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I had a critic when I posted ratings on system just over 2 years ago........................
To be honest I did not really know how to use my system's ratings of races......
It has taken years to develop a system......and there have been many "problems" ...HURDLES ....to over come......
The guy in cheap seats.....heavily pestered me on thread re the ratings.......To be fair to him/she, I did not know how to use them. I knew they were up to a very high standard, but that is all I knew.
I have now analysed all races rated in 2008 and so far the STRATEGIES for BOTH BACKING and LAYING then would be succesful.
I am posting the ratings for races rated in 2009, when my critic first appeared on thread..................
Now the question I pose to you wise ones in cheap seats is ........can you see the strategies that work......either BACKING or LAYING from ratings and results below....?
I'm telling you now that it is not "easy" to see stratgies from ratings.......................BUT I HAVE EM ( taken years to arrive at em ....but the results are ...."pretty good" on applying set strategies to races within certain criteria.
Some people GIVE UP the search for HOLY GRAIL................I am not one !
Here are ratings with some information on races for 4th MARCH 2009.................plus the comments from my critic ( NOT MUQBIL....AS HE IS A VERY WISE PERON ON FORUM)
Can you spot the STRATEGIES that "work"? IT IS NOT EASY , AS ANYONE COULD DO IT IF IT WAS !
Reason for posting this thread is to counteract anyone GIVING UP on trying to find THG re HORSES............
THIS WAS FIRST DAY MY MAIN CRITIC CAME ON THREAD...
===================================================================
4TH MARCH 2009
CATTERICK
16:20 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 1f 110y Class 4 12 runners Good Good to Firm IP
1,Clear The Way 17-2
2,The Artful Fox 3RD 25-1 SP 1&3:£21.30 WITH FAV
3,Kinfayre Boy 12
4,Pendle Forest 16
5,Garleton 1ST 2-1 F
6,Bleu Pois 8
7,Jethro Tull 6 2NDF
-------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
8,General Hardi 2ND 12-1 2&3:£35.50 WITH HIGH ODDS
9,I'm Your Man 16
10,Glacial Rambler 18
11,Ajay 17-2
12,Paddymcgintysgoat 40
17:20 Mares' Standard Nh Flat Race (conds/amateurs') 4-6yo 2m Class 6 13 runners Good Good to Firm IP race not qualifying 1
1,Lady Bluesky 2ND 7-2 JF Ex £17.90 CSF £14.22
2,Carrosa Rose 14
3,Whirlijig 3RD 8-1 2&3:£5.10 1&3:£6.10
4,Roses 1ST 7-2 JF
5,Iwantclosure 14
6,Samaret 17-2
7,Mizvot 20
------------------------------------------------------------------------ NON-QUALIFYING RACE
8,Plum Mac 25
9,Crystal Witch 14
10,Nightboat To Cairo 250
11,Carnival Fair 33
12,Lilla Sophia 33
13,Can't Remember 9-2
FONTWELL
15:00 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 4f Class 5 9 runners Good to Soft
1,Ballyaahbutt 12
2,Perange 5
3,Rosoff 2ND 7-1 1&2:£7.00 WITH 2ND FAV
4,That's For Sure 7-2f
5,Killfinnan Castle 1ST 4-1 2ND F Ex £28.70 CSF £31.66
-------------------------------Ex £28.70 CSF £31.66
6,Tosula 3RD 7-1 1&3:£5.20 WITH 2ND FAV
7,Present Oriented 20
8,Dallool 7
9,Something Cristal 20
16:00 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 2f 110y Class 4 7 runners Good to Soft
1,Valentia Island 3RD 11-4 2ND F
2,Hazeljack 2ND 8-1 2&3:£6.10 WITH 2ND FAV
3,Sesame Rambler 1ST 9-1 1&3:£2.90 WITH 2ND FAV
4,Le Briar Soul 5-2F
-------------------------------------------------- Straight Forecast: £73.39 Tricast: £251.18 Exacta: £46.90
5,Prey Bird 4
6,Amoreigh N/R
7,Lahinch Lad N/R
8,Monzon 7
9,That's An Idea 16
17:00 Standard Open Nh Flat Race 4-6yo 2m 2f 110y Class 6 13 runners Good to Soft
1,Alexander Beetle N/R
2,Saltara 12
3,Lillinga 20
4,Lady Zaha 50
5,City Theatre 1ST 4-1 3RD F
6,The Red Laird 3RD 17-2
7,Niceboy 16
8,Capital City 50
----------------------------------------------------------------- NON-QUALIFYING RACE
9,Legal Bid 2ND 2-1 F
10,Adamo 50
11,Forest Griffin 100
12,Gratification 5-2 2NDF
13,Presenting Diva N/R
14,So Regal 66
15,My Only Boy 100
LINGFIELD
14:10 Apprentice Handicap 4yo plus 1m Class 6 11 runners Standard
1,Cavalry Guard 3RD 7-2F
2,Sharps Gold 16
3,Alfredtheordinary 1ST 6-1 JT 3RD F
4,Bold Diva 6
5,Copper King 15-2
6,Softly Killing Me 16
-----NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE Straight Forecast: £96.08 Tricast: £393.61 Exacta: £154.80
7,Gingko Lady 20
8,Lancaster Lad 15-2
9,Fairly Honest 11-2 2NDF
10,Suhayl Star 2&3:£12.70 WITH FAV 2ND 16-1 1&2:£28.80 WITH JOINT 2ND FAV/3RD FAV
11,Safe Investment 25
15:10 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 5f Class 5 8 runners Standard
1,Sir Liam 3rd 4-1 2ND F
2,Lapina 11-2
3,Generous Lad 14
4,Rough Sketch 11-4F
5,Zalkani 2nd 13-2 2&3:£4.00 WITH 2ND FAV
---------------------------------------------------------------
6,Stoop To Conquer 5
7,Spiritonthemount 25
8,Shanafarahan 1st 9-1 1&3:£8.30 WITH 2ND FAV
16:10 Handicap 3yo only 7f Class 6 9 runners Standard
1,Green Agenda 1ST 5-1 JT 3RD FAV 1&3:£5.20 WITH 2ND FAV
2,Saints Bay 5
3,Pedregal 9
4,Buckle Up 12
5,Sunshine Ellie 12
------------------------Straight Forecast: £128.74 Tricast: £682.42 Exacta: £191.40
6,Miss Tikitiboo 3RD 9-2 2NDF
7,Daily Double 8
8,Private Passion 3 F
9,Bold Ring 1&2 £34.80 WITH 3RD FAV 2ND 28-1 2&3:£25.00 WITH 2ND FAV
16:40 Handicap 4yo plus 5f Class 4 5 runners Standard
1,Chjimes 1ST 11-8F
2,Fromsong 9-2
3,Merlin's Dancer 4
-------------------------------------------------------------
4,Qadar 2ND 4-1
5,Wibbadune 8
17:10 Handicap 3yo only 1m 2f Class 4 6 runners Standard
1,Ladies Dancing 3RD 100-30
2,Sgt Roberts 12
3,Fong's Alibi 3 2NDF
4,Lord Chancellor 1ST 9-4F
--------------------------------------------------------------
5,Alexander Gulch 2ND 11-2
6,Orsippus 6
WOLVERHAMPTON
19:20 Handicap 4yo plus 6f Class 5 10 runners Standard
1,Back In The Red 14
2,Street Power 2ND 11-10 FStraight Forecast: £17.86 Tricast: £100.62 Exacta: £39.90
3,Flying Valentino 50
4,Smirfys Systems 9-2 2NDF
5,Storey Hill 28
6,Stonecrabstomorrow 1ST 8-1 SP Swingers:1&2:£4.80, 2&3:£11.40, 1&3:£21.30
------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
7,Albero di Giuda N/R
8,Gwilym 20
9,Russian Symphony 13-2
10,Red Cape 3RD 10-1
11,Know No Fear 14
20:20 Handicap 3yo only 1m 1f 103y Class 6 11 runners StandardStraight Forecast: £62.56 Tricast: £473.41 Exacta: £34.00
1,Duke of Normandy 2ND 12-1 2&3:£0.00
2,Barcode 13-2 3RD F
3,Tae Kwon Do 3RD 8-1 1&3:£12.40 WITH 2ND FAV
4,Turn To Dreams 12
5,High Cross 1ST 5-1 SP 2ND F1&2:£18.60
6,Amazing Blue Sky 8
---------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
7,Graycliffe 16
8,Dark Oasis 3-1F
9,Fleur de Lion 25
10,Dead Cat Bounce 14
11,Tiffany Lady N/R
12,Kneesy Earsy Nosey 14
20:50 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 1f Class 6 12 runners Standard Straight Forecast: £73.67 Tricast: £1351.48 Exacta: £49.50
1,Amber Moon 1ST 9-2 3RD FAV Straight Forecast: £62.56 Tricast: £473.41 Exacta: £34.00
2,Miss Clarice 3RD 20-1 1&3 £17.20 WITH 3RD FAV
3,Whodunit 3 2ND F
4,Karmei 9
5,Dancing Duo 2ND 16-1 1&2 Not won, WITH 3RD FAV
6,Tobago Reef 33
7,Carnival Dream 50
--------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE Swingers:1&2:£0.00, 2&3:£0.00, 1&3:£17.20
8,Mont Cervin 28
9,Tabulate 11-2
10,Trees of Green 5-2F
11,Almora Guru 14
12,Winged Farasi N/R
13,Mays Louise 33
21:20 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 4f Class 3 7 runners Standard
1,La Estrella 9-4F
2,Swiss Act 2ND 7-1 Ex £34.90 CSF £35.45
3,Cape Colony 9-2
4,Distinctive Image 1ST 9-2SP CO3F
-------------------------------------------------------------Swingers:1&2:£3.30, 2&3:£4.10, 1&3:£2.60
5,Maslak 16
6,Humble Opinion 3RD 9-2 Straight Forecast: £35.45 Tricast: £149.17 Exacta: £34.90
7,Count Trevisio 8
===================================================================================
The bumper races are not QUALIFYING RACES so ignore.
The 7.20. 8.20 and 8.50 races are not QUALIFYING RACES for BACKING STRATEGIES.
STRATEGY QUALIFYING BACKS WINNERS AT SP ODDS PROFIT/(LOSS) AT LEVEL STAKES
ONE 0
TWO 1
THREE 1
TOTALS 2 LOSS 2 POINTS
CUMULATIVE POSITION
QUALIFYING BETS 8 CUMULATIVE PROFIT 18 POINTS
AT BF SP THE CUMULATIVE WINNERS ODDS WERE 28.71.
DFCIRONMAN 01 Apr 16:53
Technically the 4.10 race on DAY 1 ( 3rd march 2009) was not a QUALIFYING race for BACKING STRATEGIES ....so the profits should read
DAY + 11 points
DAY 2 ( - 5 ) points
Cumulative Profit + 6 points
================================================================================================
goodbye1 04 Mar 20:24
VERY VERY SAD
DFCIRONMAN 04 Mar 23:36
Muqbil 04 Mar 16:59
DFC, you are obviously passionate about your ratings but I honestly don't see where this is going?
You could make a profit for a few months and still not know whether the ratings actually mean anything.
I have been looking forward to your system for ages and wish you well and hope you make profit, if you do I fear it will be as a result of luck rather than any ratings.
==========================================================
Only 2nd day M ........and i did state at start of thread I NEED to get up to speed on current racing ...etc
Also, I need time to get the 4 main BETTING STRATEGIES imbeded into my noggin ..........as i was not a LAYER , then it is "foreign" to me and the mindset is totally different from being a BACKER ......
As I obviously know what the system is good at .....and know , through race /ratings analysis, what strategies do work and what ones don't................. then all I can say is that from last two days races the SYTEM is doing what i want it to do.....and the 4 STRATEGIES are fine too .....just me that is not used to operating with such BETTING STRATEGIES that i need to get adept at using.
All the races stats from over 1,250 races rated last year indicate ....
1. 72% of winners were in top 50% + 1 of field.......for all race types ...ie not for certain types only.
2. high odds winners were , from memory, with 46% of qualifying selections ( ie 46% of total number in fields ) achieved 56% of the total high odds winners. THIS INDICATES AN EDGE IMO. covering all races without being SELECTIVE.
....
3. From detailed analysis of how the 4 main BETTING STRATEGIES would have done on rated races ....1,250 at least done......all of them would produce a good profit with high ROI.
I do not believe ...naturally that the above stats are "lucky" ...but down to the system doing what it was mainly devised to do ....get high odds horses that might win in top half of ratings.
As i know that I / the system is only getting 72% winners in top 50% + 1 of field, then i even have a strategy to cover the 28% winners that I get/the system gets wrong.......it/I get it wrong as some of factors applied are based on certain factors been deemed to be "right"...........and If i/the system gets those facors "wrong" ....and i only do that 28% of time approx..............then there are reasons why this other strategy works.........and works to high ROI.
It may from an outsider's perspective that the ratings appear a mish mash from race to race....but the stats support the sytem is operating to good standard sufficient generally to make a good leve of profit.........
As there have been few qualifying races for most of strategies over ONLY TWO DAYS ....then this combined with me getting used to those strategies etc...making mistakes ...is just part of the learning process for me.
I'm confident the 4 STRATEGIES work allied to system ratings.....................too early for anyone to deem anything from TWO DAYS .....wait til end of MONTH then by then you should see profits getting more regularly made ...and losses occurring less frequently .....as long as profit more than loss that will be main thing ....and it is likely that i can achieve 3/4 points MIMIMUM per day on average over long period........ the ERRORS should get less and less as i learn etc.......and more and more qualifying bets will arise ......so I'm still optimistic AND REALISTIC re it being early days ....with best yet to come.
So will plough on and try to get better at applying strategies to a system that works generally to a high standard ......"good" is perhaps an understatement ]:)
As for lee h2 ....he ain't got a clue about how system's work ......certainly by cheap comments from cheap seats he should only comment on something he knows about rather than just be a parrot repeating the same nonsense all the time.............................critisise my football bets ...no probs there , as i admit i just ad-lib there ....but for Pete's sake and mine ....stop repeating same rubbish all the time.
ONLY PROFIT OVER ALONG PERIOD WILL BE LIKELY TO SATISFY YOU M THAT THERE IS A SOUNDLY BASED SYSTEM DOING ITS JOB.......only a few high odds ones threatened to win in BRITAIN today ...and system had most of em in top rated ones....so that is what is devised mainly for.....so watch AND ALLOW FOR ME TO GET USED TO APPLYING STRATEGIES.......
Better watch some of my football bets nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww....need BOCA to win now as main bet was DRAW/BOCA ......
GN the noooooooooo and thanks for contribution M....always good to hear your views ..hope naps will keep coming in for you .......they better , as I'm now viewing 12 approx races a day .....so bound to get more and more frequent winners at reasonable odds .....so will be trying to get to PREMIER before end of year .....as only looking at say 1/2 races for last 5/6 months ....my naps in comp have been abysmal........................not using system though ]:)...just guessing :D
GN the nooooooooooooooo
==========================================================
Any views/ideas re strategies that "work" either BACKING or LAYING would be appreciated ( I have devised my own ones ....but others ides/views would be interesting to hear....whether GOOD or BAD)
The thread might spark some interesting views re RATINGS/ideas etc etc etc ....so thought I'd post this to stimulate the brain cells.........for me!
G M the noooooooooooooooooo
=======================================================
BTW ignore all the NON QUALIFYING c ra p I posted originally....as total irrelevant to strategies devised!
To be honest I did not really know how to use my system's ratings of races......
It has taken years to develop a system......and there have been many "problems" ...HURDLES ....to over come......
The guy in cheap seats.....heavily pestered me on thread re the ratings.......To be fair to him/she, I did not know how to use them. I knew they were up to a very high standard, but that is all I knew.
I have now analysed all races rated in 2008 and so far the STRATEGIES for BOTH BACKING and LAYING then would be succesful.
I am posting the ratings for races rated in 2009, when my critic first appeared on thread..................
Now the question I pose to you wise ones in cheap seats is ........can you see the strategies that work......either BACKING or LAYING from ratings and results below....?
I'm telling you now that it is not "easy" to see stratgies from ratings.......................BUT I HAVE EM ( taken years to arrive at em ....but the results are ...."pretty good" on applying set strategies to races within certain criteria.
Some people GIVE UP the search for HOLY GRAIL................I am not one !
Here are ratings with some information on races for 4th MARCH 2009.................plus the comments from my critic ( NOT MUQBIL....AS HE IS A VERY WISE PERON ON FORUM)
Can you spot the STRATEGIES that "work"? IT IS NOT EASY , AS ANYONE COULD DO IT IF IT WAS !
Reason for posting this thread is to counteract anyone GIVING UP on trying to find THG re HORSES............
THIS WAS FIRST DAY MY MAIN CRITIC CAME ON THREAD...
===================================================================
4TH MARCH 2009
CATTERICK
16:20 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 1f 110y Class 4 12 runners Good Good to Firm IP
1,Clear The Way 17-2
2,The Artful Fox 3RD 25-1 SP 1&3:£21.30 WITH FAV
3,Kinfayre Boy 12
4,Pendle Forest 16
5,Garleton 1ST 2-1 F
6,Bleu Pois 8
7,Jethro Tull 6 2NDF
-------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
8,General Hardi 2ND 12-1 2&3:£35.50 WITH HIGH ODDS
9,I'm Your Man 16
10,Glacial Rambler 18
11,Ajay 17-2
12,Paddymcgintysgoat 40
17:20 Mares' Standard Nh Flat Race (conds/amateurs') 4-6yo 2m Class 6 13 runners Good Good to Firm IP race not qualifying 1
1,Lady Bluesky 2ND 7-2 JF Ex £17.90 CSF £14.22
2,Carrosa Rose 14
3,Whirlijig 3RD 8-1 2&3:£5.10 1&3:£6.10
4,Roses 1ST 7-2 JF
5,Iwantclosure 14
6,Samaret 17-2
7,Mizvot 20
------------------------------------------------------------------------ NON-QUALIFYING RACE
8,Plum Mac 25
9,Crystal Witch 14
10,Nightboat To Cairo 250
11,Carnival Fair 33
12,Lilla Sophia 33
13,Can't Remember 9-2
FONTWELL
15:00 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 4f Class 5 9 runners Good to Soft
1,Ballyaahbutt 12
2,Perange 5
3,Rosoff 2ND 7-1 1&2:£7.00 WITH 2ND FAV
4,That's For Sure 7-2f
5,Killfinnan Castle 1ST 4-1 2ND F Ex £28.70 CSF £31.66
-------------------------------Ex £28.70 CSF £31.66
6,Tosula 3RD 7-1 1&3:£5.20 WITH 2ND FAV
7,Present Oriented 20
8,Dallool 7
9,Something Cristal 20
16:00 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 2f 110y Class 4 7 runners Good to Soft
1,Valentia Island 3RD 11-4 2ND F
2,Hazeljack 2ND 8-1 2&3:£6.10 WITH 2ND FAV
3,Sesame Rambler 1ST 9-1 1&3:£2.90 WITH 2ND FAV
4,Le Briar Soul 5-2F
-------------------------------------------------- Straight Forecast: £73.39 Tricast: £251.18 Exacta: £46.90
5,Prey Bird 4
6,Amoreigh N/R
7,Lahinch Lad N/R
8,Monzon 7
9,That's An Idea 16
17:00 Standard Open Nh Flat Race 4-6yo 2m 2f 110y Class 6 13 runners Good to Soft
1,Alexander Beetle N/R
2,Saltara 12
3,Lillinga 20
4,Lady Zaha 50
5,City Theatre 1ST 4-1 3RD F
6,The Red Laird 3RD 17-2
7,Niceboy 16
8,Capital City 50
----------------------------------------------------------------- NON-QUALIFYING RACE
9,Legal Bid 2ND 2-1 F
10,Adamo 50
11,Forest Griffin 100
12,Gratification 5-2 2NDF
13,Presenting Diva N/R
14,So Regal 66
15,My Only Boy 100
LINGFIELD
14:10 Apprentice Handicap 4yo plus 1m Class 6 11 runners Standard
1,Cavalry Guard 3RD 7-2F
2,Sharps Gold 16
3,Alfredtheordinary 1ST 6-1 JT 3RD F
4,Bold Diva 6
5,Copper King 15-2
6,Softly Killing Me 16
-----NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE Straight Forecast: £96.08 Tricast: £393.61 Exacta: £154.80
7,Gingko Lady 20
8,Lancaster Lad 15-2
9,Fairly Honest 11-2 2NDF
10,Suhayl Star 2&3:£12.70 WITH FAV 2ND 16-1 1&2:£28.80 WITH JOINT 2ND FAV/3RD FAV
11,Safe Investment 25
15:10 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 5f Class 5 8 runners Standard
1,Sir Liam 3rd 4-1 2ND F
2,Lapina 11-2
3,Generous Lad 14
4,Rough Sketch 11-4F
5,Zalkani 2nd 13-2 2&3:£4.00 WITH 2ND FAV
---------------------------------------------------------------
6,Stoop To Conquer 5
7,Spiritonthemount 25
8,Shanafarahan 1st 9-1 1&3:£8.30 WITH 2ND FAV
16:10 Handicap 3yo only 7f Class 6 9 runners Standard
1,Green Agenda 1ST 5-1 JT 3RD FAV 1&3:£5.20 WITH 2ND FAV
2,Saints Bay 5
3,Pedregal 9
4,Buckle Up 12
5,Sunshine Ellie 12
------------------------Straight Forecast: £128.74 Tricast: £682.42 Exacta: £191.40
6,Miss Tikitiboo 3RD 9-2 2NDF
7,Daily Double 8
8,Private Passion 3 F
9,Bold Ring 1&2 £34.80 WITH 3RD FAV 2ND 28-1 2&3:£25.00 WITH 2ND FAV
16:40 Handicap 4yo plus 5f Class 4 5 runners Standard
1,Chjimes 1ST 11-8F
2,Fromsong 9-2
3,Merlin's Dancer 4
-------------------------------------------------------------
4,Qadar 2ND 4-1
5,Wibbadune 8
17:10 Handicap 3yo only 1m 2f Class 4 6 runners Standard
1,Ladies Dancing 3RD 100-30
2,Sgt Roberts 12
3,Fong's Alibi 3 2NDF
4,Lord Chancellor 1ST 9-4F
--------------------------------------------------------------
5,Alexander Gulch 2ND 11-2
6,Orsippus 6
WOLVERHAMPTON
19:20 Handicap 4yo plus 6f Class 5 10 runners Standard
1,Back In The Red 14
2,Street Power 2ND 11-10 FStraight Forecast: £17.86 Tricast: £100.62 Exacta: £39.90
3,Flying Valentino 50
4,Smirfys Systems 9-2 2NDF
5,Storey Hill 28
6,Stonecrabstomorrow 1ST 8-1 SP Swingers:1&2:£4.80, 2&3:£11.40, 1&3:£21.30
------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
7,Albero di Giuda N/R
8,Gwilym 20
9,Russian Symphony 13-2
10,Red Cape 3RD 10-1
11,Know No Fear 14
20:20 Handicap 3yo only 1m 1f 103y Class 6 11 runners StandardStraight Forecast: £62.56 Tricast: £473.41 Exacta: £34.00
1,Duke of Normandy 2ND 12-1 2&3:£0.00
2,Barcode 13-2 3RD F
3,Tae Kwon Do 3RD 8-1 1&3:£12.40 WITH 2ND FAV
4,Turn To Dreams 12
5,High Cross 1ST 5-1 SP 2ND F1&2:£18.60
6,Amazing Blue Sky 8
---------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE
7,Graycliffe 16
8,Dark Oasis 3-1F
9,Fleur de Lion 25
10,Dead Cat Bounce 14
11,Tiffany Lady N/R
12,Kneesy Earsy Nosey 14
20:50 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 1f Class 6 12 runners Standard Straight Forecast: £73.67 Tricast: £1351.48 Exacta: £49.50
1,Amber Moon 1ST 9-2 3RD FAV Straight Forecast: £62.56 Tricast: £473.41 Exacta: £34.00
2,Miss Clarice 3RD 20-1 1&3 £17.20 WITH 3RD FAV
3,Whodunit 3 2ND F
4,Karmei 9
5,Dancing Duo 2ND 16-1 1&2 Not won, WITH 3RD FAV
6,Tobago Reef 33
7,Carnival Dream 50
--------NON-QUALIFYING BACKING RACE BUT QUALIFYING LAY RACE Swingers:1&2:£0.00, 2&3:£0.00, 1&3:£17.20
8,Mont Cervin 28
9,Tabulate 11-2
10,Trees of Green 5-2F
11,Almora Guru 14
12,Winged Farasi N/R
13,Mays Louise 33
21:20 Handicap 4yo plus 1m 4f Class 3 7 runners Standard
1,La Estrella 9-4F
2,Swiss Act 2ND 7-1 Ex £34.90 CSF £35.45
3,Cape Colony 9-2
4,Distinctive Image 1ST 9-2SP CO3F
-------------------------------------------------------------Swingers:1&2:£3.30, 2&3:£4.10, 1&3:£2.60
5,Maslak 16
6,Humble Opinion 3RD 9-2 Straight Forecast: £35.45 Tricast: £149.17 Exacta: £34.90
7,Count Trevisio 8
===================================================================================
The bumper races are not QUALIFYING RACES so ignore.
The 7.20. 8.20 and 8.50 races are not QUALIFYING RACES for BACKING STRATEGIES.
STRATEGY QUALIFYING BACKS WINNERS AT SP ODDS PROFIT/(LOSS) AT LEVEL STAKES
ONE 0
TWO 1
THREE 1
TOTALS 2 LOSS 2 POINTS
CUMULATIVE POSITION
QUALIFYING BETS 8 CUMULATIVE PROFIT 18 POINTS
AT BF SP THE CUMULATIVE WINNERS ODDS WERE 28.71.
DFCIRONMAN 01 Apr 16:53
Technically the 4.10 race on DAY 1 ( 3rd march 2009) was not a QUALIFYING race for BACKING STRATEGIES ....so the profits should read
DAY + 11 points
DAY 2 ( - 5 ) points
Cumulative Profit + 6 points
================================================================================================
goodbye1 04 Mar 20:24
VERY VERY SAD
DFCIRONMAN 04 Mar 23:36
Muqbil 04 Mar 16:59
DFC, you are obviously passionate about your ratings but I honestly don't see where this is going?
You could make a profit for a few months and still not know whether the ratings actually mean anything.
I have been looking forward to your system for ages and wish you well and hope you make profit, if you do I fear it will be as a result of luck rather than any ratings.
==========================================================
Only 2nd day M ........and i did state at start of thread I NEED to get up to speed on current racing ...etc
Also, I need time to get the 4 main BETTING STRATEGIES imbeded into my noggin ..........as i was not a LAYER , then it is "foreign" to me and the mindset is totally different from being a BACKER ......
As I obviously know what the system is good at .....and know , through race /ratings analysis, what strategies do work and what ones don't................. then all I can say is that from last two days races the SYTEM is doing what i want it to do.....and the 4 STRATEGIES are fine too .....just me that is not used to operating with such BETTING STRATEGIES that i need to get adept at using.
All the races stats from over 1,250 races rated last year indicate ....
1. 72% of winners were in top 50% + 1 of field.......for all race types ...ie not for certain types only.
2. high odds winners were , from memory, with 46% of qualifying selections ( ie 46% of total number in fields ) achieved 56% of the total high odds winners. THIS INDICATES AN EDGE IMO. covering all races without being SELECTIVE.
....
3. From detailed analysis of how the 4 main BETTING STRATEGIES would have done on rated races ....1,250 at least done......all of them would produce a good profit with high ROI.
I do not believe ...naturally that the above stats are "lucky" ...but down to the system doing what it was mainly devised to do ....get high odds horses that might win in top half of ratings.
As i know that I / the system is only getting 72% winners in top 50% + 1 of field, then i even have a strategy to cover the 28% winners that I get/the system gets wrong.......it/I get it wrong as some of factors applied are based on certain factors been deemed to be "right"...........and If i/the system gets those facors "wrong" ....and i only do that 28% of time approx..............then there are reasons why this other strategy works.........and works to high ROI.
It may from an outsider's perspective that the ratings appear a mish mash from race to race....but the stats support the sytem is operating to good standard sufficient generally to make a good leve of profit.........
As there have been few qualifying races for most of strategies over ONLY TWO DAYS ....then this combined with me getting used to those strategies etc...making mistakes ...is just part of the learning process for me.
I'm confident the 4 STRATEGIES work allied to system ratings.....................too early for anyone to deem anything from TWO DAYS .....wait til end of MONTH then by then you should see profits getting more regularly made ...and losses occurring less frequently .....as long as profit more than loss that will be main thing ....and it is likely that i can achieve 3/4 points MIMIMUM per day on average over long period........ the ERRORS should get less and less as i learn etc.......and more and more qualifying bets will arise ......so I'm still optimistic AND REALISTIC re it being early days ....with best yet to come.
So will plough on and try to get better at applying strategies to a system that works generally to a high standard ......"good" is perhaps an understatement ]:)
As for lee h2 ....he ain't got a clue about how system's work ......certainly by cheap comments from cheap seats he should only comment on something he knows about rather than just be a parrot repeating the same nonsense all the time.............................critisise my football bets ...no probs there , as i admit i just ad-lib there ....but for Pete's sake and mine ....stop repeating same rubbish all the time.
ONLY PROFIT OVER ALONG PERIOD WILL BE LIKELY TO SATISFY YOU M THAT THERE IS A SOUNDLY BASED SYSTEM DOING ITS JOB.......only a few high odds ones threatened to win in BRITAIN today ...and system had most of em in top rated ones....so that is what is devised mainly for.....so watch AND ALLOW FOR ME TO GET USED TO APPLYING STRATEGIES.......
Better watch some of my football bets nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww....need BOCA to win now as main bet was DRAW/BOCA ......
GN the noooooooooo and thanks for contribution M....always good to hear your views ..hope naps will keep coming in for you .......they better , as I'm now viewing 12 approx races a day .....so bound to get more and more frequent winners at reasonable odds .....so will be trying to get to PREMIER before end of year .....as only looking at say 1/2 races for last 5/6 months ....my naps in comp have been abysmal........................not using system though ]:)...just guessing :D
GN the nooooooooooooooo
==========================================================
Any views/ideas re strategies that "work" either BACKING or LAYING would be appreciated ( I have devised my own ones ....but others ides/views would be interesting to hear....whether GOOD or BAD)
The thread might spark some interesting views re RATINGS/ideas etc etc etc ....so thought I'd post this to stimulate the brain cells.........for me!
G M the noooooooooooooooooo
=======================================================
BTW ignore all the NON QUALIFYING c ra p I posted originally....as total irrelevant to strategies devised!
Show More
Okay DFC. I obviously didn't know what ingredients you had mixed in to create your wonderful broth, but that makes sense.
Just out of interest, what are you expecting anyone else here to be able to add to your comments? (That's not intended to be snarky - I'm just wondering what types of insight you might be after?)
Just out of interest, what are you expecting anyone else here to be able to add to your comments? (That's not intended to be snarky - I'm just wondering what types of insight you might be after?)
I started the thread in pure reaction to the other thread where someone was GIVING UP the search for the "grail"
Mind you the fact I had imbibed "a few" drinks that night/morning probably FIRED me up to havea thread to counter the other thread !
Trying to give "hope" to those in cheap seats!!!!!
You never know what will be posted on such a thread as this.........I do know that I will complete the CHECK on STRATEGY on all races rated just to see how much profit/ROI might be made ....( I HAVE TO WAIT ANYWAY ON FRIEND COMPLETING HIS PART RE GETTING SYSTEM FIT FOR USE AGAIN.....SO AT LEAST I AM DOING SOMETHING USEFUL WHILST WAITING....)
Getting a bit knackered now ....but thanks for your posts LB and A.....always some "thought" given to them....Pretty sure the lay favs angle below the line won't work though .....but will keep eye on results as I do CHECK....
Time to chill out now ...and FOOTBALL on...Need a goal in COLON game
G M the noooooooooooooooooo
Mind you the fact I had imbibed "a few" drinks that night/morning probably FIRED me up to havea thread to counter the other thread !
Trying to give "hope" to those in cheap seats!!!!!
You never know what will be posted on such a thread as this.........I do know that I will complete the CHECK on STRATEGY on all races rated just to see how much profit/ROI might be made ....( I HAVE TO WAIT ANYWAY ON FRIEND COMPLETING HIS PART RE GETTING SYSTEM FIT FOR USE AGAIN.....SO AT LEAST I AM DOING SOMETHING USEFUL WHILST WAITING....)
Getting a bit knackered now ....but thanks for your posts LB and A.....always some "thought" given to them....Pretty sure the lay favs angle below the line won't work though .....but will keep eye on results as I do CHECK....
Time to chill out now ...and FOOTBALL on...Need a goal in COLON game
G M the noooooooooooooooooo
this is some serious work DFC. good stuff.
do you have a day job?
also did anyone see nature's giants tonight about racehorse breeding?
do you have a day job?
also did anyone see nature's giants tonight about racehorse breeding?
If you were trying to convince Dev (or whatever his name was) last night that the Holy Grail did exist, I think you should have started the thread with a smaller post! I guarantee you would have lost him after about line three...
hey the original poster is right about foootball i have come to the conclusion in football form is not significant enough and really the only way to bet on football is in play betting pre game is random
reason teams change mentality change formations etc the same players dont usually play every game once a ball is kick all previous form goes out the window like teams that u see getiing beat week in week out can change ther formation eventually etc its all about what happens on the pitch at the time not what happened last week football is played by humans humans adapt i cant understand why people try to devise football ratings when most teams you will find dont play the exact same team week in week out
yes football form is important but i dont think it is significant enough unlike horses
how do you create your own ratings do you use a computer
reason teams change mentality change formations etc the same players dont usually play every game once a ball is kick all previous form goes out the window like teams that u see getiing beat week in week out can change ther formation eventually etc its all about what happens on the pitch at the time not what happened last week football is played by humans humans adapt i cant understand why people try to devise football ratings when most teams you will find dont play the exact same team week in week out
yes football form is important but i dont think it is significant enough unlike horses
how do you create your own ratings do you use a computer
Had to get friend to computerise system as i needed to take the tedious part out doing ratings.
Not "easy" converting what was in my heid to someone who knew nothing about horse racing!
So took a number of years before he produced the system....and in 2008 started to rate races on it.
Been long pauses since then due to various circumstances..........and I needed to analyse the results for ratings to try to figure out how best to use them !
Away to watch BANFIELD match ...glutton for punishment....hope this on does not finish 0-0 as layed it! MGOFS 1-0 or 0-1.
Gl with bets.
Not "easy" converting what was in my heid to someone who knew nothing about horse racing!
So took a number of years before he produced the system....and in 2008 started to rate races on it.
Been long pauses since then due to various circumstances..........and I needed to analyse the results for ratings to try to figure out how best to use them !
Away to watch BANFIELD match ...glutton for punishment....hope this on does not finish 0-0 as layed it! MGOFS 1-0 or 0-1.
Gl with bets.
DFC, why didn't you teach yourself to program? A few minutes each night for the last two years and you'd definitely have enough knowledge of programming now to be able to create your own programs. You don't actually need to have an awful lot of programming skills in order to be able to extract data, perform calculations on it, and put it back into a text file in a form that works best for you.
The-Revolutionary, football isn't quite as random as you think. You get to hear exactly who's going to be playing before the game starts, and from that you can usually have a stab at what the formation will be. You don't always know the team mentality, but there are certain games that you know the teams will be taking less seriously than others. And there'll be some matches where you're expecting the team to be experiencing a bit of a hangover from the last match.
The teams who have been playing European football mid-week invariably struggle when they play league games three days later. And that's particularly so when they have small squads and so have to play virtually the same team in both matches. Last week, the only Uefa Cup team not to struggle on the Sunday was Tottenham. And that probably had much to do with them fielding a young team in the Uefa match, only to dramatically change the team when they played in the league.
If you're struggling to tell how a team is likely to play, it could be because you're concentrating on fixtures lists rather than individual teams. I watch almost every Manchester United game, and can usually tell from the Man U teamsheet whether it's going to be an exciting attacking team, or whether they're going to be playing mainly for a draw. Sometimes I won't be entirely sure which way the team's going to go. In that case I can always watch their game (on Sopcast if necessary) and can usually tell a few minutes into the match whether they're up for the match or not.
Now, I'm no expert when it comes to football, so if I can get some strong ideas just by watching Man U in a fairly casual way, then I'm sure many of the people on Betfair can become extremely well informed through following one or two or three teams almost exclusively. Get to know not just the main players, but also those on the fringes of the squad. And know which types of team are likely to cause them problems, and which types of team are tailor-made to be destroyed by them.
The teams who have been playing European football mid-week invariably struggle when they play league games three days later. And that's particularly so when they have small squads and so have to play virtually the same team in both matches. Last week, the only Uefa Cup team not to struggle on the Sunday was Tottenham. And that probably had much to do with them fielding a young team in the Uefa match, only to dramatically change the team when they played in the league.
If you're struggling to tell how a team is likely to play, it could be because you're concentrating on fixtures lists rather than individual teams. I watch almost every Manchester United game, and can usually tell from the Man U teamsheet whether it's going to be an exciting attacking team, or whether they're going to be playing mainly for a draw. Sometimes I won't be entirely sure which way the team's going to go. In that case I can always watch their game (on Sopcast if necessary) and can usually tell a few minutes into the match whether they're up for the match or not.
Now, I'm no expert when it comes to football, so if I can get some strong ideas just by watching Man U in a fairly casual way, then I'm sure many of the people on Betfair can become extremely well informed through following one or two or three teams almost exclusively. Get to know not just the main players, but also those on the fringes of the squad. And know which types of team are likely to cause them problems, and which types of team are tailor-made to be destroyed by them.
LB - thought this might interest you......
From races checked SO FAR ( only over 9 days), if you BACKED FAV/JF/CFs (because they are "VALUE" LAYS due to their RANK and odds at SP making them so IMO) then LAYED them IR their appears to be HUGE scope for STRATEGY there.
I know this is NOT a "new" idea.....but it is interesting that there was only 1 horse from the selections under criteria that did not reduce in odds IR.
Where it has "0" ......it means it "won" etc
FAVS OR
JFS OR
CFS
ABOVE
OR BELOW
LINE AT
VALUE TO
BACK TO
LAY IR
REDUCTION
IR LOW IN ODDS NUMBER
ODDS IR SELECTIONS
TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
97.7 101.28 48
3.6 2.4 1
1.08 0.42 1
0 3.3 1
2.5 0 1
0 3.46 1
0 3.77 1
0.1 4.09 1
0.02 3.04 1
1 4.44 1
4 1.6 1
0.33 1.77 1
2.1 0.65 1
0 2.25 1
1.5 3.9 1
0 1.98 1
0.66 4.94 1
3.1 2.3 1
6.8 4.92 1
0 0 1
7.2 1 1
0.9 4.68 1
4.1 0.2 1
0 8.5 1
6 0.92 1
2.3 0.8 1
1.98 2.02 1
3 0.68 1
4.8 0.4 1
0 3 1
0 2.21 1
0 5.14 1
0 3 1
2.7 0.3 1
1.6 1.89 1
1.4 1.05 1
2.95 0.45 1
0.18 3.42 1
4 0.79 1
1.5 1.15 1
0 2.58 1
2.4 0.35 1
5 0.4 1
5 1.1 1
4.9 -0.08 1
2 2.75 1
0 1.75 1
5.2 1.3 1
1.8 0.3 1
The above was from races rated in APRIL 2008 with a minimum of 10 runners.......
So your post on here has stimulated my heid ....a bit.....and the apparent scope for PROFIT is clear from above races checked SO FAR! Therefore I may well have gained from starting this thread ALREADY
Better get back to analysing results .....
GL with bets today
From races checked SO FAR ( only over 9 days), if you BACKED FAV/JF/CFs (because they are "VALUE" LAYS due to their RANK and odds at SP making them so IMO) then LAYED them IR their appears to be HUGE scope for STRATEGY there.
I know this is NOT a "new" idea.....but it is interesting that there was only 1 horse from the selections under criteria that did not reduce in odds IR.
Where it has "0" ......it means it "won" etc
FAVS OR
JFS OR
CFS
ABOVE
OR BELOW
LINE AT
VALUE TO
BACK TO
LAY IR
REDUCTION
IR LOW IN ODDS NUMBER
ODDS IR SELECTIONS
TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
97.7 101.28 48
3.6 2.4 1
1.08 0.42 1
0 3.3 1
2.5 0 1
0 3.46 1
0 3.77 1
0.1 4.09 1
0.02 3.04 1
1 4.44 1
4 1.6 1
0.33 1.77 1
2.1 0.65 1
0 2.25 1
1.5 3.9 1
0 1.98 1
0.66 4.94 1
3.1 2.3 1
6.8 4.92 1
0 0 1
7.2 1 1
0.9 4.68 1
4.1 0.2 1
0 8.5 1
6 0.92 1
2.3 0.8 1
1.98 2.02 1
3 0.68 1
4.8 0.4 1
0 3 1
0 2.21 1
0 5.14 1
0 3 1
2.7 0.3 1
1.6 1.89 1
1.4 1.05 1
2.95 0.45 1
0.18 3.42 1
4 0.79 1
1.5 1.15 1
0 2.58 1
2.4 0.35 1
5 0.4 1
5 1.1 1
4.9 -0.08 1
2 2.75 1
0 1.75 1
5.2 1.3 1
1.8 0.3 1
The above was from races rated in APRIL 2008 with a minimum of 10 runners.......
So your post on here has stimulated my heid ....a bit.....and the apparent scope for PROFIT is clear from above races checked SO FAR! Therefore I may well have gained from starting this thread ALREADY
Better get back to analysing results .....
GL with bets today
If you add the first 2 columns then that gives the BF SP price after the 1 has been deducted.....eg first horse was 7.00 BF SP ...ie 6-1 etc etc
Can't say what the exact BACK and LAY STRATEGY is re above "idea"..........but can say that applying it to the 8 days races ( where 10 runners min in race) the figures indicate - approximately £1,100 PROFIT after commission at 5% using BACK stakes of £100.
"Interesting" results SO FAR!
"Interesting" results SO FAR!
Only 48 selections though over the 9 days ......YUP 9 DAYS above post should read !
DFC,
The most important parameter is the edge (in percentage) ... the profit (absolute value) has no relevance ...
The most important parameter is the edge (in percentage) ... the profit (absolute value) has no relevance ...
Also, 48 selection/9 days is not much but in any case it looks like you are on the "good path"!
GL
GL
LB - applying this "idea" to the day you chose ...the 17.03.09....there would only be 3 bets......
A PROFIT of £17 only would be made applying this STRATEGY of BACK AND LAY for that day. At least not a LOSS!!!!
A PROFIT of £17 only would be made applying this STRATEGY of BACK AND LAY for that day. At least not a LOSS!!!!
acornel- you do the matchs on the recent "idea" ...and
STAKES = 48 x £100 = £4,800
NET PROFIT AFTER COMMISSION = £1,118
What ROI does this show?
Such a ROI is a strong indicator that there IS AN "EDGE" re using the system this way.
STAKES = 48 x £100 = £4,800
NET PROFIT AFTER COMMISSION = £1,118
What ROI does this show?
Such a ROI is a strong indicator that there IS AN "EDGE" re using the system this way.
Even on 17.03.09 the £17 net profit obtained on basis of £300 total STAKES shows 5.66% ROI........
This looks like a pretty mediocre day for system...........but some would consider 5.66% ROI as indicating "EDGE".
This looks like a pretty mediocre day for system...........but some would consider 5.66% ROI as indicating "EDGE".
"maths" A....sorry ...typing too quickly again!
Pick another day A...and will check how applying this STRATEGY would work out.....
Pick another day A...and will check how applying this STRATEGY would work out.....
BTW - out of the 48 selections......only 13 won.......Strike-rate 27.08% This is why STRATEGY works over the 9 days....
With FAVS/JFS/CFS having a far higher WIN ratio than the above over all........then again the RANKING of system re FAVS etc results over the 48 indicate an "EDGE".....
With FAVS/JFS/CFS having a far higher WIN ratio than the above over all........then again the RANKING of system re FAVS etc results over the 48 indicate an "EDGE".....
Sorry T2R ......have been side tracked with household chores
Will post ratings for that day below...
Oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooopssssssssssssssssssssssssssss I DID NOT DO RATINGS THAT DAY T2R
Pick another
Will post ratings for that day below...
Oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooopssssssssssssssssssssssssssss I DID NOT DO RATINGS THAT DAY T2R
Pick another
T2R ------- have you checked the old thread ....as you have picked another day I did not rate them !!
There were 5 days in MARCH 2009 I did not do ratings ....1st/2nd/3rd /15th and 29th!
Pretty good you getting the only 2 days on thread where did not do em......think you are winding me up
There were 5 days in MARCH 2009 I did not do ratings ....1st/2nd/3rd /15th and 29th!
Pretty good you getting the only 2 days on thread where did not do em......think you are winding me up
I've gotta go help with making tea......
If you can pick another in MARCH 2009.....other than the 5 days I did not do em.......the will post ratings/results up quickly so I can't juggle ratings to " c h eeee ttt" etc etc
If you can pick another in MARCH 2009.....other than the 5 days I did not do em.......the will post ratings/results up quickly so I can't juggle ratings to " c h eeee ttt" etc etc
Not wind up DFC, honest!
How about 08/03/09 then?
I'm going for a power nap now so post results in your own time, there's no rush.
Thanks.
How about 08/03/09 then?
I'm going for a power nap now so post results in your own time, there's no rush.
Thanks.
8TH MARCH 2009 ( DAY 6)
KELSO
15:25 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 6f 110y Class 3 7 runners Soft
1,Cornerback 1ST 5-1 SP 3RD FStraight Forecast: £15.18 Exacta: £19.70
2,Bow School 9-2
3,Super Baby 2ND 13-8F
4,Anglicisme 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
5,Supremely Gifted 13-2
6,Waterski 3RD 12 1&3:£6.50 WITH 3RD FAV 2&3:£16.30 WITH FAV
7,Prince Mouse 9
15:55 Handicap Hurdle 4yo plus 2m 110y Class 3 7 runners Soft
1,Gringo 1ST 11-4 2ND F
2,Mohayer 9-4F
3,Bollin Ruth 9
4,Marcel 3RD 9 1&3:£5.40 WWITH 2ND FAV
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
5,First Look 20
6,Ormus 2ND 100-30 1&2:£2.00 WITH 2ND FAV
7,Coconut Beach 14
16:25 Handicap Chase 4yo plus 3m 1f Class 3 5 runners Soft
1,Bold Ransom 1ST 5-2JFStraight Forecast: £6.51 Exacta: £5.30
2,Twelve Paces 2ND 7-2 3RD FAV
3,Scarvagh Diamond 7
4,Crackadee 13-2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5,More Likely 3RD 14 1&3:£48.50 WITH JOINT FAV 2&3:£15.30 WITH 3RD FAV
6,Wild Cane Ridge WD 5-2JF
MARKET RASEN
15:15 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 6f 110y Class 4 8 runners CHASE Crse - Sft Gd/Sft pl (2mm overnight rain)
1,Sycho Fred 2ND 11-4FStraight Forecast: £16.32 Tricast: £120.46 Exacta: £17.50
2,It's Like That 1ST 4-1 2ND F
3,Iloveturtle 22
4,Cardington 15-2
5,Day du Roy 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6,Pass The Class 9-2
7,Keen Warrior 3RD 12-1 1&3:£15.90 WITH 2ND FAV
8,Thistlecraft 9-2
9,Sir Brastias N/R
15:45 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 4f Class 5 11 runners Chse Crse - Sft Gd/Sft pl (2mm overnight rain)
1,Paradise Expected 2ND 8-11FStraight Forecast: £11.76 Tricast: £151.47 Exacta: £15.20
2,Feeling Peckish 20
3,Toulouse Express 1ST 13-2 2ND F
4,Matinee Idol 40
5,Devils River 11
6,Diarius 10
----------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING RACE FOR BACKING - ONLY LAY RACE
7,Island Key 3RD 33-1 1&3:£25.10 WITH 2ND FAV 2&3:£12.10 WITH FAV
8,Knock Boy 14
9,Illogical Hope 40
10,Something Gold 14
11,Supreme Leisure 22
16:15 Handicap Hurdle 4yo plus 3m Class 3 12 runners Hdles Crse - Gd/Sft Gd pl (2mm overnight rain)
1,Ballycarney 5-2F
2,Minella Boys 7-2
3,Walamo N/R
4,Oniz Tiptoes 33
5,Go Amwell 2ND 20-1 SPSwingers:1&2:£83.00, 2&3:£15.30, 1&3:£48.50
6,Bobby Gee 4
7,Dusky Lord 15-2
8,Pelo Du Bief 3RD 11-1
-----------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING LAY RACE
9,Caramia 33
10,Magical Legend 1ST 33-1 SP
11,Jayne's Crusader 25
12,Imtihan 10
13,McEldowney 50
17:15 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 2f Class 4 5 runners Chse Crse - Sft Gd/Sft pl (2mm overnight rain)
1,Laharna 11-8F
2,Glimmer of Light 1ST 3-1sp 3RD F
3,Russian Invader N/R
4,Peak Seasons 3RD 14 1&3:£3.90 WITH 3RD FAV 2&3:£1.10 WITH 2ND FAV
-----------------------------------------------------------
5,Uptown Lad 14
6,Imminent Victory 2ND 5-2
7,Crystal Prince N/R
WARWICK
15:35 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 4f 110y Class 4 5 runners Good to Soft Good IP
1,Nelson 1ST 15-8
2,Major Euro 2ND 9-2 SWINGER N/A
3,Devil's Creek 15-8F
------------------------------------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £10.27 Exacta: £8.40
4,Incorporation 3RD 13-2
5,Arceye 14
16:35 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 5f Class 3 6 runners Good to Soft Good IP MISSED RACE DUE TO GETTING SIDE TRACKED!
1,Sea Eagle 12
2,The Gangerman 3RD 6
3,Minella Four Star 7-2
4,Woodlands Genpower N/R
5,Keenan's Future 1ST 7-2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
6,Gaora Lane 2ND 9-4F
7,Durante 15-2
===========================================================================================
IGNORE ALL THE C RA P RE NON-QUALIFYING RACES ETC
WILL POST RESULT OF CHECK ON THE "NEW IDEA2 STRATEGY AFTER TEA.....
KELSO
15:25 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 6f 110y Class 3 7 runners Soft
1,Cornerback 1ST 5-1 SP 3RD FStraight Forecast: £15.18 Exacta: £19.70
2,Bow School 9-2
3,Super Baby 2ND 13-8F
4,Anglicisme 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
5,Supremely Gifted 13-2
6,Waterski 3RD 12 1&3:£6.50 WITH 3RD FAV 2&3:£16.30 WITH FAV
7,Prince Mouse 9
15:55 Handicap Hurdle 4yo plus 2m 110y Class 3 7 runners Soft
1,Gringo 1ST 11-4 2ND F
2,Mohayer 9-4F
3,Bollin Ruth 9
4,Marcel 3RD 9 1&3:£5.40 WWITH 2ND FAV
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
5,First Look 20
6,Ormus 2ND 100-30 1&2:£2.00 WITH 2ND FAV
7,Coconut Beach 14
16:25 Handicap Chase 4yo plus 3m 1f Class 3 5 runners Soft
1,Bold Ransom 1ST 5-2JFStraight Forecast: £6.51 Exacta: £5.30
2,Twelve Paces 2ND 7-2 3RD FAV
3,Scarvagh Diamond 7
4,Crackadee 13-2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5,More Likely 3RD 14 1&3:£48.50 WITH JOINT FAV 2&3:£15.30 WITH 3RD FAV
6,Wild Cane Ridge WD 5-2JF
MARKET RASEN
15:15 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 6f 110y Class 4 8 runners CHASE Crse - Sft Gd/Sft pl (2mm overnight rain)
1,Sycho Fred 2ND 11-4FStraight Forecast: £16.32 Tricast: £120.46 Exacta: £17.50
2,It's Like That 1ST 4-1 2ND F
3,Iloveturtle 22
4,Cardington 15-2
5,Day du Roy 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6,Pass The Class 9-2
7,Keen Warrior 3RD 12-1 1&3:£15.90 WITH 2ND FAV
8,Thistlecraft 9-2
9,Sir Brastias N/R
15:45 Novices' Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 4f Class 5 11 runners Chse Crse - Sft Gd/Sft pl (2mm overnight rain)
1,Paradise Expected 2ND 8-11FStraight Forecast: £11.76 Tricast: £151.47 Exacta: £15.20
2,Feeling Peckish 20
3,Toulouse Express 1ST 13-2 2ND F
4,Matinee Idol 40
5,Devils River 11
6,Diarius 10
----------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING RACE FOR BACKING - ONLY LAY RACE
7,Island Key 3RD 33-1 1&3:£25.10 WITH 2ND FAV 2&3:£12.10 WITH FAV
8,Knock Boy 14
9,Illogical Hope 40
10,Something Gold 14
11,Supreme Leisure 22
16:15 Handicap Hurdle 4yo plus 3m Class 3 12 runners Hdles Crse - Gd/Sft Gd pl (2mm overnight rain)
1,Ballycarney 5-2F
2,Minella Boys 7-2
3,Walamo N/R
4,Oniz Tiptoes 33
5,Go Amwell 2ND 20-1 SPSwingers:1&2:£83.00, 2&3:£15.30, 1&3:£48.50
6,Bobby Gee 4
7,Dusky Lord 15-2
8,Pelo Du Bief 3RD 11-1
-----------------------------------------------------------------NON-QUALIFYING LAY RACE
9,Caramia 33
10,Magical Legend 1ST 33-1 SP
11,Jayne's Crusader 25
12,Imtihan 10
13,McEldowney 50
17:15 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 2f Class 4 5 runners Chse Crse - Sft Gd/Sft pl (2mm overnight rain)
1,Laharna 11-8F
2,Glimmer of Light 1ST 3-1sp 3RD F
3,Russian Invader N/R
4,Peak Seasons 3RD 14 1&3:£3.90 WITH 3RD FAV 2&3:£1.10 WITH 2ND FAV
-----------------------------------------------------------
5,Uptown Lad 14
6,Imminent Victory 2ND 5-2
7,Crystal Prince N/R
WARWICK
15:35 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 2m 4f 110y Class 4 5 runners Good to Soft Good IP
1,Nelson 1ST 15-8
2,Major Euro 2ND 9-2 SWINGER N/A
3,Devil's Creek 15-8F
------------------------------------------------------------------------Straight Forecast: £10.27 Exacta: £8.40
4,Incorporation 3RD 13-2
5,Arceye 14
16:35 Handicap Chase 5yo plus 3m 5f Class 3 6 runners Good to Soft Good IP MISSED RACE DUE TO GETTING SIDE TRACKED!
1,Sea Eagle 12
2,The Gangerman 3RD 6
3,Minella Four Star 7-2
4,Woodlands Genpower N/R
5,Keenan's Future 1ST 7-2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
6,Gaora Lane 2ND 9-4F
7,Durante 15-2
===========================================================================================
IGNORE ALL THE C RA P RE NON-QUALIFYING RACES ETC
WILL POST RESULT OF CHECK ON THE "NEW IDEA2 STRATEGY AFTER TEA.....
Easy to check that one ....as only 2 races with 10 runners....and no "qualifying" favs/JFS/CFS below line or ranked above the line that are at value odds up to the 3rd top rated.....etc
NO PROFIT....NO LOSS on STRAT that day T2R
t
NO PROFIT....NO LOSS on STRAT that day T2R
t
For the original STRATEGY re LAYING the one above lowest odds one that RANKED as VALUE.....only 1 selection in the 2 races
4.15 Imtihan and it did not win or place
4.15 Imtihan and it did not win or place
Oooooooooopssssssssssssssssssss it was 10-1 SP ....so that would not have been lay...
Bobby Gee would be the LAY ...at 4-1 SP ...did not win or place.
Bobby Gee would be the LAY ...at 4-1 SP ...did not win or place.
Right ...better go nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
Bye the noooooooooooooooooo
Bye the noooooooooooooooooo
Please note that there was an ERROR in spreadsheet that was repeated on doing calculations on the BACK TO LAY FAVS/JFS/CFS below the line or above line( up to 4th top rated) where odds were value to lay.....
Figures now are
PROFIT COMMISSION NET PROFIT
525.38 -161.269 ....364.11
I knew figures were too good to be true !
Sorry for misleading post!
Figures now are
PROFIT COMMISSION NET PROFIT
525.38 -161.269 ....364.11
I knew figures were too good to be true !
Sorry for misleading post!
In that day above, I notice there was another Fave classed as below the line, and he would have been a successful lay! Also, there was a Joint Fave who was under the line in another of those races that day, and he was also a good lay. This Bobbin System rocks, I reckon...
Such a ROI is a strong indicator that there IS AN "EDGE" re using the system this way.
DFC,
The ROI is not so important ... ~ 25% ROI might look impressive as an "absolute" value but what is most important is the edge. It is clear that if the ROI is positive then you have an edge ... but the question is how big is your edge in percentage?
I'll try to calculate it even if I won't be 100% precise (I don't have all your bets/odds/result) ...
1. "BTW - out of the 48 selections......only 13 won.......Strike-rate 27.08% This is why STRATEGY works over the 9 days...."
[i]2. "...approximately £1,100 PROFIT after commission at 5% using BACK stakes of £100."
Strike-rate 27.08% ... ROI ~22%
I calculate an average odds for the 48 bets = 4.50 (you can confirm this) ... so your Edge is (4.50*27 - 73)/4.50 = 121.5-73/4.50 = ~10.7%
This is a comfortable edge ... if it is confirmed after many more bets ... I'd say at least 200 or even more.
DFC,
The ROI is not so important ... ~ 25% ROI might look impressive as an "absolute" value but what is most important is the edge. It is clear that if the ROI is positive then you have an edge ... but the question is how big is your edge in percentage?
I'll try to calculate it even if I won't be 100% precise (I don't have all your bets/odds/result) ...
1. "BTW - out of the 48 selections......only 13 won.......Strike-rate 27.08% This is why STRATEGY works over the 9 days...."
[i]2. "...approximately £1,100 PROFIT after commission at 5% using BACK stakes of £100."
Strike-rate 27.08% ... ROI ~22%
I calculate an average odds for the 48 bets = 4.50 (you can confirm this) ... so your Edge is (4.50*27 - 73)/4.50 = 121.5-73/4.50 = ~10.7%
This is a comfortable edge ... if it is confirmed after many more bets ... I'd say at least 200 or even more.
In a 12 runner race....if a horse is RANKED top rated ...and the SP odds are 5-8FAV.......would you consider this a VALUE BACK to LAY bet?
Currently checking applying similar STRATEGY re BACK to LAY any FAV/JF/CF in top 3 rated that is at VALUE odds considering its' RANKING.......
There were 6 races that had 10 runners, and had a "qualifying" fav/jf/cf in top 3, that were rated on 15 JULY 2008.....and applying same BACK to LAY strategy the following figs obtained ...
PROFIT COMMISSION
406.52 -25.326
As "expected" the system should do better with this BACK to LAY strategy than the other one......as it was devised to get winners at good odds ......and not to LAY horses....
There were 6 races that had 10 runners, and had a "qualifying" fav/jf/cf in top 3, that were rated on 15 JULY 2008.....and applying same BACK to LAY strategy the following figs obtained ...
PROFIT COMMISSION
406.52 -25.326
As "expected" the system should do better with this BACK to LAY strategy than the other one......as it was devised to get winners at good odds ......and not to LAY horses....
Well I know 3 days doesn't a swallow make but....
I did a check on how the three top rated fared re a few days in JULY 2008.......and am currently checking out how applying the "new" STRATEGY would work out in races where 10 runners etc
This was the original check
NO TOP TOP 2ND TOP 3RD TOP
RUNNERS RANK RANK RANK RANK RANK RANK
POSITION SP ODDS POSITION SP ODDS POSITION SP ODDS
16.07.08
2.1 12 3 5-2 2 8-1 1 6-4F
2.2 10 3 15-8 2 5-4F X 11-2
2.3 8 1 5-2 2 6-4F X 8-1
2.4 15 4 16-1 X 9-1 X 16-1
2.5 11 X 12-1 X 12-1 X 6-1
3 12 X 9-1 X 40-1 X 12-1
3.1 16 3 17-2 2 9-1 X 11-2
3.2 6 1 2-1F X 5-1
3.3 7 X 3-1 2 15-2
3.4 16 1 10-1 X 11-2 3 12-1
3.5 8 2 7-4JF 3 7-4JF X 9-1
4 11 X 11-2 X 14-1 X 14-1
4.1 8 1 8-11F 3 8-1 X 5-1
4.2 5 1 4-6F X 4-1
4.3 11 X 12-1 1 4-1 X 14-1
4.4 14 X 3-1 1 10-1 2 7-4F
4.5 12 3 7-2JF X 8-1 X 8-1
5 10 X 9-1 1 10-1 X 25-1
17.07.08
2 12 X 25-1 3 20-1 2 4-1
2.1 10 X 13-8F X 15-2 X 33-1
2.2 5 1 3-1 X 2-1 2 7-4
2.3 13 X 16-1 X 40-1 X 22-1
2.4 6 3 EVENSF 2 12-1
2.5 6 X 3-1JF 2 3-1JF
3.05 12 X 25-1 X 7-2 1 11-1
3.15 13 2 7-1 X 16-1 X 40-1
3.25 8 X 11-4JF 2 7-1 1 11-4JF
3.4 10 X 11-2 3 33-1 X 6-4F
3.5 4 X 7-2 1 8-11F
4 7 2 15-8 1 6-4F
4.15 8 X 25-1 2 10-1 1 11-4
4.25 14 1 9-4 X 16-1 X 15-8F
4.35 9 X 8-1 X 4-1 X 6-1
4.5 12 1 6-5F X 100-1 X 150-1
5 12 X 11-2 X 7-2 3 12-1
5.1 11 1 9-2F 3 15-2 2 6-1
5.2 6 X 5-2 2 33-1
5.3 17 X 6-1 X 8-1 X 14-1
18.07.08
1.3 18 X 16-1 X 40-1 X 5-2F
2 13 1 13-8F X 11-4 2 20-1
2.15 15 X 14-1 4 10-1 3 3-1F
2.25 15 3 15-2 X 25-1 X 20-1
2.35 13 X 18-1 3 11-2 X 50-1
2.45 12 X 28-1 1 7-4 2 6-4F
2.55 9 1 5-2 X 16-1 2 5-1
3.05 11 X 20-1 X 20-1 X 10-1
3.2 8 2 4-1 3 2-1F X 14-1
3.3 7 1 1-2F X 20-1 2 11-1
3.4 8 2 4-6F X 10-1 X 11-4
3.5 14 X 16-1 1 8-13F 2 4-1
4 13 X 16-1 X 11-4F X 33-1
4.1 11 X 25-1 X 25-1 2 7-1
4.2 7 2 9-4F 3 5-2 1 7-2
4.3 7 2 7-2 X 15-8F
4.4 8 X 33-1 X 9-1 X 8-1
4.5 11 2 7-2F 1 4-1 X 20-1
5 13 X 6-4F X 80-1 X 66-1
5.45 17 X 8-1 1 16-1 X 12-1
6.15 15 X 11-2 X 8-1 X 16-1
6.35 14 X 33-1 X 33-1 X 100-30
6.45 8 X 16-1 X 7-1 1 8-11F
7.05 9 X 9-1 X 9-2 3 10-1
7.15 7 2 11-2 1 4-1 X 8-11F
7.35 15 X 8-1 X 20-1 X 18-1
7.5 9 X 7-1 3 6-1 X 8-1
8.1 15 X 4-1 X 14-1 X 20-1
8.2 14 X 6-1 X 50-1 X 20-1
8.4 11 4 3-1 X 10-1 1 40-1
8.5 19 4 16-1 X 3-1F X 17-2
9.1 15 X 10-1 X 8-1 X 7-1
Ones marked in BOLD are what might be considered as VALUE BACKS to LAY.
19.07.08
1.3 11 3 9-1 X 13-2 X 4-1
1.5 7 1 9-1 3 7-4F X 13-2
2 9 1 1-2F X 8-1 X 16-1
2.05 16 2 4-1F 1 7-1 4 25-1
2.2 12 2 6-4F X 10-1 X 12-1
2.3 12 X 40-1 X 25-1 X 12-1
2.35 10 X 50-1 1 5-2JF X 9-2
2.4 12 1 11-4F X 16-1 2
2.5 10 X 3-1F 1 7-2 X 10-1
3 16 X 11-4F X 20-1 1 4-1
3.05 8 1 6-1 2 5-2F X 100-30
3.1 6 1 9-1 X 15-8F 2 4-1
3.25 23 X 16-1 3 12-1 X 15-2
3.3 10 1 12-1 3 14-1 X 5-1
3.35 9 X 13-2 3 2-1F X 10-1
3.4 16 X 100-30F X 40-1 3 5-1
3.55 16 X 16-1 1 9-2 3 16-1
4 6 X 9-2 2 9-2
4.1 13 X 9-2 X 12-1 2 3-1F
4.15 10 1 9-2 X 12-1 3 9-4
4.3 11 X 14-1 X 20-1 2 5-4F
4.35 11 X 9-1 1 5-1 X 10-1
4.45 9 X 12-1 3 11-4 2 11-1
4.5 8 X 7-1 3 9-2 1 11-4F
5 11 X 10-1 X 14-1 3 13-2
5.05 20 X 6-1 X 16-1 X 16-1
5.15 13 X 7-2F X 12-1 X 33-1
5.25 7 2 6-4F X 4-1 X 10-1
21.07.08 (Missed out BEVERLEY RACES)
2.15 7 X 3-1 X 80-1
2.3 8 X 14-1 1 15-8JF 2 11-2
2.45 14 X 3-1JF X 22-1 4 14-1
3 6 X 7-2 1 3-1
3.15 5 X 10-1 2 5-1
3.3 8 X 12-1 2 15-2 X 15-8F
3.45 8 X 14-1 X 10-1 X 10-1
4 12 3 11-2 2 16-1 X 7-1
4.15 10 X 7-1 X 13-2 X 17-2
4.3 16 X 13-2 3 6-1F X 17-2
4.45 11 X 10-1 2 9-2 X 10-1
5 10 3 7-4F 1 7-1 X 4-1
5.15 12 X 7-1 X 16-1 3 4-1F
5.3 7 2 2-1F 3 8-1
6.2 13 2 2-1F X 9-1 X 8-1
6.5 11 3 9-1 X 9-1 X 16-1
7.2 16 X 11-4F X 14-1 X 33-1
7.5 13 2 15-2 X 20-1 X 10-1
8.2 11 X 16-1 X 8-1 X 8-1
8.5 13 X 10-1 3 11-4F 2 7-2
22.07.08
2.15 4 1 1-3F 2 9-1
2.3 12 X 4-1F X 10-1 X 7-1
2.45 8 X 7-1 2 10-1 X 33-1
3 14 3 14-1 X 100-1 X 80-1
3.15 8 1 4-5F 2 7-2 X 18-1
3.35 13 X 8-1 2 14-1 X 16-1
3.5 10 2 13-2 3 11-2 X 6-1
4.05 10 X 14-1 1 7-2F X 7-1
4.2 4 X 4-1 1 1-4F
4.4 15 1 9-2 X 5-2F X 3-1
4.55 12 3 8-1 1 7-2 X 18-1
5.1 15 X 12-1 2 4-1 X 40-1
5.25 15 2 12-1 3 3-1F X 5-1
6 10 3 5-1 X 22-1 1 11-4F
6.2 10 X 10-1 X 11-4JF X 20-1
6.3 11 1 13-2 X 25-1 X 16-1
6.5 12 1 7-2 X 22-1 2 16-1
7 4 1 4-7F X 22-1
7.2 7 1 2-5F X 3-1 X 25-1
7.3 10 3 4-1 1 5-6F 2 9-1
7.5 7 2 8-1 X 5-1 X 33-1
8 8 1 5-2 X 11-4 X 9-1
8.2 7 2 9-4 1 15-8F 3 7-2
8.3 10 1 8-15F X 16-1 X 12-1
8.5 9 2 2-1F 3 5-2 X 8-1
9 17 X 7-1 2 15-2 X 20-1
23.07.08
2 13 3 11-8F 1 9-4 X 25-1
2.1 12 1 2-1F X 10-1 X 4-1
2.2 10 X 9-2 2 6-4F X 8-1
2.3 7 X 9-1 X 8-1 1 3-1
2.4 9 X 100-1 2 9-2 X 66-1
2.5 9 2 5-6F 3 7-1 X 10-1
3 11 1 7-2JF X 6-1 X 9-2
3.1 8 1 5-2CF 3 16-1 2 5-2CF
3.2 8 2 8-1 X 16-1 X 4-1
3.3 8 1 8-1 X 5-1 3 8-1
3.4 12 1 3-1JF X 10-1 X 25-1
3.5 9 2 6-4F X 14-1 3 9-2
4 14 X 9-1 1 9-2 X 16-1
4.1 12 3 4-1F X 22-1 X 50-1
4.2 11 X 10-1 X 11-2 X 8-1
4.3 12 X 11-2 X 12-1 X 10-1
4.4 12 X 15-2 3 8-1 X 14-1
4.5 11 1 3-1 X 11-4F X 40-1
5 10 X 9-1 3 7-1 1 4-1CF
5.2 9 X 5-2JF X 40-1 X 8-1
6.05 10 2 11-2 X 16-1 X 14-1
6.15 13 X 12-1 X 15-2 1 9-4F
6.35 7 X 3-1 1 2-1
6.45 5 1 5-6F X 10-1
7.1 8 2 8-13F 3 12-1 X 10-1
7.2 14 X 20-1 X 12-1 X 25-1
7.4 7 X 4-7F 2 11-1 X 7-1
7.5 9 X 9-1 X 14-1 X 20-1
8.15 11 X 8-1 1 4-1F X 6-1
8.25 13 X 8-1 X 20-1 2 9-1
8.45 7 X 4-1 X 12-1 X 4-1
8.55 12 X 11-2 1 6-4F X 16-1
24.07.08
2 11 X 100-1 3 100-30 X 50-1
2.1 6 1 12-1 X 10-1
2.2 13 X 100-1 1 8-13F X 100-1
2.35 10 2 9-2 1 11-4 X 5-2F
2.45 7 2 6-5F X 13-1 3 33-1
2.55 12 1 5-2F X 50-1 X 12-1
3.1 16 X 9-2 3 16-1 X 40-1
3.2 8 1 6-4F X 10-1 3 7-1
3.3 3 2N/A 2-5F X 16-1
3.45 12 X 16-1 X 11-2 3 6-1
3.55 16 X 5-1 1 11-8F X 14-1
4.05 14 X 4-1 X 14-1 X 14-1
4.2 9 X 9-1 3 14-1 2 13-8F
4.3 7 X 11-10F 2 11-8
4.4 8 3 12-1 1 5-2F X 3-1
4.5 16 X 25-1 X 14-1 X 8-1
5 7 2 11-8F X 9-1 X 9-1
5.1 12 X 6-1 X 9-1 3 17-2
6 5 1 4-7F X 3-1
6.1 13 X 8-1 1 3-1F X 33-1
6.2 14 1 9-2 x 100-30f 2 8-1
6.3 12 1 4-6F X 8-1 X 16-1
6.4 10 1 9-4F 2 16-1 X 33-1
6.5 11 x 3-1 3 7-1 x 7-1
7.05 4 X 5-1 1 7-4
7.15 11 X 4-1 X 8-1 X 25-1
7.25 9 X 28-1 1 5-1 X 11-1
7.35 8 X 12-1 X 8-1 2 2-1
7.45 14 3 16-1 1 3-1JF X 3-1JF
7.55 4 2 5-6F X 7-4
8.1 12 X 20-1 1 2-1F X 11-4
8.2 13 2 9-1 1 4-1 3 16-1
8.3 8 X 8-1 X 18-1 X 9-4F
8.4 11 X 16-1 X 7-2 X 9-2
8.5 11 X 16-1 1 9-2 3 6-1
9 12 3 3-1F X 7-1 1 7-2
9.2 8 X 14-1 1 6-4F X 22-1
This was the original check
NO TOP TOP 2ND TOP 3RD TOP
RUNNERS RANK RANK RANK RANK RANK RANK
POSITION SP ODDS POSITION SP ODDS POSITION SP ODDS
16.07.08
2.1 12 3 5-2 2 8-1 1 6-4F
2.2 10 3 15-8 2 5-4F X 11-2
2.3 8 1 5-2 2 6-4F X 8-1
2.4 15 4 16-1 X 9-1 X 16-1
2.5 11 X 12-1 X 12-1 X 6-1
3 12 X 9-1 X 40-1 X 12-1
3.1 16 3 17-2 2 9-1 X 11-2
3.2 6 1 2-1F X 5-1
3.3 7 X 3-1 2 15-2
3.4 16 1 10-1 X 11-2 3 12-1
3.5 8 2 7-4JF 3 7-4JF X 9-1
4 11 X 11-2 X 14-1 X 14-1
4.1 8 1 8-11F 3 8-1 X 5-1
4.2 5 1 4-6F X 4-1
4.3 11 X 12-1 1 4-1 X 14-1
4.4 14 X 3-1 1 10-1 2 7-4F
4.5 12 3 7-2JF X 8-1 X 8-1
5 10 X 9-1 1 10-1 X 25-1
17.07.08
2 12 X 25-1 3 20-1 2 4-1
2.1 10 X 13-8F X 15-2 X 33-1
2.2 5 1 3-1 X 2-1 2 7-4
2.3 13 X 16-1 X 40-1 X 22-1
2.4 6 3 EVENSF 2 12-1
2.5 6 X 3-1JF 2 3-1JF
3.05 12 X 25-1 X 7-2 1 11-1
3.15 13 2 7-1 X 16-1 X 40-1
3.25 8 X 11-4JF 2 7-1 1 11-4JF
3.4 10 X 11-2 3 33-1 X 6-4F
3.5 4 X 7-2 1 8-11F
4 7 2 15-8 1 6-4F
4.15 8 X 25-1 2 10-1 1 11-4
4.25 14 1 9-4 X 16-1 X 15-8F
4.35 9 X 8-1 X 4-1 X 6-1
4.5 12 1 6-5F X 100-1 X 150-1
5 12 X 11-2 X 7-2 3 12-1
5.1 11 1 9-2F 3 15-2 2 6-1
5.2 6 X 5-2 2 33-1
5.3 17 X 6-1 X 8-1 X 14-1
18.07.08
1.3 18 X 16-1 X 40-1 X 5-2F
2 13 1 13-8F X 11-4 2 20-1
2.15 15 X 14-1 4 10-1 3 3-1F
2.25 15 3 15-2 X 25-1 X 20-1
2.35 13 X 18-1 3 11-2 X 50-1
2.45 12 X 28-1 1 7-4 2 6-4F
2.55 9 1 5-2 X 16-1 2 5-1
3.05 11 X 20-1 X 20-1 X 10-1
3.2 8 2 4-1 3 2-1F X 14-1
3.3 7 1 1-2F X 20-1 2 11-1
3.4 8 2 4-6F X 10-1 X 11-4
3.5 14 X 16-1 1 8-13F 2 4-1
4 13 X 16-1 X 11-4F X 33-1
4.1 11 X 25-1 X 25-1 2 7-1
4.2 7 2 9-4F 3 5-2 1 7-2
4.3 7 2 7-2 X 15-8F
4.4 8 X 33-1 X 9-1 X 8-1
4.5 11 2 7-2F 1 4-1 X 20-1
5 13 X 6-4F X 80-1 X 66-1
5.45 17 X 8-1 1 16-1 X 12-1
6.15 15 X 11-2 X 8-1 X 16-1
6.35 14 X 33-1 X 33-1 X 100-30
6.45 8 X 16-1 X 7-1 1 8-11F
7.05 9 X 9-1 X 9-2 3 10-1
7.15 7 2 11-2 1 4-1 X 8-11F
7.35 15 X 8-1 X 20-1 X 18-1
7.5 9 X 7-1 3 6-1 X 8-1
8.1 15 X 4-1 X 14-1 X 20-1
8.2 14 X 6-1 X 50-1 X 20-1
8.4 11 4 3-1 X 10-1 1 40-1
8.5 19 4 16-1 X 3-1F X 17-2
9.1 15 X 10-1 X 8-1 X 7-1
Ones marked in BOLD are what might be considered as VALUE BACKS to LAY.
19.07.08
1.3 11 3 9-1 X 13-2 X 4-1
1.5 7 1 9-1 3 7-4F X 13-2
2 9 1 1-2F X 8-1 X 16-1
2.05 16 2 4-1F 1 7-1 4 25-1
2.2 12 2 6-4F X 10-1 X 12-1
2.3 12 X 40-1 X 25-1 X 12-1
2.35 10 X 50-1 1 5-2JF X 9-2
2.4 12 1 11-4F X 16-1 2
2.5 10 X 3-1F 1 7-2 X 10-1
3 16 X 11-4F X 20-1 1 4-1
3.05 8 1 6-1 2 5-2F X 100-30
3.1 6 1 9-1 X 15-8F 2 4-1
3.25 23 X 16-1 3 12-1 X 15-2
3.3 10 1 12-1 3 14-1 X 5-1
3.35 9 X 13-2 3 2-1F X 10-1
3.4 16 X 100-30F X 40-1 3 5-1
3.55 16 X 16-1 1 9-2 3 16-1
4 6 X 9-2 2 9-2
4.1 13 X 9-2 X 12-1 2 3-1F
4.15 10 1 9-2 X 12-1 3 9-4
4.3 11 X 14-1 X 20-1 2 5-4F
4.35 11 X 9-1 1 5-1 X 10-1
4.45 9 X 12-1 3 11-4 2 11-1
4.5 8 X 7-1 3 9-2 1 11-4F
5 11 X 10-1 X 14-1 3 13-2
5.05 20 X 6-1 X 16-1 X 16-1
5.15 13 X 7-2F X 12-1 X 33-1
5.25 7 2 6-4F X 4-1 X 10-1
21.07.08 (Missed out BEVERLEY RACES)
2.15 7 X 3-1 X 80-1
2.3 8 X 14-1 1 15-8JF 2 11-2
2.45 14 X 3-1JF X 22-1 4 14-1
3 6 X 7-2 1 3-1
3.15 5 X 10-1 2 5-1
3.3 8 X 12-1 2 15-2 X 15-8F
3.45 8 X 14-1 X 10-1 X 10-1
4 12 3 11-2 2 16-1 X 7-1
4.15 10 X 7-1 X 13-2 X 17-2
4.3 16 X 13-2 3 6-1F X 17-2
4.45 11 X 10-1 2 9-2 X 10-1
5 10 3 7-4F 1 7-1 X 4-1
5.15 12 X 7-1 X 16-1 3 4-1F
5.3 7 2 2-1F 3 8-1
6.2 13 2 2-1F X 9-1 X 8-1
6.5 11 3 9-1 X 9-1 X 16-1
7.2 16 X 11-4F X 14-1 X 33-1
7.5 13 2 15-2 X 20-1 X 10-1
8.2 11 X 16-1 X 8-1 X 8-1
8.5 13 X 10-1 3 11-4F 2 7-2
22.07.08
2.15 4 1 1-3F 2 9-1
2.3 12 X 4-1F X 10-1 X 7-1
2.45 8 X 7-1 2 10-1 X 33-1
3 14 3 14-1 X 100-1 X 80-1
3.15 8 1 4-5F 2 7-2 X 18-1
3.35 13 X 8-1 2 14-1 X 16-1
3.5 10 2 13-2 3 11-2 X 6-1
4.05 10 X 14-1 1 7-2F X 7-1
4.2 4 X 4-1 1 1-4F
4.4 15 1 9-2 X 5-2F X 3-1
4.55 12 3 8-1 1 7-2 X 18-1
5.1 15 X 12-1 2 4-1 X 40-1
5.25 15 2 12-1 3 3-1F X 5-1
6 10 3 5-1 X 22-1 1 11-4F
6.2 10 X 10-1 X 11-4JF X 20-1
6.3 11 1 13-2 X 25-1 X 16-1
6.5 12 1 7-2 X 22-1 2 16-1
7 4 1 4-7F X 22-1
7.2 7 1 2-5F X 3-1 X 25-1
7.3 10 3 4-1 1 5-6F 2 9-1
7.5 7 2 8-1 X 5-1 X 33-1
8 8 1 5-2 X 11-4 X 9-1
8.2 7 2 9-4 1 15-8F 3 7-2
8.3 10 1 8-15F X 16-1 X 12-1
8.5 9 2 2-1F 3 5-2 X 8-1
9 17 X 7-1 2 15-2 X 20-1
23.07.08
2 13 3 11-8F 1 9-4 X 25-1
2.1 12 1 2-1F X 10-1 X 4-1
2.2 10 X 9-2 2 6-4F X 8-1
2.3 7 X 9-1 X 8-1 1 3-1
2.4 9 X 100-1 2 9-2 X 66-1
2.5 9 2 5-6F 3 7-1 X 10-1
3 11 1 7-2JF X 6-1 X 9-2
3.1 8 1 5-2CF 3 16-1 2 5-2CF
3.2 8 2 8-1 X 16-1 X 4-1
3.3 8 1 8-1 X 5-1 3 8-1
3.4 12 1 3-1JF X 10-1 X 25-1
3.5 9 2 6-4F X 14-1 3 9-2
4 14 X 9-1 1 9-2 X 16-1
4.1 12 3 4-1F X 22-1 X 50-1
4.2 11 X 10-1 X 11-2 X 8-1
4.3 12 X 11-2 X 12-1 X 10-1
4.4 12 X 15-2 3 8-1 X 14-1
4.5 11 1 3-1 X 11-4F X 40-1
5 10 X 9-1 3 7-1 1 4-1CF
5.2 9 X 5-2JF X 40-1 X 8-1
6.05 10 2 11-2 X 16-1 X 14-1
6.15 13 X 12-1 X 15-2 1 9-4F
6.35 7 X 3-1 1 2-1
6.45 5 1 5-6F X 10-1
7.1 8 2 8-13F 3 12-1 X 10-1
7.2 14 X 20-1 X 12-1 X 25-1
7.4 7 X 4-7F 2 11-1 X 7-1
7.5 9 X 9-1 X 14-1 X 20-1
8.15 11 X 8-1 1 4-1F X 6-1
8.25 13 X 8-1 X 20-1 2 9-1
8.45 7 X 4-1 X 12-1 X 4-1
8.55 12 X 11-2 1 6-4F X 16-1
24.07.08
2 11 X 100-1 3 100-30 X 50-1
2.1 6 1 12-1 X 10-1
2.2 13 X 100-1 1 8-13F X 100-1
2.35 10 2 9-2 1 11-4 X 5-2F
2.45 7 2 6-5F X 13-1 3 33-1
2.55 12 1 5-2F X 50-1 X 12-1
3.1 16 X 9-2 3 16-1 X 40-1
3.2 8 1 6-4F X 10-1 3 7-1
3.3 3 2N/A 2-5F X 16-1
3.45 12 X 16-1 X 11-2 3 6-1
3.55 16 X 5-1 1 11-8F X 14-1
4.05 14 X 4-1 X 14-1 X 14-1
4.2 9 X 9-1 3 14-1 2 13-8F
4.3 7 X 11-10F 2 11-8
4.4 8 3 12-1 1 5-2F X 3-1
4.5 16 X 25-1 X 14-1 X 8-1
5 7 2 11-8F X 9-1 X 9-1
5.1 12 X 6-1 X 9-1 3 17-2
6 5 1 4-7F X 3-1
6.1 13 X 8-1 1 3-1F X 33-1
6.2 14 1 9-2 x 100-30f 2 8-1
6.3 12 1 4-6F X 8-1 X 16-1
6.4 10 1 9-4F 2 16-1 X 33-1
6.5 11 x 3-1 3 7-1 x 7-1
7.05 4 X 5-1 1 7-4
7.15 11 X 4-1 X 8-1 X 25-1
7.25 9 X 28-1 1 5-1 X 11-1
7.35 8 X 12-1 X 8-1 2 2-1
7.45 14 3 16-1 1 3-1JF X 3-1JF
7.55 4 2 5-6F X 7-4
8.1 12 X 20-1 1 2-1F X 11-4
8.2 13 2 9-1 1 4-1 3 16-1
8.3 8 X 8-1 X 18-1 X 9-4F
8.4 11 X 16-1 X 7-2 X 9-2
8.5 11 X 16-1 1 9-2 3 6-1
9 12 3 3-1F X 7-1 1 7-2
9.2 8 X 14-1 1 6-4F X 22-1
AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH missed out putting in BOLD the ones after I typed the bit about BOLD etc .....
Can't be bothered to re-post this .....but you get the gist of post !
Can't be bothered to re-post this .....but you get the gist of post !
OK have checked applying similar STRATEGY etc re races rated in JULY 2008 that have a minimum number of runners of 10.....and produces
TOTAL TOTAL
PROFIT COMMISSION
2377.27 -233.8635
From 59 bets.....and where there were 24 WINNING selections amongst them !
ROI 36.32%
Must be something wrong with the workings on this ....but not spotted it yet
TOTAL TOTAL
PROFIT COMMISSION
2377.27 -233.8635
From 59 bets.....and where there were 24 WINNING selections amongst them !
ROI 36.32%
Must be something wrong with the workings on this ....but not spotted it yet
Obviously there a great deal more FAVOURITES win in JULY than in most other months.....and possibly explains why figures are so "good".
Figures appear to be correctly calculated.......therefore SO FAR so "good"!
Figures appear to be correctly calculated.......therefore SO FAR so "good"!
Anybody know what the WORST month for favourites winning is ?
Possibly JAN or FEB??????
Possibly JAN or FEB??????
Last figures were over 9 days .....in JULY 2008.....with £100 STAKE per selection being basis of calculating results.
Well it surely depends whether on you're talking about Flat racing or Jumps DFC. As far as the Flat racing season goes, according to Adrian Massey's records, year after year July was the best month for favourites, so that backs up your theory. April was the worst month, which makes sense as you'll get a lot of new and lightly raced high quality horses coming in who cause surprises. By July, the good horses are still racing hard but the form is fairly well established, which is why the faves are apparently easier to rely on. Maybe from August onwards the season starts to wind down, and some of the best horses are also getting a little tired or lacking motivation, so things get slightly more unpredictable.
Going on the same logic, wouldn't you expect October/November to be the worst months for Jumps favourites? By February/March the form would be well established and the bad weather would be clearing away as well, which might make things more predictable.
Going on the same logic, wouldn't you expect October/November to be the worst months for Jumps favourites? By February/March the form would be well established and the bad weather would be clearing away as well, which might make things more predictable.
The races rated were the following types....a bit of a mixture....only applying STRATEGY BACK to LAY on min 10 runner races though ...SO FAR...
15.07.08
Claiming Stakes(Class 5) (3yo) 7½f Good 2.15 10
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 2.3 4
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 7½f Good 2.45 12
Handicap(Class 5) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3 12
Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 5f Good 3.15 11
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 7f Good To Firm 3.3 15
Handicap (Class 4) ( 3yo+) 2m Good 3.45 12
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) (7f214y) 1m Good To Firm 4 14
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 5f Good 4.15 16
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) ) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.3 11
Lady Riders Handicap (Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 4.45 16
Apprentice Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) ) 1m4f Good To Firm 5 10
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) (1m100y) Good 5.15 10
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 6f Standard 6.1 8
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.2 11
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-5yo) 1m6f Standard 6.4 6
Selling Nursery(Class 6) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.5 11
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 6f Standard 7.1 10
Handicap(Class 5) 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 7.2 10
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo+) 6f Standard 7.4 8
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m1f Good To Firm 7.5 6
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m Standard 8.1 8
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 8.2 8
Handicap(Class 5) (3yo) 1m Standard 8.4 12
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m6f Good To Firm 8.5 8
NO
RUNNERS
16.07.08
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 2.1 12
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m1f Good To Firm 2.2 10
Novice Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 2.3 8
Novices´ Handicap Chase(Class 5) (4yo+) 3m Good To Firm 2.4 15
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 2.5 11
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3 12
Selling Hurdle(Class 5) (4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 3.1 16
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 2m Good To Firm 3.2 6
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 5f Good To Firm 3.3 7
Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 3m Good To Firm 3.4 16
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 6f Standard 3.5 8
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 4 11
Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m5f Good To Firm 4.1 8
Classified Stakes(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m Standard 4.2 5
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 7f Good To Firm 4.3 11
Maiden Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 4.4 14
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Standard 4.5 12
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m4f Good To Firm 5 10
17.07.08
Novices´ Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) (2m1½f Good 2 12
Nursery(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 2.1 10
Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5f Good 2.2 5
Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m6f Good 2.3 13
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5f Good 2.4 6
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Good 2.5 6
Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 3m2f Good 3.05 12
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 7f Good 3.15 13
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m½f Good 3.25 8
Beginners´ Chase(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m1½f Good 3.4 10
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo) 1m2f Good 3.5 4
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 1m3f Good 4 7
Handicap Chase(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 2m1½f Good 4.15 8
Claiming Stakes(Class 5) (4yo+) 1m4f Good 4.25 14
Stakes (Handicap)(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 4.35 9
Maiden Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m1½f Good To Soft 4.5 12
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m2f Good 5 12
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 5.1 11
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m6f Good To Soft 5.2 6
Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 5.3 17
18.07.08
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 1.3 18
Maiden Stakes (Div I)(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good 2 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Good 2.15 15
Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m5½f Gd To Firm 2.25 15
Maiden Stakes (Div II)(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good 2.35 13
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 6f Good 2.45 12
Maiden Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 3m2f Good To Firm 1 2.55 9
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 3.05 11
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 1m2f Good 3.2 8
Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m1f Good To Firm 3.3 7
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo) 7f Good 3.4 8
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (3yo) 1m2f Good 3.5 14
Novices´ Selling Hurdle(Class 5) (4yo+)) 2m5½f Good To Firm 4 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) ( 5f Good 4.1 11
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m½f Good 4.2 7
Handicap Hurdle(Class 3) ( 4yo+) 2m1f Good To Firm 4.3 7
Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m3f Good 4.4 8
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m½f Good 4.5 11
Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 3m2f Good To Firm 5 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 5.45 17
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.15 15
Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 6.35 14
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.45 8
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good 7.05 9
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 7.15 7
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 5f Good 7.35 15
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 7.5 9
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m Good 8.1 15
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (3yo) 1m Good To Firm 8.2 14
Maiden Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 8.4 11
Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m Good To Firm 8.5 19
Handicap(Class 5) (3yo+) 6f Good 9.1 15
19.07.08
Maiden Stakes (Div I)(Class 4) (3yo) 7f Good To Firm 1.3 11
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (2yo) 7f Good 1.5 7
Maiden Stakes (Div II)(Class 4) (3yo) 7f Good To Firm 2 9
Hurdle Handicap (Listed Race)(Class 1) ( 4yo+) 2m1½f Soft 2.05 16
Stakes (Group 3)(Class 1) (3yo+) 6f Good 2.2 12
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 5f Good 2.3 12
Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares)(Class 1) (3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 2.35 10
Juvenile Novices´ Hurdle(Class 3) (3yo) 2m1½f Soft 2.4 12
Fillies´ Stakes (Handicap)(Class 2) ( 3yo+) 1m Good 2.5 10
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 6f Good 3 16
Handicap(Class 2) ( 3yo) 1m Good To Firm 3.05 8
Handicap Hurdle(Class 2) ( 4yo+) 2m6f Soft 3.1 6
Stakes(Class 2) (2yo) 5f Good 3.25 23
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 3.3 10
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3.35 9
Handicap Chase (Listed Race)(Class 1) ( 4yo+) 2m6½f Soft 3.4 16
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 3.55 16
Handicap(Class 2) ( 3yo) 1m4f Good 4 6
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 4.1 13
Novices´ Hurdle Series (Qualifier)(Class 3) (4yo+) 2m1½f Soft 4.15 10
Stakes (Listed Race)(Class 1) (3yo+) 1m2f Good 4.3 11
Handicap(Class 4) 3yo+) 1m Good 4.35 11
Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) ( 1m7f Good To Firm 4.45 9
Novices´ Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m6½f Soft 4.5 8
Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m Good 5 11
Maiden Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 5.05 20
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 5.15 13
Handicap Chase(Class 3) ( 4yo+) 2m2f Soft 5.25 7
21.07.08 (Missed out BEVERLEY RACES)
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (3-4yo) 1m1f Good To Firm 2.15 7
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Good 2.3 8
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 2.45 14
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 3 6
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 3.15 5
Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m5f Good 3.3 8
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3.45 8
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 4 12
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m3½f Good To Firm 4.15 10
Stakes (Heritage Handicap)(Class 2) (3yo+) 5f Good 4.3 16
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.45 11
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m Good 5 10
Apprentice Riders´ Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 5.15 12
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 5f Good 5.3 7
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 6.2 13
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) () 1m3½f Good To Firm 6.5 11
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 7.2 16
Handicap(Class 4) (3yo) 6f Good To Firm 7.5 13
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m½f Good To Firm 8.2 11
Handicap(Class 5) 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 8.5 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m½f Good To Firm
22.07.08
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 5f Good To Firm 2.15 4
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 2.3 12
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 2.45 8
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 3 14
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m3½f Good To Firm 3.15 8
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 3.35 13
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m Good To Firm 3.5 10
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.05 10
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 7f Good To Firm 4.2 4
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (3yo+) 7f Good To Firm 4.4 15
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 7f Good To Firm 4.55 12
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m Good To Firm 5.1 15
Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 5f Good To Firm 5.25 15
Mares Only Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 6 10
Apprentice Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 1m2f Standard 6.2 10
Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 6.3 11
Handicap(Class 5) 3yo+) 1m Standard 6.5 12
Novices´ Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 7 4
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m Standard 7.2 7
Novices´ Hurdle (Series Qualifier)(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m1f Good To Firm 7.3 10
Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 5f Standard 7.5 7
Handicap Chase(Class 3) ( 4yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 8 8
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 6f Standard 8.2 7
Handicap Chase(Class 4) 4yo+) 2m1½f Good To Firm 8.3 10
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 5f Standard 8.5 9
Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 9 17
23.07.08
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 1m4f Standard 2 13
mateur Riders´ Handicap Hurdle(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 3m Good To Firm 2.1 12
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) ) 6f Good To Firm 2.2 10
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m4f Standard 2.3 7
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 2.4 9
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 2.5 9
Median Auction Maiden Stakes (Div I)(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Standard 3 11
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 3.1 8
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 3.2 8
Median Auction Maiden Stakes (Div II)(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Standard 3.3 8
Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m7f Good To Firm 3.4 12
Nursery(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 3.5 9
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 7f Standard 4 14
Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 4.1 12
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 4.2 11
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Standard 4.3 12
Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 4.4 12
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 4.5 11
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Standard 5 10
Apprentice Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 5.2 9
Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 6.05 10
Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.15 13
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m Good To Firm 6.35 7
Nursery(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 6.45 5
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 7.1 8
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 1m½f Good To Firm 7.2 14
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 7.4 7
Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 7.5 9
Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 5f Good To Firm 8.15 11
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 8.25 13
Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 1m6f Good To Firm 8.45 7
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 8.55 12
24.07.08
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m6½f Good To Firm 2 11
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 5f Good To Firm 2.1 6
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5½f Firm 2.2 13
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m6½f Good To Firm 2.35 10
Handicap(Class 4) 3yo) 5f Good To Firm 2.45 7
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (4yo+) 1m2f Firm 2.55 12
Novices´ Selling Hurdle(Class 5) (4yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 3.1 16
Stakes (Listed Race)(Class 1) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 3.2 8
Novice Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 5f Firm 3.3 3
Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m6½f Good To Firm 3.45 12
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m Good To Firm 3.55 16
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Firm 4.05 14
Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 4.2 9
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.3 7
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 5f Firm 4.4 8
Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race(Class 6) (4-6yo) 2m 4.5 16
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo) 1m6f Good To Firm 5 7
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m2f Firm 5.1 12
Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Good To Firm 6 5
Median Auction Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Standard 6.1 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 6f Good To Firm 6.2 14
Handicap(Class 6) (3yo) 1m4f Good To Firm 6.3 12
Nursery(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Standard 6.4 10
Maiden Auction Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.5 11
Handicap(Class 4) 3yo) 1m1½f Good To Firm 7.05 4
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 6f Standard 7.15 11
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 6f Good To Firm 7.25 9
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 7.35 8
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (3yo+) 1m4f Standard 7.45 14
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (4yo+) 1m Good To Firm 7.55 4
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 8.1 12
Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m4f Standard 8.2 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 8.3 8
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 8.4 11
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m3f Standard 8.5 11
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) ( 1m2½f Good To Firm 9 12
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 7f Standard 9.2 8
15.07.08
Claiming Stakes(Class 5) (3yo) 7½f Good 2.15 10
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 2.3 4
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 7½f Good 2.45 12
Handicap(Class 5) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3 12
Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 5f Good 3.15 11
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 7f Good To Firm 3.3 15
Handicap (Class 4) ( 3yo+) 2m Good 3.45 12
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) (7f214y) 1m Good To Firm 4 14
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 5f Good 4.15 16
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) ) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.3 11
Lady Riders Handicap (Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 4.45 16
Apprentice Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) ) 1m4f Good To Firm 5 10
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) (1m100y) Good 5.15 10
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 6f Standard 6.1 8
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.2 11
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-5yo) 1m6f Standard 6.4 6
Selling Nursery(Class 6) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.5 11
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 6f Standard 7.1 10
Handicap(Class 5) 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 7.2 10
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo+) 6f Standard 7.4 8
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m1f Good To Firm 7.5 6
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m Standard 8.1 8
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 8.2 8
Handicap(Class 5) (3yo) 1m Standard 8.4 12
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m6f Good To Firm 8.5 8
NO
RUNNERS
16.07.08
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 2.1 12
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m1f Good To Firm 2.2 10
Novice Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 2.3 8
Novices´ Handicap Chase(Class 5) (4yo+) 3m Good To Firm 2.4 15
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 2.5 11
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3 12
Selling Hurdle(Class 5) (4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 3.1 16
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 2m Good To Firm 3.2 6
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 5f Good To Firm 3.3 7
Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 3m Good To Firm 3.4 16
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 6f Standard 3.5 8
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 4 11
Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m5f Good To Firm 4.1 8
Classified Stakes(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m Standard 4.2 5
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 7f Good To Firm 4.3 11
Maiden Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 4.4 14
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Standard 4.5 12
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m4f Good To Firm 5 10
17.07.08
Novices´ Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) (2m1½f Good 2 12
Nursery(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 2.1 10
Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5f Good 2.2 5
Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m6f Good 2.3 13
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5f Good 2.4 6
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Good 2.5 6
Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 3m2f Good 3.05 12
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 7f Good 3.15 13
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m½f Good 3.25 8
Beginners´ Chase(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m1½f Good 3.4 10
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo) 1m2f Good 3.5 4
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 1m3f Good 4 7
Handicap Chase(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 2m1½f Good 4.15 8
Claiming Stakes(Class 5) (4yo+) 1m4f Good 4.25 14
Stakes (Handicap)(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 4.35 9
Maiden Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m1½f Good To Soft 4.5 12
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m2f Good 5 12
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 5.1 11
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m6f Good To Soft 5.2 6
Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 5.3 17
18.07.08
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 1.3 18
Maiden Stakes (Div I)(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good 2 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Good 2.15 15
Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m5½f Gd To Firm 2.25 15
Maiden Stakes (Div II)(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good 2.35 13
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 6f Good 2.45 12
Maiden Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 3m2f Good To Firm 1 2.55 9
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 3.05 11
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 1m2f Good 3.2 8
Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m1f Good To Firm 3.3 7
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo) 7f Good 3.4 8
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (3yo) 1m2f Good 3.5 14
Novices´ Selling Hurdle(Class 5) (4yo+)) 2m5½f Good To Firm 4 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) ( 5f Good 4.1 11
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m½f Good 4.2 7
Handicap Hurdle(Class 3) ( 4yo+) 2m1f Good To Firm 4.3 7
Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m3f Good 4.4 8
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m½f Good 4.5 11
Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 3m2f Good To Firm 5 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 5.45 17
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.15 15
Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 6.35 14
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.45 8
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good 7.05 9
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 7.15 7
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 5f Good 7.35 15
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 7.5 9
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m Good 8.1 15
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (3yo) 1m Good To Firm 8.2 14
Maiden Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 8.4 11
Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m Good To Firm 8.5 19
Handicap(Class 5) (3yo+) 6f Good 9.1 15
19.07.08
Maiden Stakes (Div I)(Class 4) (3yo) 7f Good To Firm 1.3 11
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (2yo) 7f Good 1.5 7
Maiden Stakes (Div II)(Class 4) (3yo) 7f Good To Firm 2 9
Hurdle Handicap (Listed Race)(Class 1) ( 4yo+) 2m1½f Soft 2.05 16
Stakes (Group 3)(Class 1) (3yo+) 6f Good 2.2 12
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 5f Good 2.3 12
Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares)(Class 1) (3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 2.35 10
Juvenile Novices´ Hurdle(Class 3) (3yo) 2m1½f Soft 2.4 12
Fillies´ Stakes (Handicap)(Class 2) ( 3yo+) 1m Good 2.5 10
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 6f Good 3 16
Handicap(Class 2) ( 3yo) 1m Good To Firm 3.05 8
Handicap Hurdle(Class 2) ( 4yo+) 2m6f Soft 3.1 6
Stakes(Class 2) (2yo) 5f Good 3.25 23
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 3.3 10
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3.35 9
Handicap Chase (Listed Race)(Class 1) ( 4yo+) 2m6½f Soft 3.4 16
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good 3.55 16
Handicap(Class 2) ( 3yo) 1m4f Good 4 6
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 4.1 13
Novices´ Hurdle Series (Qualifier)(Class 3) (4yo+) 2m1½f Soft 4.15 10
Stakes (Listed Race)(Class 1) (3yo+) 1m2f Good 4.3 11
Handicap(Class 4) 3yo+) 1m Good 4.35 11
Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) ( 1m7f Good To Firm 4.45 9
Novices´ Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m6½f Soft 4.5 8
Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m Good 5 11
Maiden Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 5.05 20
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 5.15 13
Handicap Chase(Class 3) ( 4yo+) 2m2f Soft 5.25 7
21.07.08 (Missed out BEVERLEY RACES)
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (3-4yo) 1m1f Good To Firm 2.15 7
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Good 2.3 8
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 2.45 14
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good 3 6
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 3.15 5
Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m5f Good 3.3 8
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 3.45 8
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 6f Good 4 12
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m3½f Good To Firm 4.15 10
Stakes (Heritage Handicap)(Class 2) (3yo+) 5f Good 4.3 16
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.45 11
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m Good 5 10
Apprentice Riders´ Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 5.15 12
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 5f Good 5.3 7
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 6.2 13
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) () 1m3½f Good To Firm 6.5 11
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 7.2 16
Handicap(Class 4) (3yo) 6f Good To Firm 7.5 13
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m½f Good To Firm 8.2 11
Handicap(Class 5) 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 8.5 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m½f Good To Firm
22.07.08
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 5f Good To Firm 2.15 4
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 2.3 12
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 1m2f Good To Firm 2.45 8
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 3 14
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m3½f Good To Firm 3.15 8
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 3.35 13
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m Good To Firm 3.5 10
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.05 10
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 7f Good To Firm 4.2 4
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (3yo+) 7f Good To Firm 4.4 15
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 7f Good To Firm 4.55 12
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 1m Good To Firm 5.1 15
Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 5f Good To Firm 5.25 15
Mares Only Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 6 10
Apprentice Handicap(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 1m2f Standard 6.2 10
Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 6.3 11
Handicap(Class 5) 3yo+) 1m Standard 6.5 12
Novices´ Chase(Class 4) (5yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 7 4
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m Standard 7.2 7
Novices´ Hurdle (Series Qualifier)(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m1f Good To Firm 7.3 10
Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 5f Standard 7.5 7
Handicap Chase(Class 3) ( 4yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 8 8
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 6f Standard 8.2 7
Handicap Chase(Class 4) 4yo+) 2m1½f Good To Firm 8.3 10
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 5f Standard 8.5 9
Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 9 17
23.07.08
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 1m4f Standard 2 13
mateur Riders´ Handicap Hurdle(Class 6) ( 4yo+) 3m Good To Firm 2.1 12
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) ) 6f Good To Firm 2.2 10
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m4f Standard 2.3 7
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 2.4 9
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 2.5 9
Median Auction Maiden Stakes (Div I)(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Standard 3 11
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 3.1 8
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 3.2 8
Median Auction Maiden Stakes (Div II)(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Standard 3.3 8
Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m7f Good To Firm 3.4 12
Nursery(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 3.5 9
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 7f Standard 4 14
Handicap Hurdle(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 4.1 12
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 4.2 11
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 6f Standard 4.3 12
Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m4f Good To Firm 4.4 12
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Good To Firm 4.5 11
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Standard 5 10
Apprentice Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 5.2 9
Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 6.05 10
Maiden Auction Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.15 13
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 1m Good To Firm 6.35 7
Nursery(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good To Firm 6.45 5
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 7.1 8
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo) 1m½f Good To Firm 7.2 14
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 7.4 7
Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 7.5 9
Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 5f Good To Firm 8.15 11
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 8.25 13
Handicap(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 1m6f Good To Firm 8.45 7
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 8.55 12
24.07.08
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m6½f Good To Firm 2 11
Maiden Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 5f Good To Firm 2.1 6
Median Auction Maiden Stakes(Class 6) (2yo) 5½f Firm 2.2 13
Novices´ Hurdle(Class 4) (4yo+) 2m6½f Good To Firm 2.35 10
Handicap(Class 4) 3yo) 5f Good To Firm 2.45 7
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (4yo+) 1m2f Firm 2.55 12
Novices´ Selling Hurdle(Class 5) (4yo+) 2m4½f Good To Firm 3.1 16
Stakes (Listed Race)(Class 1) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 3.2 8
Novice Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 5f Firm 3.3 3
Handicap Hurdle(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m6½f Good To Firm 3.45 12
Maiden Stakes(Class 5) (3-4yo) 1m Good To Firm 3.55 16
Claiming Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 5f Firm 4.05 14
Handicap Chase(Class 4) ( 4yo+) 2m Good To Firm 4.2 9
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo+) 1m2f Good To Firm 4.3 7
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 5f Firm 4.4 8
Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race(Class 6) (4-6yo) 2m 4.5 16
Handicap(Class 3) ( 3yo) 1m6f Good To Firm 5 7
Fillies´ Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m2f Firm 5.1 12
Apprentice Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 6f Good To Firm 6 5
Median Auction Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Standard 6.1 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 6f Good To Firm 6.2 14
Handicap(Class 6) (3yo) 1m4f Good To Firm 6.3 12
Nursery(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Standard 6.4 10
Maiden Auction Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 6.5 11
Handicap(Class 4) 3yo) 1m1½f Good To Firm 7.05 4
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 6f Standard 7.15 11
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo) 6f Good To Firm 7.25 9
Selling Stakes(Class 6) (3yo+) 6f Good To Firm 7.35 8
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (3yo+) 1m4f Standard 7.45 14
Conditions Stakes(Class 3) (4yo+) 1m Good To Firm 7.55 4
Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 5) (2yo) 7f Good To Firm 8.1 12
Handicap(Class 5) ( 4yo+) 1m4f Standard 8.2 13
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo+) 1m4f Good To Firm 8.3 8
Handicap(Class 6) ( 3yo) 7f Good To Firm 8.4 11
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) 1m3f Standard 8.5 11
Handicap(Class 5) ( 3yo) ( 1m2½f Good To Firm 9 12
Handicap(Class 4) ( 3yo+) 7f Standard 9.2 8
AW /NH and TURF....................all of em in there
Instead of BACKING and LAYING IR STRATEGY above.....just backing the 59 selections to WIN, without laying IR gives the following PROFIT and COMMISSION thereon :-
PROFIT COMMISSION
3481 -349.05
ROI = 53%
May well be a "fluke" result due to in that 9 days there were many winners ( 24 from 59 selections).
PROFIT COMMISSION
3481 -349.05
ROI = 53%
May well be a "fluke" result due to in that 9 days there were many winners ( 24 from 59 selections).
Just after completing a check on BACKING to WIN the VALUE horses above the line in the period from 15.07.08 to 24.07.08 when rated races on 9 days. 8 good odds winners would have been obtained.....and profit figures etc were -
13150.4 NET PROFIT , after commission at 5%, from 329 bets.......at £100 stakes per selection...
ROI 39.96 %
So the system performed "well" both with getting HIGH ODDS winners in upper part of field size , as well as doing well re FAVs,JFS,and CFS winning.
The STRATEGY applied to the JULY 2008 period for figures above was based on analysis work previously carried out on APRIL and MAY 2008 that I know worked when applied to those races.
Bets were not restricted to 10 runner races only for above JULY 2008 profit figures.....every race
rated had STRATEGY applied to it. 242 races where STRATEGY applied to.
13150.4 NET PROFIT , after commission at 5%, from 329 bets.......at £100 stakes per selection...
ROI 39.96 %
So the system performed "well" both with getting HIGH ODDS winners in upper part of field size , as well as doing well re FAVs,JFS,and CFS winning.
The STRATEGY applied to the JULY 2008 period for figures above was based on analysis work previously carried out on APRIL and MAY 2008 that I know worked when applied to those races.
Bets were not restricted to 10 runner races only for above JULY 2008 profit figures.....every race
rated had STRATEGY applied to it. 242 races where STRATEGY applied to.
The check above was on races ABOVE THE LINE where odds met certain criteria.......so decided to check what result would be for same races if used horses BELOW LINE that met same odds criteria....and the result was-
-12949.95 NET LOSS AFTER COMMISSION
There would have been 333 bets on selections over 242 races in the 9 days checked in JULY 2008. There were the same number of winners BELOW THE LINE as ABOVE THE LINE ......
The above difference between ABOVE THE LINE and BELOW THE LINE indicates that the system did its job in getting good odds horses that had a chance to win ABOVE THE LINE!
In effect the "EDGE" is the system......................and betting where odds are "VALUE".
-12949.95 NET LOSS AFTER COMMISSION
There would have been 333 bets on selections over 242 races in the 9 days checked in JULY 2008. There were the same number of winners BELOW THE LINE as ABOVE THE LINE ......
The above difference between ABOVE THE LINE and BELOW THE LINE indicates that the system did its job in getting good odds horses that had a chance to win ABOVE THE LINE!
In effect the "EDGE" is the system......................and betting where odds are "VALUE".
I knew there was something WRONG re NUMBER of WINNERS ABOVE LINE and BELOW LINE........Error due to me extending figs re WINNERS into wrong column etc etc
There were 16 WINNERS at good odds( meeting criteria for this STRATEGY) ABOVE THE LINE and only 8 BELOW the LINE!
So the system had did it job of "finding" high odds winners in upper part of RATINGS.....
There were 16 WINNERS at good odds( meeting criteria for this STRATEGY) ABOVE THE LINE and only 8 BELOW the LINE!
So the system had did it job of "finding" high odds winners in upper part of RATINGS.....
Now checked APRIL 2008 rated races applying a STRATEGY backing horses meeting certain criteria from those ABOVE THE LINE and following results indicated using £100 stakes for each selection :-
NET PROFIT AFTER COMMISSION £ 33,524.15
NUMBER SELECTIONS 1,167
ROI 28.72%
NUMBER DAYS RATED 26
So STRATEGY still "working" well on races checked SO FAR.
NET PROFIT AFTER COMMISSION £ 33,524.15
NUMBER SELECTIONS 1,167
ROI 28.72%
NUMBER DAYS RATED 26
So STRATEGY still "working" well on races checked SO FAR.
Getting "bored" checking the STRATEGIES on previously rated races, as all they do is indicate PROFITS can be made on attacking FAVS and 2nd FAVS in BACK and LAY markets re WIN/PLACE.
The main reason the STRATEGIES "work", or "appear to work", is that the system ratings generally gets winners in the top 50% + 1 of field size as well as about 68% of high odds ones rated there too that place/win.
As my "obsession" has been at getting STRATEGIES re BACKING higher odds ones using the ratings etc ( have got them too!), then I just never wanted to check out STRATEGIES re FAVOURITES........re BACKING, as I wanted the system to get good odds winners in top rated etc......and if the system did that, then the system should then enable STRATEGIES for FAVOURITES ....in due course.
Just wish I had not been so "obsessed" re the HIGHER ODDS ones, as this has delayed me checking out STRATEGIES on SHORT ODDS ones !
If my mindset was like a LAYER, then of course would have checked out FAVOURITES STRATEGIES earlier.
It appears it should be possible to achieve at least 10 points a day profit after commission from STRATEGIES for FAVOURITES/2nd FAVS, and that was always my target in devising the system......but just wanted it to be gained on the HIGHER ODDS ones.
The liquidity is far better on SHORT ODDS ones .........so initially i will just exploit STRATEGIES on them !
Having "discovered" just how well the system does on attacking the low odds ones, as well as higher odds ones, then all I need to do now is get enough energy up to start using STRATEGIES and SYSTEM again ! As I still have umpteen "things to do" , other than betting, between now and Christmas.......it is likely I won't be in a position to fully concentrate on using the SYSTEM etc until I have resolved the other matters. Could do with time away from horse racing stats anyway .....so change should do me "good"! Will start early in new year to apply system etc.....
Thanks again Lord Bobbin for reminding me that i had not checked out STRATEGIES on FAVOURITES etc etc.......... Your "prod" got me finally round to checking out STRATEGIES on previously rated races........so the thread has proved useful for me.....and perhaps it also gives "hope" to those striving to find the grail!!!!!
Gl with bets.
The main reason the STRATEGIES "work", or "appear to work", is that the system ratings generally gets winners in the top 50% + 1 of field size as well as about 68% of high odds ones rated there too that place/win.
As my "obsession" has been at getting STRATEGIES re BACKING higher odds ones using the ratings etc ( have got them too!), then I just never wanted to check out STRATEGIES re FAVOURITES........re BACKING, as I wanted the system to get good odds winners in top rated etc......and if the system did that, then the system should then enable STRATEGIES for FAVOURITES ....in due course.
Just wish I had not been so "obsessed" re the HIGHER ODDS ones, as this has delayed me checking out STRATEGIES on SHORT ODDS ones !
If my mindset was like a LAYER, then of course would have checked out FAVOURITES STRATEGIES earlier.
It appears it should be possible to achieve at least 10 points a day profit after commission from STRATEGIES for FAVOURITES/2nd FAVS, and that was always my target in devising the system......but just wanted it to be gained on the HIGHER ODDS ones.
The liquidity is far better on SHORT ODDS ones .........so initially i will just exploit STRATEGIES on them !
Having "discovered" just how well the system does on attacking the low odds ones, as well as higher odds ones, then all I need to do now is get enough energy up to start using STRATEGIES and SYSTEM again ! As I still have umpteen "things to do" , other than betting, between now and Christmas.......it is likely I won't be in a position to fully concentrate on using the SYSTEM etc until I have resolved the other matters. Could do with time away from horse racing stats anyway .....so change should do me "good"! Will start early in new year to apply system etc.....
Thanks again Lord Bobbin for reminding me that i had not checked out STRATEGIES on FAVOURITES etc etc.......... Your "prod" got me finally round to checking out STRATEGIES on previously rated races........so the thread has proved useful for me.....and perhaps it also gives "hope" to those striving to find the grail!!!!!
Gl with bets.
Got enough energy up to check out applying similar STRATEGY re BACKING and LAYING 3rd favourites that are at "value" odds , using RANK position in ratings and the odds at BF SP.........and now it looks like this "value" based strategy "works" with system ratings on FAVS/2nd FAVS/3rd FAVS.......both in WIN and PLACE markets.
BACKING IN WIN MARKET
ROI 11.82409178
NUMBER
BETS 1046
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 4770.19
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.56041109
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 787
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 259
STRIKE-RATE 24.76099426
==============================================================================================
LAYING IN WIN MARKET
ROI 4.589363947
NUMBER
BETS 820
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 3307.43
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.03345122
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 141
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 679
STRIKE-RATE 82.80487805
=======================================================================================
LAYING IN PLACE MARKET TO GAIN 1 POINT LEVEL STAKES
ROI 6.470741902
NUMBER
BETS 820
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -765.6
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.933658537
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -387
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 433
STRIKE-RATE 52.80487805
===========================================================================
LAYING IN PLACE MARKET TO A FIXED LIABILITY OF 1 POINT
ROI 15.08273063
NUMBER
BETS 820
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -765.6
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.933658537
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -387
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 433
STRIKE-RATE 52.80487805
=================================================================
The PROFITS over the above number of bets on races checked from past ratings would have been -
WIN WIN LAYS LAYS
MARKET MARKET MARKET MARKET
TO GAIN FIXED
1 POINT LIABILITY
BACK LAY DAILY DAILY
DAILY DAILY PLACE PLACE
PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT
OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS
123.68 151.79 49.54 115.95
=======================================================================================
From the check carried out on the number of bets .....
NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER
BETS 1046 BETS 820 BETS 820 BETS 820
for above 4 STRATEGIES I am interested to hear whether the STATS above indicate the system, combined with "VALUE" STRATEGY, is demonstrating a STRONG EDGE ........MEDIUM EDGE....or SMALL EDGE.
As the AVERAGE ODDS are at BFSP for LAYS, then IMO this is as near to the "grail" as I can get to and should be "good enough" STRATEGIES to use "in due course"!
Lord Bobbin has stirred me to check out these STRATEGIES.....so he/she in particular should be interested in results of checks SO FAR!
GL with bets today.
BACKING IN WIN MARKET
ROI 11.82409178
NUMBER
BETS 1046
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 4770.19
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.56041109
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 787
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 259
STRIKE-RATE 24.76099426
==============================================================================================
LAYING IN WIN MARKET
ROI 4.589363947
NUMBER
BETS 820
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 3307.43
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.03345122
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 141
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 679
STRIKE-RATE 82.80487805
=======================================================================================
LAYING IN PLACE MARKET TO GAIN 1 POINT LEVEL STAKES
ROI 6.470741902
NUMBER
BETS 820
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -765.6
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.933658537
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -387
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 433
STRIKE-RATE 52.80487805
===========================================================================
LAYING IN PLACE MARKET TO A FIXED LIABILITY OF 1 POINT
ROI 15.08273063
NUMBER
BETS 820
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -765.6
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.933658537
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -387
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 433
STRIKE-RATE 52.80487805
=================================================================
The PROFITS over the above number of bets on races checked from past ratings would have been -
WIN WIN LAYS LAYS
MARKET MARKET MARKET MARKET
TO GAIN FIXED
1 POINT LIABILITY
BACK LAY DAILY DAILY
DAILY DAILY PLACE PLACE
PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT
OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS
123.68 151.79 49.54 115.95
=======================================================================================
From the check carried out on the number of bets .....
NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER
BETS 1046 BETS 820 BETS 820 BETS 820
for above 4 STRATEGIES I am interested to hear whether the STATS above indicate the system, combined with "VALUE" STRATEGY, is demonstrating a STRONG EDGE ........MEDIUM EDGE....or SMALL EDGE.
As the AVERAGE ODDS are at BFSP for LAYS, then IMO this is as near to the "grail" as I can get to and should be "good enough" STRATEGIES to use "in due course"!
Lord Bobbin has stirred me to check out these STRATEGIES.....so he/she in particular should be interested in results of checks SO FAR!
GL with bets today.
DFC, your question. Is this the Holy Grail certainly not zip will give you 2 losers ever day starting tomorrow and it is nothing to do with the Holy Grail by the way my take on the Holy Grail is something us mere mortals cannot achieve .
zip - so you reckon that laying 364 FAVOURITES over 33 days at average odds ( BF SP) 2.95-1 and getting 277 winning lays is near "grail" level? ie 8.39 average number of losers over 33 days !
2 lays a day is well short of 8 zip!
2 lays a day is well short of 8 zip!
At SP odds the lays average 2.55......so it would be expected that there might be 142 losers......but there are only 87 amongst the lays on favourites over the 33 days.......
At SP odds of 2.55-1 you would expect there would be 39.21% of winning horses.
If you lay 364 horses at average odds 2.55-1, then you would expect 142 horses winning.
The system, together with laying at "value" odds strategy, using RANK position in ratings and odds, only has 87 losers ( ie horses that win) if selecting lays using this STRATEGY.
ie 364 lays with 277 of them not winning over 33 days = 8.39 average number of winning lays over the 33 days........
Is this not well above average zip ?
If you lay 364 horses at average odds 2.55-1, then you would expect 142 horses winning.
The system, together with laying at "value" odds strategy, using RANK position in ratings and odds, only has 87 losers ( ie horses that win) if selecting lays using this STRATEGY.
ie 364 lays with 277 of them not winning over 33 days = 8.39 average number of winning lays over the 33 days........
Is this not well above average zip ?
DFC, your sample is far too small. You're going to need at least 10x that sample size before a result becomes significant.
This is one reason why systemites often lose. They collect some stats and look for an edge. After collecting a few hundred samples they find a system with a 20% edge and think 'yahoo, this is the one' and start betting. Often this is just the time the data starts to rebalance and all their winners turn into losers. After losing their shirt they have a sample size that is about right and they see that their wonderous system actually has an edge of -5%.
One winning system could be to look for a system based on a few hundred samples that is heavily positive and then start doing the opposite ! I suspect you'd find it quite productive.
Big numbers, like breasts, are always the best (well usually)
This is one reason why systemites often lose. They collect some stats and look for an edge. After collecting a few hundred samples they find a system with a 20% edge and think 'yahoo, this is the one' and start betting. Often this is just the time the data starts to rebalance and all their winners turn into losers. After losing their shirt they have a sample size that is about right and they see that their wonderous system actually has an edge of -5%.
One winning system could be to look for a system based on a few hundred samples that is heavily positive and then start doing the opposite ! I suspect you'd find it quite productive.
Big numbers, like breasts, are always the best (well usually)
If you did the "opposite" re BACKING and LAYING the FAV/2nd FAV/ 3rd FAV and went against the system......you would lose !
So that would be a "mad" way to go........
After checking almost every race that was rated covering the months of APRIL, MAY and JULY 2008 , and selecting according to VALUE and RANK position in ratings as to whether to BACK or LAY such "favourites", amounting to HUNDREDS of races of different type/distance/field size / goings etc etc..........then
attaining ROI on 1,046 BACK selections of 11.82409178 and ROI on PLACE LAY selections of 820 lays of 15.08273063 %, then to go against such stats would be lunacy IMO......
Thanks for view though....
So that would be a "mad" way to go........
After checking almost every race that was rated covering the months of APRIL, MAY and JULY 2008 , and selecting according to VALUE and RANK position in ratings as to whether to BACK or LAY such "favourites", amounting to HUNDREDS of races of different type/distance/field size / goings etc etc..........then
attaining ROI on 1,046 BACK selections of 11.82409178 and ROI on PLACE LAY selections of 820 lays of 15.08273063 %, then to go against such stats would be lunacy IMO......
Thanks for view though....
Remember.......the % ROI calculations are at the "sharp" end of market where the odds are meant to be at their most efficient.....
BTW the check just on FAVOURITES in APRIL and MAY 2008 covered 971 races where BACKS selected by criteria totalled only 389......and LAYS selected by criteria amounted to 364....
So no selections were made for FAVOURITES in 218 races.....as the criteria was not met.
So on FAVOURITES checked....it is on almost 1,000 races . Not an "insignificant" check IMO........at the "sharp" end of market.
So no selections were made for FAVOURITES in 218 races.....as the criteria was not met.
So on FAVOURITES checked....it is on almost 1,000 races . Not an "insignificant" check IMO........at the "sharp" end of market.
Latest update on previously rated races and applying set STRATEGIES for BACKING and LAYING in WIN and PLACE markets with selections meeting "VALUE" criteria and using RANK position of 1st/2nd/3rd favs.......
Been checking out 3rd favourites position for some races in JULY/AUGUST 2008 and the cumulative figures now are ....
WIN WIN LAYS LAYS
MARKET MARKET MARKET MARKET
TO GAIN FIXED
1 POINT LIABILITY
BACK LAY DAILY DAILY
DAILY DAILY PLACE PLACE
PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT
ROI OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS
167.43 170.7 54.95 118.59
0.17 4.7 5.4 13.39
32.81 44.78 13.16 53.66
7.5 32.46 11.51 20.61
19.73 47.67 9.57 16.12
43.75 18.91 5.41 2.64
63.47 22.18 9.9 12.17
ROI 14.05793451 ROI 4.605025332 ROI 6.432543167 ROI 13.83118928
NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER
BETS 1191 BETS 881 BETS 881 BETS 881
TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
BF SP BF SP BF SP BF SP
ODDS 5871.73 ODDS 3706.82 ODDS -854.25 ODDS -854.25
AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE
ODDS ODDS ODDS ODDS
PER BET 4.930083963 PER BET 4.207514188 PER BET -0.969636776 PER BET -0.969636776
NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER
LOSING LOSING LOSING LOSING
BETS 906 BETS 147 BETS -411 BETS -411
NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER
WINNING WINNING WINNING WINNING
BETS 285 BETS 734 BETS 470 BETS 470
STRIKE-RATE 23.92947103 STRIKE-RATE 83.31441544 STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765 STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765
==============================================================================================
So ROI on WIN BACKS has increased.......and slight decrease in PLACE LAY ROI to fixed liability.
The 3rd favourite BACKS and LAYS are a bit more "volatile" from day to day........but still average about 6 points profit over 10 days checked in JULY/AUGUST 2008. 277 races were checked re 3rd favourites in recent check since I last posted ....with 145 BACK bets in WIN market meeting criteria for selection....and only 61 LAYS meeting criteria .
Over all ....SO FAR......averaging approximately 14 points profit daily re carrying out this check on FAVS/2nd FAVS/3rd FAVS..........
Nothing being thrown up that puts me off STRATEGIES yet......
GL with bets today.
Been checking out 3rd favourites position for some races in JULY/AUGUST 2008 and the cumulative figures now are ....
WIN WIN LAYS LAYS
MARKET MARKET MARKET MARKET
TO GAIN FIXED
1 POINT LIABILITY
BACK LAY DAILY DAILY
DAILY DAILY PLACE PLACE
PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT
ROI OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS OR LOSS
167.43 170.7 54.95 118.59
0.17 4.7 5.4 13.39
32.81 44.78 13.16 53.66
7.5 32.46 11.51 20.61
19.73 47.67 9.57 16.12
43.75 18.91 5.41 2.64
63.47 22.18 9.9 12.17
ROI 14.05793451 ROI 4.605025332 ROI 6.432543167 ROI 13.83118928
NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER
BETS 1191 BETS 881 BETS 881 BETS 881
TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
BF SP BF SP BF SP BF SP
ODDS 5871.73 ODDS 3706.82 ODDS -854.25 ODDS -854.25
AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE
ODDS ODDS ODDS ODDS
PER BET 4.930083963 PER BET 4.207514188 PER BET -0.969636776 PER BET -0.969636776
NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER
LOSING LOSING LOSING LOSING
BETS 906 BETS 147 BETS -411 BETS -411
NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER NUMBER
WINNING WINNING WINNING WINNING
BETS 285 BETS 734 BETS 470 BETS 470
STRIKE-RATE 23.92947103 STRIKE-RATE 83.31441544 STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765 STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765
==============================================================================================
So ROI on WIN BACKS has increased.......and slight decrease in PLACE LAY ROI to fixed liability.
The 3rd favourite BACKS and LAYS are a bit more "volatile" from day to day........but still average about 6 points profit over 10 days checked in JULY/AUGUST 2008. 277 races were checked re 3rd favourites in recent check since I last posted ....with 145 BACK bets in WIN market meeting criteria for selection....and only 61 LAYS meeting criteria .
Over all ....SO FAR......averaging approximately 14 points profit daily re carrying out this check on FAVS/2nd FAVS/3rd FAVS..........
Nothing being thrown up that puts me off STRATEGIES yet......
GL with bets today.
BACK
DAILY
PROFIT
OR LOSS
167.43
0.17
32.81
7.5
19.73
43.75
63.47
ROI 14.05793451
NUMBER
BETS 1191
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 5871.73
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.930083963
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 906
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 285
STRIKE-RATE 23.92947103
DAILY
PROFIT
OR LOSS
167.43
0.17
32.81
7.5
19.73
43.75
63.47
ROI 14.05793451
NUMBER
BETS 1191
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 5871.73
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.930083963
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 906
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 285
STRIKE-RATE 23.92947103
WIN
MARKET
LAY
DAILY
PROFIT
OR LOSS
170.7
4.7
44.78
32.46
47.67
18.91
22.18
ROI 4.605025332
NUMBER
BETS 881
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 3706.82
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.207514188
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 147
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 734
STRIKE-RATE 83.31441544
MARKET
LAY
DAILY
PROFIT
OR LOSS
170.7
4.7
44.78
32.46
47.67
18.91
22.18
ROI 4.605025332
NUMBER
BETS 881
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 3706.82
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.207514188
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 147
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 734
STRIKE-RATE 83.31441544
LAYS
MARKET
TO GAIN
1 POINT
DAILY
PLACE
PROFIT
OR LOSS
54.95
5.4
13.16
11.51
9.57
5.41
9.9
ROI 6.432543167
NUMBER
BETS 881
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -854.25
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.969636776
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -411
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 470
STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765
MARKET
TO GAIN
1 POINT
DAILY
PLACE
PROFIT
OR LOSS
54.95
5.4
13.16
11.51
9.57
5.41
9.9
ROI 6.432543167
NUMBER
BETS 881
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -854.25
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.969636776
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -411
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 470
STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765
LAYS
MARKET
FIXED
LIABILITY
DAILY
PLACE
PROFIT
OR LOSS
118.59
13.39
53.66
20.61
16.12
2.64
12.17
ROI 13.83118928
NUMBER
BETS 881
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -854.25
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.969636776
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -411
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 470
STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765
MARKET
FIXED
LIABILITY
DAILY
PLACE
PROFIT
OR LOSS
118.59
13.39
53.66
20.61
16.12
2.64
12.17
ROI 13.83118928
NUMBER
BETS 881
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -854.25
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.969636776
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -411
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 470
STRIKE-RATE 53.34846765
Too small a sample.
There is a difference between 'not insignificant' and 'significant'.
There is a difference between 'not insignificant' and 'significant'.
DrWhom.....I know that many many will say ..."too small" a sample.....BUT......the races rated cover every type and fieldsize etc etc ....and as there are over 1,000 races being checked out re applying SET STRATEGIES etc......then the consistency of how system rates races is enabling "VALUE" selections to be obtained.
Remember.......each race is being attacked re FAV/2ndFAV and 3rd FAV......for example -
just selecting a race at random -
NEWBURY
13:30 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good
1,Demeanour 16-1
2,Suakin Dancer 40-1
3,Sharpener 5-2F
4,Brooksby 50-1
5,Prima Fonteyn 100-1
6,Miss Tango Hotel 12-1
7,Ballyalla 1ST 6-1 3RD F
8,Costa Lotta 66-1
9,Slant 3RD 40-1 1&3 £110.50
10,Peninsula Girl 13-2
------------------------------------------
11,Super Midge 11-1
12,Intrepid Lady 25-1
13,Solitary 9-2 2ND F
14,Crown Affair 50-1
15,Order Order 25-1
16,Perfect Pride 2ND 16-1
17,Fly Butterfly 50-1
18,Lily Waters 66-1
======================================================================================
The FAV is 5-2 and in top 3 rated .....so 1 point backed to win only.....would be lost......-1 point
2nd FAV is below the line ( 50%+1 of field size) and is at VALUE odds to lay considering the RANK position and odds . So would be layed WIN and PLACE ....gaining 2 points less commission
The 3rd FAV won .....but as only 6-1 SP and ranked 7th ...to me this is NOT "VALUE" considering rank position....therefore not a BACK or LAY........
So PROFIT of 0.90 points after commission at 5% say....from that race.......
The system consistently "finds" "VALUE" selections....so it should consistently produce returns that enable profit to be made.
Still have a few checks to carry out ........if I have time ....but SO FAR the ROI from BACKS in WIN market and LAYS in PLACE market to FIXED LIABILITY are "stunning" IMO now.......considering just how accurate the odds are meant to be etc etc at short odds end of market!
Remember.......each race is being attacked re FAV/2ndFAV and 3rd FAV......for example -
just selecting a race at random -
NEWBURY
13:30 Maiden Fillies´ Stakes(Class 4) (2yo) 6f Good
1,Demeanour 16-1
2,Suakin Dancer 40-1
3,Sharpener 5-2F
4,Brooksby 50-1
5,Prima Fonteyn 100-1
6,Miss Tango Hotel 12-1
7,Ballyalla 1ST 6-1 3RD F
8,Costa Lotta 66-1
9,Slant 3RD 40-1 1&3 £110.50
10,Peninsula Girl 13-2
------------------------------------------
11,Super Midge 11-1
12,Intrepid Lady 25-1
13,Solitary 9-2 2ND F
14,Crown Affair 50-1
15,Order Order 25-1
16,Perfect Pride 2ND 16-1
17,Fly Butterfly 50-1
18,Lily Waters 66-1
======================================================================================
The FAV is 5-2 and in top 3 rated .....so 1 point backed to win only.....would be lost......-1 point
2nd FAV is below the line ( 50%+1 of field size) and is at VALUE odds to lay considering the RANK position and odds . So would be layed WIN and PLACE ....gaining 2 points less commission
The 3rd FAV won .....but as only 6-1 SP and ranked 7th ...to me this is NOT "VALUE" considering rank position....therefore not a BACK or LAY........
So PROFIT of 0.90 points after commission at 5% say....from that race.......
The system consistently "finds" "VALUE" selections....so it should consistently produce returns that enable profit to be made.
Still have a few checks to carry out ........if I have time ....but SO FAR the ROI from BACKS in WIN market and LAYS in PLACE market to FIXED LIABILITY are "stunning" IMO now.......considering just how accurate the odds are meant to be etc etc at short odds end of market!
Look, the last thing I want to do is rain on your parade but sample size really is an issue and its destroyed many system players before you because they've jumped the gun. Just look at any of the 'system builder' type websites that are around. You can create great systems any time you want but will they walk into the future the same way as they've performed in the past, particularly if they're based on a small sample ? 99% won't but then again 1% will, so you may be lucky. Have fun.....
As there can be over 100 FACTORS taking into account when rating a race......the complexity of system should stand test of time, as all of those FACTORS won't disappear overnight ...unless the end of world is nigh.....which it might be
This is NOT a "simple" system DrW........so should stand up to rating future races .....
Thanks for making the point re "SMALL" sample of races.....but as at least 1,000 various races covered ...AW/NH/TURF re rated races.....then any rain that falls should only be a temporary shower.....
.....which it might beThis is NOT a "simple" system DrW........so should stand up to rating future races .....
Thanks for making the point re "SMALL" sample of races.....but as at least 1,000 various races covered ...AW/NH/TURF re rated races.....then any rain that falls should only be a temporary shower.....
More checks carried out on FAVOURITES. The over all position is now re BACKING and LAYING in WIN and PLACE markets for the 4 STRATEGIES, using RANK position and odds where "VALUE" is as follows :-
WIN
MARKET
BACK
DAILY
PROFIT
OR LOSS
TOTAL
PROFIT 207.66
FAVS
9 DAYS 40.4
33 DAYS 32.81
2ND FAVS
13 DAYS 7.5
21 DAYS 19.73
3RD FAVS
10 DAYS 43.75
16 DAYS 63.47
ROI 16.14774495
NUMBER
BETS 1286
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 6162.93
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.792325039
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 966
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 320
STRIKE-RATE 24.88335925
=================================================================================================
WIN
MARKET
LAY
DAILY
PROFIT
OR LOSS
TOTAL
PROFIT 190.44
FAVS
9 DAYS 24.44
33 DAYS 44.78
2ND FAVS
13 DAYS 32.46
21 DAYS 47.67
3RD FAVS
10 DAYS 18.91
16 DAYS 22.18
ROI 4.897669466
NUMBER
BETS 949
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 3888.38
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.097344573
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 159
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 790
STRIKE-RATE 83.2455216
================================================================================================
LAYS
MARKET
TO GAIN
1 POINT
DAILY
PLACE
PROFIT
OR LOSS
TOTAL
PROFIT 71.25
FAVS
9 DAYS 21.7
33 DAYS 13.16
2ND FAVS
13 DAYS 11.51
21 DAYS 9.57
3RD FAVS
10 DAYS 5.41
16 DAYS 9.9
ROI 7.92212413
NUMBER
BETS 949
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -899.38
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.947713383
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -444
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 505
STRIKE-RATE 53.21390938
===============================================================================================
LAYS
MARKET
FIXED
LIABILITY
DAILY
PLACE
PROFIT
OR LOSS
TOTAL
PROFIT 139.83
FAVS
9 DAYS 34.63
33 DAYS 53.66
2ND FAVS
13 DAYS 20.61
21 DAYS 16.12
3RD FAVS
10 DAYS 2.64
16 DAYS 12.17
ROI 15.49294214
NUMBER
BETS 949
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -899.38
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.947713383
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -444
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 505
STRIKE-RATE 53.21390938
==================================================================================================
ROI has "improved" with carrying out more checks on races for all 4 STRATEGIES....so still nothing to indicate the STRATEGIES won't "work" using system ratings.
Still have more days to check .....but hard to see STRATEGIES ending in a LOSS position.....as consistently "VALUE" selections stand out using system ratings .
I see on another thread that the point is being made that it is important to find "VALUE" on bets......and hard to "pick winners".
Generally I agree on the point made......as generally i can normally "see" where the winner might come from.....but "knowing" a horse will win is a feeling I rarely have. So USING "VALUE" as the key to selections ( BACKING or LAYING) , combined with using system RATINGS, has to be way to make consistent profits.
Gl with bets.
WIN
MARKET
BACK
DAILY
PROFIT
OR LOSS
TOTAL
PROFIT 207.66
FAVS
9 DAYS 40.4
33 DAYS 32.81
2ND FAVS
13 DAYS 7.5
21 DAYS 19.73
3RD FAVS
10 DAYS 43.75
16 DAYS 63.47
ROI 16.14774495
NUMBER
BETS 1286
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 6162.93
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.792325039
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 966
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 320
STRIKE-RATE 24.88335925
=================================================================================================
WIN
MARKET
LAY
DAILY
PROFIT
OR LOSS
TOTAL
PROFIT 190.44
FAVS
9 DAYS 24.44
33 DAYS 44.78
2ND FAVS
13 DAYS 32.46
21 DAYS 47.67
3RD FAVS
10 DAYS 18.91
16 DAYS 22.18
ROI 4.897669466
NUMBER
BETS 949
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS 3888.38
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET 4.097344573
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS 159
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 790
STRIKE-RATE 83.2455216
================================================================================================
LAYS
MARKET
TO GAIN
1 POINT
DAILY
PLACE
PROFIT
OR LOSS
TOTAL
PROFIT 71.25
FAVS
9 DAYS 21.7
33 DAYS 13.16
2ND FAVS
13 DAYS 11.51
21 DAYS 9.57
3RD FAVS
10 DAYS 5.41
16 DAYS 9.9
ROI 7.92212413
NUMBER
BETS 949
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -899.38
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.947713383
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -444
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 505
STRIKE-RATE 53.21390938
===============================================================================================
LAYS
MARKET
FIXED
LIABILITY
DAILY
PLACE
PROFIT
OR LOSS
TOTAL
PROFIT 139.83
FAVS
9 DAYS 34.63
33 DAYS 53.66
2ND FAVS
13 DAYS 20.61
21 DAYS 16.12
3RD FAVS
10 DAYS 2.64
16 DAYS 12.17
ROI 15.49294214
NUMBER
BETS 949
TOTAL
BF SP
ODDS -899.38
AVERAGE
ODDS
PER BET -0.947713383
NUMBER
LOSING
BETS -444
NUMBER
WINNING
BETS 505
STRIKE-RATE 53.21390938
==================================================================================================
ROI has "improved" with carrying out more checks on races for all 4 STRATEGIES....so still nothing to indicate the STRATEGIES won't "work" using system ratings.
Still have more days to check .....but hard to see STRATEGIES ending in a LOSS position.....as consistently "VALUE" selections stand out using system ratings .
I see on another thread that the point is being made that it is important to find "VALUE" on bets......and hard to "pick winners".
Generally I agree on the point made......as generally i can normally "see" where the winner might come from.....but "knowing" a horse will win is a feeling I rarely have. So USING "VALUE" as the key to selections ( BACKING or LAYING) , combined with using system RATINGS, has to be way to make consistent profits.
Gl with bets.
HORSE RACING NOTHING MORE THAN A COMPLETE LOTTERY.
CLOSE YOUR EYES STICK A PIN IN THE PAPER AND YOU GET THE SAME RESULTS 9IF NOT BETTER) THAN SOME MORON STUDYING POINTLESS FORM
ITS A HORSE FFS! AN ANIMAL IT DOES WHAT IT WANTS WHEN IT WANTS!!!!! CANT REMEMBER HOW MANY TIMES IVE PROVED THIS ON THE HORSE RACING FORUM.
CLOWNS SPENDING HRS STUDYING FORM ONLY TO FIND LOSER AFTER LOSER. I JUST PICKED ANY OLD RANDOM HORSE AND ALWAYS HAD WINNING THREADS
LOTTERY!!!! YOU ARE DELUSIONAL IF YOU THINK STUDYING FORM MAKES ANY BIT OF DIFFERENCE
CLOSE YOUR EYES STICK A PIN IN THE PAPER AND YOU GET THE SAME RESULTS 9IF NOT BETTER) THAN SOME MORON STUDYING POINTLESS FORM
ITS A HORSE FFS! AN ANIMAL IT DOES WHAT IT WANTS WHEN IT WANTS!!!!! CANT REMEMBER HOW MANY TIMES IVE PROVED THIS ON THE HORSE RACING FORUM.
CLOWNS SPENDING HRS STUDYING FORM ONLY TO FIND LOSER AFTER LOSER. I JUST PICKED ANY OLD RANDOM HORSE AND ALWAYS HAD WINNING THREADS
LOTTERY!!!! YOU ARE DELUSIONAL IF YOU THINK STUDYING FORM MAKES ANY BIT OF DIFFERENCE
With respect, I-Only-Lay, that's drivel. It's true that a lot of the time horse races are a bit of a lottery. However, if you're very selective, you can find races where a horse clearly has more class than the others lining up against it. That still doesn't mean that it'll win, so you have to make sure that the odds are sufficiently generous that they factor in the chances of the horse simply not firing that day.
I can assure you that I was hopeless at picking out successful horses 18 months ago. 12 months ago I was better but still not really profitable. Over the last eight months I've been able to make a modest profit - stretching to a very solid profit (given my stakes) over the last few months. Over 18 months I've become gradually better and better at reading the form, so I can assure you that it's no lottery. You do need to be selective and look for generous odds though.
And you can actually apply the 'an animal does what it wants when it wants' argument to human-based sports too. How often do we see a football team being put out that, on paper, looks like it should rout the opposition, but in reality struggles to craft even one goal? But as long as the odds will be compensating you well for that side winning, you can afford the occasional honker of a performance.
I can assure you that I was hopeless at picking out successful horses 18 months ago. 12 months ago I was better but still not really profitable. Over the last eight months I've been able to make a modest profit - stretching to a very solid profit (given my stakes) over the last few months. Over 18 months I've become gradually better and better at reading the form, so I can assure you that it's no lottery. You do need to be selective and look for generous odds though.
And you can actually apply the 'an animal does what it wants when it wants' argument to human-based sports too. How often do we see a football team being put out that, on paper, looks like it should rout the opposition, but in reality struggles to craft even one goal? But as long as the odds will be compensating you well for that side winning, you can afford the occasional honker of a performance.
You obviously know little about HORSE RACING then.........
A LOTTERY is a LOTTERY ........no knowledge required.......
A LOTTERY is a LOTTERY ........no knowledge required.......
DFC,
Have you found a way to quickly calculate your strategy result over the past races? I agree DrWhom saying 2 months results gives you too less sample size ... I found so many strategies that performed well for few months and very poor afterwards.
Have you been able to automatize your system? How it works?
On my side one month ago I decided to keep only the strategies that performed good during my live test and now I can see a positive result in my P/L.
GL!
Have you found a way to quickly calculate your strategy result over the past races? I agree DrWhom saying 2 months results gives you too less sample size ... I found so many strategies that performed well for few months and very poor afterwards.
Have you been able to automatize your system? How it works?
On my side one month ago I decided to keep only the strategies that performed good during my live test and now I can see a positive result in my P/L.
GL!
i-only-lay 03 Nov 11 14:55
HORSE RACING NOTHING MORE THAN A COMPLETE LOTTERY.
================================================================================================
You state it is a "complete lottery"..........................................so holding that view indicates you know very very little re horse racing ....so you just view it as a "lottery".
Making such a daft statement as "no knowledge is needed for horse racing"......indicates just how little you know.
HORSE RACING NOTHING MORE THAN A COMPLETE LOTTERY.
================================================================================================
You state it is a "complete lottery"..........................................so holding that view indicates you know very very little re horse racing ....so you just view it as a "lottery".
Making such a daft statement as "no knowledge is needed for horse racing"......indicates just how little you know.
It is NOT 2 months....it is mainly APRIL and MAY 2008 plus JULY 2008/AUGUST 2008 ........though from "glances" at other months where races were rated ....MARCH 2009.....NOVEMBER 2008 .....the STRATEGIES outlined above "work"........though have not carried out detailed checking yet.
Over 1,000 races at least have been rated ....and ROI indicated SO FAR shows the system did operate to good standard then........therefor no "reason" why it should not "work" throughout a year....as KEY FACTORS still apply etc etc
Over 1,000 races at least have been rated ....and ROI indicated SO FAR shows the system did operate to good standard then........therefor no "reason" why it should not "work" throughout a year....as KEY FACTORS still apply etc etc
Great! 1000 races looks a large enough dataset.
What do you wait for implementing the system live?
What do you wait for implementing the system live?
To do it "professionally" I need certain "repairs" to a REPORT that computerised system should do.......Once sorted ....waiting on friend to get this done.....then hopefully i will be in a position to start using system again the way i want to use it!
Suspect it will be JANUARY before in a position to do it the way i want to do it .....
Good to hear you are benefiting from the time spent A on horse race betting......
I've gotta go help with tea now ....
GL with bets.
Suspect it will be JANUARY before in a position to do it the way i want to do it .....
Good to hear you are benefiting from the time spent A on horse race betting
......I've gotta go help with tea now ....
GL with bets.
Not read all thread...is this the Holy Grail then? Cheers
DI - I asked the question earlier on thread re are results showing ROIs on the 4 strategies.......
The ROIs appear to be very "high" considering the stats are bets at the "sharp" end of markets......16% re BACKING 1st/2nd/3rd favourites to WIN......and about the same on LAYING in PLACE market with
h fixed liability.
Considering number of selections (approximately 1,286 on BACKS and 949 on LAYS ) the ROIs are IMO "high" when betting at "sharp" end of markets.....................
What do you consider the level of ROI would be for a "holy grail" level of achievement? ( please don't say 100%.........as that would be impossible!)
The ROIs appear to be very "high" considering the stats are bets at the "sharp" end of markets......16% re BACKING 1st/2nd/3rd favourites to WIN......and about the same on LAYING in PLACE market with
h fixed liability.
Considering number of selections (approximately 1,286 on BACKS and 949 on LAYS ) the ROIs are IMO "high" when betting at "sharp" end of markets.....................
What do you consider the level of ROI would be for a "holy grail" level of achievement? ( please don't say 100%.........as that would be impossible!)
In the meantime you could manually test your system, right? So that you could confirm (or not) the test you've done on past races and see if the ROI is ~ the same as the one calculated here.
Or is too much effort?
If you need help (from IT point of view) just say it ...
Or is too much effort?
If you need help (from IT point of view) just say it ...
There is one STRATEGY that indicates ROI of over 200%( near 300% actually).....but this can only be attacked through bets through BOOKMAKERS.....and the runs of losers are long.......but the wins when they come are "huge" ....Only for certain race types though.....and would need a "team" placing bets ....which of course the bookies would then probably NOT PAY OUT under their rules etc etc
I've convinced myself acornel that the SYSTEM of rating races operates to generally a good standard.....but it does take a lotta energy to apply it....even with computerised system !
Therefore .....really NEED one of the "REPORT" parts of the system to "work" properly ( seems not to work on races rated after 2009.......probably a date related "problem" in programming by friend). Once he fixes this "problem" i can then operate initially at an efficient level with STRATEGIES attacking FAVOURITES markets.
Thanks for offer ....but trust you understand that the friend is who I rely on ....and he deserves reward for all time input in past etc etc
So not using SYSTEM til the REPORT part works.........Suspect will be JANUARY before I will be in position to bet professonally!
Therefore .....really NEED one of the "REPORT" parts of the system to "work" properly ( seems not to work on races rated after 2009.......probably a date related "problem" in programming by friend). Once he fixes this "problem" i can then operate initially at an efficient level with STRATEGIES attacking FAVOURITES markets.
Thanks for offer ....but trust you understand that the friend is who I rely on ....and he deserves reward for all time input in past etc etc
So not using SYSTEM til the REPORT part works.........Suspect will be JANUARY before I will be in position to bet professonally!
I must say, I still don't entirely understand the point of this thread for anyone who doesn't have DFC's system. (So, that's essentially DFC then...)
LB - as said before ...initially the thread was just a "reaction" to some other thread that was casting doubt on betting on HORSES/FOOTBALL........after a few drinks........BUT your post re FAVOURITES did trigger me checking out how SYSTEM performed re indicating VALUE bets .......and it has performed well SO FAR!
From my point of view it would be good to hear from others who "know" ....just how "good" ..."bad" or mediocre the ROIs are re 4 STRATEGIES indicated above.......
From my point of view it would be good to hear from others who "know" ....just how "good" ..."bad" or mediocre the ROIs are re 4 STRATEGIES indicated above.......
A "professional" previously indicated to me that an ROI in PLACE market on LAYING of 5% was a "very good" standard to achieve........
As the ROI in PLACE LAY market is currently near 16%.......then I am pretty sure that this would be well above average when betting at average odds of 0.94-1 in that market.
The BACKING ROI is also at 16% level after 1,286 backs....at average odds on 4.79-1 ......I believe it is well above average......but just "good" is it?
As the ROI in PLACE LAY market is currently near 16%.......then I am pretty sure that this would be well above average when betting at average odds of 0.94-1 in that market.
The BACKING ROI is also at 16% level after 1,286 backs....at average odds on 4.79-1 ......I believe it is well above average......but just "good" is it?
Presuming your winnings arent going to be subject to Premium Charge, ROI of 16% for PLACE LAY and BACKING bets sounds pretty much like a HOLY GRAIL to me. Sounds like you've put a lot of work in DFC...nice going. Does it throw up several bets a day and have you noticed any signs of the edge decreasing any during the period covered?
Thanks for view DI.
Just after checking some days in MARCH 2009 ( period where I posted RATINGS on here ....but at that time had not twigged how to use em!!!! I knew they were ap to reasonable standard though .....but for most looking at them it would be "hard" to see that!)......and the check on FAVOURITES on races rated was as follows -
03.03.09 -0.226 0.66 1.46 3.138257576
3.3 14 BACK
3.2 5 LAY
4.5 6 BACK
5.2 9 LAY
2.1 9 BACK
3.4 7 NS
4.1 13 NS
4.4 9 LAYABOVELINE
5.1 13 BACK
04.03.09 -1.48 2.55 2.39 2.812721396
4.2 12 LAYABOVELINE
5.2 13 BACK
3 9 NS
4 7 LAYABOVELINE
5 13 LAY
2.1 11 BACK
3.1 8 NS
4.1 9 LAY
4.4 5 BACK
5.1 6 NS
7.2 10 NS
8.2 11 LAY
8.5 12 LAY
9.2 7 BACK
05.03.09 3.5505 -1.26 -1.17 -2.06122449
3.15 4 NSODSONWIN
3.45 9 NS
4.2 12 BACK
4.5 12 BACK
3.25 8 LAYABOVELINE
3.55 8 BACK
4.3 8 NS
5.3 12 LAYABOVELINE
3 5 LAYABOVELINE
3.35 7 LAY
4.05 3 NS
7.2 3 NSODDSONWIN
8.5 8 LAY
06.03.09 17.444 -2.99 -0.13 -1.559080095
4.05 4 BACK
5.15 6 BACK
3.05 12 BACK
4.15 8 LAY
4.5 11 LAYABOVELINE
2.45 7 BACK
3.2 8 NS
3.55 11 BACK
2.35 6 BACK
4.2 9 BACK
4.55 5 BACK
5.3 15 LAY
6.5 12 LAY
7.5 11 LAY
8.2 8 LAY
9.2 9 BACK
======================================================================
Thoses were the only races I tackled those days........so plenty bets just with FAVS.
The time of race...the number of runners are shown.....and total PROFIT or LOSS is shown for each day.
The TOTALS for each of 4 STRATEGIES are shown below for the 4 days above
19.2885 -1.04 2.55 2.330674387
So over 20 points from 4 days with FAVS SO FAR in MARCH 2009.
Generally the system ratings are up to good standard ....IMO......so no signs YET that the STRATEGIES won't "work".
No idea how PREMIUM CHARGE will effect me.........Will be a while before I would be dragged into it I suspect.....Will deal with that IF it happens ....which it may well do.....
RACING is definitely becoming harder to rate IMO........mainly due to overseas trainers participating in BRITISH races...especially IRISH trainers. AW ...TURF and NH taken on by them. So "odd" results wil occur frequently ...but hopefully the system will still be operating to good standard due to many FACTORS that can be taken into account.
I better go help with breakfast nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.
Cheers the noooooooooooooooooooo and GL with bets.
Just after checking some days in MARCH 2009 ( period where I posted RATINGS on here ....but at that time had not twigged how to use em!!!! I knew they were ap to reasonable standard though .....but for most looking at them it would be "hard" to see that!)......and the check on FAVOURITES on races rated was as follows -
03.03.09 -0.226 0.66 1.46 3.138257576
3.3 14 BACK
3.2 5 LAY
4.5 6 BACK
5.2 9 LAY
2.1 9 BACK
3.4 7 NS
4.1 13 NS
4.4 9 LAYABOVELINE
5.1 13 BACK
04.03.09 -1.48 2.55 2.39 2.812721396
4.2 12 LAYABOVELINE
5.2 13 BACK
3 9 NS
4 7 LAYABOVELINE
5 13 LAY
2.1 11 BACK
3.1 8 NS
4.1 9 LAY
4.4 5 BACK
5.1 6 NS
7.2 10 NS
8.2 11 LAY
8.5 12 LAY
9.2 7 BACK
05.03.09 3.5505 -1.26 -1.17 -2.06122449
3.15 4 NSODSONWIN
3.45 9 NS
4.2 12 BACK
4.5 12 BACK
3.25 8 LAYABOVELINE
3.55 8 BACK
4.3 8 NS
5.3 12 LAYABOVELINE
3 5 LAYABOVELINE
3.35 7 LAY
4.05 3 NS
7.2 3 NSODDSONWIN
8.5 8 LAY
06.03.09 17.444 -2.99 -0.13 -1.559080095
4.05 4 BACK
5.15 6 BACK
3.05 12 BACK
4.15 8 LAY
4.5 11 LAYABOVELINE
2.45 7 BACK
3.2 8 NS
3.55 11 BACK
2.35 6 BACK
4.2 9 BACK
4.55 5 BACK
5.3 15 LAY
6.5 12 LAY
7.5 11 LAY
8.2 8 LAY
9.2 9 BACK
======================================================================
Thoses were the only races I tackled those days........so plenty bets just with FAVS.
The time of race...the number of runners are shown.....and total PROFIT or LOSS is shown for each day.
The TOTALS for each of 4 STRATEGIES are shown below for the 4 days above
19.2885 -1.04 2.55 2.330674387
So over 20 points from 4 days with FAVS SO FAR in MARCH 2009.
Generally the system ratings are up to good standard ....IMO......so no signs YET that the STRATEGIES won't "work".
No idea how PREMIUM CHARGE will effect me.........Will be a while before I would be dragged into it I suspect.....Will deal with that IF it happens ....which it may well do.....
RACING is definitely becoming harder to rate IMO........mainly due to overseas trainers participating in BRITISH races...especially IRISH trainers. AW ...TURF and NH taken on by them. So "odd" results wil occur frequently ...but hopefully the system will still be operating to good standard due to many FACTORS that can be taken into account.
I better go help with breakfast nowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.
Cheers the noooooooooooooooooooo and GL with bets.
Completed the check on the 4 days above re 2ND FAVOURITES AND 3RD FAVOURITES ......and results are below...
2ND FAVOURITES
03.03.09 3.46 2.85 2.85 3.557978774
3.3 14 LAY
3.2 5 BACK
4.5 6 BACK
5.2 9 LAYABOVELINE
2.1 9 LAY
3.4 7 BACK
4.1 13 BACK
4.4 9 NSAND WON
5.1 13 NSANDWON
04.03.09 1.9775 1.9 1.9 2.504251701
4.2 12 NS
5.2 13 BACK
3 9 NSANDWON
4 7 BACK
5 13 LAY
2.1 11 LAY
3.1 8 BACK
4.1 9 NS
4.4 5 BACK
5.1 6 BACK
7.2 10 BACK
8.2 11 BACK
8.5 12 BACK
9.2 7 BACK
05.03.09 -0.5015 -4.5 0.03 -0.43452381
3.15 4 NS
3.45 9 NS
4.2 12 NS
4.5 12 LAY
3.25 8 BACK
3.55 8 BACK
4.3 8 LAY
5.3 12 BACK
3 5 BACK
3.35 7 NS
4.05 3 LAY
7.2 3 NS
8.5 8 NS
06.03.09 -5.77 -3.88 0.11 -0.086538462
4.05 4 NS
5.15 6 BACK
3.05 12 LAY
4.15 8 BACK
4.5 11 BACK
2.45 7 BACK
3.2 8 BACK
3.55 11 BACK
2.35 6 BACK
4.2 9 BACK
4.55 5 NS
5.3 15 BACK
6.5 12 BACK
7.5 11 NS
8.2 8 NS
9.2 9 LAY
TOTALS FOR -0.834 -3.63 4.89 5.541168204
4 STRATEGIES
BACK LAY LAY PLACE LAY PLACE
TO GAIN 1 AT FIXED LIABILITY
POINT OF 1 POINT
=========================================================================================
3RD FAVS
03.03.09 -5 2.85 0.26 2.096813725
3.3 14 BACK
3.2 5 BACK
4.5 6 BACK
5.2 9 LAYABOVELINE
2.1 9 LAY
3.4 7 BACK
4.1 13 BACK
4.4 9 NS
5.1 13 LAY
04.03.09 11.9315 1.9 1.9 1.387301587
4.2 12 BACK
5.2 13 LAY
3 9 BACK
4 7 NS
5 13 NS
2.1 11 BACK
3.1 8 NS
4.1 9 BACK
4.4 5 NS
5.1 6 BACK
7.2 10 LAY
8.2 11 BACK
8.5 12 BACK
9.2 7 NS
05.03.09 -5 2.85 2.85 3.188968538
3.15 4 NS
3.45 9 BACK
4.2 12 NS
4.5 12 BACK
3.25 8 LAY
3.55 8 LAY
4.3 8 BACK
5.3 12 BACK
3 5 NS
3.35 7 BACK
4.05 3 NS
7.2 3 NS
8.5 8 LAY
06.03.09 -3.5065 2.85 2.85 2.871697268
4.05 4 BACK
5.15 6 BACK
3.05 12 BACK
4.15 8 NS
4.5 11 BACK
2.45 7 BACK
3.2 8 LAY
3.55 11 LAY
2.35 6 BACK
4.2 9 NS
4.55 5 BACK
5.3 15 LAY
6.5 12 NS
7.5 11 NS
8.2 8 BACK
9.2 9 BACK
TOTALS -1.575 10.45 7.86 9.544781119
=====================================================================================================
So roughly 38 points , after commission, over the above 4 days could have been achieved by BACKING and LAYING FAVS in WIN market.
Field sizes were fairly low in the 4 days .....so the potential profit average dropped a bit on this check.....but still pretty "good" results SO FAR ....on checks carried out.
Enough checking for day!
Gl with bets.
and LAYING in PLACE market to fixed liability.
2ND FAVOURITES
03.03.09 3.46 2.85 2.85 3.557978774
3.3 14 LAY
3.2 5 BACK
4.5 6 BACK
5.2 9 LAYABOVELINE
2.1 9 LAY
3.4 7 BACK
4.1 13 BACK
4.4 9 NSAND WON
5.1 13 NSANDWON
04.03.09 1.9775 1.9 1.9 2.504251701
4.2 12 NS
5.2 13 BACK
3 9 NSANDWON
4 7 BACK
5 13 LAY
2.1 11 LAY
3.1 8 BACK
4.1 9 NS
4.4 5 BACK
5.1 6 BACK
7.2 10 BACK
8.2 11 BACK
8.5 12 BACK
9.2 7 BACK
05.03.09 -0.5015 -4.5 0.03 -0.43452381
3.15 4 NS
3.45 9 NS
4.2 12 NS
4.5 12 LAY
3.25 8 BACK
3.55 8 BACK
4.3 8 LAY
5.3 12 BACK
3 5 BACK
3.35 7 NS
4.05 3 LAY
7.2 3 NS
8.5 8 NS
06.03.09 -5.77 -3.88 0.11 -0.086538462
4.05 4 NS
5.15 6 BACK
3.05 12 LAY
4.15 8 BACK
4.5 11 BACK
2.45 7 BACK
3.2 8 BACK
3.55 11 BACK
2.35 6 BACK
4.2 9 BACK
4.55 5 NS
5.3 15 BACK
6.5 12 BACK
7.5 11 NS
8.2 8 NS
9.2 9 LAY
TOTALS FOR -0.834 -3.63 4.89 5.541168204
4 STRATEGIES
BACK LAY LAY PLACE LAY PLACE
TO GAIN 1 AT FIXED LIABILITY
POINT OF 1 POINT
=========================================================================================
3RD FAVS
03.03.09 -5 2.85 0.26 2.096813725
3.3 14 BACK
3.2 5 BACK
4.5 6 BACK
5.2 9 LAYABOVELINE
2.1 9 LAY
3.4 7 BACK
4.1 13 BACK
4.4 9 NS
5.1 13 LAY
04.03.09 11.9315 1.9 1.9 1.387301587
4.2 12 BACK
5.2 13 LAY
3 9 BACK
4 7 NS
5 13 NS
2.1 11 BACK
3.1 8 NS
4.1 9 BACK
4.4 5 NS
5.1 6 BACK
7.2 10 LAY
8.2 11 BACK
8.5 12 BACK
9.2 7 NS
05.03.09 -5 2.85 2.85 3.188968538
3.15 4 NS
3.45 9 BACK
4.2 12 NS
4.5 12 BACK
3.25 8 LAY
3.55 8 LAY
4.3 8 BACK
5.3 12 BACK
3 5 NS
3.35 7 BACK
4.05 3 NS
7.2 3 NS
8.5 8 LAY
06.03.09 -3.5065 2.85 2.85 2.871697268
4.05 4 BACK
5.15 6 BACK
3.05 12 BACK
4.15 8 NS
4.5 11 BACK
2.45 7 BACK
3.2 8 LAY
3.55 11 LAY
2.35 6 BACK
4.2 9 NS
4.55 5 BACK
5.3 15 LAY
6.5 12 NS
7.5 11 NS
8.2 8 BACK
9.2 9 BACK
TOTALS -1.575 10.45 7.86 9.544781119
=====================================================================================================
So roughly 38 points , after commission, over the above 4 days could have been achieved by BACKING and LAYING FAVS in WIN market.
Field sizes were fairly low in the 4 days .....so the potential profit average dropped a bit on this check.....but still pretty "good" results SO FAR ....on checks carried out.
Enough checking for day!
Gl with bets.
and LAYING in PLACE market to fixed liability.
FFS .......some of typed words are not shown ......
Should be 38 points from the 4 STRATEGIES ...including PLACE LAYING to a fixed liability!
Should be 38 points from the 4 STRATEGIES ...including PLACE LAYING to a fixed liability!
Okay, I'm convinced this is a "pretty good" system. How do I join?
Sorry M.........entrance strictly verboten !!!!
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Checked another 5 days in MARCH 2009 on rated races re above 4 STRATEGIES and cumulatively 59 points approximately over the 9 days checked in MARCH 2009 SO FAR!
In that period though I did not rate every race in BRITAIN.........so there were far fewer selections than other racing days when I rated races.......Therefore the average PROFIT per day being reduced over the 9 days in MARCH 2009 is no real surprise....... System still seems to be consistent re enabling "VALUE" selections to be made.
As I had a "stalker" in MARCH 2009 on the thread where I was posting ratings, then the results of checks on STRATEGIES in that period at the low odds end of market should justify my statement that I believed the ratings were up to a "good" standard in that period...........though I recognise it would be "difficult" for many to see. ( I know that at the higher odds end of market the system also did well in that period.......but it is good to see that the short odds ratings were also doing well too.....)
See no point in continuing the analysis work on previously rated races......re the STRATEGIES for FAVS/2ND FAVS/ 3RD FAVS...................as results are so consistent in 7 months of year where races were rated........and cannot see why the system ratings should not continue to be up to a "good" standard generally for future races! So STOPPING checking NOW!
Friend has at last surfaced ( he tends to hibernate a bit in winter!!!)........so hopefully when he visits on THURSDAY he will have "solved" a repair problem needing fixed! Between now and end of year I have got to attend to a number of matters that need to be dealt with......so still unlikely I will be in a position to fully concentrate on using system again until NEW YEAR!
Hope thread gives some "hope" for those striving to get a system for horse racing.
Gl with bets.
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Checked another 5 days in MARCH 2009 on rated races re above 4 STRATEGIES and cumulatively 59 points approximately over the 9 days checked in MARCH 2009 SO FAR!
In that period though I did not rate every race in BRITAIN.........so there were far fewer selections than other racing days when I rated races.......Therefore the average PROFIT per day being reduced over the 9 days in MARCH 2009 is no real surprise....... System still seems to be consistent re enabling "VALUE" selections to be made.
As I had a "stalker" in MARCH 2009 on the thread where I was posting ratings, then the results of checks on STRATEGIES in that period at the low odds end of market should justify my statement that I believed the ratings were up to a "good" standard in that period...........though I recognise it would be "difficult" for many to see. ( I know that at the higher odds end of market the system also did well in that period.......but it is good to see that the short odds ratings were also doing well too.....)
See no point in continuing the analysis work on previously rated races......re the STRATEGIES for FAVS/2ND FAVS/ 3RD FAVS...................as results are so consistent in 7 months of year where races were rated........and cannot see why the system ratings should not continue to be up to a "good" standard generally for future races! So STOPPING checking NOW!
Friend has at last surfaced ( he tends to hibernate a bit in winter!!!)........so hopefully when he visits on THURSDAY he will have "solved" a repair problem needing fixed! Between now and end of year I have got to attend to a number of matters that need to be dealt with......so still unlikely I will be in a position to fully concentrate on using system again until NEW YEAR!
Hope thread gives some "hope" for those striving to get a system for horse racing.
Gl with bets.
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