions over the years very much so curious this one is misalinged with mine.... PLACE MARKET granted there are many related bets between the two, and bots pricing place form win... but surely if they use bad data to make thier prices that is thier issue... fine they may have a claim against betfair for supplying them bad data - but Betfair would win that claim. so not sure why they should be allowed to void. **** market what is the **** market had a bad bet.... and all the arbing bots, arbed **** to betfair.... should betfair void the markets because a related market was corrupted? is see some issues for the place being effected by the win, and people with win lays and places backs or similar insruance startergies... but surely the place was not FORMALLY effected and so it should stand... |
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There is a keep bet facility so why not a keep bet trade? In case in running isn't operating.
When someone backs pre-race intending to lay shorter they set the price and stake. If the horse wins it's usually safe to assume the bet was matched. If someone lays pre-race to back higher, if the horse loses it's usually safe to assume the bet was matched. The grey areas are lays at a shorter price that didn't win that may have had the price matched or backs that won that could have traded higher. There you could just say they don't count and are void or devise a way to decide prices were hit and bets matched. This could be using prices traded somewhere else or a panel decides on a price for each horse in running and bets are settled on that. It means Betfair get commission in a situation they don't now. They don't necessarily make a profit because they stand the bets but at least more customers have less to moan about. |
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ballabriggs
the precedent was set when they introduced the x matching alg unannounced on horse racing - everything since is based on arrogance, contempt and above all greed |
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Feck
Because the back to lay or LtoB player has his risk reduced, the pre-off player doesn't. Magician The situation that occured was supposedly 1 in x million chance and to a level that was bigger in outcome than might possibly beimagined. The safe course of action was to completely void so that no-one benefited, no-one lost. The derivative markets could not be assumed to be uninvolved. A thorough investigation might take ages. Accident or design? Innocent or guilty? I wwould have played safe. hese were exceptional circumstances. Rollo The above comments apply. |
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Sandown, the first floodlight failure and resultant match abandonment at a Premier League match 15 years ago could have been described as a one in 10,000 chance. When it happened again shortly after, its not a one in 10,000 chance anymore,....
Most people do believe Betfair's account that this was an accidental bet, from a relatively small account. However, the decision by Betfair to void not just bets placed in the market after the rogue bet had been submitted, but also to void many, many (hundreds of?) bets all placed completely fairly and in good faith at fair prices before the rogue bet was put in, plus more voids in a secondary market both pre-rogue bet and post-rogue bet, means that Betfair have opened up Pandora's Box. People will now be looking to crash markets if they can, if their trades have gone against them. Steven Morana/Tony Calvin et al have pinned their colours to the mast that they are happy voiding fair bets placed at fair prices before the rogue bet, and voiding bets in a separate market too, even those matched as fair done deals before the rogue bet had even been submitted into the main one. We're not dealing with lightning striking twice, the precedent set here with this voiding means there is a huge reward on offer to anyone dishonest who can work out how to crash the Betfair markets in future. Betfair should change the way they voided many of these bets, and go back to settle them, or else if a deliberate act of sabotage does materialise, its going to be a case of Stephen Morana/Tony Calvin et al knowing in advance that there was a problem with the precedent they had set, and doing nothing about it. If their actions do lead to an act of sabotage, because someone dishonest thought they could get in-running trades that had gone against them voided, then it would definitely be time for the interim CEO to be forced to resign. None of us want to see that happen, but especially so the shareholders. |
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Because the back to lay or LtoB player has his risk reduced, the pre-off player doesn't.
I don't understand that Sandown. The pre-off gambler gets what he wants the hedger gets nothing as he wasn't given the chance to close out. No advantage there. It doesn't matter to the gambler the race doesn't go in play. Personally I think Rollo's idea adds further complexity to an already over complex site so I'd be against the idea unless it was something that had to be set in My Account or some equally obscure place. |
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Why are you continually banging on about this Ballabriggs?
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