LAYING SHORT ODDS OPINIONS

That's a very sound strategy.  If you lay every favourite, you will lose money, but you're not going to lose a great deal. So you only need to add a decent selection process that allows you to cut out the ones that go in with a significant advantage but keep the ones that are only marginally better (if that) compared to their rivals, and you should be able to turn a profit.

Laying isn't that easy, especially if you're laying faves (it's always annoying when they win, even given that you have to expect them to win every so often), but from my experience it's much easier to make money overall laying rather than backing. You've got a whole field (bar one) on your side, so if you can find races where several horses could win, you've got the basis of a winning strategy.

I'd be quite interested to see how much the favourite's odds get bashed down to in races that directly follow those where a much-fancied shorty has been turned over. I bet there'll be plenty of mug money pouring into those races.

ive been reading the paulme laying thread it makes intresting reading im o going to read the rest now

Well just as long as you're not taking advice from Paul himself..  That would be a very bad move!

no i find your advice useful

This post should be under a new topic.

when is the right time to back/lay your selection.


Lets say you've settled on a bet and the side you wanted to back is $1.75

Do you back them now at that price or do you wait a while to get on at a different price??

lets say your team has just conceded a try and is down 6 nil and the price has gone out to $2.10

Would you still back them in this situation, given that regardless of what has unfolded you were going to back them at the start of the match??


Or you were going to lay a team at $1.50 and they have gone 6-0 in front and are now paying $1.30 do you still lay them knowing they are in front??


I have watched many a game were a side is up by 2-4 points with less than 10 minutes to go and are paying $1.20 to win only for them to get rolled.

My advice is if you want to lay short prices wait until a game is in the last 10 mins and is still winnable by the trailling side scoring a try.

Point in hand.

west Tigers V warriors last week.

Tigers were $1.10 with 5 minutes on the clock up by 2 points.

warriors scored a last grasp try to win.

you'll pick up many winning lays with this scenario, you might only get 1 or 2 bets a round but chances are you'll make money over time doing it.

Yeah, a lot of sense to that. Like tennis betting, where one player is a set and a break up in a 3 setter. Their odds will generally be 1.10 or so at this point. But if they wobble and/or the other player starts finding their feet, one break of serve can turn the game on its head.  You can't simply lay any player who's around 1.10, but if you see signs the momentum is shifting, you can get some very short odds laying the player in the lead, even though the match is still very much in the balance.  (I've written about this at greater length on other threads.)   You'll get plenty of small losing bets, but the few winners will be sizeable, and will more than make up for this.

you say you get plenty of losing bets do you think there's a psychological barrier to overcome when batting for value at odds against say youll get plenty of lsoing bets but it is in the human mind to win so when you see a string of losers even at valuble odds and you see your balance depleting can it put you off


aslo the opposite with backing low laying high you go on a great winning streak think youve cracked it then the value aspect gets you and you lose like say a weeks worth of work in one day that can be sole destroying to people

Yeah definitely. I do find Tennis trading a bit up and down. You have several days where the short-priced lays are losing and it feels like you're in a bit of a trough. Then, wham, you get several really interesting reversals to play and suddenly your money's right up and you feel like a genius.

Laying can also be quite tricky. Today I got hit by a lay bet winning first UK race out. I next made a slightly silly bet and doubled that loss, so I then gave it a bit of a rest until this evening. Tonight I tried to watch the markets fairly casually (ie, not hunting ferociously for a bet with which I would make back my losses!), found a few small bets which won and made back two thirds of the afternoon's losses. But then, last race of the night, another lay came along and smacked me in the head again, and that wiped out the money I had made that evening. So, all in all, quite a frustrating day from the lays.  Usually I'll lay a few races without incident, and I can go several days without one of my lays winning. (Up to the last 24 hours, my last winning lay was last week.)   However, every now and again you get hit by one or two that go against you. And because it wipes out the results of several individual bets, it tends to feel more of a defeat.  It's not, as long as you're making money over time on your lays. But it often feels that way.

So, yeah, lays do need a different mindset. My bread and butter is safe backing the place bets in the US horses. If I pick those carefully, I rarely lose two in a row, so I can gradually build up the profits that way. Even there, though, you have down periods where not many are presenting themselves - I find a lot more viable lay bets than I do place bets to back.   I guess there are advantages and disadvantages to all ways of betting, and different ways to approach them mentally. It's best to keep different approaches separate as much as possible.

Just to clarify, the laying I was talking about in the 2nd paragraph is what I'd class as normal laying - where you're laying a horse, for example, at 4.0, 5.0 or 6.0 - as opposed to short-priced laying, where I'm looking for 1.1, 1.2 etc.

Very good reply LB. I go in to practically all my bets with a trading mindset and it is only since I accepted the small losses that I was able to move forward. Once pyschologically you can accept this it will be for the better. I will only bet in an in play market to allow me to hedge/change strategy. Also I am not greedy. I try various strategies - football - often back a 2-2 score and you will be able to trade a profit on more occasions than you would think. Also the 0-0 in Prem. There are very useful stats on Racing and Football Outlook giving all correct score sats in each division. Nil Nil currently top of the list in Prem and there is a surprisingly high 2-2 score rate in Championship. Another take is looking at time of goal stats. I will often back over 2.5 well in to the game at higher odds even if it is 1-0 or 0-1 around 60 minutes. Often you are looking for 1 goal to trade out not the full amount. My examples here are last night backed high odds over 2.5 Brighton Liverpool winning the bet but on the flip side had a dabble on Real Madrid game over 1.5 goals 10 minutes from time - a losing bet but not much liability. Again I backed the 2-2 Valencia Barcelona but was out of the bet at half time greening out. Yes I do have lots of small losses but I have learnt to cope with that as i have seen a gradual rise in profit over long term.
I find with horses that backing at higher prices to lay off before the off is the best that works for me but not guaranteed. Good Luck.