General Betting
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i know the answer is yes but can someone confirmed is it ok to back 1.05s that should be 1.02s
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if a horse is 20 on here byt 14 on the books but you think it should be higher thanh 20-1 then is it a value lay but is the books more right than here if its the case what is the point of laying isnt prices on here nearly always higher than the books
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If you mean backing at 1.05 something that has a 98% chance of winning then yes, that is a very good bet.
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In the second example it is only a good value lay if you are right
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You are beyond help.
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i dont bet so how can i be beyond help the fact is the dont bet or learn to trade its better than looking at past stats and relying on past stats to make a selection
wowwwwwwwwwwwwwwww a team has had a pile of over 2.5s in their previous games does it mean there going to have this game over 2.5 no thats were you guys and most gamblers fail believing in the past |
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Yes, your logic is flawed.
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I'm not sure Cat fails, Dev...
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hows my logic flawed i have no logic so what are u even on about smeagle
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a team has had a pile of over 2.5s in their previous games does it mean there going to have this game over 2.5 no
This |
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'i have no logic'
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so you think past stats is everything in football do you well why do bookmakers like bet365 supply past stats yet they dont supply crucial inplay stats like shot on targets shots off target probabloy the two most crucial stats in football only smart people can use past stats in football to determined value
if stats were so good then there would be no bookmakers each and every football match is diffferent a team dosnt play the same every game the inplay traders are creaming it becuase they know simple soccermetric fundamentals |
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I don't think stats are everything at all, where did I say that?
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I didn't write that freddie, I copied it
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That logic is clearly flawed. How does it follow that I think stats are everything?
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Yes exactly. Winning on here is all about gauging the probability of the various outcomes.
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No, but I can look at an f1 market and sometimes spot value
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Who needs to tell the difference between 1.10 and 1.15? The margin for error there is way too tight. There are plenty of 1.5 shots that should be closer to 2.0 (or vice versa), 3.0 shots that should be 4.0 or 5.0 etc.
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Yes, bobbby. Freddie, my main Betting activity is conducted by bots.
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wtf i think paulme as i sixth sense i was reading a trading forum and on an article where a guy says if can happen it will happen
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i really meant to stay dont trust stats too much although use stats to come up with value but anything can happen in a football i do think inplay is the way in football these days the people that have master this are way away of the guys using past performances
i actually think form in horse racing means more than form in football but thats just my opinion |
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You've got to know how to interpret statistics and know which particular stats are important and in which situations they're most effective. In horse racing you've got a huge amount of different factors to take into account, so there's a lot of sifting to do if you're make something practical of them.
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LordBobin : Who needs to tell the difference between 1.10 and 1.15? The margin for error there is way too tight. There are plenty of 1.5 shots that should be closer to 2.0 (or vice versa), 3.0 shots that should be 4.0 or 5.0 etc.
When we look at the inverse the difference isn't so great in your examples, i.e. 3.0 and 4.0 becomes 1.5 and 1.33, and 1.1 and 1.15 becomes 11.0 and 7.6, and who would turn their nose up at laying an 11.0 shot at 7.6 :) |
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the value is in the price dumb as s...u determain value based on price
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wowwwwwwwwwwww you called someone a **** on the forum get a fcking u big betfair mug
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The price is entirely relevant. If you're asking does it matter what price you back at, not at all if you're sure it's value. Just depends what you're comfortable with.
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The only value is the winner thats the One they pay out on .. keep it simple ... when you think about it .. its simple
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Yeah but if we knew the winner, any price would be value as it's chances of winning would be 100% in our calculations.
It's not really that simple, is it? |
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Wicked Whisper...... zip lives in a black and white world you should try it my first lay today won about 20 lenghts my second lay lost so in my world zip lost a point
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Wicked .. see KC lays .......
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Your point being? We hope to back the price at bigger than it's intended long term win %. We can see from the long term that Betfair SP is eerily close to 100%, so if we can back at bigger than the SP on a consistent basis (minus comms), then you're on to a winner.
That's my idea of value. |
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Wicked 3.40 Hereford Egypt Mill Spirit. Don't bother with your horoscope looking if you are a Capricorn or a clown... lump on. Thank me later
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ok the winner is very smart so zip done the cash , is only lent back the winner to do a 3 on the bounce ........ its called Gambling
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lol you're mental mate
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It is excellent to back 1.05's that should be 1.02's. That is a big edge.
zipper, because information is incomplete any horse can be value at the right odds. Winners are irrelevant. For example, suppose someone gives you 2-1 on the flip of a coin. You guess wrong and lose. It was still value even though it lost. |
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Zip is an old School proper gambler, but he must understand value as he used to lay poor prices to 'recreational' punters on the racecourse.
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Slayer ... 2/1 on the flip of a coin ive meet a lot of strange men over the years , but nobody ever went 2/1 on the toss of a coin . unless the coin is bent .
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Zipper - you absolutely personify the expression........ "There's no fool like an old fool"
hth |
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P.S. Ignore the offer of 2/1 on the heads, we all know tails is a cert - lump on the cert at 10/11 and thank me later
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zipper is correct in that in theory 2/1 for a toss of the coin is obvious value. But in practice, and with experience, you would be daft to take it.
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