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the big bossman
16 Dec 11 00:06
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Dec 08
| Topic/replies: 92 | Blogger: the big bossman's blog
Phone bets boost Betfair profits
(UKPA) – 1 day ago 
A surge in betting on mobile phones and the growing popularity of wagers on football helped online gambling firm Betfair post record first-half profits.
The company, which allows punters to set their own odds and bet against one another, said it had made "a very strong start" to the football season, while bets on tennis, cricket and golf also saw growth.
Revenues were also boosted by a doubling in the number of bets made from mobile phones to 16 million after it introduced an app especially for horse racing.
These trends helped underlying profits rise 36% to £42.4 million in the six months to October 31 as the company which floated on the stock market just over a year ago announced a maiden interim dividend.
Betfair said the growth of mobile gaming continued in its third quarter, with 41% of customers using a phone to place a bet in November, accounting for about 9% of its revenues.
Betting revenues through its online exchange increased 7% in the six months.
Betfair claimed its exchange continued to offer customers a better chance of winning than a traditional bookmaker even after it takes its commission. It said 28% of the punters on its exchange made an overall profit in the first half.
Its most recent profits were also boosted after it implemented price changes for a small number of customers.
The group is trialling a much faster website and plans to introduce mobile gaming to allow customers to play casino games on the move.
James Cooke, an analyst at Panmure Gordon, said the group's profits were higher than City expectations and forecast that it will make full-year bottom-line profits of £49 million, rising to £72.5 million the following year.
Copyright © 2011 The Press Associa
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Report the big bossman • December 16, 2011 12:07 AM GMT
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5gO3QMD3BogluBzaRXA22E...
Report the big bossman • December 16, 2011 12:08 AM GMT
Its most recent profits were also boosted after it implemented price changes for a small number of customers.
Report tobermory • December 16, 2011 12:45 AM GMT
28% in profit over 6 months should mean 10-15% long term i'd guess.

Will come as a shock to all those who post '0.5%' of users make a profit . Think they confuse it with a stat on the number that made £15k a year from about 2006
Report TheVis • December 16, 2011 9:48 AM GMT
would love to know how much they are making from the PC.  I bet that accounts for a large share of this upsurge in profitability.
Report apunta • December 16, 2011 10:04 AM GMT
I saw a report that 23% made a profit last year (makes sense that it is lower than in a 6 month period)

how does this compare, ie what % of customers at a bookie will make a net profit in a year? presumably much lower as they will close you down / you get worse prices?
Report Slicer • December 16, 2011 11:26 AM GMT
Absolute RUBBISH!
We all know ITCANTBEDONE unless the 28% making money are using printing presses to make it!

You cant make prophets laying at above the true odds PLUS paying commission PLUS Premium Tax.

You cant make it backing when football managers put out a reserve side and then complain when they dont get through, or hoarseracing jokies give "tender" rides to stone cold certinties. You cant make it trading cos you get caught out once in a while eliminating your prophets and more. You cant make it at dog racing when trap 5 with no form wins going clear at a price of 15.

Gambollers are often delusional. The 28% figure is a publicity stunt. Dont delude yourselves.

I don't care what is said, written or heard, ITCANTBEDONE!

I hope this clarifies the matter.
Report DivideByZeroError • December 16, 2011 11:37 AM GMT
On the other hand it's difficult for everyone to be a loser, in fact that would only happen if everyone was roughly flat before commission/PC.

For every backer there is a layer (obviously) so the money must be going somewhere, even if we were all betting completely ignorant of the true odds.

If we knew a bit more about the size (relative to total bank) and frequency of punters' bets we could do some analysis to determine if 28% being in profit over 6 months indicated that there were experts out there or if you'd get a similar result with the proverbial room full of monkeys.
Report acquiesce12 • December 16, 2011 11:39 AM GMT
I don't care what is said, written or heard, ITCANTBEDONE!

I hope this clarifies the matter.



No it doesn't clarify anything given you haven't provided any factual information regarding the true figures.

Only Betfair know what % of their punters are long term winners.
Report Slicer • December 16, 2011 11:42 AM GMT
AND it is in their interest to perpetuate the rumours that ITCANBEDONE by 28% when the reality of it is that only true PROPUNTERS, insiders and mathematical geniuses can make it worthwhile.

I hope this posting adds further clarification of the matter.
Report apunta • December 16, 2011 11:42 AM GMT
the 28% figure is stated in BF's results announcement - see page 4 here: http://corporate.betfair.com/investor-relations/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/press-releases/2011/2011-12-14.pdf


they can't make stuff up for publicity in stock exchange announcements - auditors wouldn't allow it.
Report The Magician (100) • December 16, 2011 11:42 AM GMT
The vis

PC is generating about 7-8 M a quater accoring to my various calculations and discussions
Report Slicer • December 16, 2011 11:48 AM GMT
I dont care what it says in the results announcement.

Remember the saying by that famous philosopher Aristotle Slicer: "There are lies, damn lies, statistics, form and then there are stock exchange announcements!"

I hope this enhances the understanding of all BetFairians of popularly believed myths.
Report acquiesce12 • December 16, 2011 11:50 AM GMT
AND it is in their interest to perpetuate the rumours that ITCANBEDONE by 28% when the reality of it is that only true PROPUNTERS, insiders and mathematical geniuses can make it worthwhile.

I hope this posting adds further clarification of the matter



Probably the most false post I've ever read on betfair - you don't need to be any of them things.

You don't need to be an insider, a mathematical genuis or use  trading software bots or courtsiding to be a long term winner - that is a fact.you simply need hard work and an edge - is that what you're calling a true pro punter ?I've made a living from tennis - all manuel - the average man on the street can do this.
Report DivideByZeroError • December 16, 2011 12:13 PM GMT
You don't even need to be long-term profitable to be in the 28%.

You could have made three £10 bets on the cricket over the course of six months and be up a few quid.
Report kevin7654 • December 16, 2011 1:04 PM GMT
Magician-Stephen Morana stated that the premium charge was contributing 4% of core revenue at the interim results webcast.Full year core revenue last year was £330 million or so ,which means premium charge will be around £13 million for the year.
Report i_agree_with_nick • December 16, 2011 1:52 PM GMT
Whether or not 28% is accurate, profits on Betfair may be masked by losses on other exchanges and with bookmakers resulting from trades, arbs etc
Report apunta • December 16, 2011 2:11 PM GMT
"Whether or not 28% is accurate, profits on Betfair may be masked by losses on other exchanges and with bookmakers resulting from trades, arbs etc"

or losses on Betfair may be masked by profits on other exchange etc...
Report The Magician (100) • December 16, 2011 2:12 PM GMT
kevin7654

he would obviously know more than me.... and I did not listen to the webcast

was it 4% of exchange betting of 4% of total company Rev?
was he refering to a period that had full PC operational
was he refering to the additional PC or old PC also?

not disputing it - just that 13M could be closer to my 28m est, if some of the above qualifications are not made...

maybe it is 13M or less, but that surprises me looking at the data...
Report Do wah Diddy • December 16, 2011 2:23 PM GMT
I AGREE WITH SLICER ,THERES 28% WINNERS OUT THERE ,THATS 28 OUT OF EVERY HUNDRED ,IF YOU DONT KNOW WHAT A % IS,THAT MEANS IF THEY HAVE 100000CUSTOMERS WHICH THEY HAVE MORE THATS 10000 AND I DONT KNOW EVEN ONE

  DONT BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU READ ,

GO TO GAMBLE ANNONOMOUSES AND ASK HOW MANY WINNERS THEY KNOW
Report Do wah Diddy • December 16, 2011 2:25 PM GMT
SORRY 28000 WINNERS NOT 10000 WINNERS ,I PUT THE WRONG FIGURE BECAUSE IM GETTING MY MAD UP
Report Slicer • December 16, 2011 2:39 PM GMT
Mr Diddy makes sense.
Thank you, as always, for your valued second opinion.
Report RonaldinhoRAT • December 16, 2011 2:55 PM GMT
28%!! any Tom **** or Harry, thought i was special.

Active customers down 79,000 from 579,000 to 500,000 caught my eye thought it would still be growing.
Report abolo • December 16, 2011 3:00 PM GMT
Slicer, i think you are mistaking "making a profit" with "making enough profit to support a family" . Any punter/trader with a brain working and more importantly enough experience can make a small profit over a year, it doesn't mean it's enough money to live on that and that he doesn't need a job. Therefore, 28% is nothing surprising, it should even be closer of 50% if there was less punters betting anyhow but that's because their lack of experience.
Report Slicer • December 16, 2011 3:14 PM GMT
You are partially correct. Anyone can make a prophet, but the secret is keeping it and maintaining and continuing to make prophets over the long term.

Anyway, logging off now- time for tiffin having made my £2 prophet for the month.
Report abolo • December 16, 2011 3:17 PM GMT
Very good, if you keep this rythm over a year, you can buy a beautiful £12 cake for Christmas
Report abolo • December 16, 2011 3:18 PM GMT
£24 , more precisely, i have issues with mathematics
Report TheManIsAGent • December 16, 2011 3:19 PM GMT
I only joined for the diary - think my postie must have nicked it though Cry
Report Eddie the eagle • December 16, 2011 3:25 PM GMT
kevin and magician, yes it will depend on what he said or meant. It looks like PC will give Betfair something between £ 13 - 28 million the first year with PC3.
  I'm guessing 28 millions will be closer to the truth,especially after seeing this in the report :

   Non-risk sports revenue, which is predominantly commission generated on the Exchange, increased by 9% in the period to £124.2m and performed well in both quarters. In Q1, non-risk revenue was flat despite the World Cup in the prior year and was up 20% in Q2. [b]Growth in the second quarter included the impact of targeted pricing changes,[/b] a good start to the football season and continued strong growth in other sports, particularly tennis, cricket and golf.

The part in bold is highlighted by me.
Report askari1 • December 16, 2011 3:27 PM GMT
There is an enormous difference w/ respect to the company's overall health and growth between its making roughly 4.25 mill. a quarter from pc and its making 8 million.

Were the second the case, all of its growth and a bit more (16 million out of growth of about 12 million) wd come from the charge, meaning that bf's exchange model w/out significant modification and had reached maximum headroom and was indeed losing users to dissatisfaction and churn.

If this is true (and I have no idea) then the pc comes over as a desperate measure put in place b/c the company has otherwise gone ex-growth in its core business. This is hardly a proposition to put before investors.

If I were an analyst or investor, I wd be pushing bf for an utterly clear explanation of the contribution made to profit growth by non-commission charges.
Report Eddie the eagle • December 16, 2011 3:31 PM GMT
askari, PC3 has only been in place full for the last financial quarter, and two weeks of the first quarter.
Report Eddie the eagle • December 16, 2011 3:34 PM GMT
May actually only be one week of the first quarter.
  You also have to take into consideration that they did make money from PC before July 18th too.
Report askari1 • December 16, 2011 3:42 PM GMT
Eddie, OK, but that wd still account for all the growth if we take pc as bringing in 16 mill. per half-year.

If growing sports like football and tennis are making a contribution to profit growth, then turnover on horses, their core market, wd appear to be declining.

Is this plausible? What contribution does pc make to bottom-line profits? Is it in the order of 20-25%?
Report askari1 • December 16, 2011 3:46 PM GMT
I agree that I'm in the dark not knowing what %age of profits come from pc1 & 2 i.e. before the massive clawback from big historic winners.

W/ the decline in active bettors, I can still believe they have gone ex-growth in pre-IR UK horses.

The implication is the customer proposition of better prices doesn't work; its benefit is captured by third parties up to the point where company intervention in terms of a different pricing system discourages participation entirely.
Report Eddie the eagle • December 16, 2011 3:58 PM GMT
[i]Horse racing revenue also increased in the period (up 5% year on year), driven primarily by growth in international racing as well as product improvements, such as our mobile racing app. We have invested in content such as the new ‘Donald McCain Zone’ to complement our existing racing ambassador, Paul Nicholls and will shortly be launching a new TV based marketing campaign to promote our racing product.[/i]

It looks like no growth in UK horse racing, maybe even a small decline.
Report yeahyeahwhatever • December 16, 2011 4:22 PM GMT
re: they can't make stuff up for publicity in stock exchange announcements - auditors wouldn't allow it.

The would if they were EU auditors...
Report TheManIsAGent • December 16, 2011 4:25 PM GMT
apunta     16 Dec 11 11:42 
they can't make stuff up for publicity in stock exchange announcements - auditors wouldn't allow it.


How naive are you? Auditors, actuaries, accountants, they all make things up - it is a requirement of the job.
Report askari1 • December 16, 2011 4:57 PM GMT
Eddie, that's how I see it, and their answer is a 'Donald McCain zone'--a skilful, personable, up-and-coming trainer, though I'm sure they asked bigger names first...

They can't see the probs. w/ a model that (excepting IR) relies on people failing to discriminate w/ regards to price i.e. meaning on average that traders are advantaged over small bettors. They think they can get by by bleeding the successful traders, w/out regard for the consequences of this on the price price-taking punters end up getting.
Report TheManIsAGent • December 16, 2011 5:06 PM GMT
Too many accountants = no strategy, no vision, no imagination = stagnation, followed by decline.

^ This is a tried and tested formula, it never fails.
Report Coachbuster • December 16, 2011 5:17 PM GMT
I thought most of you guys had a Public school  education / degrees in Human Anthropology ?  Shocked

It's OBVIOUS why 28% make a profit - do i really need to spell it out ?
Report TheManIsAGent • December 16, 2011 5:21 PM GMT
I can think of about 5 good reasons - surprised it is only 28% to be honest.
Report TheManIsAGent • December 16, 2011 5:32 PM GMT
For starters...........

1) all the bonus wh0res that BF have thrown £30 each at (before they disappear never to be seen again)
2) any (now) dormant account that (when active) played in an Oz market - got credited £2.43 because the Oz regulators have a spine and unlike their cousins in the UK, they don't like to see their citizens robbed

I would imagine those two factors alone would make up a very considerable % of "profitable" accounts.
Report catflappo • December 16, 2011 5:36 PM GMT
2) would only make profitable accounts whose lifetime p/l was in between -2.42 and 0.  Not that many, I would guess.
Report kevin7654 • December 16, 2011 5:37 PM GMT
Magician-I am afraid the figure quoted was as I said (4% of core revenue) with no parameters given for how this figure is made up and over what period it was taken from.I admit I thought £13 million would be on the low side.
On a completely different thought-is there any mileage in a social network promoting a betting exchange as part of its portfolio do you think?
I know America and other markets might be outside present regulations but these might change in the future and think of how many users at a stroke would be enabled into the exchange.Maybe the thought is ten years too early but can see it happening one day.
Report acquiesce12 • December 16, 2011 5:37 PM GMT
bonus ****s Laugh

I would like to see figures such as the % of people who have a 5 figure lifetime profit +, less misleading.
Report Coachbuster • December 16, 2011 5:39 PM GMT
TheManIsAGent     16 Dec 11 17:32 
For starters...........

1) all the bonus wh0res that BF have thrown £30 each at (before they disappear never to be seen again)
_______________

Thank you  Happy
Report Coachbuster • December 16, 2011 5:40 PM GMT
...and there is your answer .


It's a great advertising point (or maybe not )  depending on your point of view  Grin
Report TheManIsAGent • December 16, 2011 5:41 PM GMT
Cat - It said 28% of the punters on its exchange made an overall profit in the first half.
Report TheManIsAGent • December 16, 2011 5:43 PM GMT
These statements are always just smoke and mirrors - the lack of depth and the lack of any definitions make it impossible to actually ascertain any facts.
Report catflappo • December 16, 2011 7:15 PM GMT
Oh I see, you think the figures include dormant accounts?
Report ZEALOT • December 16, 2011 10:16 PM GMT
who givz a fyk ?
Report jabmast • December 17, 2011 12:19 AM GMT
Magician, even your 28m figure feels low to me. I wouldn't be surprised if the figure was 40m plus.
Report TheManIsAGent • December 17, 2011 11:41 AM GMT
Cat - given their definition of "active" - yes. I would imagine that they have included many accounts that are  technically dormant accounts in the 28% figure.

Re - the bonus hunters - I assume you are aware that you can lay on BF? (just about their only remaining USP) -

Are you not concerned that for every sign up offer that any other firm advertises (there are 100's of them) there is a good chance that it is subsidised by BF (or more accurately subsidised by existing BF customers - via commission and charges), when the bonus hunter offsets their free bet by laying it back with their free bet on here?

So we have a site that permits laying, with a sign up bonus as its most imaginative strategy for growth, against a backdrop where every one of its competitors offers a free bet as a sign-up bonus. BF must be responsible for pretty much all of its competitors growth. It is comedy gold.
Report TheManIsAGent • December 17, 2011 11:48 AM GMT
The funniest bit being that you don't seem to mind paying for it.
Report Coachbuster • December 17, 2011 12:18 PM GMT
I rarely speculate on here ,but i see the whole figures like this .... feel free to add your own disagree /agree .
I have used the all time figure of 3 million from various sources including wiki -ansd ahve used the now famous 2004 0.71% figure as a guideline. Grin

Here goes.



Betfair - all time customers - 3 million (of which )

1m - Hit and run bonus baggers
1m - Bonus used ,lost and returned infrequently
1m-  Bonus used and continued for a while ,most dropping out over the last few years.

Active accounts 2011 (including new accounts opened in 2011)
400,000  (?)
Bonus baggers -50,000 (outright)
Bonus and continued to varying extent -100,000
Existing active  customers - 250,000

Total for 2011 -  450,000

of which were winners
28% - 126,000 (100,000 of which were baggers -OR new players still with a positive profit in their account/some almost dormant)


Existing active  customers - 250,000
26,000 other winners

19,000 borderline winners (players winning status may vary year to year )
5,000  in profit between 2k-15k
1,000  in profit between 15 - 30k
1,000  in profit over 30k
Report Coachbuster • December 17, 2011 12:20 PM GMT
Bonus and continued to varying extent -100,000 -


should read 150,000
Report Coachbuster • December 17, 2011 12:22 PM GMT
i may be way out ,but i'm guessing the turnover for a gaming site is huge with a high drop out rate
Report chrisblues • December 17, 2011 12:36 PM GMT
any newbie  can double their money when they 1st join by getting free 25  and therefore in profitGrin
Report TheManIsAGent • December 17, 2011 12:40 PM GMT
Well spotted Chris Cry
Report Coachbuster • December 17, 2011 12:45 PM GMT
28% make a profit and less than 1% make a living wage -


a bit like working for the government really Grin
Report TheManIsAGent • December 17, 2011 12:51 PM GMT
Coach - do you remember the "free money" fiasco from one of the penny pinching websites on that First Goalscorer market?

I wonder how many of those new accounts are still active. Laugh
Report Coachbuster • December 17, 2011 1:03 PM GMT
TheManIsAGent - They got compensated for that too if i remember rightly -  a funny thread at the time ,that market has been changed too Happy
Report TheManIsAGent • December 17, 2011 1:07 PM GMT
Yes - remarkably, I think they got their money back.

Major meltdown on their forum when it dawned on them. Probably sticking to cutting coupons out of newspapers now imo.
Report askari1 • December 17, 2011 4:01 PM GMT
Can there be so many people betting just once to get the bonus?

I'm not sure, either, that so many people understand the mechanics of backing with a bookie and laying off on here. When I've tried to explain it to my mother, she said 'you bought at 8 at the bookmaker and sold at 7 on the exchange, you've made a loss'. Even when I tried to explain it to her in terms of percentage chances she didn't understand.

Bf's prob. is that their losers tend to be small and a significant no. of their winners are big. (Rather this becomes a prob. when they winners win too often). To get the losers betting in larger denominations, they have to win more often--but this imposes a smaller margin on the operator in terms of the comm. structure they put in place.

Of course transations shd have been priced from the outset so that if you're losing historically, you pay less comm. There cd have been some compensation for providing volume inside of that.
Report Coachbuster • December 17, 2011 4:16 PM GMT
1 million seems a lot askari , but some of these will be from a non betting background- simply signed on my mates and all over the world too.

Do you remember the 'sign a mate' cards that BF used to send in the post and the potential paybacks?
Report TheManIsAGent • December 17, 2011 4:39 PM GMT
askari1     17 Dec 11 16:01 
Can there be so many people betting just once to get the bonus?
I'm not sure, either, that so many people understand the mechanics of backing with a bookie and laying off on here.

There are dozens of websites and blogs that advocate this and they also provide full guidance on the mechanics.

No doubt some will get caught up in it and go on to give back their "free money" and some more (which I would imagine is the idea) - but does it cost in? Personally I very much doubt it. As I said earlier, imo BF (due to the sites laying capability) will almost always be part of the equation for the free money merchants, so are funding growth for their competitors. Sharp minds.
Report TheInvestor2 • December 17, 2011 8:37 PM GMT
TheManIsAGent
Date Joined: 15 Dec 11
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Cat - given their definition of "active" - yes. I would imagine that they have included many accounts that are  technically dormant accounts in the 28% figure.

Re - the bonus hunters - I assume you are aware that you can lay on BF? (just about their only remaining USP) -

Are you not concerned that for every sign up offer that any other firm advertises (there are 100's of them) there is a good chance that it is subsidised by BF (or more accurately subsidised by existing BF customers - via commission and charges), when the bonus hunter offsets their free bet by laying it back with their free bet on here?

So we have a site that permits laying, with a sign up bonus as its most imaginative strategy for growth, against a backdrop where every one of its competitors offers a free bet as a sign-up bonus. BF must be responsible for pretty much all of its competitors growth. It is comedy gold.


We're only subsidising people that get free bets on Betfair, not with any other bookie.

The people laying off on here will probably be losers as a group (on betfair) as they will be paying the spread.
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