General Betting
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
01 Sep 11
01:12
Joined:
Date Joined:
05 Jun 09
I am currently laying horses in running without seeing the races, I do this in all types of races. I put up a lay of every horse at bookmaker sp and I cancel the lays before halfway. I have had mixed results. Should I avoid chases in case of fallers? Should I avoid 5 and 6 furlong races due to the amount of winners that make all?
Show More
You should try searching for BeatTheOverround's posts on the subject, if he's still a forum user, haven't seen him around for ages though.
Back in 2008 he posted regularly about a method of setting up lays on several runners per race at something like 10% below prices just before the off, and cancelling after either one gets matched or when 1 second per furlong has passed.
Back in 2008 he posted regularly about a method of setting up lays on several runners per race at something like 10% below prices just before the off, and cancelling after either one gets matched or when 1 second per furlong has passed.
As a general principal in running keep bets are a flawed idea. This is because when you offer the bet you don't what you're betting on, by the time the bet gets taken the situation has changed and the basis for your price is no longer applicable - whereas the person who takes it is doing so on the basis of much more recent, more accurate information.
Laying IR is still where the most money gets made, but you need a much more sophisticated approach. The kind of strategy you are employing will likely break even pre-comm (as will any random strategy) and lose money overall at your comm rate.
If you prefer to work this through with a probabilistic methodology think of it like this:
Imagine a race in which 4 horses run all going off at 4, you have put in keep bets on all runners at 2 (the numbers don't matter, these numbers just make the maths simple).
Assuming "true" prices the chances of a horse trading at half it's SP in the run must be 50% (0.5).
If this race is typical of the expected outcomes (the "average" race) then 2 horses will trade at 2, one of which will win, so you'll get 2 lays matched for an overall profit of £0.
Work this through for any numbers you like and you'll see that the outcome is always 0.
Laying IR is still where the most money gets made, but you need a much more sophisticated approach. The kind of strategy you are employing will likely break even pre-comm (as will any random strategy) and lose money overall at your comm rate.
If you prefer to work this through with a probabilistic methodology think of it like this:
Imagine a race in which 4 horses run all going off at 4, you have put in keep bets on all runners at 2 (the numbers don't matter, these numbers just make the maths simple).
Assuming "true" prices the chances of a horse trading at half it's SP in the run must be 50% (0.5).
If this race is typical of the expected outcomes (the "average" race) then 2 horses will trade at 2, one of which will win, so you'll get 2 lays matched for an overall profit of £0.
Work this through for any numbers you like and you'll see that the outcome is always 0.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539