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Hi all,
I am setting up a pool competition just between a few friends in aid of charity and I'm thinking of running a book on the event. However, I wouldn't know where to start with pricing up the odds and making sure I wouldn't pay out more than the stakes I receive. Any advice of how I would get started with this? I want my overround to be slightly over 100% with any additional profit from the book being put in the charity pot.
we are looking at having 16 runners and there are probably 2/3 players that stand out above the rest as having a good chance of winning.
Thanks in advance
I am setting up a pool competition just between a few friends in aid of charity and I'm thinking of running a book on the event. However, I wouldn't know where to start with pricing up the odds and making sure I wouldn't pay out more than the stakes I receive. Any advice of how I would get started with this? I want my overround to be slightly over 100% with any additional profit from the book being put in the charity pot.
we are looking at having 16 runners and there are probably 2/3 players that stand out above the rest as having a good chance of winning.
Thanks in advance
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If you think you are able to correctly price the runners, it's easy to create a book at whatever % you want to.
Just go to a multiple runner market on here like Premier League win market.
Click the lay button on 16 of the teams, insert the prices you want and add stakes. You will then see the book % and can adjust prices on the runners to get the book you want.
Just don't click the "submit" button while doing this
Just go to a multiple runner market on here like Premier League win market.
Click the lay button on 16 of the teams, insert the prices you want and add stakes. You will then see the book % and can adjust prices on the runners to get the book you want.
Just don't click the "submit" button while doing this
Don't forget to factor in three premium charges for the winners and 5% for everyone that enters!
Easy enough to make a 108% book
5/1
6/1
7/1
12/1 X2
14/1
16/1 X2
20/1 X3
25/1 X2
33/1 X3
but that doesn't guarantee you won't lose.
The hard part is making sure you balance the amounts you take so the losers cover the pay out
5/1
6/1
7/1
12/1 X2
14/1
16/1 X2
20/1 X3
25/1 X2
33/1 X3
but that doesn't guarantee you won't lose.
The hard part is making sure you balance the amounts you take so the losers cover the pay out
1. work out as a percentage how likely each player is to win, making the percentages add up to 100
2. for each player, calculate 100/(their percentage chance of winning). This gives their true price.
3. Take a little bit out of each runner, so make a true 3.0 shot 2.8, a true 50.0 shot 40.0, etc.
4. If a few people back the same player, cut his price and push the prices out slightly of people who no one wants to bet on, hopefully attracting money there and balancing the book.
2. for each player, calculate 100/(their percentage chance of winning). This gives their true price.
3. Take a little bit out of each runner, so make a true 3.0 shot 2.8, a true 50.0 shot 40.0, etc.
4. If a few people back the same player, cut his price and push the prices out slightly of people who no one wants to bet on, hopefully attracting money there and balancing the book.
Very easy to build a spreadsheet to work out the overround for you as prices change.
But tobermory's hit the nail on the head. Impossible to guarantee a profit with a traditional book.
Much better to do it on the Tote principle and build in a percentage for the charity.
But tobermory's hit the nail on the head. Impossible to guarantee a profit with a traditional book.
Much better to do it on the Tote principle and build in a percentage for the charity.
I want my overround to be slightly over 100% with any additional profit from the book being put in the charity pot.
You will probably lose as people will be better informed about their true odds.
You would need to take £10k to raise £100 with a 101% book on average, assuming you priced it perfectly!!
Have a little small print that says winning pot will be split 50/50 between the winners and charity, the winners will still be happy as they've won and you'd raise a decent amount for charity.
You will probably lose as people will be better informed about their true odds.
You would need to take £10k to raise £100 with a 101% book on average, assuming you priced it perfectly!!
Have a little small print that says winning pot will be split 50/50 between the winners and charity, the winners will still be happy as they've won and you'd raise a decent amount for charity.
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