28% in profit over 6 months should mean 10-15% long term i'd guess.
Will come as a shock to all those who post '0.5%' of users make a profit . Think they confuse it with a stat on the number that made £15k a year from about 2006
28% in profit over 6 months should mean 10-15% long term i'd guess.Will come as a shock to all those who post '0.5%' of users make a profit . Think they confuse it with a stat on the number that made £15k a year from about 2006
I saw a report that 23% made a profit last year (makes sense that it is lower than in a 6 month period)
how does this compare, ie what % of customers at a bookie will make a net profit in a year? presumably much lower as they will close you down / you get worse prices?
I saw a report that 23% made a profit last year (makes sense that it is lower than in a 6 month period)how does this compare, ie what % of customers at a bookie will make a net profit in a year? presumably much lower as they will close you down / you
Absolute RUBBISH! We all know ITCANTBEDONE unless the 28% making money are using printing presses to make it!
You cant make prophets laying at above the true odds PLUS paying commission PLUS Premium Tax.
You cant make it backing when football managers put out a reserve side and then complain when they dont get through, or hoarseracing jokies give "tender" rides to stone cold certinties. You cant make it trading cos you get caught out once in a while eliminating your prophets and more. You cant make it at dog racing when trap 5 with no form wins going clear at a price of 15.
Gambollers are often delusional. The 28% figure is a publicity stunt. Dont delude yourselves.
I don't care what is said, written or heard, ITCANTBEDONE!
I hope this clarifies the matter.
Absolute RUBBISH!We all know ITCANTBEDONE unless the 28% making money are using printing presses to make it!You cant make prophets laying at above the true odds PLUS paying commission PLUS Premium Tax.You cant make it backing when football managers p
On the other hand it's difficult for everyone to be a loser, in fact that would only happen if everyone was roughly flat before commission/PC.
For every backer there is a layer (obviously) so the money must be going somewhere, even if we were all betting completely ignorant of the true odds.
If we knew a bit more about the size (relative to total bank) and frequency of punters' bets we could do some analysis to determine if 28% being in profit over 6 months indicated that there were experts out there or if you'd get a similar result with the proverbial room full of monkeys.
On the other hand it's difficult for everyone to be a loser, in fact that would only happen if everyone was roughly flat before commission/PC.For every backer there is a layer (obviously) so the money must be going somewhere, even if we were all bett
I don't care what is said, written or heard, ITCANTBEDONE!
I hope this clarifies the matter.
No it doesn't clarify anything given you haven't provided any factual information regarding the true figures.
Only Betfair know what % of their punters are long term winners.
I don't care what is said, written or heard, ITCANTBEDONE! I hope this clarifies the matter.No it doesn't clarify anything given you haven't provided any factual information regarding the true figures.Only Betfair know what % of their punters are lon
AND it is in their interest to perpetuate the rumours that ITCANBEDONE by 28% when the reality of it is that only true PROPUNTERS, insiders and mathematical geniuses can make it worthwhile.
I hope this posting adds further clarification of the matter.
AND it is in their interest to perpetuate the rumours that ITCANBEDONE by 28% when the reality of it is that only true PROPUNTERS, insiders and mathematical geniuses can make it worthwhile.I hope this posting adds further clarification of the matter.
the 28% figure is stated in BF's results announcement - see page 4 here: http://corporate.betfair.com/investor-relations/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/press-releases/2011/2011-12-14.pdf
they can't make stuff up for publicity in stock exchange announcements - auditors wouldn't allow it.
the 28% figure is stated in BF's results announcement - see page 4 here: http://corporate.betfair.com/investor-relations/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/press-releases/2011/2011-12-14.pdfthey can't make stuff up for publicity in stock exchange announcements
I dont care what it says in the results announcement.
Remember the saying by that famous philosopher Aristotle Slicer: "There are lies, damn lies, statistics, form and then there are stock exchange announcements!"
I hope this enhances the understanding of all BetFairians of popularly believed myths.
I dont care what it says in the results announcement.Remember the saying by that famous philosopher Aristotle Slicer: "There are lies, damn lies, statistics, form and then there are stock exchange announcements!"I hope this enhances the understanding
AND it is in their interest to perpetuate the rumours that ITCANBEDONE by 28% when the reality of it is that only true PROPUNTERS, insiders and mathematical geniuses can make it worthwhile.
I hope this posting adds further clarification of the matter
Probably the most false post I've ever read on betfair - you don't need to be any of them things.
You don't need to be an insider, a mathematical genuis or use trading software bots or courtsiding to be a long term winner - that is a fact.you simply need hard work and an edge - is that what you're calling a true pro punter ?I've made a living from tennis - all manuel - the average man on the street can do this.
AND it is in their interest to perpetuate the rumours that ITCANBEDONE by 28% when the reality of it is that only true PROPUNTERS, insiders and mathematical geniuses can make it worthwhile.I hope this posting adds further clarification of the matterP
You don't even need to be long-term profitable to be in the 28%.
You could have made three £10 bets on the cricket over the course of six months and be up a few quid.
You don't even need to be long-term profitable to be in the 28%.You could have made three £10 bets on the cricket over the course of six months and be up a few quid.
Magician-Stephen Morana stated that the premium charge was contributing 4% of core revenue at the interim results webcast.Full year core revenue last year was £330 million or so ,which means premium charge will be around £13 million for the year.
Magician-Stephen Morana stated that the premium charge was contributing 4% of core revenue at the interim results webcast.Full year core revenue last year was £330 million or so ,which means premium charge will be around £13 million for the year.
"Whether or not 28% is accurate, profits on Betfair may be masked by losses on other exchanges and with bookmakers resulting from trades, arbs etc"
or losses on Betfair may be masked by profits on other exchange etc...
"Whether or not 28% is accurate, profits on Betfair may be masked by losses on other exchanges and with bookmakers resulting from trades, arbs etc"or losses on Betfair may be masked by profits on other exchange etc...
he would obviously know more than me.... and I did not listen to the webcast
was it 4% of exchange betting of 4% of total company Rev? was he refering to a period that had full PC operational was he refering to the additional PC or old PC also?
not disputing it - just that 13M could be closer to my 28m est, if some of the above qualifications are not made...
maybe it is 13M or less, but that surprises me looking at the data...
kevin7654he would obviously know more than me.... and I did not listen to the webcastwas it 4% of exchange betting of 4% of total company Rev?was he refering to a period that had full PC operationalwas he refering to the additional PC or old PC also?
I AGREE WITH SLICER ,THERES 28% WINNERS OUT THERE ,THATS 28 OUT OF EVERY HUNDRED ,IF YOU DONT KNOW WHAT A % IS,THAT MEANS IF THEY HAVE 100000CUSTOMERS WHICH THEY HAVE MORE THATS 10000 AND I DONT KNOW EVEN ONE
DONT BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU READ ,
GO TO GAMBLE ANNONOMOUSES AND ASK HOW MANY WINNERS THEY KNOW
I AGREE WITH SLICER ,THERES 28% WINNERS OUT THERE ,THATS 28 OUT OF EVERY HUNDRED ,IF YOU DONT KNOW WHAT A % IS,THAT MEANS IF THEY HAVE 100000CUSTOMERS WHICH THEY HAVE MORE THATS 10000 AND I DONT KNOW EVEN ONE DONT BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU READ , GO T
28%!! any Tom **** or Harry, thought i was special.
Active customers down 79,000 from 579,000 to 500,000 caught my eye thought it would still be growing.
28%!! any Tom **** or Harry, thought i was special.Active customers down 79,000 from 579,000 to 500,000 caught my eye thought it would still be growing.
Slicer, i think you are mistaking "making a profit" with "making enough profit to support a family" . Any punter/trader with a brain working and more importantly enough experience can make a small profit over a year, it doesn't mean it's enough money to live on that and that he doesn't need a job. Therefore, 28% is nothing surprising, it should even be closer of 50% if there was less punters betting anyhow but that's because their lack of experience.
Slicer, i think you are mistaking "making a profit" with "making enough profit to support a family" . Any punter/trader with a brain working and more importantly enough experience can make a small profit over a year, it doesn't mean it's enough money
You are partially correct. Anyone can make a prophet, but the secret is keeping it and maintaining and continuing to make prophets over the long term.
Anyway, logging off now- time for tiffin having made my £2 prophet for the month.
You are partially correct. Anyone can make a prophet, but the secret is keeping it and maintaining and continuing to make prophets over the long term.Anyway, logging off now- time for tiffin having made my £2 prophet for the month.
kevin and magician, yes it will depend on what he said or meant. It looks like PC will give Betfair something between £ 13 - 28 million the first year with PC3. I'm guessing 28 millions will be closer to the truth,especially after seeing this in the report :
Non-risk sports revenue, which is predominantly commission generated on the Exchange, increased by 9% in the period to £124.2m and performed well in both quarters. In Q1, non-risk revenue was flat despite the World Cup in the prior year and was up 20% in Q2. [b]Growth in the second quarter included the impact of targeted pricing changes,[/b] a good start to the football season and continued strong growth in other sports, particularly tennis, cricket and golf.
The part in bold is highlighted by me.
kevin and magician, yes it will depend on what he said or meant. It looks like PC will give Betfair something between £ 13 - 28 million the first year with PC3. I'm guessing 28 millions will be closer to the truth,especially after seeing this in th
There is an enormous difference w/ respect to the company's overall health and growth between its making roughly 4.25 mill. a quarter from pc and its making 8 million.
Were the second the case, all of its growth and a bit more (16 million out of growth of about 12 million) wd come from the charge, meaning that bf's exchange model w/out significant modification and had reached maximum headroom and was indeed losing users to dissatisfaction and churn.
If this is true (and I have no idea) then the pc comes over as a desperate measure put in place b/c the company has otherwise gone ex-growth in its core business. This is hardly a proposition to put before investors.
If I were an analyst or investor, I wd be pushing bf for an utterly clear explanation of the contribution made to profit growth by non-commission charges.
There is an enormous difference w/ respect to the company's overall health and growth between its making roughly 4.25 mill. a quarter from pc and its making 8 million.Were the second the case, all of its growth and a bit more (16 million out of growt
Eddie, OK, but that wd still account for all the growth if we take pc as bringing in 16 mill. per half-year.
If growing sports like football and tennis are making a contribution to profit growth, then turnover on horses, their core market, wd appear to be declining.
Is this plausible? What contribution does pc make to bottom-line profits? Is it in the order of 20-25%?
Eddie, OK, but that wd still account for all the growth if we take pc as bringing in 16 mill. per half-year.If growing sports like football and tennis are making a contribution to profit growth, then turnover on horses, their core market, wd appear t
I agree that I'm in the dark not knowing what %age of profits come from pc1 & 2 i.e. before the massive clawback from big historic winners.
W/ the decline in active bettors, I can still believe they have gone ex-growth in pre-IR UK horses.
The implication is the customer proposition of better prices doesn't work; its benefit is captured by third parties up to the point where company intervention in terms of a different pricing system discourages participation entirely.
I agree that I'm in the dark not knowing what %age of profits come from pc1 & 2 i.e. before the massive clawback from big historic winners.W/ the decline in active bettors, I can still believe they have gone ex-growth in pre-IR UK horses.The implicat
[i]Horse racing revenue also increased in the period (up 5% year on year), driven primarily by growth in international racing as well as product improvements, such as our mobile racing app. We have invested in content such as the new ‘Donald McCain Zone’ to complement our existing racing ambassador, Paul Nicholls and will shortly be launching a new TV based marketing campaign to promote our racing product.[/i]
It looks like no growth in UK horse racing, maybe even a small decline.
[i]Horse racing revenue also increased in the period (up 5% year on year), driven primarily by growth in international racing as well as product improvements, such as our mobile racing app. We have invested in content such as the new ‘Donald McCain
apunta 16 Dec 11 11:42 they can't make stuff up for publicity in stock exchange announcements - auditors wouldn't allow it.
How naive are you? Auditors, actuaries, accountants, they all make things up - it is a requirement of the job.
apunta 16 Dec 11 11:42 they can't make stuff up for publicity in stock exchange announcements - auditors wouldn't allow it.How naive are you? Auditors, actuaries, accountants, they all make things up - it is a requirement of the job.
Eddie, that's how I see it, and their answer is a 'Donald McCain zone'--a skilful, personable, up-and-coming trainer, though I'm sure they asked bigger names first...
They can't see the probs. w/ a model that (excepting IR) relies on people failing to discriminate w/ regards to price i.e. meaning on average that traders are advantaged over small bettors. They think they can get by by bleeding the successful traders, w/out regard for the consequences of this on the price price-taking punters end up getting.
Eddie, that's how I see it, and their answer is a 'Donald McCain zone'--a skilful, personable, up-and-coming trainer, though I'm sure they asked bigger names first...They can't see the probs. w/ a model that (excepting IR) relies on people failing to
I thought most of you guys had a Public school education / degrees in Human Anthropology ?
It's OBVIOUS why 28% make a profit - do i really need to spell it out ?
I thought most of you guys had a Public school education / degrees in Human Anthropology ? It's OBVIOUS why 28% make a profit - do i really need to spell it out ?
1) all the bonus wh0res that BF have thrown £30 each at (before they disappear never to be seen again) 2) any (now) dormant account that (when active) played in an Oz market - got credited £2.43 because the Oz regulators have a spine and unlike their cousins in the UK, they don't like to see their citizens robbed
I would imagine those two factors alone would make up a very considerable % of "profitable" accounts.
For starters...........1) all the bonus wh0res that BF have thrown £30 each at (before they disappear never to be seen again) 2) any (now) dormant account that (when active) played in an Oz market - got credited £2.43 because the Oz regulators have
Magician-I am afraid the figure quoted was as I said (4% of core revenue) with no parameters given for how this figure is made up and over what period it was taken from.I admit I thought £13 million would be on the low side. On a completely different thought-is there any mileage in a social network promoting a betting exchange as part of its portfolio do you think? I know America and other markets might be outside present regulations but these might change in the future and think of how many users at a stroke would be enabled into the exchange.Maybe the thought is ten years too early but can see it happening one day.
Magician-I am afraid the figure quoted was as I said (4% of core revenue) with no parameters given for how this figure is made up and over what period it was taken from.I admit I thought £13 million would be on the low side.On a completely different
TheManIsAGent 16 Dec 11 17:32 For starters...........
1) all the bonus wh0res that BF have thrown £30 each at (before they disappear never to be seen again) _______________
Thank you
TheManIsAGent 16 Dec 11 17:32 For starters...........1) all the bonus wh0res that BF have thrown £30 each at (before they disappear never to be seen again) _______________Thank you
These statements are always just smoke and mirrors - the lack of depth and the lack of any definitions make it impossible to actually ascertain any facts.
These statements are always just smoke and mirrors - the lack of depth and the lack of any definitions make it impossible to actually ascertain any facts.
Cat - given their definition of "active" - yes. I would imagine that they have included many accounts that are technically dormant accounts in the 28% figure.
Re - the bonus hunters - I assume you are aware that you can lay on BF? (just about their only remaining USP) -
Are you not concerned that for every sign up offer that any other firm advertises (there are 100's of them) there is a good chance that it is subsidised by BF (or more accurately subsidised by existing BF customers - via commission and charges), when the bonus hunter offsets their free bet by laying it back with their free bet on here?
So we have a site that permits laying, with a sign up bonus as its most imaginative strategy for growth, against a backdrop where every one of its competitors offers a free bet as a sign-up bonus. BF must be responsible for pretty much all of its competitors growth. It is comedy gold.
Cat - given their definition of "active" - yes. I would imagine that they have included many accounts that are technically dormant accounts in the 28% figure. Re - the bonus hunters - I assume you are aware that you can lay on BF? (just about their
I rarely speculate on here ,but i see the whole figures like this .... feel free to add your own disagree /agree . I have used the all time figure of 3 million from various sources including wiki -ansd ahve used the now famous 2004 0.71% figure as a guideline.
Here goes.
Betfair - all time customers - 3 million (of which )
1m - Hit and run bonus baggers 1m - Bonus used ,lost and returned infrequently 1m- Bonus used and continued for a while ,most dropping out over the last few years.
Active accounts 2011 (including new accounts opened in 2011) 400,000 (?) Bonus baggers -50,000 (outright) Bonus and continued to varying extent -100,000 Existing active customers - 250,000
Total for 2011 - 450,000
of which were winners 28% - 126,000 (100,000 of which were baggers -OR new players still with a positive profit in their account/some almost dormant)
Existing active customers - 250,000 26,000 other winners
19,000 borderline winners (players winning status may vary year to year ) 5,000 in profit between 2k-15k 1,000 in profit between 15 - 30k 1,000 in profit over 30k
I rarely speculate on here ,but i see the whole figures like this .... feel free to add your own disagree /agree . I have used the all time figure of 3 million from various sources including wiki -ansd ahve used the now famous 2004 0.71% figure as a
Coach - do you remember the "free money" fiasco from one of the penny pinching websites on that First Goalscorer market?
I wonder how many of those new accounts are still active.
Coach - do you remember the "free money" fiasco from one of the penny pinching websites on that First Goalscorer market?I wonder how many of those new accounts are still active.
Yes - remarkably, I think they got their money back.
Major meltdown on their forum when it dawned on them. Probably sticking to cutting coupons out of newspapers now imo.
Yes - remarkably, I think they got their money back. Major meltdown on their forum when it dawned on them. Probably sticking to cutting coupons out of newspapers now imo.
Can there be so many people betting just once to get the bonus?
I'm not sure, either, that so many people understand the mechanics of backing with a bookie and laying off on here. When I've tried to explain it to my mother, she said 'you bought at 8 at the bookmaker and sold at 7 on the exchange, you've made a loss'. Even when I tried to explain it to her in terms of percentage chances she didn't understand.
Bf's prob. is that their losers tend to be small and a significant no. of their winners are big. (Rather this becomes a prob. when they winners win too often). To get the losers betting in larger denominations, they have to win more often--but this imposes a smaller margin on the operator in terms of the comm. structure they put in place.
Of course transations shd have been priced from the outset so that if you're losing historically, you pay less comm. There cd have been some compensation for providing volume inside of that.
Can there be so many people betting just once to get the bonus? I'm not sure, either, that so many people understand the mechanics of backing with a bookie and laying off on here. When I've tried to explain it to my mother, she said 'you bought at 8
1 million seems a lot askari , but some of these will be from a non betting background- simply signed on my mates and all over the world too.
Do you remember the 'sign a mate' cards that BF used to send in the post and the potential paybacks?
1 million seems a lot askari , but some of these will be from a non betting background- simply signed on my mates and all over the world too.Do you remember the 'sign a mate' cards that BF used to send in the post and the potential paybacks?
askari1 17 Dec 11 16:01 Can there be so many people betting just once to get the bonus? I'm not sure, either, that so many people understand the mechanics of backing with a bookie and laying off on here. There are dozens of websites and blogs that advocate this and they also provide full guidance on the mechanics.
No doubt some will get caught up in it and go on to give back their "free money" and some more (which I would imagine is the idea) - but does it cost in? Personally I very much doubt it. As I said earlier, imo BF (due to the sites laying capability) will almost always be part of the equation for the free money merchants, so are funding growth for their competitors. Sharp minds.
askari1 17 Dec 11 16:01 Can there be so many people betting just once to get the bonus? I'm not sure, either, that so many people understand the mechanics of backing with a bookie and laying off on here.There are dozens of websites and blogs tha
TheManIsAGent Date Joined: 15 Dec 11 Add contact | Send message When: 17 Dec 11 11:41 Joined: Date Joined: 15 Dec 11 | Topic/replies: 26 | Blogger: TheManIsAGent's blog Cat - given their definition of "active" - yes. I would imagine that they have included many accounts that are technically dormant accounts in the 28% figure.
Re - the bonus hunters - I assume you are aware that you can lay on BF? (just about their only remaining USP) -
Are you not concerned that for every sign up offer that any other firm advertises (there are 100's of them) there is a good chance that it is subsidised by BF (or more accurately subsidised by existing BF customers - via commission and charges), when the bonus hunter offsets their free bet by laying it back with their free bet on here?
So we have a site that permits laying, with a sign up bonus as its most imaginative strategy for growth, against a backdrop where every one of its competitors offers a free bet as a sign-up bonus. BF must be responsible for pretty much all of its competitors growth. It is comedy gold.
We're only subsidising people that get free bets on Betfair, not with any other bookie.
The people laying off on here will probably be losers as a group (on betfair) as they will be paying the spread.
TheManIsAGentDate Joined: 15 Dec 11Add contact | Send messageWhen: 17 Dec 11 11:41Joined:Date Joined: 15 Dec 11| Topic/replies: 26 | Blogger: TheManIsAGent's blogCat - given their definition of "active" - yes. I would imagine that they have included