General Betting
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Looking through my figures for the last 50 months, I find that my average profit is £914.14. That's all fine and dandy, but I wonder if other long-term punters could comment on the distribution of P/L that I've had over this period? My fear is that I lack consistency. However, another voice in my head says that such deviations are normal over a long timeframe and that I shouldn't alter my approach.
2007-10 October -7,999.59
2007-11 November 4,221.19
2007-12 December -6,970.38
2008-01 January 408.32
2008-02 February 26.86
2008-03 March -4,636.46
2008-04 April 1.25
2008-05 May 4,043.84
2008-06 June 3,550.47
2008-07 July 4,591.35
2008-08 August -2,499.05
2008-09 September 3,470.62
2008-10 October -2,114.26
2008-11 November 1,726.48
2008-12 December 2,087.50
2009-01 January 2,532.15
2009-02 February 1,155.50
2009-03 March 12.73
2009-04 April 3,318.91
2009-05 May -4,330.29
2009-06 June 3,022.22
2009-07 July 5,771.97
2009-08 August 2,142.85
2009-09 September -5,094.11
2009-10 October -1,957.64
2009-11 November 57.07
2009-12 December 7,430.66
2010-01 January 2,009.96
2010-02 February 9.19
2010-03 March 5,210.85
2010-04 April -3,636.19
2010-05 May -8,659.54
2010-06 June 156.76
2010-07 July 959.04
2010-08 August 6,634.94
2010-09 September 212.72
2010-10 October 2,061.89
2010-11 November 2,264.86
2010-12 December 24.06
2011-01 January 8,028.56
2011-02 February 6,584.11
2011-03 March 2,731.48
2011-04 April -5,641.88
2011-05 May 4,592.98
2011-06 June 9,024.55
2011-07 July -12,374.77
2011-08 August 114.15
2011-09 September 3,846.22
2011-10 October 1,579.59
2011-11 November 6,003.09
So, in total, 38 of the last 50 months have been profit-making. However, the 12 losing ones include some whoppers, including a -£12k and a couple of -£8ks. Prior to the 50 months listed above, I enjoyed 29 months of consecutive profit. It's for this reason I feel that I should be putting all of my 2012 efforts into becoming a more consistent gambler.
That, of course, raises the question of how one can avoid heavy losing months. Psychologically, I'm vulnerable in this respect. I pay too much attention to month-ends and allow my stakes to creep up if it looks like I could wind up in the red. The £12k loss this summer, of which I'm deeply ashamed, was a combination of outrageously bad luck and my stubborn refusal to lie back and take it.
I guess what I'm therefore saying is yes, there are aspects of my punting that I need to address, especially during losing periods. However, I'm also conscious that given the level and regularity of my staking, some losing months are inevitable, and even a £12k hit might not be outside the normal distribution boundaries.
All feedback welcome - thanks.
2007-10 October -7,999.59
2007-11 November 4,221.19
2007-12 December -6,970.38
2008-01 January 408.32
2008-02 February 26.86
2008-03 March -4,636.46
2008-04 April 1.25
2008-05 May 4,043.84
2008-06 June 3,550.47
2008-07 July 4,591.35
2008-08 August -2,499.05
2008-09 September 3,470.62
2008-10 October -2,114.26
2008-11 November 1,726.48
2008-12 December 2,087.50
2009-01 January 2,532.15
2009-02 February 1,155.50
2009-03 March 12.73
2009-04 April 3,318.91
2009-05 May -4,330.29
2009-06 June 3,022.22
2009-07 July 5,771.97
2009-08 August 2,142.85
2009-09 September -5,094.11
2009-10 October -1,957.64
2009-11 November 57.07
2009-12 December 7,430.66
2010-01 January 2,009.96
2010-02 February 9.19
2010-03 March 5,210.85
2010-04 April -3,636.19
2010-05 May -8,659.54
2010-06 June 156.76
2010-07 July 959.04
2010-08 August 6,634.94
2010-09 September 212.72
2010-10 October 2,061.89
2010-11 November 2,264.86
2010-12 December 24.06
2011-01 January 8,028.56
2011-02 February 6,584.11
2011-03 March 2,731.48
2011-04 April -5,641.88
2011-05 May 4,592.98
2011-06 June 9,024.55
2011-07 July -12,374.77
2011-08 August 114.15
2011-09 September 3,846.22
2011-10 October 1,579.59
2011-11 November 6,003.09
So, in total, 38 of the last 50 months have been profit-making. However, the 12 losing ones include some whoppers, including a -£12k and a couple of -£8ks. Prior to the 50 months listed above, I enjoyed 29 months of consecutive profit. It's for this reason I feel that I should be putting all of my 2012 efforts into becoming a more consistent gambler.
That, of course, raises the question of how one can avoid heavy losing months. Psychologically, I'm vulnerable in this respect. I pay too much attention to month-ends and allow my stakes to creep up if it looks like I could wind up in the red. The £12k loss this summer, of which I'm deeply ashamed, was a combination of outrageously bad luck and my stubborn refusal to lie back and take it.
I guess what I'm therefore saying is yes, there are aspects of my punting that I need to address, especially during losing periods. However, I'm also conscious that given the level and regularity of my staking, some losing months are inevitable, and even a £12k hit might not be outside the normal distribution boundaries.
All feedback welcome - thanks.
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Replies: 29
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Anyone?
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Variance is the norm and the long term is all that matters.
If you go down the consistency route I imagine your losses will be smaller but so will your wins and so the long term graph will be a 'straighter' line but the end result will be very similar. |
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My monthly figures are similar to your own in that I have had 11 losing months in my last 50. I also have narrower band - biggest win 7.4K biggest loss -2.3K. My main aim has been look after the bank. I hate variance. I wish I could accept it as I believe 'consistency' has cost me. I never seem to be as happy with a good win as I am pi$$ed off with a similar sized loss. Just before xmas I had a 1K loss (half of which I tilted away). Yesterday I had a £700 win, and I also had a few £400 daily wins inbetween. Yet that £1K loss still rankles me and I don't appreciate that I won it back plus some. If I could stick variance without tilting I would accept it - I'm trying but it goes against my nature.
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DrJ, Daveb, what are you betting on?
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Personally I've never understood the logic of looking at these things on the basis of month end figures.
Just because you're in the middle of a betting downswing on the last day of one month, and in the middle of an upswing at the end of another month, what does it mean or matter ?. What is important is that your regular downswings/upswings are relatively consistent both in depth and in time and are not showing wild variances from past norms. No successful betting or investment strategy will go up in a straight line after all, there will be peaks and troughs. I would suggest ( as a layman I might add) that you ( Dr J) just plot a simple graph showing time on one axis, and profit on the other, and see whether you performance is satisfactorily upward, with normal up and down fluctuations. From the general sound of things, it would appear that it is. Why over complicate what is after all a seemingly good betting track record. It it ain't broke, don't fix it. Don't analyse just for the sake of analysis. Or is your gut telling you that something is not right ? |
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Or are you God forbid, just showing off ?.
Couldn't resist that one Dr J-sorry. You know me. |
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After all it does make nice reading. For us others as well, who need tales of success for encouragement. A warm after glow and all that.
And so I don't really blame you for a little bit of self-laudatory posting, if that's what it simply is. |
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I've just failed the 3 successive post test ( proposed by someone else for banning purposes).
It was perhaps inevitable that I would be the first to fall at this hurdle ? |
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Don't calculate your monthly figures until the next month.
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You've probably answered your own question with the line
"The £12k loss this summer, of which I'm deeply ashamed, was a combination of outrageously bad luck and my stubborn refusal to lie back and take it." Being consistent with a winning approach is all that really counts, as a punter you'll always have losing races/weeks etc so the time periods you set yourself shouldn't be relevant. We all know the chasers never come out on top because they put too much emphasis on a losing race you just need to avoid that trap too by looking at losing months. I look at my own stats over various rolling periods rather than set end dates and seems to help me avoid those silly errors of chasing or unneccessarily increasing stakes. |
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Exactement GJ.
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I feel the OP needs a congratulatory pat on the back...well done son...keep up the good work
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You've probably answered your own question with the line
"The £12k loss this summer, of which I'm deeply ashamed, was a combination of outrageously bad luck and my stubborn refusal to lie back and take it." True, although we don't know how often he does chase and how much it's affected the figures overall, as some losing months will now appear less bad. I can't really see how you can lower the variance anyway, the selections, prices achieved and results are what they are, the only way to lower the variance is to lower the stake and that's a step backwards. |
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Thanks for the replies.
"If you go down the consistency route I imagine your losses will be smaller but so will your wins and so the long term graph will be a 'straighter' line but the end result will be very similar." I'm sure you're right, buzzer, but a straighter line would definitely be preferable for me. I don't like the variance at all and would even give up some of my profit in return for greater consistency. Maybe trev is right and some stake-lowering is needed. "Yet that £1K loss still rankles me and I don't appreciate that I won it back plus some." I can identify with your post 100%, dave. Although I would add that it's probably this kind of rankling that, ultimately, makes a profit-making punter. I know I set my sights very high and constantly feel disappointed, even during the good times. "Personally I've never understood the logic of looking at these things on the basis of month end figures." I agree, FAAFH. It's a counter-productive habit. Months are arbitrary periods. It makes no sense to be enslaved by them. I will try to follow Joe and Lori's advice but it won't be easy for me. dpm - I bet only on horse racing. Best wishes to all for 2012. |
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I agree that a rolling period is a good way to get the variance down. I normally take a year/12 for each new month. Gives a smoother perspective.
dpm - darts, football, NFL, snooker, and to a lesser extent golf and cricket. |
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I'm sure you're right, buzzer, but a straighter line would definitely be preferable for me. I don't like the variance at all and would even give up some of my profit in return for greater consistency. Maybe trev is right and some stake-lowering is needed.
Dr J, 'giving up profit in return for greater consistency' will be extremely expensive, as you will almost certainly pay PC (or more PC if you pay already). The PC is an incentive to do the opposite. I used to have very consistent returns as well, including a 52 consecutive weeks of profit period in 2009. I massively increased variance and got my comm generated over 20% (though 40% is a bit too difficult I think). I've made about twice as much in 2011 versus 2009, paying about a third of the PC, and have had 3 losing months. Since 2007 I haven't had a losing quarter. If you don't need immediate cash flow, I would strongly advise against paying for greater consistency. If you do want to go ahead and do this anyway, maybe we can strike a deal, I'll buy some of the risk off you  |
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If there is "subjectivity" in applying some of FACTORS when apraising a horse race, then you will always have "fluctuations".
As long as generally you are "right" on applying the "subjective" input, then your profits should be very good , with exceptional days when you get most of races "right". When you get many races "wrong", which will happen on some days.....usually down to going being not "clear"probably , then such days should be a lower fluctuation compared to when you get days "right". There will also be many days when you are not in top form appraising races, but on most of the mediocre days the fluctuations should be at a very low level........so should not damage bank too much. Probably the key factor is yourself.........and you need to recognise early in day when you are just not getting "subjective" inputs correct.......This is not "easy" to do........so fluctuations always likely to happen. GL with NEW YEAR. |
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The PC is an incentive to do the opposite.
This is something I've considered but not really got my head around how to do it. Let's say you have a green book in a two runner market of £100 on each and they are currently both priced @2.00. Instead of letting this position ride, you could bet £200 on one of the runners so you have a position of +300 and -100 on the runners. Is there an optimal position to reduce PC in this example? I would think that this approach wouldn't help much though if you only had one such market per week? |
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The Investor
"Buy some of the risk off you ? ". How exactly ? Or is this just a theoretical rocket scientist type musing a la the mortgage derivative creators at the Wall St. investment banks. And we know where all that ended up. Kaboom. |
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I notice your worst month is July and your best is January so there is a definite seasonal link
to your type of betting, perhaps you should seasonally adjust the volume of your betting? |
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Bff, I think you're probably reading too much into the figures, it's impossible to tell with such a short sample whether it's performance related or just random variance, but my guess is the latter.
DFC, you always seem to believe that when you've had a bad day you must have done something wrong or not been at your best, which is an easy assumption to make in hindsight but one I totally disagree with because results are totally unknown before the event and anything can and will happen. Correlating a poor days profit to a poor days decision making is illogical IMO. Just an observation and no offence intended of course, but that's what you used to do in your c/s threads following a poor result. |
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Trevh 29 Dec 11 01:59
Bff, I think you're probably reading too much into the figures, it's impossible to tell with such a short sample whether it's performance related or just random variance, but my guess is the latter. DFC, you always seem to believe that when you've had a bad day you must have done something wrong or not been at your best, which is an easy assumption to make in hindsight but one I totally disagree with because results are totally unknown before the event and anything can and will happen. Correlating a poor days profit to a poor days decision making is illogical IMO. Just an observation and no offence intended of course, but that's what you used to do in your c/s threads following a poor result. ==================================================================== Trev- CS thread is irrelevant as far as I'm concerned, as I have no "edge" with FOOTBALL. HORSE RACING is a totally different "animal" to FOOTBALL, where there are far more FACTORS involved in rating a race . HR is not a TEAM sport and the complexity of HR makes it a sport where real "edge" can be attained. GOING is one of key FACTORS.........and a description might state in well known web-site "GOOD " 1 hour before race time. You can then rate a race based on going being "GOOD"...........abd after 1st race is finished the GOING changes to GOOD TO SOFT or GOOD GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES etc or GTS SOFT IP .....or SOFT etc etc Depends how heavy the rain teems down and the ground. There are also other FACTORS similar to GOING that can suddenly change.......with HR ......so whilst the RATINGS are up to "good standard" prior to 1st race........a change in GOING can make it far harder to assess a race. Better the going is SOFT than GOOD, GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES .......as it is clearer for rating purposes. There is SUBJECTIVITY involved in rating a race..........so I can get certain FACTORS "right" on most days where GOING is "clear".......but some days , where GOING is in-between, then the results will not be as good as on days when I get it "right". Obviously the human factor comes into play ...now and then......where I have an "off day".....but on such days the damage done should not be too great, unless the GOING or certain other FACTORS change drastically etc. Just to let you see the type of results on a day to day basis ( BACKING with 1 point in WIN market and LAYING to gain 1 point in WIN market , as well as LAYING in PLACE market to a fixed liability of 1 point and applying STRATEGIES re top 3 in market)........and you will see the days when I get it "right" give big returns....compared to days when I get it "wrong".......The net PROFIT is after using commission rate at 5% for stats purposes.....and it covers the 17 days in MARCH 2009....when I posted ratings on a thread in this forum...and had a stalker at that time who just did not understand how ratings can work.....( in fact he / she believed I was just making up ratings ...as I did not show POINTS against each horse) 03.03.09 13.3870501 04.03.09 25.4832747 05.03.09 2.3072125 06.03.09 9.6740934 07.03.09 -9.9543787 08.03.09 16.2505 09.03.09 13.6628713 10.03.09 2.2408567 11.03.09 -1.9078952 12.03.09 2.5657612 13.03.09 14.8420186 14.03.09 -9.827527 16.03.09 19.9917168 17.03.09 -8.4975576 18.03.09 6.1066239 19.03.09 16.5578348 20.03.09 13.1527579 ========================================== TOTAL NET PROFIT 126.03521 POINTS IN 17 DAYS ================================================== The above fluctuations are relatively "tame".....but when I get it "right" ....which is far more often than I get it "wrong".....the good days are very good...and the bad days are not so bad. ========================================================== Actually Trev....correlating a bad days results down changes to KEY FACTORS is perfectly "logical"......as the initial decisions can be up to a "good standard"...based on certain FACTORS.......but the CHANGE in conditions can lead to a "bad" day. ============================================================= Here are some other days results showing similar FLUCTUATIONS...... 15.07.08 70.2273337 16.07.08 18.2781564 17.07.08 3.5448172 18.07.08 -9.7217215 19.07.08 3.3692797 21.07.08 -3.9039255 22.07.08 28.79880031 23.07.08 71.7490646 24.07.08 33.206587 06.08.08 14.5561515 07.08.08 -33.5084364 08.08.08 14.4439349 09.08.08 59.5699229 ============================================================== 01.04.08 20.5639066 02.04.08 -10.0938267 03.04.08 38.6947717 04.04.08 13.669976 05.04.08 -10.6605929 06.04.08 -0.4212163 07.04.08 28.3488027 08.04.08 20.7134257 10.04.08 25.070692 11.04.08 0.5255682 12.04.08 21.7874368 13.04.08 6.2248177 14.04.08 19.4580971 15.04.08 0.7812552 16.04.08 10.1805586 17.04.08 3.795669 18.04.08 51.8246063 19.04.08 -0.9065743 20.04.08 24.3014318 21.04.08 -5.4649061 22.04.08 -0.6036892 23.04.08 10.1154503 26.04.08 -6.8791332 27.04.08 -8.6084789 28.04.08 36.0557858 =============================================================== Trust you note that generally I get it "right" more oftyen than I get it "wrong".....but I always try to evaluate why results might be "bad" or "medicre"......as usually there are logical reasons why I got it "wrong" on day! GL to you in NEW YEAR.....hope you and your family have a good one. Cheers the nooooooooooooooooooo |
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looking at the numbers only , i feel u are playing a very dangerous game. the variance indicates that ur loss probablity is very high which indicates the probality of 4 or 5 consecative big losing months is not ignorable, me thinks.
having said that if u can analyze the undrlying reason for ur losses and if u can rule out a large number of consecative losses then i would advise u to continue without decreasing ur liablity. |
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mediocre....just like my post
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Still carrying out checks on how certain STRATEGIES would have worked on previously rated races.......
If you consider the FLUCTUATIONS were "dodgy" above .....then the result on checking next 5 days in APRIL/MAY 2008 were as follows.......( typically the highest losing day onchecking results was just after I posted here  )29.04.08 -53.7191061 30.04.08 33.8839862 01.05.08 56.461575 02.05.08 15.6405726 03.05.08 7.6529559 Looks like will have to control STAKING more than anticipated.........was going to do so on LOSS of 33 points as the worst BAD DAY....and STAKING would be for example £30 a point with a £10,000 bank etc...... Will complete checks on all rated races , then decide on STAKING.....as about 1,800 races rated to check........and already checked 1,400 races, the STATS are still generally indicating that the system was doing its job! FLUCTUATIONS are just what happens.....and , as you will see from above........generally the GOOD days are better than the BAD days...... Cheers the nooooooo....and GL Dr J in 2012. |
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surely if you bet all week all the time, then your edge is a slim, and you need high turnover
to achieve your goals. and to have a slim edge on betfair, not exactly difficult, sum of those figurd, imo |
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dave b
When: 28 Dec 11 23:03 The PC is an incentive to do the opposite. This is something I've considered but not really got my head around how to do it. Let's say you have a green book in a two runner market of £100 on each and they are currently both priced @2.00. Instead of letting this position ride, you could bet £200 on one of the runners so you have a position of +300 and -100 on the runners. Is there an optimal position to reduce PC in this example? I would think that this approach wouldn't help much though if you only had one such market per week? As a rule, any bet at fair value or better is worth it within the limits you are comfortable with. FINE AS FROG HAIR When: 29 Dec 11 00:35 The Investor "Buy some of the risk off you ? ". How exactly ? Or is this just a theoretical rocket scientist type musing a la the mortgage derivative creators at the Wall St. investment banks. And we know where all that ended up. Kaboom. It's not really feasible. What I meant was that if he wanted to get rid of risk and give up value, I would always be willing to take the other side if I knew it was (marginal) value for me and I was comfortable with the bet size. |
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Cheers DFC, all the best to you and yours too.
Dr.J, I like analysing figures (masochist) and noticed your first year was a losing one, so made a quick tally of the following years: Year 1 : -£ 1792.58 Year 2 : £10231.65 Year 3 : £ 8427.82 Year 4 : £21256.21 Did you increase stake/liability in year 4, and/or did you refine the selection process to account for doubling the profit? I noticed your max drawdown for years 3 & 4 was also quite high (year 1 was very high) compared to profit at around 12k each, which would worry me about increasing stakes. Only you know, but the percentage of profit on turnover figures would be interesting and would be the deciding factor in whether to increase stakes or stay put IMO, and analysing what ever you did for the 29 months prior to the above stats. |
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Trev -
Thanks for getting all masochistic on my figures - I agree with your conclusions. It's strange for me to raed "Year 1 : -£ 1792.58" because I pride myself on never having had a losing (calendar) year. But you're right, of course. Did I change my betting strategy as a result of this losing period? I don't think so, but this is the kind of question which defies an objective answer. Broadly speaking, I've been doing the same thing on Betfair since January 2004, and in that times I've made about £200k. However, as a human being, I've no doubt had periods of low concentration, mild chasing and cavalier staking. The problem is, such behavioural patterns lurk deep in my subconscious and are notoriously difficult to transfer to an Excel spreadsheet.  I've never tried calculating percentage of profit on turnover because I lay multiple horses in each race and therefore find 'turnover' tricky to pin down. An earlier poster suggested I'm playing a 'dangerous game' and, although I don't agree entirely, that is why I opened this thread: to determine whether, statistically, I'm okay because I'm a long-term profit-churner or vulnerable because of these annoying variances. A couple of other quick points: I've never paid a penny in PC and am unlikely to for at least another year. For the time being, I'm deliberately not thinking about that prospect (although I agree that, in the long haul, decisions about consistency/fluctuation will need to take PC2 into account). I've often wondered whether there's a seasonal link between my figures, but I'll save that for another thread. Perhaps some of the statisticians could tell me if there's a meaningful correlation when I post all of my figures? My instinct is that the distribution is random, but what does my instinct know? Thanks again for the replies. The quality of feedback on this forum always impresses me. More importantly, it's uplifting to see just how friendly everyone is. GL for 2012 to all. |