General Betting
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27 Nov 11
11:26
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Date Joined:
07 Aug 06
Margins severely eroded and markets becoming ridiculously competitive.
Or am I just in the wrong places at the wrong time?
Or am I just in the wrong places at the wrong time?
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Replies: 40
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It's them winners - they are destroying the eco-system and must be stopped at all costs.
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How silly of me not to have waited till Monday to ask this.
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I haven't noticed anything particular this week, although I have noticed margins getting tighter over the past few months. Inevitable, I suppose, with the new PC charge.
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tbf Alex - your question is nowhere near specific enough to deserve a sensible response.
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yes I have, its gone colder!
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No surprise, I ditched betfair as soon as they took my edge with their evil bot.
Heaps of posters thought I was being paranoid, but there's at least three threads recently about this very "phenomenon". Alex is that a lotus cortina in your pic? |
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dont worry you'll get a winner soon and the eco system will appear to be back to normal.
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Has anybody ever noticed a week in the exchange eco system without a change?
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get sharp or get dying
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Alex, sounds like you're in the wrong place at the wrong time.
I have noticed some mad backers consistently pushing prices too low in some markets, but that won't last very long once they're skint, just a matter of time. |
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Saw some mad fat finger mistakes on Argy football last week, put it down to after closing time KO. But home team backed at away team prices, swiping everything up to high hundreds for decent amounts 2 or 3 times. oops
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I don't see how the pc would make the margins tighter, I would have expected the opposite effect.
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The opposite seems true to me. Most of the markets I look at are dying a slow death.
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Liquidity is dying a slow death, but the actual margins are tighter because the overrounds are being picked up by the house bot.
So punters like Alex and Aussie Punter are being jumped over and not getting matched and it's not by traders, because it isn't worth it to them anymore. Draw your own conclusions, but I've experienced the proof. You might like to note the terms and conditions have changed the wording to "you are betting against Betfair International" Betfair have become nothing more than a low commission bookie, but if you win, they'll make it unprofitable for you. |
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Betting Exchange - dying a slow death
Forum - dying a slow death Thank goodness that The Casino, The Live Casino, The Poker, The Exchange Games and The Arcade are all thriving. If BF can just get the last few exchange customers to move across to these brilliant products their transition will be complete. One more price hike should do it imo. |
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MM,
I've certainly noticed a massive decline in forum activity overall. The only posts are about outages and premium charges, but other than that it's like a ghost town. |
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Racing bot, house bot, trader, automated software. It's all the same to me.
Used to be punter against bookmaker matching wits. Punter against punter also requires same knowledge. Now you don't need knowledge of subject. Is there a betting forum isolated from the effects of these devices? |
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BTO - Yes, both the forum and the markets appear to have tumbleweed blowing through them. A shame but what they have done is akin to inventing the Dyson and then investing all of the profits from that into developing a dustpan and brush. Sharp minds indeed.
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In fairness, the mark-up on the dustpan and brush is no doubt superior - but they seem to have completely overlooked the fact that a) you can get a dustpan and brush anywhere, b) The people that bought the Dyson don't want or need a dustpan and brush.
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^
a + b = tumbleweed QED |
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What margins are tighter? What markets are you all talking about. The overrounds to back or lay on racing have been the same on here for years. As near to 100% books as you can get.
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Who do you suppose is making the markets 100% now that liquidity has more than halved?
Doesn't make sense does it? |
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er punters..layers...whatever you want to call them
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'now that liquidity has more than halved'
What figures do u base this on? |
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I can't understand this thread. Surely if "margins are tighter" that's a sign of higher liquidity and is a good thing?
You're moaning about liquidity being too high while half the forum is moaning about liquidity being too low? Part of the problem is that people are mistaken "volume traded" on a match for liquidity which is nonsense because of the way it is measured. Volume traded is most affected by the length of the shortest odds. In this year the prem has had far longer odds for the favourite in most matches because of the drop off in form of most the bigger clubs which means that trading/matched volumes are smaller but that's not reflective of anything meaningful. If anyone wants a better explanation of why odds are the biggest thing to affect trading volumes I won't go into it now but do ask if you want the breakdown. |
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Is there data to support this?
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Because you aren't seeing the reasons behind it, which I've outlined previously.
Volume is down, it's obvious when looking at the markets in live view. Inhouse and crossmatching bots aren't shown in the tree, because it's not available for anyone else to see or take. The bots are taking positions and taking up the overrounds and making submarkets based on their algorithm. Which is why although you might see a 102% market, it's actually 101% or much less, because the bets sitting there are getting jumped over when their bot can skim by crossmatching or their second bot can make it's own market by skimming. Just like the other forum members have recently experienced. Because there's no proof in the data, doesn't mean it's not happening, I can guarantee it. If one reads ALL of the terms and conditions and notes the recent changes, it's all there in black and white. |
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Magician had the stats, did show alot of difference imo, thread around somewhere
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*didnt show
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because the bets sitting there are getting jumped over
You cant jump over close to 100% markets. What sports & markets are you seeing this in |
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Beat The OverRound 10 Nov 11 10:17
So for the benefit of Betfair: Thankyou for the invitations and various events. Thankyou to my account manager Alex, you did a wonder job of looking after me. Goodbye. If this post remains, to forumites, I suggest you do your own investigations re my recent discoveies. I have had many heated debates over the years, but no malice was ever intended or held. Every approach I posted was done honestly and in good faith, and they work as long as they are not poached by the greedy blue monster. I wish everyone well. P.S. Betfair please do not call me and ask why I'm not using the site, you won't like the abuse that you deserve. Good to see your threat to leave lasted at least a couple of weeks BTO  |
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to answer the original question: no.
the only thing i've noticed lately is that bot operation in some market types is patchier than it used to be. which is fine by me. |
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I have left Joe.
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You cant jump over close to 100% markets
Of course, but they aren't always 100%, but are after they've finished. |
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The closer to 100% the books are the better it is for punters.
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Whatever is or isn't happening BTO is in my opinion the most respected and honest contributer anywhere on the forum.
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^^^is that you BTO?
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catflaqpo
Date Joined: 11 Nov 11 Add contact | Send message When: 28 Nov 11 11:01 Joined: Date Joined: 11 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 63 | Blogger: catflaqpo's blog I don't see how the pc would make the margins tighter, I would have expected the opposite effect. As a PC payer, you effectively stop paying commission. If I could get 2.02 on a coin toss on here repeatedly, I would happily churn through thousands as I get more than 100% of the commission I pay back in the form of reduced PC. The difference between fair price 2.00 and 2.02 is pure (expected) profit. |