General Betting
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Was just wondering what peoples thoughts were on going with instinct or gut feeling. I do not mean picking a horse because you like its colours or name, but recognising that little feeling you get that says this will happen and actually being able to act on it. This seems to be my biggest problem with gambling atm.
Two examples the other week I saw a horse called fox appeal and something told me to put a tenner on it, i talked myself out of it and it won at 44/1. Then yesterday i had money on man city to win and a £50 free bet on bet365, when man city took the lead i text my mate saying I was going to put the £50 on chelsea to win at 7/1 and then just sit back and watch the game, except I didnt at the last minute I put it on Man city to score next and we all know the final score. So thats a decent sum of money I have missed out of because i triedto apply logic when i had a gut feeling.
I was just wondering if others go with instinct or are against it and particularly interested in hearing from those with a specific edge and set of ruls if they ever follow gut instinct.
Look foward to any replies
Two examples the other week I saw a horse called fox appeal and something told me to put a tenner on it, i talked myself out of it and it won at 44/1. Then yesterday i had money on man city to win and a £50 free bet on bet365, when man city took the lead i text my mate saying I was going to put the £50 on chelsea to win at 7/1 and then just sit back and watch the game, except I didnt at the last minute I put it on Man city to score next and we all know the final score. So thats a decent sum of money I have missed out of because i triedto apply logic when i had a gut feeling.
I was just wondering if others go with instinct or are against it and particularly interested in hearing from those with a specific edge and set of ruls if they ever follow gut instinct.
Look foward to any replies
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Instinct can win or lose you money - it's about how good your instincts are, that's the difference.
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I would agee with that, mine seem pretty good the problem is I try to apply logic and therefore end up not acting on that gut feeling. Something I am going to work on, logic has its place but If i get that gut feeling from now on, im going to have to act on it, not doing so has meant I missed out on a small fortune recently.
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What you refer to is called 'thin slicing'. It's where your memory instantly recollects similar scenarios that you've faced before and allows you to build a picture of what'll happen next quickly without huge amounts of analysis. Personally, I believe it only goes so far and detailed research is a much better way of making decisions, but if you want to learn more read the book 'Blink' by Malcolm Gladwell - it'll give you a different perspective.
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Excellent response Marky Sparky, I certainly agree that detailed research is better and I will always use that, but the small amount of times I do get that gut feeling I am going to try and act upon it.
I actually have that book , I dug it up after kicking myself for not putting the free bet on Chelsea. Going to read it over the next couple days and hopefully it will help me recognise the benefit of thinking without thinking as its called.Another book I guess applies to this is the black swan theory, which is about randomness and the unexpected. Good read. Like all knowledge though its all good knowing and understanding it but it needs to be applied |
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If you had put your money on Chelsea and it was Man City who were next to score, given that you had considered both wagers, I'm sure you'd be on here saying that your gut feel was for City to score next.
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Not at all, Im mot claiming every gut feeling I have is correct but more often than not they are and last night I was texting a mate who also bet on the game and said im going to put the £50 free bet on chelsea (I had a feeling that was the correct thing to do) and I didnt, hence coming on here and asking for peoples views
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Gut feeling + the best prices, maybe.
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You would have to analyse it over a longer period of time . Gut instinct being right v gut instinct being wrong.
Personally I would always try and keep to my logic as I have seen my gut instinct be wrong. For example / I've researched a game and backed home teams I feel very confident will win , then watched the first 20 mins as the away team dominates without scoring . My gut instinct tells me that I've got this one wrong and its just a matter of time before the away team will score , but my logic and research tells me I still have the better team so I stick with it and more often than not my logic proves right as the home team get better and win. I guess what i'm trying to say is that if I went with gut instinct more than logic I would probably lose more. But this is just my opinion. |
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The problem arises when your gut instinct goes against what your head is telling you.
Which to listen to then ? Sod's law then invariably comes into play. |
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I think what you describe is basically superstitious nonsense, sorry to be blunt :) no offence.
Your gut instinct on the 44/1 horse because "something told you" will not make you money. Jamieboy is correct IMO, you are remembering the potentially good gut feeling results and forgetting the bad ones. Keep an accurate record and you'll see in black and white that you won't profit from gut feelings. ... and particularly interested in hearing from those with a specific edge and set of ruls if they ever follow gut instinct. That applies to me, and you can probably guess by now the answer is no :) |
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knew you'd disagree Trev. but i agree with you for doing so
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No offence taking Trevh, I asked for opinions and appreciate the feedback
I would never just bet on instinct, I understand the need for research etc and I rarely get one of these 'gut feelings' and from now on I will be acting on them when i do get them and dont worry I will most certainly be keeping a record. I know I be in profit if id acted on them so far as im not a big better (cant afford to be as a student) and the 44-1 and yesterdays certainly mean my gut instinct bets had made a profit. |
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Funny you should say that I once tried betting with a crystal ball, unfortuently I got a winner at 100/1 and now I dont know what to do with the 101 crystal balls I have?
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I hope you are better at gambling than you are at being 'funny'
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Well I certainly have the balls
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Fellow Arsenal fan i assume frimpong, looking forward to the city game?
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lol nope im not im afraid
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lol, think we got half a chance, as expect lescott to have to play lb and theo could cause him problems, however we got defensive problems of our own. If we get anything it be bonus points for me
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im laying arsenal im afraid mate
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I have just renamed one of my mathematical models "gut feeling". Hence, from now on, I will often be betting according to gut feeling.
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for all your maths Bayes is it not just about gambling on a positive odds movement?
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That's why he has done some remodelling.
He realised, after reading this thread, that he had forgotten to put an all important element into his algorithms. Phew, that was close Bayes. Dodged a bullet there methinks. |
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No bet for me, cant bet against my own team,put money on tottenham to beat us earlier in the season and still felt crap when they won and whenever and dont bet on my own team. Watching Arsenal is stressful enough without money on
Mock all you want boys it was a serious question and I appreiciate the serious responses. Yesterday followed my gut when playing poker and it ended well (before you say anything, of course i still used pot percentages etc) |
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If your instinct is just capturing something you have learned sub-conciously after experiencing similar situations then it is to be used and valued.
I definitely think this is useful in poker, because the same game is repeated many times so learning by instinct can be successful. For example, I know I have had many bad experiences calling early position raises from tight players when I am on the button with, say, AJ, so despite my head telling me I can play position etc, my instinct is to fold, which is probably something I have 'learned' but my head is to overconfident to accept. As for sports betting, I think the constantly fluctuating prices can have many more negative impacts on your emotions (greed, fear) so instinct becomes clouded. |
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Gut feelings are complex intuition or fuzzy logic programs in out brains and can mean something and some days you can do better with this approach then following the form but it is too unreliable to be of any long term practical use and I cant see the many pro-punters in the world dropping their systems to adopt "gut feelings".
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i agree bff
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Nowhere do i suggest anyone relies on it or pro punters drop their systems to adopt gut feelings. I simply asked if when people do get them do they act on them
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I had a gut feeling earlier today and acted on it immediately and rushed straight to the toilet. Phew. Don't let it linger that's what i say.
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My Gut instinct is usually correct.......unfortunately it usually tells me its gonna end in tears.
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I wish your chat name didn't continually remind me of how I like one of my favourite foods to be made.
Every time I read one of your posts, I feel like calling up for pizza delivery. |
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Think I probably need something to eat right now with the stiff drink I'm having, watching one of my bigger bets of the day go down the gurgler, with Dinamo Kiev imploding in a blaze of red cards.
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Thanks for the reply Marntich, i agree with what you said.
Fine as frog hair, kiev a busted 1.01? |
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Nah I was on the off.
Bad enough though. |
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Btw I don't trade in play and so don't follow the prices after the off.
But I would be surprised to hear that Din Kiev to win ever got down to 1.01 during the game. Did it somehow stupidly ? |
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Is the same thing now going to happen to Fulham ?.
I was heavily on them to win at the off too. And they've gone 2 goals up. Looking ominous. |
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Sorry didnt mean had you got on at 1.01 n got it busted just if it had gone to 1.01
Saw it mentioned on the football forum but it can be a circus there at times so thought i ask here. Fair enough if you dont trade inplay |