General Betting
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
... into successful trading on betfair.
Trading & betting are 2 completely different things and alot of people make the mistake of thinking they are both the same.
They are not the same!
Trading is all about predicting price movements in markets. Whether that is prices drifting or shortening it does not matter. Trading is all about backing high and then laying low or laying low then backing high.
To be a successful trader on betfair you also have to minimise losses and you have to be able to admit that you were wrong or that things are not going to go as you predicted and get out and save some of your losses.
Cutting a £100 loss into a £50 loss is just as good as having a £50 winning trade. Alot of people make the mistake of leaving themselves open "in the hope" things will turn and go in their favour.
To be succesful you also have to maximise profits and one of the biggest mistakes alot of people make is "greening up" as soon as something goes in their favour.
There is times it makes sense to trade out and and clear yourself of any loss (effectivly giving yourself a free bet) but alot of the time you are only harming your profits.
DONT BE TOO SCARED TO STAY IN A MARKET EVEN AFTER AN EVENT HAS WENT IN YOUR FAVOUR
An example of this is the Over/Under 2.5 goals market.
Way to many people trade out the second a goal is scored. Lets just say you back overs @ 2.00. A goal is scored after 10 mins.
Over 2.5 goals will now trade around 1.35-1.40ish (depending on the teams). Now you entered a market at evens and you have the option of getting out @ around 1.35ish, but you need to know at what point in the match will the over 2.5 goals market again be trading at evens.
In the majority of cases if there is 1 goal in the first half then overs is pretty much around the same pre KO price. (not far away) if overs was 2.00 pre KO then at halftime with 1 goal in the match it will be between 1.95-2.10
If a goal is scored after 10 mins and drops to around 1.35 then the overs market wont reach 2.00 again until around the 40th-45th minute.
So here you need to weight up the possibilities of another goal before the 40th minute. If there is another goal before the 40th then trading out @ 1.35 at 1-0 is amassive mistake as another goal before the 40th minute will see that price crash to 1.10-1.20 (depending on time of goal and teams playing)
You also need to know at what point in the match will overs trade at evens after the 2nd goal and the answer to that is roughly around the 75th minute.. it can be closer to the 80th minute depending on teams playing but roughly around 75 mins
So you now know that after 10 mins it is 1-0, you now have the question.. trade out or not?
I would say NOT because you know that a goal anytime before the 75th minute will see over 2.5 goals trade below 2.00 so you can weight up then. It may come around 65-70 min andovers is only 1.80-1.85 and you are now trading out at a higher price then what you could of after 10 mins at 1-0, but thats the chance you take
you backed overs pre KO so you obviously think there will be goals so why trade out after 10 mins?? another goal before HT will see that price tumble to anything below 1.20
My advice would be to let it ride. Like I said another goal before the 75th min will see the price below what you entered at so you can re-evaluate then. You're bet could be won by the 75th minute.
When you enter a market you need to know in advance what the prices will be should a certain thing happen.
Trading & betting are 2 completely different things and alot of people make the mistake of thinking they are both the same.
They are not the same!
Trading is all about predicting price movements in markets. Whether that is prices drifting or shortening it does not matter. Trading is all about backing high and then laying low or laying low then backing high.
To be a successful trader on betfair you also have to minimise losses and you have to be able to admit that you were wrong or that things are not going to go as you predicted and get out and save some of your losses.
Cutting a £100 loss into a £50 loss is just as good as having a £50 winning trade. Alot of people make the mistake of leaving themselves open "in the hope" things will turn and go in their favour.
To be succesful you also have to maximise profits and one of the biggest mistakes alot of people make is "greening up" as soon as something goes in their favour.
There is times it makes sense to trade out and and clear yourself of any loss (effectivly giving yourself a free bet) but alot of the time you are only harming your profits.
DONT BE TOO SCARED TO STAY IN A MARKET EVEN AFTER AN EVENT HAS WENT IN YOUR FAVOUR
An example of this is the Over/Under 2.5 goals market.
Way to many people trade out the second a goal is scored. Lets just say you back overs @ 2.00. A goal is scored after 10 mins.
Over 2.5 goals will now trade around 1.35-1.40ish (depending on the teams). Now you entered a market at evens and you have the option of getting out @ around 1.35ish, but you need to know at what point in the match will the over 2.5 goals market again be trading at evens.
In the majority of cases if there is 1 goal in the first half then overs is pretty much around the same pre KO price. (not far away) if overs was 2.00 pre KO then at halftime with 1 goal in the match it will be between 1.95-2.10
If a goal is scored after 10 mins and drops to around 1.35 then the overs market wont reach 2.00 again until around the 40th-45th minute.
So here you need to weight up the possibilities of another goal before the 40th minute. If there is another goal before the 40th then trading out @ 1.35 at 1-0 is amassive mistake as another goal before the 40th minute will see that price crash to 1.10-1.20 (depending on time of goal and teams playing)
You also need to know at what point in the match will overs trade at evens after the 2nd goal and the answer to that is roughly around the 75th minute.. it can be closer to the 80th minute depending on teams playing but roughly around 75 mins
So you now know that after 10 mins it is 1-0, you now have the question.. trade out or not?
I would say NOT because you know that a goal anytime before the 75th minute will see over 2.5 goals trade below 2.00 so you can weight up then. It may come around 65-70 min andovers is only 1.80-1.85 and you are now trading out at a higher price then what you could of after 10 mins at 1-0, but thats the chance you take
you backed overs pre KO so you obviously think there will be goals so why trade out after 10 mins?? another goal before HT will see that price tumble to anything below 1.20
My advice would be to let it ride. Like I said another goal before the 75th min will see the price below what you entered at so you can re-evaluate then. You're bet could be won by the 75th minute.
When you enter a market you need to know in advance what the prices will be should a certain thing happen.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 42
|
By:
There is not really any football today that I would be looking to get involved in with any serious stakes.
The majority of the football I trade in is english leagues, la liga and serie A. Where liquidity is high and stakes are not a problem. Lower leagues and the obscure leagues it can be tough to get the liquidity. Theres times you can get on pre KO but in-play can be a nightmare to trade out of so I stay away mostly or use small stakes. I would like to give you a few examples of trading markets but there is onoly a few football matches today and the best ones seem to be in the finnish league. Couple of games of interest are MyPa vs Mariehamn, RoPs vs Jaro & TPS vs Helsinki I have a few ideas in mind and if any possibilities arise I will post them here. I will watch them in-play and see if anything can be done. |
|
By:
The example you gave about the goals market could be hugely simplified.
If 2 is a value back (too high) pre-match, take it. If the price after first goal goes in is an over-reaction (too low), then get out. You have now completed 2 value trades. If the price is correct or poor value to get out, let it ride. Forget about what the hunch was pre-match, if the price doesnt line up to the hunch, its not a selection anyway. I am all for following intuition but it has to be in-keeping with a value price to create any form of edge. |
|
By:
I could'nt agree more FM. It is rare though that the market over reacts to a goal.
Once a goal has been scored it will only trade a few ticks higher than what the lower goal market was. for example if after 10 mins over 1.5 goals has went to 1.40, a goal is scored, the market is suspended over 2.5 will now trade a couple of ticks higher than what 1.5 goals market was before the suspend of course if you can lay lower than what the 1.5 goals marklet was beofre the suspend then go for it but it is rare that will happen. Forgot to mention that it depends on whether I am backing overs or unders whether i get involved pre KO or not. If I am looking to back the overs markets then I very rarely (if ever) get involved pre KO. I wait in play and get on at a higher price Over 70% of games that end over 2.5 goals DONT have a goal in the opening 15 so it m akes sense to wait that 15-20 mins before entering the market Unders bets I always get on pre KO looking for the game to be goalless as long as possible. People always think that backing unders pre KO to trade at 0-0 is flawed because an early goal runis your chances of a sucessful trade this of course is complete nonsense. An early goal does not ruin your chances of a sucessful trade. There needs to be 2 first half goals to really ruin your chances and then you have to look at taking a loss. Like I stated earlier it takes until around 40-45th min for the market to get to the pre KO odds if 1 goal is scored. so if I back unders and a goal is scored before I trade out I know I can sucessfully trade out of the market for no loss if still 1-0/0-1 after 40 or so minutes 2 1st half goals is rare hence why odds are 2.50-3.25 generally and also I would'nt back unders in a game that had a good chance of having 2 first half goals.. obviously you are never 100% sure of what is going to happen, You can back unders at it be 1-1 after 10 mins and you are looking at a loss but if you do your research and know your stuff then you can give yourself an edge and take alot of the gamble out of things. |
|
By:
RoPS vs Jaro
Currently 0-0 in play after 61 mins. Strongly expect a goal to be scored here so I have layed under 1.5 goals @ 1.45 |
|
By:
A goal before the 85th minute will see a sucessful trade.
|
|
By:
There we go didnt have to wait long GOAL 68th minute.
Layed under 1.5 goals @ 1.45 and backed back @ 2.24 |
|
By:
I have missed my opportunity in the Mypa/Mariehamn game.
I strongly expected a goal to be scored and I was going to lay the draw knowing a goal scored would see the draw price shoot right out. Draw was 1.90 to lay but I was waiting until it dropped to around 1.76-1.80 Mariehamn scored a penalty which put the draw out to 3.70 so I could of had another succesful trade but missed out by a few minutes waiting for the draw price to drop. |
|
By:
Just to give you a little insight into my thoughts regarding the lay of under 1.5 goals in the RoPS game
I was fully aware that between RoPS games and Jaros games there had been 74 goals in the opening 60 mins but there had been 68 in the remaining 30 minutes so there had been nearly just as many goals in the remaining 30 mins than there had been in the opening 60 mins (only half the time frame and just 6 goals a diffrence) There was a high chance of this game having at least 1 goal in the final 30 mins and a good chance of at least 2. I knew that by laying under 1.5 goals @ 1.45 I would need a goal anytime before the 85th minute to make a sucessful trade as i type it is the 86th min and it is available to lay @ 1.54 so it is actually going to be around the 88th minute before this gets back to the 1.45 I layed originally so a goal anytime before the 88th minute was always going to be a sucessful trade. |
|
By:
Good stuff. May I ask what website you obtain your stats from. Cheers.
|
|
By:
excellent. 0-2 in the jaro game giving me a higher profit.
jaro had conceded 18 goals in the remianing 30 mins and 9 in the final 15 mins RoPS had conceded 24 goals in the remianing 30 mins and 11 in the final 15 so I was always highly confident there would be 2 goals. I had 75% of the profit on over 1.5 goals and left 25% on unders just incase it remained 0-1 |
|
By:
check your inbox irish stew
|
|
By:
OK Guys that is me for now. There was'nt really any football to get involved with today but managed to find a game to highlight and make some cash.
Wont be around tomorrow but I will be back for the weekend and hopefully get on alot more markets and alot more matches and go into greater detail on how to sucessfully trade markets take it easy |
|
By:
|Really interesting BF, I'd also love to know where you get all the stats. Mite have a go at the overs market to.
|
|
By:
Another thought,when backing overs it's best to wait 15 mins as the average first goal in all games is around the 20 min mark which should give you a higher,more tradeable price.
Should a game have a very early goal then ignore and move to next match. |
|
By:
^^^ Already pointed that out above mate. I never back overs pre KO as the price is nowhere near good enough.
|
|
By:
Do you major on one particular"over" 1.5 or 2.5 etc..?
For me it's 1.5 but have been guilty of greening up far too early so your comments above will certainly aid my margins....thanks. |
|
By:
What would be a useful stat would be...What % of games end with more than one goal whilst scoreless at 20 mins" ??
The EPL/German/La Liga and Swiss prem all have around a 73% plus overs 1.5 rate but this stat covers all goal times hence the piss poor pre kick off prices. |
|
By:
BF-Trader
A friend of mine want to know whether you are known elsewhere as "the teapot" |
|
By:
Good thread this. Will follow with interest.
 |
|
By:
Why do i spout alot ?
|
|
By:
BFF,
When backing overs do you take 0.0 insurance out? |
|
By:
No not you Mr Jangles I was asking BF-Trader.
My "friend" would ask but he has been sent to the big virtual world in the sky by the betfair moderators, so I am just asking for him. |
|
By:
@ alex the old codger
No idea what you are getting at  @ mrbojangles i use all the overs markets, generally 1.5, 2.5 & 3.5 There is times I back 0-0 as insurance but alot depends on the situation and what my plans are for the upcoming match. I know before a match even kicks off what my plans are I know when I want to enter, when i want to exit a market. what to do if x happens and what to do if y happens alot of people just enter a market without actually thinking through all the possible things that could go for them or against them |
|
By:
Sorry to be cynical (again) but I would bet that identifying and backing value in football markets shows greater returns than trading on unknown chances like this, for less overall work.
BF-Trader, if it's not too cheeky can I ask what sort of returns you make from these trades monthly, in terms of points/units/stakes won? Mrbojangles : What would be a useful stat would be...What % of games end with more than one goal whilst scoreless at 20 mins" ?? That's an easy stat to work out Mrbo. |
|
By:
Trev,
Without trawling through thousands of scorelines??? |
|
By:
Lol, no, with trawling through thousands of score lines! That's what discovers edges - hard work.
|
|
By:
i get involved in these markets but usually to gamble. Very interested in getting the stats website as I havent gotten anything with this information in terms of times of goals scored.
Great thread and good insight on trading. |
|
By:
Trevh
08 Sep 11 21:33 Joined: 21 Jul 06 work. BF-Trader, if it's not too cheeky can I ask what sort of returns you make from these trades monthly, in terms of points/units/stakes won? Perhaps you ought to ask over what period too, given that BF-Trader first posted only yesterday. |
|
By:
Hey up there BF-Trader.
Unfortunately what you are doing is betting and not trading. If trading is all about predicting prices movements in a market, betting is all about predicting what is going to happen in a game. To me it appears that your style is betting. No problem with what you are doing but it is betting not trading. Good luck. |
|
By:
What's unfortunate about it?
|
|
By:
I cannot see a distinction between betting and trading.
The traders at Goldman Sachs carry out both functions all day every day. "We think Nissan motor corporations stock will rise due to Toyota's safety issues so let's buy 100,000 @ $30.00 a pop." Scenario A = Nissan stock nudges forward to $30.75...sell and bank a $75k profit. Scenario B = Toyota announce they have devised a widget to help stop their cars sooner and their stock rises but Nissan's drop to $29.25 ..."oops we just lost $75k". Which scenario is trading/betting? |
|
By:
OP seems to know what he is doing but I do not agree with his concepts on there being a difference between trading and betting
IMHO you CANNOT trade without betting. You have to place a bet in order to trade. when he layed under 1.5 goals @ 1.45 this isnt trading at all. This IS betting. The trading part only comes if you close out of that bet (like he did backing back at 2.24) I agree with U.A that what BF-Trader is doing is betting and then just trading out when things go as he expected. I suppose what he says about trading is being able predict price movements but again you have to place a BET in order to be able to trade |
|
By:
trading or betting is U.A.'s favourite subject. What does it matter?
|
|
By:
What extraordinary insight into the over/under markets!
How long before we get an invitation to subscribe to his tipping service? |
|
By:
Wow, somebody has read it! [;)]
|
|
By:
My thoughts exactly,Contrarian.A total guesser with some random stats thrown in to make it look like some kind of 'system'.
|
|
By:
I am sensing abit of scepticism here. I have no hidden agenda at all. I make my living trading markets on betfair and am willing to give some insight into how the small 2% actually make money on here.
Dont have a tipping service and have no idea how to ever start one. I am knowledgable enough to be able to make my own money so dont need further income. I could just as easily not post and help out others who may be interested. Does'nt really make any difference to my life. I will still continue to make money day in day out. by nbdbscms My thoughts exactly,Contrarian.A total guesser with some random stats thrown in to make it look like some kind of 'system'. This has to be one of stupidest comments you can possibly write. For a start they are not "random stats" they are current stats from this seasons finnish league. How can you ever judge a football match without knowing how previous seasons results have gone you say I am just a guesser and if thats you're view then every single person in the world who places a bet is just "guessing" if you back barcelona to win the champs league are you not just guessing? you dont know they will win the champions league you are just "guessing" that they will stats and results are a vital part of predicting the outcomes of football matches. The above stats posted on yesterdays RoPS match highlighted the huge trend for goals in the final 30 mins. This is'nt a guess the records are there to prove it, 74 goals in the opening 60 mins and 68 in the remianing 30 mins. This tells you both sides concede alot of goals late. I layed @ 1.45 (backing @ 3.00) thinking there was a very good chance of 2 goals and almost certainly a chance of 1 goal which means sucessful trade. When I entered the market at the price I did I knew that a goal before the 85th minute would see a sucessful trade THIS IS'NT A GUESS this is a FACT. when you learn to understand and read markets and now what the prices will be all the way through a match it makes it alot easier. Tonight preston play yeovil. Do you know what price the over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals markets will be trading at after 60 mins if there is 0 goals, 1 goal and 2 goals?? BECAUSE I DO 60 mins into the match i know roughly within a few ticks what price over 1.5/2.5 goals markets will be whether theres 0, 1 or 2 goals unless you know this info you wont be a sucessful trader |
|
By:
This job is'nt easy you have to put in the hard work to make it sucessful.
10-14 hrs a day 7 days a week I am looking at results, stats, match reports, team news etc etc 2.18pm and I have already been at my computer 3 hours looking at and reading the web pages of every single english team playing this weekend for team news etc etc Finished with the premiership, championship and league 1 so thats 68 web pages and latest news read just today alone. I still have league 1 and the scottish leagues to go |
|
By:
opened a twitter account yesterday. Never used the site before so still new to it.
I have set it up so I can send twitters through my phone. Alot of the stuff I post will be in-play stuff so any followers will get the alerts to their phone and stops them having to check here on the forum. I will also post my best scottish tip and best english tip every saturday and also my best bet for every sunday.. if you are interested then follow @ www.twitter.com/@betfairtrader21 |