Question for prof players

I'm not a pro so perhaps I don't qualify to answer.
But my view is don't think in time periods as in days , weeks or months.
Think in terms of the number of bets you make.
If you are a high frequency bettor then your capital downturns will generally be shorter in length, than those who bet less frequently.
But as no one system is the same, it is really impossible to answer your question as it stands.
The key thing is to know the " expected probabilities " of various downturns and be comfortable if and when they occur, that they are likely to be temporary and not cause you any liquidity problems ( that is you are not betting in too large amounts for the size of your bank ).
Once all that knowledge is in place ( ideally even before you start to bet at all) , then the rest is down to discipline and patience.

2007, 2008, 2009; 1 losing month per year.

2010, 2011 3 losing months per year.

2007-2011 in profit every quarter.

Capital is generally increasing more or less continuously as I withdraw less than I make.

Investor
Perhaps you should also reveal the frequency of your betting.
It is relevant I believe.
I think people should be encouraged NOT to think in daily, weekly or even monthly time frames.

And he's hoarding it in readiness for the imminent collapse of the whole world monetary system.
Let's just hope that BF has well spread its deposits over the whole banking spectrum.

In fact after all the dust has settled, Investor might even set up his own bank ? Last man standing and all that.

great insight over there investor. what do u mean average stake? is it the same for lay and back bets, that is the money u are standing to lose if u lost a bet. or do u have a definition implicating the odds.

Investor:

Let's say you have the following 2 horse market:
90/100
1.01/1.02

Ignoring the fact that the crossmatching donkey would gobble the 100s and spit out 110s for a second.

You're saying if I stuck £1000 backing the 1.01 to win 10, I'd have a profit of £10 for a turnover of £1000

But if I laid the 100 with 10 to win 10, I'd have a profit of 10 with a turnover of 10?


That's just crazy, it's exactly the same liability and profit (same green/red marks) in each case! It's the SAME bet!

Wait, you still kinda ARE saying that. How can 2 identical situations set up in different ways lead to 2 different ROIs.

ror, I'm counting 'bet volume' which is what Betfair do.

If you looked at the 'matched' amount, this is calculated in the same way. I just do it like this to be consistent. I can see how big a part of the market I am by taking bet volume x2 as a percentage of the matched amount.

2007, 2008, 2009; 1 losing month per year.

2010, 2011 3 losing months per year.

WTF difference does that make?  Totally totally irrelevant. Giving yourself a slap on the back because your in profit over certain time perdiods is completely moronic.  When you make comments like that it's as if your after adoration from a fan club.  Look at Investor.  He's in profit for 11 MONTHS OF THE YEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The only stat of interest in the one at the bottom of your P&L sheet - ie. the page.

Well you're certainly living up to your chat name.
But that apart, you are correct to say that time periods as an absolute matter are quite irrelevant ( except that at the end of the day if you are a pro you have to start drawing a wage and start eating).
But I think Investor is more using the time periods for comparison trends, that is to see if he is on an improving or deteriorating performance curve.
Also whilst I agree tnat it does all sound a bit self-laudatory, he was in fairness just responding to a query posed for other people's experiences.
Otherwise have a good day ,

It's tough I know, but think of your blood pressure.
Peace brother.
May the birds of paradise ----- etc "
Anyway you may be upsetting Investor, and that is not allowed on here.
So get back in your box Mr A.

Mr Angry is very Angry

ffs - and I thought that I was angry, you is livid

It happens every year after the XMas drinks.

Having spent the day patting themselves for being superior to the mugs, the self-proclaimed Master of the Betting Universe come to the forum to show us they're Big Swinging D1cks.

Oh just lovely MM.
You really have the gift sometimes.

And I meant Masters (plural) not Master (singular).
And I meant "they're".

Thanks for putting a smile on my face at the end of a losing day betfairy.
Always getting wound up over nothing

It's rational to switch between high- and low-variance strategies based on circumstances extrinsic to the expected results of bets e.g. commission, pc or similar charges and the amount of capital it's poss. to deploy at value prices.

The last consideration isn't just about liquidity; it's about having the relationships w/ placers and shop workers to get on at standout, arb and near-arb prices in the shops.

When I can deploy all of my capital expecting steady growth from low-variance strategies, and have a cushion of ample bf losses, I am v. happy doing that.

When I hit a ceiling on the amount of money I can get on in the shops to cover here, I am more inclined to hold onto Kelly-calculated pure gambles.

I've never been in a betting shop.