General Betting
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Hi all,
Not jumping the gun here or counting my chickens. There is still a long way to go in this bet but i want to think about my choices providing things progress as hoped (The final 3 legs of the acca kick off independently of each other so i could trade at some point)
I did an 8 team acca for this weekend including 6 folds and 7 folds with the first 5 obliging... So still a long way to go and the most likely outcome is nothing but i would like to hear peoples thoughts on what they would do as it progresses. Also does anyone know of a good bet calculator which can show you best and worst case earnings depending on results. Most of the calculators i see just assume all your selections are winners and don't work out multi legs (E.g. 6 folds and 7 folds in the same bet)
So here was the bet (deliberately leaving out the teams so as to not tempt fate further)
Team A - Won - 2.1
Team B - Won - 1.61
Team C - Won - 2.2
Team D - Won - 1.2
Team E - Won - 1.75
Team F - TBC - 1.75
Team G - TBC - 3
Team H - TBC - 2.2
8 fold = $50
7 fold = $10 per leg
6 fold = $5 per leg
Cheers...
Not jumping the gun here or counting my chickens. There is still a long way to go in this bet but i want to think about my choices providing things progress as hoped (The final 3 legs of the acca kick off independently of each other so i could trade at some point)
I did an 8 team acca for this weekend including 6 folds and 7 folds with the first 5 obliging... So still a long way to go and the most likely outcome is nothing but i would like to hear peoples thoughts on what they would do as it progresses. Also does anyone know of a good bet calculator which can show you best and worst case earnings depending on results. Most of the calculators i see just assume all your selections are winners and don't work out multi legs (E.g. 6 folds and 7 folds in the same bet)
So here was the bet (deliberately leaving out the teams so as to not tempt fate further)
Team A - Won - 2.1
Team B - Won - 1.61
Team C - Won - 2.2
Team D - Won - 1.2
Team E - Won - 1.75
Team F - TBC - 1.75
Team G - TBC - 3
Team H - TBC - 2.2
8 fold = $50
7 fold = $10 per leg
6 fold = $5 per leg
Cheers...
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Looks like you would be very unlucky
not get at least a 6 fold up which, depending on which one made up the six, gets you a some return, around $80, for a loss of about $200, but it's how you feel about it, as getting the last 3 up, is unlikely (around 10/1) There is a formula for working out these things manually but I'm not clever enough to lay it out on here, for you to understand it. Perhaps someone else might.. GL would at least |
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When are the next matches off? I'm off out for lunch in a mo but I can do the whole thing later if it's not too late. By my (albeit hasty) calculations the 8-fold is worth $781 at the moment and the 7-folds are worth $930. The 6-folds are probably worth considerably more (around $2500?). Almost all of your equity (the 781, nearly 90% of the 930, and probably 80% of the c2500) is going on to the next leg so some kind of fairly lumpy lay would be sensible. A lot depends on what you make the true price of the 1.75 shot
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Another hasty calculation makes the 6-folds worth 1758 at the moment, so your total equity is 3469 and about 2500 is going on to the next leg. From that you should be able to make a decision. Don't take my word for it though as I may well have made a mistake!
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Lay the last three in a treble for $700.
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