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Surely it doesnt matter whether you trade or simply back or lay, if you devise some kind of strategy and stick to it with shrewd money management this is a massive step in the right direction, yes?
I mean by not deviating from your plan and never chasing?
Just wondered peoples thoughts as most people say you wont get anywhere without trading!
I mean by not deviating from your plan and never chasing?
Just wondered peoples thoughts as most people say you wont get anywhere without trading!
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Say you have a specific strategy for BACKING , before race starts, then LAYING IR at set odds to obtain a FREE BET........then LAYING part of potential profit off at lower odds IR to gain a profit......you are relying on there being sufficient liquidity IR at the low odds for the second LAY to be matched.
On "paper", the above method "works" consistently well enough to give a good profit...............but the "doubt" re there being sufficient liquidity means this strategy may or may not "work".
If you "deviate" and re-think the strategy and find that there is a high strike-rate re winners that produces an even higher profit, then what do you do? No guarantee that in future your selections will win, but at least you do know that if they do there is no need for the liquidity IR !
Both strategies "work" to level stakes........but is level-stakes the "right" way to back em?
Questions....questions....questions!
Probably it is "true" that most people won't get anywhere....even if they do trade!
Basically you won't get anywhere without an "edge".....so find the "edge" first. May take years.......but that is best "strategy".
GL with bets.
On "paper", the above method "works" consistently well enough to give a good profit...............but the "doubt" re there being sufficient liquidity means this strategy may or may not "work".
If you "deviate" and re-think the strategy and find that there is a high strike-rate re winners that produces an even higher profit, then what do you do? No guarantee that in future your selections will win, but at least you do know that if they do there is no need for the liquidity IR !
Both strategies "work" to level stakes........but is level-stakes the "right" way to back em?
Questions....questions....questions!
Probably it is "true" that most people won't get anywhere....even if they do trade!
Basically you won't get anywhere without an "edge".....so find the "edge" first. May take years.......but that is best "strategy".
GL with bets.
Dannymark, with a decent disciplined staking plan, say 1% of the bank, even your granny could make pot luck bets and only lose to commission long term.
Once you've got the staking sorted (easy) you then need to find a way to defeat commission in order to break level.
Once you've got the staking sorted (easy) you then need to find a way to defeat commission in order to break level.
Dannymark, do not worry what people say or don't say about trading. You just need some kind of edge of any description and a staking plan that can ride out a losing run (probably some fraction of the Kelly criterion).
Ideally you shd begin with let's say 6-8 diff. strategies all of which you think will yield a positive return and run all of them. You will refine yr strategies dropping some and adding filters for others as you go on, hopefully increasing yr bank all the while.
Ideally you shd begin with let's say 6-8 diff. strategies all of which you think will yield a positive return and run all of them. You will refine yr strategies dropping some and adding filters for others as you go on, hopefully increasing yr bank all the while.
aeung, good luck, remember, if you end up paying the PC (don't know if you are) then that means you're successful - even if it's a b!tch.
pc i wish. few quid here that is all. im just tipping away with 2 things at the moment but have gotten lazy! cheers man, good luck to you
I would be surprised if there were anything among the posts
on this thread that dannymark didn't already know. ''A good staking plan'' really ?
''some kind of Kelly criterion'' ? Nothing posted so far IMO.
on this thread that dannymark didn't already know. ''A good staking plan'' really ?
''some kind of Kelly criterion'' ? Nothing posted so far IMO.
why should anyone on here give any information at all that could benefit another Betfair user?
Nothing posted so far IMO.
You don't say, remind yourself we're all betting against each other.
You don't say, remind yourself we're all betting against each other.
acquience12, I am fully aware and not sure why you
lifted and posted those words. I was meaning there
has been nothing posted on this thread that we don't
know, just some vague meaningless comments. Not a
criticism, just an observation.
lifted and posted those words. I was meaning there
has been nothing posted on this thread that we don't
know, just some vague meaningless comments. Not a
criticism, just an observation.
acquience12, I am fully aware and not sure why you
lifted and posted those words. I was meaning there
has been nothing posted on this thread that we don't
know, just some vague meaningless comments. Not a
criticism, just an observation.
Are you Supernap - it was Supernap that I replied to, Mr Kenilworth?
lifted and posted those words. I was meaning there
has been nothing posted on this thread that we don't
know, just some vague meaningless comments. Not a
criticism, just an observation.
Are you Supernap - it was Supernap that I replied to, Mr Kenilworth?
why should anyone on here give any information at all that could benefit another Betfair user?
Why not? As long as it doesn't negatively affect what you are doing then why not help someone else out. Beats many of the alternative reasons why people seem to post.
Why not? As long as it doesn't negatively affect what you are doing then why not help someone else out. Beats many of the alternative reasons why people seem to post.
I didn't say whether or not it mattered, it was a question born out of confusion, I replied to one user - and then a completely different username responded as if it was him that I origianlly asked the question too!. It's a natural response on my part to put that question forward.
ok, I understand all that and sorry to cause you confusion.
I have two accounts for betting purposes, etc, etc
I have two accounts for betting purposes, etc, etc
You don't half take some stick on the Football Forum, I sincerely hope you've got a thick skin.
Yes, and I do have a thick skin. for what it's worth
it's mainly one person who is a bit noisy at times
and 3 or 4 thickheads jumped on the wagon. A couple
of years ago we clashed on here over betting methods
and it was a bit vicious on his part. For some reason
he offered to 'kiss and make up' and I was in no mood
for it, so rejected him. His attacks became even more
ferocious but in the main I ignore him. hope that
explains things. GL.
it's mainly one person who is a bit noisy at times
and 3 or 4 thickheads jumped on the wagon. A couple
of years ago we clashed on here over betting methods
and it was a bit vicious on his part. For some reason
he offered to 'kiss and make up' and I was in no mood
for it, so rejected him. His attacks became even more
ferocious but in the main I ignore him. hope that
explains things. GL.
U.A.
I'm sorry for being so cynical
back high, lay low
there, the cat's out of the bag
I'm sorry for being so cynical
back high, lay low
there, the cat's out of the bag
It does explain things, yeah. Can be comical reading at times though - although that's not be condoning what some may perceive to be cyber bullying - I don't actually think that exist - at least it shouldn't as it's just a forum, all those concerned should take things with a pinch of salt. GL anyhow.
The thing is though, people can say whatever they
like about anyone on here, and there is no redress.
If someone says you have tipped 20 consecutive losers
what can do about it ? You can't prove a negative.
like about anyone on here, and there is no redress.
If someone says you have tipped 20 consecutive losers
what can do about it ? You can't prove a negative.
aueng, strategies is just a grand word for you thinking that you have some kind of systematic edge.
A bettor can data-mine to their heart's content and come up w/ things they think will be profitable, but trying it out to rational staking and a small bank is a much better way of understanding how the strategy works and whether it is likely to win over time.
Someone might not have the skills or the available data to check up on a hypothesis, anyway, so their best option is going to be to bet to investigate their hunch.
I don't come from any kind of mathematical background and only really understand statistics in a 'know your enemy' kind-of-way. Sometimes I see something which is plausible on a stats basis but which I think will lose on a psychological basis / understanding of participants' personalities.
An example wd be laying horses that fit fitness criteria (and sometimes class criteria) but which are likely to have other targets.
A bettor can data-mine to their heart's content and come up w/ things they think will be profitable, but trying it out to rational staking and a small bank is a much better way of understanding how the strategy works and whether it is likely to win over time.
Someone might not have the skills or the available data to check up on a hypothesis, anyway, so their best option is going to be to bet to investigate their hunch.
I don't come from any kind of mathematical background and only really understand statistics in a 'know your enemy' kind-of-way. Sometimes I see something which is plausible on a stats basis but which I think will lose on a psychological basis / understanding of participants' personalities.
An example wd be laying horses that fit fitness criteria (and sometimes class criteria) but which are likely to have other targets.
Kenilworth, I took the OP as asking 'do you need to trade to win?'
Maybe he's a novice bettor who's been around people who have said that any winner needs to trade.
Of course it's only one tool in your armoury amongst others, and there may be people who benefit from hearing that.
Maybe he's a novice bettor who's been around people who have said that any winner needs to trade.
Of course it's only one tool in your armoury amongst others, and there may be people who benefit from hearing that.
"I have two accounts for betting purposes, etc, etc"
The etc, etc bit would appear to cover 'posting using both of my usernames on the same thread' purposes as well judging by this example from March this year.
http://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/27238645/honestly...
O, what a tangled web we weave when first we practise to deceive!
The etc, etc bit would appear to cover 'posting using both of my usernames on the same thread' purposes as well judging by this example from March this year.
http://community.betfair.com/football/go/thread/view/94070/27238645/honestly...
O, what a tangled web we weave when first we practise to deceive!
top2rated, a very dramatically presented, but completely
wasted on me. Where is the deceipt you accuse me of ?
I use two accounts, one for football, the other for other
sports. When I opened the second account I needed to enter
a forum name if I wanted to post on the forum and did what
I had to do. What's the problem ? I didn't realise I had
changed account when posting on this thread, and it is the
reason why it happened. What is the problem ? Have I broken
some rules ? What advantage do I gain with my ''deceipt''.
You have a very fertile imagination.
wasted on me. Where is the deceipt you accuse me of ?
I use two accounts, one for football, the other for other
sports. When I opened the second account I needed to enter
a forum name if I wanted to post on the forum and did what
I had to do. What's the problem ? I didn't realise I had
changed account when posting on this thread, and it is the
reason why it happened. What is the problem ? Have I broken
some rules ? What advantage do I gain with my ''deceipt''.
You have a very fertile imagination.
askari, I wasn't able to comment on trading as I don't trade
personally, occasionally 'green up or red up' and that's it.
Generally speaking it is possible to win without trading but
you have to be betting at odds larger than the perceived chance
of your bet being successful. I tend to look for over reactions,
overbet situation etc. Is that the sort of answer I should be
giving ? GL.
personally, occasionally 'green up or red up' and that's it.
Generally speaking it is possible to win without trading but
you have to be betting at odds larger than the perceived chance
of your bet being successful. I tend to look for over reactions,
overbet situation etc. Is that the sort of answer I should be
giving ? GL.
I'll leave my last words on the subject of kenilworth/supernap to Sir Walter Scott......
“A sound head, an honest heart, and a humble spirit are the three best guides through time and to eternity”
“A sound head, an honest heart, and a humble spirit are the three best guides through time and to eternity”
top2rated, you have a very strange imagination, and
I have no idea what are rambling about, and I am sure
no one else does.
I have no idea what are rambling about, and I am sure
no one else does.
He's insinuating the two accounts you have for betting purposes are also/really for backing up your own points in any kind of debate/argument you may have.
“A sound head, an honest heart, and a humble spirit are the three best guides through time and to eternity”
Again, he's alluding to the fact you're not as honest as you appear to portray your self as.
That's what I'm getting from T2R's posts.
IMO
HTH
“A sound head, an honest heart, and a humble spirit are the three best guides through time and to eternity”
Again, he's alluding to the fact you're not as honest as you appear to portray your self as.
That's what I'm getting from T2R's posts.
IMO
HTH
I still believe he harbours a fertile imagination
that anyone would go that far to make an insignificant
point. It is correct that I did post under two forum
names on the same thread, purely an oversight. If he
thinks there was some other reason, then it's not my
problem but his.
that anyone would go that far to make an insignificant
point. It is correct that I did post under two forum
names on the same thread, purely an oversight. If he
thinks there was some other reason, then it's not my
problem but his.
acquiesce12 you can
spot ken/supernap writing
style a mile away
nothing in that thread
thats dodgy imo
spot ken/supernap writing
style a mile away
nothing in that thread
thats dodgy imo
It always amazes
me how some people think just
because they have or insist on
having the last word that they somehow
think that makes their POV the correct one.
There's a well known saying
about arguments on the internet
that is not flattering to the people
who choose to indulge in theme, i won't
repeat it as it's quite crass - but it's relevant here.
My last words too.
me how some people think just
because they have or insist on
having the last word that they somehow
think that makes their POV the correct one.
There's a well known saying
about arguments on the internet
that is not flattering to the people
who choose to indulge in theme, i won't
repeat it as it's quite crass - but it's relevant here.
My last words too.
It's hard to see where you fit in here acquience12 being as
you have only been posting about a month, so that may be why
you chose to finish your valued contributions with a vague
reference to a saying which I am unaware of. I made a school
boy error which seems to be seen as something deliberate, for
which I have apologised for. I hope you continue to enjoy.
you have only been posting about a month, so that may be why
you chose to finish your valued contributions with a vague
reference to a saying which I am unaware of. I made a school
boy error which seems to be seen as something deliberate, for
which I have apologised for. I hope you continue to enjoy.
You
completely
misunderstood
nvm
oh
no
i've gone back on
my last words
completely
misunderstood
nvm
oh
no
i've gone back on
my last words
Please don't bore us with silly posts, I was hoping for better.
kenilworth has been a member here for a long time and has never made a secret of the fact he also posts as supernap. Not sure what your problem is here acquiesce12
kenilworth
Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
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When: 28 Aug 11 10:05
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top2rated, you have a very strange imagination, and
I have no idea what are rambling about, and I am sure
no one else does.
kenilworth
Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
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When: 28 Aug 11 16:22
Please don't bore us with silly posts, I was hoping for better.
It's a bit of a faux pas to keep speaking for the majority when infact you are one person - speaking on behalf on one person - unless of course - one of you other usernames comes out to back you up.
IMO, your leech like posts, clinging on to a tired dialogue is just that - tiresome, boring and IMO - sad
Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
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When: 28 Aug 11 10:05
Joined:
Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
| Topic/replies: 5,758 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
top2rated, you have a very strange imagination, and
I have no idea what are rambling about, and I am sure
no one else does.
kenilworth
Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
Add contact | Send message
When: 28 Aug 11 16:22
Please don't bore us with silly posts, I was hoping for better.
It's a bit of a faux pas to keep speaking for the majority when infact you are one person - speaking on behalf on one person - unless of course - one of you other usernames comes out to back you up.
IMO, your leech like posts, clinging on to a tired dialogue is just that - tiresome, boring and IMO - sad
I find it quite strange that some one can make a comment like that when you are the very person who also said "I have two accounts for betting purposes, etc, etc," very ethical, Kenilworth, not quite sure how your conscious allowed you the strength to climb up onto that high horse of yours. Maybe you don't have one.
Furthermore, reading back on this thread, it's very apparent you're clearly upset with me - no doubt for two reasons, 1) I started a thread on another forum asking if you were Supernap and 2) challenging you on this thread, quite fairly I might add -IMO.
Lastly, your opinion on where I stand in society is wholeheartedly irrelevant - given the fact, we've never met.
HTH
Furthermore, reading back on this thread, it's very apparent you're clearly upset with me - no doubt for two reasons, 1) I started a thread on another forum asking if you were Supernap and 2) challenging you on this thread, quite fairly I might add -IMO.
Lastly, your opinion on where I stand in society is wholeheartedly irrelevant - given the fact, we've never met.
HTH
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