General Betting
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Hello guys!
I just want your insight on something that looks quite attractive to me in terms of betting over the long-term. What are your views on the following?
If I start with an initial bet of USD 100 and place ONLY one single bet (mostly live) at the odds of 1.10 today and bet with the winnings of USD 110 tomorrow and so on and so forth DAILY, choosing a SINGLE BET at the same odds of 1.10, over 80 days, should all of them win, it will win around USD 200 000.
Does that look too far-fetched?
I know that the key here is DISCIPLINE as well as LUCK!
But what’s the probability of the 1.10 odds not winning, barring the recent shocking performances by Real and Barca?
And yes, I’m not confining myself to football only. The bets can be placed on tennis, basketball, baseball etc.
Views as well as feedback from past experience most welcome!
I just want your insight on something that looks quite attractive to me in terms of betting over the long-term. What are your views on the following?
If I start with an initial bet of USD 100 and place ONLY one single bet (mostly live) at the odds of 1.10 today and bet with the winnings of USD 110 tomorrow and so on and so forth DAILY, choosing a SINGLE BET at the same odds of 1.10, over 80 days, should all of them win, it will win around USD 200 000.
Does that look too far-fetched?
I know that the key here is DISCIPLINE as well as LUCK!
But what’s the probability of the 1.10 odds not winning, barring the recent shocking performances by Real and Barca?
And yes, I’m not confining myself to football only. The bets can be placed on tennis, basketball, baseball etc.
Views as well as feedback from past experience most welcome!
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Replies: 11
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4 days max imo.
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Yes, far-fetched is an understatement.
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You're forgetting about commission. It takes more than 80 bets to reach 200k.
You're probably forgetting about the premium charge too. If you have played on enough markets over the years it will probably come into effect before you have reached your target. In the unlikely event you get somewhat close. Add yet more bets to reach your target, or switch to another place to place your bets towards the end. Unless you already are very very wealthy you would probably start hesitating placing these huge bets long before you have reached your target. Backing at 1.1 is only a good idea if the probability of winning the bet is greater than 90.2-90.5% depending on your commission level. Discipline is all good and well, but the real key besides luck is being able to judge when the probability is greater than 90.5%, and when it's not. Do you think there's an army of stupid gamblers who systematically offer 1.1 on big favourites when the fair odds should be lower than that? |
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Got my percentages wrong, hold on...
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Backing at 1.1 is only a good idea if the probability of winning the bet is greater than 91.075-91.324% depending on your commission level. Discipline is all good and well, but the real key besides luck is being able to judge when the probability is greater than 91.324%, and when it's not.
Sorry about the mistake, it's still early:) *cough* |
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Have a look at the "Over 0.5 Goals Challenge" in the Fottball Betting thread. It is imho impossible to get a 80 days run but why not work with a little bit money management and spread the risk. Another thing could be to match more than 20k on one market every day with odds you identify as value. There was a website calling 1goal.in about 2 years ago where the longest run for over 0.5 goals was over 100 matches with total just under 100k whe i remember right.
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Thnx, Mr Anderson!
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But what’s the probability of the 1.10 odds not winning
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Give up with this idea before you even start would be my advice.
I guarantee if you were already doing this challenge you would of backed real madrid or barcelona and lost all you're money Barcelona have already failed to win 3 times this season when odds on and madrid have failed in back to back games @ 1.25 I have no idea why people think they can have 80 winning bets in a row at any odds. Also there is no way you would continue to go all in once you got above £2000 never mind £20,000-£50,000 |
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Set yourself a much smaller target and only play up half the winnings each time.
At least that way when it does fail (which it will) you'll still have something to show for it. |
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If somebody has round about a 9-10% chance of losing on a bet, why on earth do they think they'd be able to win 80 in a row?
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