General Betting
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Professional Gambler:
Rarely loses control when placing bets.
Gambling is methodical and planned (e.g., a professional horse gambler may not bet on every race).
Maintain discipline and refrain from impulsive betting
Accept financial losses without chasing to win them back.
Professional gamblers do not meet the DSM-IV criteria for pathological gambling, but may have a couple of symptoms (e.g. preoccupation).
Gambling is their primary source of income.
Most problem and pathological gamblers fantasize about being a professional gambler or mistakenly believe that they are, there are very few true professional gamblers.
Many professional gamblers will eventually evolve in to problem or pathological gambling.
It has been estimated that there are fewer than 3,000 professional gamblers in the US and Canada and only 50 professional gamblers in the U.S. who earn over $100,000 dollars annually by gambling. Psychological profiles of professional horse gamblers showed they tend to be somewhat boring, socially insensitive, extremely unsentimental, hyper-vigilant, and very tense. (McCown & Chamberlain, 2000).
The term "professional gambler" is very complex in distinguishing from problem and pathological gambler and the assessment should be conducted by a trained professional therapist who also consults with the gambler's family/friends regarding the presence of symptoms.
Rarely loses control when placing bets.
Gambling is methodical and planned (e.g., a professional horse gambler may not bet on every race).
Maintain discipline and refrain from impulsive betting
Accept financial losses without chasing to win them back.
Professional gamblers do not meet the DSM-IV criteria for pathological gambling, but may have a couple of symptoms (e.g. preoccupation).
Gambling is their primary source of income.
Most problem and pathological gamblers fantasize about being a professional gambler or mistakenly believe that they are, there are very few true professional gamblers.
Many professional gamblers will eventually evolve in to problem or pathological gambling.
It has been estimated that there are fewer than 3,000 professional gamblers in the US and Canada and only 50 professional gamblers in the U.S. who earn over $100,000 dollars annually by gambling. Psychological profiles of professional horse gamblers showed they tend to be somewhat boring, socially insensitive, extremely unsentimental, hyper-vigilant, and very tense. (McCown & Chamberlain, 2000).
The term "professional gambler" is very complex in distinguishing from problem and pathological gambler and the assessment should be conducted by a trained professional therapist who also consults with the gambler's family/friends regarding the presence of symptoms.
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jimmy69 • November 3, 2011 11:45 AM GMT
Crap. People take silly prices all day here but they still make money.
By the definition of 'silly prices', they can't do that over a long-term basis and make money.
Crap. People take silly prices all day here but they still make money.
By the definition of 'silly prices', they can't do that over a long-term basis and make money.
Fair enough U25K but why prove it to them rather than just state it? What was your motivation for doing the former rather than the latter? I'm just curious.
By silly prices I generally mean taking under bookies odds...and they most certainly can make it pay long term. If you can pick winners then you will win money.
you need to pick winners/losers at the right odd mate
by silly price im assuming you mean a low or incase of laying a high price the price is irrelavant if theres value long term
by silly price im assuming you mean a low or incase of laying a high price the price is irrelavant if theres value long term
dizzy - no one believe you if you just state. Even after putting video up there are people who sake it can be faked.
picking winners is possible but it is hard work. You can hit losing streak suddenly and your bank will disappear , unless you are disciplined in staking and bank management. Pre match betting is difficult job compared to in-running as odds are mostly fair. You need to have an edge comparing to market in picking value odds. Nothing is impossible but it is just in comparision difficult.
ffs..if you pick winners it doesn't matter what odds they are...you will win FACT
U25K....I agree with you about that...but why does it matter to you whether people believe you or not? You know you win a lot of money on here, why do you want to convince others that it's true?
catfloppo,
The prices are purely decorative. Remember: you can't eat prices!
The prices are purely decorative. Remember: you can't eat prices!
If I was making the profits Uk25 seems to be I'd be making HD 3D DD videos of my profits just to wind up the naysayers.
u25k, i may have missed this earlier on thread...what is your MO? Do you bet IR, make markets, bot? Cheers and well done on your continued success.
bot - no
fast pictures - no
1.01 backer and 1000 layer - no
make markets - no
bet IR - yes
fast pictures - no
1.01 backer and 1000 layer - no
make markets - no
bet IR - yes
jimmy69 you can pick 99 winners in a row and lose if your backing 1.01s
it is about picking winners at higher odds than what they should be if you keep picking winners at bad odds when a loser or two comes your done then all your winners mean nothing its about picking winners at the right prices anyone can pick a 1.20 winner most of the time but you need to pick those 1.20 winners that should be lower than 1.20
a winner is a winner but if you continue to make selections at the wrong prices your going no where and im not some professional betting god its just common sense mathematical common sense
it is about picking winners at higher odds than what they should be if you keep picking winners at bad odds when a loser or two comes your done then all your winners mean nothing its about picking winners at the right prices anyone can pick a 1.20 winner most of the time but you need to pick those 1.20 winners that should be lower than 1.20
a winner is a winner but if you continue to make selections at the wrong prices your going no where and im not some professional betting god its just common sense mathematical common sense
Nov 3, 2011 -- 11:30AM, jimmy69 wrote:
ffs..if you pick winners it doesn't matter what odds they are...you will win FACT
OMG you were here since 10 years? or your were chatting here using someone else account?
If you are joking then thats fine otherwise I prey god to save you.
You'd be amazed how many punters think like that! It doesn't matter what you say, they are adamant that it's only value if it wins.
What is it that you people can't understand? If you pick winners then you will win money. Price is irrelevant. Are you unable to grasp that concept? You can't eat value....
What are winners in the non traditional sense if you don't mind me asking?
A winner is a winner if you back if before on during play.
I never said my betting was based on picking winners.
That isn't surprising jimmy, if you were serious earlier
Unlike all the so called professionals here I am a recreational gambler...I have had a big turnover over the years though...enough money to feed a small country I reckon.
I am probably about 5K up with the bookies over the years...makes you wonder whether it's all worthwhile...al that time for nowt
if you calling surfing the net and watching sport...then yes
Jimmy, perhaps if you bothered to take into account the prices at which you were betting, you'd have won rather more over the last 10 years..
jimmy69 thanks for your contribution. Betfair need players like you. We genuinely love players like you.
My pleasure. I look forward to doing business with you again.
I doubt it Lord Bobbin...I need to pick some winners first
jimmy69 thanks for your contribution. Betfair need players like you. We genuinely love players like you.
Wow talk about smarmy arrogance u25k, theses people who admit to not making much are funding your comfortable lifestyle, show some respect.
Wow talk about smarmy arrogance u25k, theses people who admit to not making much are funding your comfortable lifestyle, show some respect.
Betfair need players like you. We genuinely love players like you.
It means we really respect them. We love them.
It means we really respect them. We love them.
There's a minimal sense in which an activity like betting pays you just for showing up.
If I'm in Coral for the 10 mins. in the mid-morning when they go 8-1 a horse w/ a form chance in an illiquid market, then the horse turns out to be hot, I get paid for my knowledge of the form and my happening to be in the hours in the sense of being in the shop.
There's another version of this for market-makers in that odds fluctuations, which tend to be range-bound, work in their favour if they can monitor markets throughout the morning.
It seems perfectly reasonable to me that market-makers and drip-feeders (given bf's absurd interface) take from the people who log on and indiscriminately take a price at any point in time.
Only one side is putting in the work.
If I'm in Coral for the 10 mins. in the mid-morning when they go 8-1 a horse w/ a form chance in an illiquid market, then the horse turns out to be hot, I get paid for my knowledge of the form and my happening to be in the hours in the sense of being in the shop.
There's another version of this for market-makers in that odds fluctuations, which tend to be range-bound, work in their favour if they can monitor markets throughout the morning.
It seems perfectly reasonable to me that market-makers and drip-feeders (given bf's absurd interface) take from the people who log on and indiscriminately take a price at any point in time.
Only one side is putting in the work.
Szczesny...I don't know why he loves me. I am unlikely to have lost anything to him.
Jimmy, if you are not fishing or trolling, why look a gift horse in the mouth?
You have an almost 100k a year winner and some other winners earning what wd be in the 40% tax bracket giving you advice on this thread, and you prefer to cast aspersions on their temperament?
Why not try to pick up something and become a winning punter?
You have an almost 100k a year winner and some other winners earning what wd be in the 40% tax bracket giving you advice on this thread, and you prefer to cast aspersions on their temperament?
Why not try to pick up something and become a winning punter?
askari...he hasn't give anybody any help...all he has done has posted his p/l
jimmy-"ffs..if you pick winners it doesn't matter what odds they are...you will win FACT"
I mean anyone who speaks facts like above are valuable and respectable customers. I can be called smug/arrogant only if I don't understand their value and their contribution to this platform.
I mean anyone who speaks facts like above are valuable and respectable customers. I can be called smug/arrogant only if I don't understand their value and their contribution to this platform.
u25k,
You win on here, well done. jimmy69 loses. Be smug, you deserve it :)
You win on here, well done. jimmy69 loses. Be smug, you deserve it :)
U25K...you have won an awful lot more money on here than I'll ever win and for your success at that you have my respect. It's interesting though that the one question of mine that you avoided answering is why you feel the need to convince (ie prove rather than just tell) us all that you're a big winner.
It makes me feel happy if people believe what I say. If I just state they are going to say not possible as they can't accept the truth that it is possible. By showing the video I am proving that it is possible.
It means we really respect them. We love them.
walofs, in context of the dialogue previous, it's a clear as daylight you were being arrogant, and you also like insulting people's intelligence.
walofs, in context of the dialogue previous, it's a clear as daylight you were being arrogant, and you also like insulting people's intelligence.
no 
I think few years back I remember a topic where losers were stated as mugs. In the same topic finally everyone agreed that they are more important to betfair. I really mean they are very important to betfair platform and love them.
I think few years back I remember a topic where losers were stated as mugs. In the same topic finally everyone agreed that they are more important to betfair. I really mean they are very important to betfair platform and love them.
I think that both sides to this argument have merit. That is Jimmy is not totally right or wrong.
Obviously if any system wins long term, it must be making selections that win to a greater degree than their implied probability. That is one is finding value in the odds.
On the other hand, any truly robust system can generally win at odds substantially less than the odds it usually achieves, because the odds themselves are so approximate and subjective in sporting events.
My personal experience is that odds obtained can be reduced by factors of 5-10% and still result in a reasonably profitable syste.
I think this odds variance sensitivity will be a function, more or less, on the incidence of your bets. I find that the more you bet the less you can generally take lower odds.That is less best in this respect. But betting in less volume means compensating with higher betting amounts, which runs you into liquidity constraints. There's always a downside to everything in betting, or so it seems to me.
Obviously if any system wins long term, it must be making selections that win to a greater degree than their implied probability. That is one is finding value in the odds.
On the other hand, any truly robust system can generally win at odds substantially less than the odds it usually achieves, because the odds themselves are so approximate and subjective in sporting events.
My personal experience is that odds obtained can be reduced by factors of 5-10% and still result in a reasonably profitable syste.
I think this odds variance sensitivity will be a function, more or less, on the incidence of your bets. I find that the more you bet the less you can generally take lower odds.That is less best in this respect. But betting in less volume means compensating with higher betting amounts, which runs you into liquidity constraints. There's always a downside to everything in betting, or so it seems to me.
Also on the u25 K posts. Well done.
However they do raise an interesting question to me.
Here we have a successful gambler who, after quite a few years of consistent success, is still only earning circa 100K pa.
Does this mean that it is really difficult for conventional punters ( that is non bot non-high frequency traders) to scale up above this level. Is the liquuidity out there to earn 4-5 times that ?
In my personal observations, the systems I apply have this type of ceiling to them, due to reaching max bet sizes available at " reasonable " odds.
However they do raise an interesting question to me.
Here we have a successful gambler who, after quite a few years of consistent success, is still only earning circa 100K pa.
Does this mean that it is really difficult for conventional punters ( that is non bot non-high frequency traders) to scale up above this level. Is the liquuidity out there to earn 4-5 times that ?
In my personal observations, the systems I apply have this type of ceiling to them, due to reaching max bet sizes available at " reasonable " odds.
Btw don't all say welcome back at the same time and overlead the BF servers.
U25K thanks for your answer. I can see wht you provided proof as you've done, otherwise people might think you're just another Billy Bullsh***er like so many on here. I can understand why it'd make you happy that people here believe you about your winnings.
Fafh, there has to be a limit to what a strategy can win on here because there are not unlimited bets on the other side.
Btw jimmy, my earlier post was more in support of u25k than against you.
jimmy, he's said that he doesn't back what he thinks will win; instead he backs anything that's bigger odds than what he makes it.
He's able to find an edge (identifying wrong odds) by picking up on momentum changes in football and tennis matches faster than the market--which in football will mean going against decay-of-time bots.
This shd be enough to get started w/.
It's not hard to avoid defeat if it matters to you--if you have the hours and the stamina to spend them in front of a bf screen.
He's able to find an edge (identifying wrong odds) by picking up on momentum changes in football and tennis matches faster than the market--which in football will mean going against decay-of-time bots.
This shd be enough to get started w/.
It's not hard to avoid defeat if it matters to you--if you have the hours and the stamina to spend them in front of a bf screen.
tennis is well established. Odds are not usually wrong. If you think the odds are wrong it is only our own perception which again may be right or wrong. But if you don't panic and pick the momentum of game it is not that hard to make money.
I used to back in tennis and watch my bet waiting for the result and used to panic when it is going wrong way. I think now I am trying to be as active as possible and trading as early as possible to take some profit and get out.
I used to back in tennis and watch my bet waiting for the result and used to panic when it is going wrong way. I think now I am trying to be as active as possible and trading as early as possible to take some profit and get out.
In play tennis is a great market, you can make money just anticipating the price changes on each point.
You'll only "know " if the odds were "right" or "wrong" in the long term and by then it will be too late to do anything about it, good if you were on the right side more often than not, and bad if the converse.
Cat
Doesn't this also mean the opposite, in that for every winner there must be a loser.
Anticipating the price takes two to tango doesn't it ?
Doesn't this also mean the opposite, in that for every winner there must be a loser.
Anticipating the price takes two to tango doesn't it ?
Luckily the vast majority of the people on here lose
So you're basically saying that when you watch a live tennis match, you can pick who is going to win or lose the next point, better than the majority of watchers who happen to be also betting ?
Now that is a god given gift, I must confess.
Now that is a god given gift, I must confess.
Lol, no. If you watch an in play market you can anticipate how the odds will change at the end of the point.
Yes, but depending on who wins the point surely ?
And that is the big unknown ( to most of us anyway ).
And that is the big unknown ( to most of us anyway ).
You can predict what the odds will change to in both scenarios.
Yep you can and how can that benefit you ?
Don't you have to go one way or another in advance ?.
Or do you have a magical method of covering both options ?
If you do, then you definitely won't be revealing it on here will you ? More's the pity, but it would be totally self-defeating I understand.
So what have we all gained in this illuminating exchange ?
Just reassurance that I'm back still in the fine form of past glory days ( unfortunately ? ).
Don't you have to go one way or another in advance ?.
Or do you have a magical method of covering both options ?
If you do, then you definitely won't be revealing it on here will you ? More's the pity, but it would be totally self-defeating I understand.
So what have we all gained in this illuminating exchange ?
Just reassurance that I'm back still in the fine form of past glory days ( unfortunately ? ).
Btw Cat I regard you as one of my very few " friends " on here.
So don't go all ballistic on me now.
So don't go all ballistic on me now.
Lol, no. I went to sleep, not ballistic 
In the kerfuffle of bet taking at the end of each point you can get matched favourably as the market settles. You don't need to cover both options, just keep taking value bets and you'll win eventually - every time I've tried it I've greened up.
It needs skill and judgement but no knowledge of tennis or the match - you don't even need to be watching the telly, in fact it's probably better if you don't.
In the kerfuffle of bet taking at the end of each point you can get matched favourably as the market settles. You don't need to cover both options, just keep taking value bets and you'll win eventually - every time I've tried it I've greened up.
It needs skill and judgement but no knowledge of tennis or the match - you don't even need to be watching the telly, in fact it's probably better if you don't.
catfloppo, I guess you mean that if it's 15-0 and you know what the odds will be at 15-15 and 30-0, you can back and lay the favourite at prices reflecting where the fair odds should be in both scenarios and add your desired margin. If you are lucky enough to get matched, the price will more likely than not revert to 'where it should be' and you green out?
Precisely TheInvestor2, I've only tried it a few times but each time i've quite easily greened up. It perhaps wouldn't work on a match where one player dominated all the way through - my examples were very up and down.
Quite obvious the video is a fake without dissecting it.
The proof is here:
If you pick winners then you will win money. Price is irrelevant.
Done and dusted
The proof is here:
If you pick winners then you will win money. Price is irrelevant.
Done and dusted
Catfloppo...you will be pleased to hear I have won 4 and a half grand since the other night so I'm only 500 quid down now. I will soon be able to call myself a professional.
He wants you to provide tips. He doesn't have any thoughts of his own.
In case it isn't obvious, jorgeburns = useless ****
At university, we were once shown a video of a man suffering from total amnesia. His every living moment was like that of someone experiencing things for the first time.
When I read paulme's 'contributions' to the forum, I am reminded of that man.
When I read paulme's 'contributions' to the forum, I am reminded of that man.
Cheers Cat...hopefully I will be in the 2% of accounts that make a profit soon
You MUGS will be pleased to hear that after a good run I am finally back in profit...
Can think of plenty words........... but enigma wasn't one of them! 
those stats from the us area crock of chit, what about the hundreds of folk every year that win lotteries and live off there winnings for the rest of there lives, certainly not addicted gamblers but buying tickers every week to make an income would be classed as professional activity?
What about all the poker players semi-pro to pro that make a living from a game that involves some skill and a lot of luck?
I could go on but the problem with stats is you can tweek and mess around with them to favor any bias you want, ask any politician.
What about all the poker players semi-pro to pro that make a living from a game that involves some skill and a lot of luck?
I could go on but the problem with stats is you can tweek and mess around with them to favor any bias you want, ask any politician.
also if you look up addition it will state the phrase uncotrollable without intervetion, many gamblers dont spend every cent on gambling and can maintain normal lives but choose to spend some of there income on risk betting and could you not class some of the biggest earning pro gamblers as addicts, only they are addicted to winning?
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