TAKING VALUE TO SERIOUSLY

Thanks for the book recommendation. I'll go and check it out.  (The downside of betting on baseball is that I might have to watch some baseball...  No amount of money is worth that punishment!! )

cpfc - whilst past data helps reflect "true" probability think it is naive to think that is the be all and end all. True probability is an opinion and whilst really good punters/judges may be able to get really close in their estimation it is just that and estimation. They profit by knowing that their estimations are close enough that over many events betting at odds above their estimations they will profit.

If the outcome of an event is not known as it is not completed and also the outcome is uncertain then any bet placed on its outcome can be classed as an opinion as is any price that reflects its chance and any method used to predict its chance, even if a completely automated process, the process itself can be classed as the product of an opinion, of course other posters if they feel that betting is not based on opinions can put there opinions on this matter forward at the possible expense of there own creditability as sensible posters.

Just because people have an opinion on what is value and what isn't doesn't make it subjective.  True odds exist for any outcome just as there are an actual number of marbles in a jar.

Wrong example as there is no "jar" involved in a sporting event, the fact a jar of marbles is a defined amount makes its amount invariable, thus probability is not involved in this process , of course persons could guess what the amount was and this would be an opinion.

"true odds" ? , cat would you care to enlighten us to what this means? anti-post, pre-race , post start, in-play, tissue prices from a multitude of speculators or just marbles in a jar??????

This is getting better[;)]

The closest you will get to the "fixed marbles in a jar" scenario is a virtual race or FOBT gaming machine game, did you know that all managers can view exactly how much a person is winning and there credit amount when playing a machine, it seems data protection stops when one enters a LBO as it does when one has an account with any betting company therefore a customers value to the company becomes the subject of opinion

How can betting companies get away with advertising that they payout winnings and winners when they hide there rules about how much you can win in t & c or covert practices towards customers and there accounts?

Its a bit like easy jet saying "come fly with me" and then turning the plane round mid-Atlantic and throwing the passengers out the cargo door as they are perceived as UN-profitable by the company on this particular trip!

If it's invariable how many marbles are in the jar?

Unless there is a change in the condition of the jar of marbles the amount thats in it is invariable, it is a "constant" amount.

Ok, what is that amount?

BFF don't really care if you believe in god or not, nor does it have any relevance to this "debate".
I think you read too many books.

Also, I'd be interested to see if we could quantify the [b]VALUE[/b] of betting advice from someone who as far as anyone knows has never even placed a bet

i'd imagine it would come a pretty close second to a chimpanzee picking runners with a blindfold and a pin
but that's just my "opinion" [;)]

what if someone thinks a price should be 1.75 and the othe guy thinks it should be 1.76

hejik YOU DONT HAVE TO PLACE A BET TO HAVE A KNOWLEDGE OF SPORT FACT NOT FICTION

what difference does that make? if you can take 2.0 then it matters not a jot you moron

YOU GOT ANGER ISSUES MATE

I amazes me the amount of posters that seem to magically know of my betting frequency on betfair, it seems that, how much we bet, what our views are about company practices, how much we have won, how much we can keep is all data at the disposal of persons happily working outside of the premise of general data protection consensus to bolster up there own inadequateness's as a company, individuals or "fair" persons.

just my opinion of course

no i don't mate, i just think clueless people shouldn't be posting on intelligent topics
the point you tried to make was idiotic

i don't know anything about your betting bff, nor do i care.
win/lose it don't make a difference to me but you are continually spouting nonsense about a concept that you clearly don't grasp.

you mate revolutionary is the same. open sup like 5 threads asking the same question, shows a clear misundestanding of the topic under discussion yet wants to argue an idiotic point with people that do understand it (the same people he'd asked for help in the first place)

THE POINT IS HOW CAN PEOPLE ESTIMATE VALUE TOO EXACT ODDS


CLUELESS YOU HAVNT PROVEN YOUR WORTH ON HERE SO YOUR NO BETTER THAN ANY ONE ELSE SO YOUR IN NO POSITION TO ACT THE BIG SHOT 

AND THE FACT YOUR TRYING TO ACT HARD ON THE INTERNET MAKES IMO YOU A SAD VILE INDIVIDUAL


PLUS IM NOT WRITING ON A JOTTER SO HOW CAN I JOT ON I THINK YOUR THE IDIOT

Whether there is or isn't a jar involved doesn't make a difference as to whether true odds exist. Obviously the more factors (the more marbles) there are potentially, the more difficult it is to determine the true odds. Seeing that there's a jar will allow us to put a top figure on the number of marbles and then work our way down from there.

If we looked at enough jars of a same size, and estimated the number of marbles again and again, over time we'd become better at telling from a glance how many marbles there are. (Incidentally, this brings us over to the idea of Rain Man-style 'Autistic Savants'. Some Savants supposedly have an unerring ability to tell, for instance, the number of marbles in a jar. It's tempting to put this down to some amazing ability they were born with when, in fact, the truth is very different. Autistic Savants become obsessed with doing the same things again and again. If their particular obsession involves counting marbles in a jar, they might do that thousands (if not millions) of times in a day. Their ability to tell the number of marbles is simply a by-product of having done that same thing billions and billions of times over their lifetime.)

However, every event has a precise chance of being successful. If you were to play that event several million times, you would see its 'true odds'.  All of us have to estimate what we believe those true odds to be, and the closer we get, the more effective we'll be at working out whether there's value (ie, a significant difference between what the price should be and what it actually is) at the prices given.   To a certain extent, we all have to strive to become Savants in our fields as much as possible.

i'd imagine it would come a pretty close second to a chimpanzee picking runners with a blindfold and a pin but that's just my "opinion"

Of lets not debate on issues hejik, just debase into hatred and anger, humans count on there fingers, chimpanzees would happily bite them off as they haven't evolved the unique way we have, yourself excluded

Dev, don't start bringing up that drivel about 'proving your worth'.  You're getting as tiresome and idiotic as Paulme.

BFF, how many marbles in the jar?

MATE I THINK I KNOW WHAT VALUE IS THE POST WAS ABOUT SOME PEOPLE TAKE VALUE TOO SERIOUS START GOING DOWN THE PATH OF BACKING 1000-1 MULTIPLES AND BACKING OVER 6.5 GOALS THINKING A BIG PRICE IS AUTOMATCALLY VALUE


YOU HAVE TO KNOW WHAT WINS AND LOSES BEFORE YOU LOOK FOR VALUE


THIERS NO POINT BACKING A FOOTBALL TEAM BECUASE THERE 5/1 AND BETTING IT BLINDLY BECUASE THERE 5/1

YOU KNOW IT AND EVERYONE ELSE KNOW IT PEOPLE PLACE 10 FOLD ACCAS FACT NOT FICTION

IF I DIDNT UNDERSTAND VALUE THEN I WOULD BACK EVERY 1.01 BLINDLY EVERY DAY

FACT NOT FICTION


I NOW LEAVE

LIKE I SAID YOU HAVE NOT PROVEN YOURSELF TO ANYONE  THERFORE YOU ARE IN NO POSITION TO THINK YOUR A BIG SHOT

YOU CANT POSSIBLE KNOW EVERYTHING ABOUT EVERY SPORT THEREFORE YOU ARE IN NO POSITION YO COMMENT ON THINGS YOU DONT KNOW ABOUT

YOU CAN ONLY RELATE TO WHAT SPORT YOU KNOW FACT NOT FICTION


I NOW LEAVE

Brilliant post lord bobbin and how very true.

its true lord these guys cant possibly know about every sport



why dont they play at fifa for money if they think there big shots that right they wont play a thing where thier in control

i now leave

REvolutionary, are you for real, gotta be a wind-up, if you are leaving have you considered any new avenues to explore, spoon bending could be just the thing, if rubbing it with your little finger doest work you could bend them round hejiks little todger.

i don't think he can be for real bff.

and my contribution to this thread was entirely constructive. neither you nor revolutionary or the other plonker paulme have the slightest clue.

you just have it so wrong it's boring reading you.

and i'm not entirely sure where i said i was a big shot or that i knew everything about all sports?
Also not really sure what i'm expected to prove exactly?

You all one and the same person? seems to be a recurring theme with the forum morons - prove yourself.
How would i do that eactly? post up 1000's of bets over 4/5 year period by which time plonkers like you 3 will finally have seen the light and gone and done something else?

your "opinion" is good for me, winners need losers [;)]

But aren't you glad that there are so many who don't get it?

yes catflap! very much so

From my obeservations

hejik, you seem to be very full of yourself and would like to exclude the possibility that you could ever be wrong about anything. ( Niave and selfish)

Paulme appears to be intelligent but asking others to do what he is unable to do and wont pay for so he is probably lazy or lacks sparkle( has potential though).

Revoltionary is not sure as to what he should or should not be doing so seems to be confused.

From my obeservations

hejik, you seem to be very full of yourself and would like to exclude the possibility that you could ever be wrong about anything. ( Niave and selfish)

Paulme appears to be intelligent but asking others to do what he is unable to do and wont pay for so he is probably lazy or lacks sparkle( has potential though).

Revoltionary is not sure as to what he should or should not be doing so seems to be confused.

From my obeservations

hejik, you seem to be very full of yourself and would like to exclude the possibility that you could ever be wrong about anything. ( Niave and selfish)

Paulme appears to be intelligent but asking others to do what he is unable to do and wont pay for so he is probably lazy or lacks sparkle( has potential though).

Revoltionary is not sure as to what he should or should not be doing so seems to be confused.

You can say that again...

there are bugs in the posting software, I didn't even press anything there or finish my posts,

By the way many posters appear to be very sharp minded on this thread and probably have bank accounts to back this fact up.

I appear to be a nuisance and should spend more time doing something more constructive than posting

Posting is like toasting, it either pops up raw or burnt but each slice feeds the next poster,
some posters get fed up and hit the toaster(poster) but these toasters have got attitude and fire raw toast at the assailant

I know, it's happened to me.

I think it's pretty unlikely that any of the 'sharp minds' don't understand the importance of value.

from my observations... based on your observations...

1.) BFF - if you think paulme is intelligent then there is no hope for you at all!

2.) I am happy to accept I am wrong if you post up something which contradicts what i am saying. But since you can't do that because you do not understand the subject - yes in this instance i know i am right and i know far more about it than you do.

3.) revolutionary can't even use his keyboard properly, so confused may be the right word although I was thinking more "dumb"

Well at least we finally agree on something then [;)]

It is true BFF, you completely lost me too with that Paul being intelligent comment...

AS Einstein once said about the news that the universe was actually expanding,

Probably that greatest blunder of my professional career.

If he had observed Paulmes knowledge and intellect as expanding instead of condensing this would of superseded all other incorrect observations.

How can I hold my head up now in betfairs forum with this blatant act of stupidity revealed, I am ruined.

i think everyone thinks you're a bit of a plank anyway bff.

but for the sake of the thread, if you couldn't possibly ever beat the fair price fro an event you can only hope to break even at best in the long term. whether it's conscious or unconscious - if you are making money long term then you are taking value positions

Perhaps revolutionary is correct with this thread topic though, many do take value far too seriously
perhaps for some it becomes an obsession in the customer camp as well as the betfair corporations ranks it.

and on that statement I must confess to being a profit margin addict too.

I cannot hold much worth on this forum as I haven't had a bet yet and I will sum this up in this famous quote;

I have far more
confidence in the one
man who works
mentally and bodily at a
matter than in the six
who merely talk about it.

Michael Faraday

Yeah BF. When (if!) you do come to place a bet, you'll quickly discover that trying to find value is absolutely crucial. If you're not getting value then you won't be making money in the long-term.

There are strange forces at work though in calibrating value as I have confirmed that when selections are viewed as part of a formula to try to evaluate there implied value, when a runner is a huge price it can mean its chance is actually much worse and when a hot price, it increase the chance so there is a good argument in the thread.

Backing favorites or runners with a shortened price can reach a point where this runner has no value as can backing at a large price as its chances are swept away , there does indeed seem to be a happy zone of minimum and maximum price because of inferred chance relative to the price against value relative to the perceived strike rate.

Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be any way to collate the BSP on dog racing unless someone knows any source?

It is very very simple.

If you can consistently find value, and you are disciplined, in the long run you will win = 100% certainty.

However, that is a very big IF !!!!!!!!

someone
just
backed
a
horse
at
1.01
in
photo
betting
and
it
was
not
in
the
photo
.
terrible
value
he
took
.
and 39k
lost
at
1.01
and
the
rest
to
999/1
.
dam
those
green
silks
and
specsavers
he
is
going

lay the shorties

These threads usually end with posters abusing each other,
the reason why I didn't join in. My fears were realised.

The irony is that THE-REVELOUTIONARY sits behind a bank of flat screen monitors while his bot uses Bayesian statistical models to price up thousands of markets in nanoseconds. He only posts these threads because he's bored and wants to distract the competition.

The caps-lock is indicative of the fact he writes his code in assembly language.

"Believe it or not sports betting is not about picking winners, it's about finding opportunities where the true win probability is greater than the implied probability of the price you backed."

is it also about predicting favourable odds movememt?

hejik - "and my contribution to this thread was entirely constructive. neither you nor revolutionary or the other plonker paulme have the slightest clue."

dont you bring me into this you grade a c0ck! rev is right, you are an angry despisable creature heydrich!

You can say that again... 

These threads usually end with posters abusing each other,

spot on kenilworth

oh and hejik/heydrich whatever your true name is, bff isn't the plank, you are chap!! HTH

The caps-lock is indicative of the fact he writes his code in assembly language

LOL

were these abusive posts before or after you sent me a pm asking for help paulme?

around the same time. no need for unprovoked nastiness reinhard. you should learn to be nice. are you married? kids?

what relevance does that have?

you got to be on the piss take mate because if you're not then you're an absolute 'tard to be repeating the same old tired **** all over again

cos you're not the friendliest

excuse me reinhard what am i repeating?

good thread this

There is something about REVS threads that seems staged and divisive, sets himself up for shooting down, a sitting duck, caps locks and minces up sentences and meanings like a virgin having jig, jig on her honeymoon, quite odd?

Your posts have been decidedly more raunchy since the porn thread I have noticed :p

Isn't it possible to put forward a hypothetical idea that finding the exact statistical probability of  an outcome in a sporting contest is is impossible but doesn't the betting exchange model seem to  contradict this idea.  The markets on here do not easily seem to favour the layers or the punters suggesting their very efficient at finding the true odds.

A bit like a meteorologist having a highly sophisticated idea on predicting the weather but when he goes outside to look at the day his forecast turns out to be all wrong.

However well argued the theory that nobody knows the true odds on a particular sport, Betfairs prices on racing and premier league football seem remarkably accurate.

I can agree totally with your claim no moves, betfairs implied chances in events are remarkably close to the real thing but only generally over the whole of the price ranges, its hidden in the clouds down somewhere that you find all the many rainbows

That's a good point No Moves.  The Wisdom of Crowds certainly does appear to apply to Betfair, given that, as you say, the markets don't clearly favour either backers or layers.  However, the odds on a specific horse (or whatever the market) winning will often be a little bit out. Occasionally they'll be significantly out. The trick is to wait until it's clear that a price is a long way out of whack with the real chances of that horse winning, and then back or lay as appropriate.

I agree lordbobbin and no moves, quite essential understandings for all profitable gamblers

What also seems apparent because of the aforementioned conditions in sourcing any implied/actual chance deviation or aka edge, is that the more selections you find will on average decrease in average profit potential per selection as "good things" are few and far between and the first law of successful betting is finding a compromise between having enough selections/systems to accommodate profitable betting against having loss exposure by saturating your marginal profit with close to the borderline profit or even loss making selections due to the fragility of the perceived edges against the accuracy of the market generally.

Against all this any current or future punters wishing to use betfair have to now consider the effect of an aggressive charging regime by betfair caused by betfair creating a huge error in
there original and long standing commission system that propagates trading which by the use of
many trading bots has although providing liquidity to the markets has enabled the most successful
traders with 2% commission advantage and personal liquidity to win at a rate far beyond betfairs marginal and flawed commission system to the expense of customers accounts generally.

If betfair had a charging system in the beginning similar to the new B_E_T_T_O_R dot com where by trading is hit the hardest as commission has to be paid on each bet and not on the event then betfair would not of been in the position its in now with having to put a brake on the trading bots vis heavy charging and recreation players would of been on as low as 1-1.5% commission rates and predictive edge betting would of made the markets more accurate and less vulnerable

Its ironic that a betting site that encouraged a trading system and even showed customers how to trade has come to realize after floating on the real exchange that its trading that ultimately will carve up betfairs profits , internally via automated betting traders and when taking on the might of the stock market traders and the press whom build success up only to knock it back down at the first sight of any problems.

Ok here is one for you

You know the EPL matches for say 3 weeks in advance.

If your a defender of all things value

post up what odds you think a match should be???


Value is in the eye of the beholder.

What you think is overs other think is unders whos right???

The point to the above post is most of you people wouldn't even know what price to put up for the event, so if you can't price the event yourself you don't know what the right odds should be so how do you know what is value if you can't price an event??

Your all just sheep.

Perhaps betfairs success tax or premium charges are the only viable solutions to maintain the system for the benefit of all customers generally now and in the future, but a further increase would put there position as market leader well and truly at risk.

GCI, lets say we were all sheep, would your last post make you the top ram or is it that we wont take you on as we are all sheepish

GCI, you are right to point out that most people can't actually price up an event. That's one reason why so many people struggle to make money betting - if you don't have an idea as to what the price ought to be, how can you start to determine whether you think there's value?   

I'm not yet sufficiently well-developed so that I can come up with a precise price for a market, although I am starting to get to the point where, in certain limited situations, I can tell that a price is 'wrong', and that I'll be getting some value if I back at that price. Hopefully, as my experience gets greater, I'll be able to spot these 'wrong' prices with greater regularity. And, in time, I may even be able to say exactly what I think the price should be for a particular market.

I think knowing that you've got to look for wrong prices and that you need to bet only when you think you've found such a situation is the key to making money over the long term. The more accurately you identify those wrong prices, the more often you'll be locating value - even if you're not totally sure yourself exactly how much value there is at that price.

The point to the above post is most of you people wouldn't even know what price to put up for the event, so if you can't price the event yourself you don't know what the right odds should be so how do you know what is value if you can't price an event??


I always price up the NFL fixtures before checking the prices and I bet accordingly. That's kinda the point.

True lori but GCI has patented the process and called it the gold coast law of betting, what a smart arse[;)]

Yeah Lori, but you are rather shrewder than the majority on Betfair.

BFF


go lick yourself

he he

Sent you a PM you might like Bobbin (It crossed with your post).

That's great Lori. I've pasted your collected wisdom into a text file (along with the pics), and I'll have a good read through it all later on today.   Many thanks for doing that for me.

I bet lori is a more profitable sheep than goldcoastinvestor

Yes cat, I think so too, some reckon this thread is some sort of testament to a misconception that most customers don't know what value is, but what does come to the surface is that most do understand it, some can find it, and some imagine only they have it and everyone else is stupid, this cant be true as the whole concept of an exchange is to attract and promote profitable value, and then if you get good at it , to give most of it back to betfair, somehow this doesn't seem right does it but of well lets not keep bringing that up[;)]

Well you do seem to bring it up pretty much every time you post BFF!  (And that's several dozen times a day!!)

Yes, I have a hell of a memory don't I

Well I hope to back and lay on the hounds soon and I have to beat the track, the other dogs, the grader, the general market , the traders then pay comms then if I did make it big the pc1,2 and 3

A tall order for sure.

BFF, I don't understand why it isn't right to pay bf for using the site?

It is ok, just love posting [;)]

If I went to the casino and someone offered me 50/1 for the zero to come in next on the roulette wheel.

Would I back it? Yes.
Do I expect to win? No.

from page one.

superbly put!!

If someone offered me 11/10 red on a roulette table..
Would I back it ? Yes
Would I expect to win ? No.

This topic crops up with such regularity, its a wonder that there is anything new to say, but I'll try.

There is a clear paradox at the heart of this issue, which needs to be understood.

1. You cannot make a profit at gambling (or anything else for that matter) unless the price you get exceeds the price you pay.That is the simple definition of "profit."

2. Unlike other products, the gambler cannot tell whether on a single play, his judgment of the potential profit (value)was correct or not because the outcome, whilst determining the actual profit or loss, doesn't provide proof of the notional profit prior to the outcome. It is only in aggregate i.e after s large sample, that the cumulative profit/loss demonstrates whether the collective judgment was proven to be right or not.

3. Therefore, it follows, that any perceived "value" ( the existance of it and the amount of it) in a bet prior to the outcome can only be a matter of opinion no matter what the basis of that opinion, statistics or anything else. (Anyone arguing that a "real" probability must exist is arguing that the unknowable must exist, which is of no practical use to anyone.)

So, the paradox is that "value" can exist, must be pursued, but cannot be measured prior to the event and can only be recognised in aggregate. This makes it extremely hard to learn from experience and to correct the methodology for making judgments as to value. Given enough practice and time, skills do develop, but even the most experienced odds compiler can never be certain that he has his odds "right". But what he will realise, is that he cannot beat the market (wisdom of crowds) over every event every day so to profit, must focus a lesser number of events than does the market.

Yup, the problems of assessing success are fairly significant.

It's an argument towards markets and methods that produce larger volume imo. You can adjust sooner.

YOU CANT GET VALUE ON A ROULETTE WHEEL IN A CASINO ,AND YOU CANT GET VALUE ON A GAMEING MACHINE IN THE  BOOKIES ,YOU NEED LUCK AND EVENTUALLY THAT WILL RUN OUT ,

VALUEIDITY IS WHEN YOU GET SOMETHING CHEAPER THAN WHAT YOU PAY FOR IT

THATS IF ITS WORTH IT

WHEN YOU HAVE A GO ON THE LOTTERY THERES NO VALUE IN IT ,BUT IF THE LOTTO JACKPOT ROLLS OVER FOR SIX WEEKS THERES VALUE IN IT ,AS THERE IS MORE MONEY IN THE POT ,THAN TICKETS THAT CAN WIN IT

I HOPE THE ABOVE HELPS YOU IF YOU ARE UNINTELLIGENT

MAXIMUM YES I KNOW THAT ,BUT THERE IS VALUE IN THE POT ,AND ITS VALUE THAT YOUR LOOKING FOR

MAXIMUM THANK YOU ,BUT I AM EMPHASIZEING IT ,IVE WROTE IT IN CAPITAL LETTERS ,LIKE I WRITE EVERYTHING TO EMPHASIZE WHAT I SAY ,

BUT I STILL LIKE YOU

MAXIMUM THANK YOU ,BUT I AM EMPHASIZEING IT ,IVE WROTE IT IN CAPITAL LETTERS ,LIKE I WRITE EVERYTHING TO EMPHASIZE WHAT I SAY ,

BUT I STILL LIKE YOU

PS IM GOING TO BED NOW TO DREAM OF ,HOW TO SPOT A HORSE WITH VALUE ,WHEN YOUR AN IDIOT LIKE ME ,I ONCE LOOKED ON THE T V AND SAW TWO HORSES THAT DIDNT LOOK RIGHT TO ME AND THEY CAME FIRST AND SECOND

PS I LAID THEM BOTH ,I THINK THEY WERE TRAINED TO NOT LOOK RIGHT ,

GOOD NIGHT

Perhaps they were just cross-eyed, Diddy?