Anyone else tried that system of TrevH

link to original thread? didnt it start ay 17 and reach 8.5 before the goal?

It started at 17 and I backed at 8 after 31 minutes.

so isnt that a winner?

Paulme

Laying at 17 and backing at 8 for twice the original stake is not a winner. I must try and find the original thread but cant remember where it was or when.

It takes about 30 minutes in-play for the odds to half on 0-0. Why don't you look up all the results of the day/week/season/league etc and apply the same strategy (see where there is/isn't a goal in the first 30 minutes) and see where you end up?

I don't think you're doing anything wrong, just have a little patience.

Not saying it works, i don't really know if it does, but 7 losers surely can't be that uncommon.

Better backing small stakes and laying off at just under 30 mins - you risk less and will make profits more often.

your effectictly backin evs money a goalin first 25 to35 mins of game.

uCAN GET THIS BET WITH ANY BOOKIE COMMISSION FREE, or u can do same bet in the first goal odd market.

Bix, you're not doing anything wrong, but it can be a soul destroying method to implement when you hit a run of losers. I've had 16 losers in a row before, that's when you feel like the world is against you, when you're on your knees it will kick you in the face some more. If you can keep your head using this method then IMO you've got what it takes to succeed at gambling.

Imagine backing heads over and over again on the flip of a coin at 10% value - 2.2 - you are guaranteed to win long term, but you are also guaranteed to have losing runs of between 10 to 20 in a row several times a year.

The key is to keep doing the same thing and forget about the sequence of results, because you will also get winning runs of even greater length.

The reason this method shows a small long term profit after commission is that 0-0 layers hold the price up for too long after kick off. For example, did you look at the price most bookies were offering for a goal in the Man.U match before 25/26/27 minutes? I bet you couldn't have got 30 minutes for evens with any of them, more likely 26 minutes for 5/6, hence the edge becomes obvious. It doesn't matter that the edge is then known, most will fail because it's such a difficult method to implement.

Eat_your_greens, yes that's sensible to do. I've checked past seasons results i.e. premiership 09/10 laying all 0-0's for 30 minutes shows a 29 points profit, which doesn't sound like much but there are 20 fold more matches than that available every week.

Interestingly, if you lay the current score immediately after the initial goal and subsequent goals using the same strategy of redding-up for an even money bet on each new lay, the profits for that premiership season rise to 56.5 points. You will get less than 30 minutes exposure for each goal after the first though, and the key is getting a good price as the odds reform after the goal. :)

TrevH

Thanks for the in depth reply. I have a method which makes small gains on the horses but football betting is new to me and I was using your "system" to get a feel of how the markets work. I have no problem with the disciplin side of gambling but I was wondering if I'd missed something when the first 7 times all went down the pan.
Football betting seems to me to be totally different to the horses as before the game starts no-one knows the result or what will happen.
I don't expect anyone to divulge their edge but advice on where to start would be appreciated.

When you say ''half the odds'', do you mean for example, with a lay of 12.0, you would
close at 6.0 or 6.50 ?

To make it an evens bet, it is necessary to close the bet at
half the exchange price (lay at 12, back at 6) which is laying
at 11/1 and backing back at 5/1, and that price takes a little
bit longer to reach (more chance of a goal). Simpler to work.

A system like that will never ever work!

I hope this clarifies the matter.

same as your holy grail then Slice... probably

Believe what you wish!

Anyone who understands time value on options will know why the system cannot produce prophets in the long term.

I hope this clarifies the matter.

Slicer is always correct.... sometimes.

Thank you for your support rb, I will always wear it!

be careful of using other peoples systems as I told trev I followed this one and might jump of a cliff
if it keeps losing so he sent me a parachute with an anvil in it.

Super patience needed for this and perhaps a few huge slices of luck.

New to this thread but surely the old adage is: Back HIGH - Lay LOW. Not the other way around.

lay 0-0 but back it back when odds have halved

u mean other way round?

or u mean if there is goal, you win instantly else you stake more at half odds to win... why not green out when the price halves again?

no it's meant that way round.

so its back high, lay low?

Sorry there ocean0201 I replied to your 18.52 post i hadn't seen your 18.54 post at the time i sent my message. Trevh basically said that you lay the 0-0 at the start of the game and then hope that there is a goal and you win. If there isn't a goal by the time the price has halved then trade out for a loss. Over time your wins should outweigh your losses. The 0-0 should reach half price after 30 mins.

If you look at the EPL for 2010-2011 there were only 168 games out of 380 that were still 0-0 at 30 mins so this strategy would have been successful. Likewise for 2009-2010 there were 174 games out of 380 that were still 0-0 at 30 mins so again this strategy would have been a winner. If you look at the 2008-2009 season however there were 200 games out of 380 that were 0-0 at 30 mins so this would have been a loser.

If you just look at 1 league and do this theory for a whole season it could still end up a losing strategy. I have no idea about what happens if you do it for all the European top leagues for a season.

Hope this helps.

Sorry there ocean0201 I replied to your 18.52 post i hadn't seen your 18.54 post at the time i sent my message. Trevh basically said that you lay the 0-0 at the start of the game and then hope that there is a goal and you win. If there isn't a goal by the time the price has halved then trade out for a loss. Over time your wins should outweigh your losses. The 0-0 should reach half price after 30 mins.

If you look at the EPL for 2010-2011 there were only 168 games out of 380 that were still 0-0 at 30 mins so this strategy would have been successful. Likewise for 2009-2010 there were 174 games out of 380 that were still 0-0 at 30 mins so again this strategy would have been a winner. If you look at the 2008-2009 season however there were 200 games out of 380 that were 0-0 at 30 mins so this would have been a loser.

If you just look at 1 league and do this theory for a whole season it could still end up a losing strategy. I have no idea about what happens if you do it for all the European top leagues for a season.

Hope this helps.

stupid computer...

Bix : ...but I was wondering if I'd missed something when the first 7 times all went down the pan.

There's nothing remotely unusual about losing 7 even money bets in a row Bix, so no you haven't missed something.

But as you can see from some of the replies, a basic grasp of value is indeed a rare thing.

U.A., 30 minutes isn't set in stone so it's not entirely accurate to calculate historical profits or losses that way. In some matches if there's been an early sending off you may have to red up after say 22 minutes, in other matches you may get 35 minutes for your money, and if you can get a good lay price straight after kick off even better.

The point of the method is that overall you will get more time exposed to the win at greater odds than you would get by backing a goal in the first 26 minutes at 5/6 for the same bet.

trevh see my thread i have posted 0-0 stats for all leagues..

Kenilworth : To make it an evens bet, it is necessary to close the bet at
half the exchange price (lay at 12, back at 6) which is laying
at 11/1 and backing back at 5/1, and that price takes a little
bit longer to reach (more chance of a goal). Simpler to work.

Haven't seen you around for a while Kenilworth, nice holiday?

But yes halved to decimal odds not fractional. As an example if I had laid at 12.0 I would be looking to back at the price that gave me the same amount of loss as I would have won after commission. So for say a £100 lay my profit would be £96.50 if the goal came, or if not I would red up just before 6.0 for a loss close to £96.50, not £100.

It's not a question of how long the game stays at 0-0 but how long the suitable odds are available.

So is the value in laying the 0-0 or backing it? And whichever it is, why bother with the other?

I agree with the previous poster, in which case
IMO the second bet would seem to be the value at
first glance. Unfortunately the price to close is
fixed (half the back price) and there is no way of
knowing how many minutes will have passed before
the desired price is reached. IMO it could occur
between the 22nd and 30th minute.

Trev, in the Udinese/Arsenal match on Wednesday night
0-0 was 12.0/12.5 prekickoff and 33 mins passed before
the price touch half (6.0/6.2), 33 mins being about 5
mins above average IMO.

In that game, the 0-0 seconds before kick-off was 10.5/11.

Trevh - I'm certainly not trying to critise this system, just trying to impart some perspective that you could run this system for 1 season on 1 league and it may not be profitable.

Given that the opening poster is concerned about it this early in the season made me think that it's always good to get all the information you can, especially if you are running a system that someone else has suggested.

In this match this evening the prekickoff price was 17.5 and hit
9.0 on 28 mins. (Barca v Porto)

U.A. Any system/ method can be a winner one season
and a loser the next season.

Indeed Kenilworth, but it's not me that you need to convince or even make aware of this.

I don't need to convince anyone, as I was pointing out
that you were stating the obvious in your earlier post.
I'm sure Trev is aware of it.

U.A replying to ken : In that game, the 0-0 seconds before kick-off was 10.5/11.

That makes it an even better bet. It's often possible to lay a tick or 2 below kick off odds which gives an extra couple of minutes.

Did anyone else notice all the literally free money today in many matches in the c/s market? Nothing to do with this method though.

I was watching just the Barcelona match, and if anyone is interested
the half price (9.0) arrived on 28 mins.

Kenilworth, i'm sensing a bit of hostility from you or am i misreading things, it's always difficult with the written word. What may be obvious to you is not obvious to everybody now may it.

U.A. No hostility intended I assure you. I just thought your
comment to Trev, was a little patronising pointing out some-
thing I am sure he is totally aware of, experienced as he is.
Going back to the theme of the thread I feel the weakness of
the method IMO is not knowing at what point the price (halfs,
or is it halves?)If it settles around 28 mins there is nothing
to be excited abour but, say 33 mins and that would be interesting.

Villa/Wolves 0-0 half price reached after 24 mins.

Yes it's a long term method Kenilworth, win some lose some. I have done  more than ten thousand matches using the method with barely one losing week though.

Matches like Tours V Nantes 13.30 ko are frequently available. KO odds were 8.6, my lay was 6.4 @ 5th minute, which ensures the entire rest of the half before closing bet (as it happens there was a goal).

More time later, around 148 IP matches today!

you can lay Chelsea Norwich 0-0 for 32/1

Trev, I was looking at it strictly as, that is pre kick off price, then
closing at half that price. How can you test when you don't know
at which point the price reached the half way point  Let me know
later when you are less busy.

It's not really set in stone. I don't keep records of every match any more because I found it was taking up more time than the actual betting and became very draining, but when I was learning about football markets I recorded every BF in-play match kick off odds / goal minutes and odds at the time / other details.

I have books of records covering thousands of matches, that's how I tested and how I came to know the method worked, with never a losing month.

If anyone is interested I can put up some other interesting stats that might help those trying to become profitable, or on the other hand if anyone doesn't want me to in case it's something they might be doing, just say!

It seems to me everything depends on when the
first goal arrives and if it settles at around
28 mins then there will be nothing to be gained
or lost. Trev. no one could possibly know all
the minutes played when the 0-0 price halved
from kickoff IMO. Am I wrong ?

Hi there Kenilworth, glad to find out what had slightly irked you.

I can assure you that it was not my intention to be patronising, in fact my comment to Trevh was not about letting him know something that I thought he might be unaware of, but rather more of an explaination as to why I made my earlier comments and statistical information. 

I must admit I thought that it was very generous of Trevh to provide this system in the first place, and have no intention of trying to argue the validity of his system with him given all the work he would have done on it. I was merely expressing concern that someone else might try and use this system with unrealistic expectations, given the nature of the opening post.

Anway as experienced as Trev is i'm sure he can let me know himself if he is finding me patronising (apologies if you did or do think that Trev) although part of me does respect you looking out for mate. Anyway glad there is no hostility and certainly none on my part either.

Kenilworth, if you're using the BF website then yes it would be difficult to impossible to monitor many matches at the same time.

U.A., yes some might have unrealistic expectations, in fact that's a certainty. The very method of redding-up half your bets would drive most people to drink!

U.A. Thanks for the reply, totally accepted, no offence
taken or intended. GL.

I'm glad you two ladies have kissed and made up, very touching. I botted this one up a couple of days ago, it's still early days but the initial results show a net profit of +8-10 lays a day. Obviously the liability is on the high side and will therefore put in a bit of code to release funds @1000 to churn the money. To be honest, even though the bot has produced more winning lays than losers, I have lost larger amounts on the losing lays because it traded low liquidity matches and some back bets didn't get matched, therefore I put in a condition to only place a lay if the total matched is above £5000. The bot places the lay (

Half my post is missing, very apt condsidering the subject matter!
I will post the rest of it if anyone is interested.

*considering ffs

Eyg, that's interesting, I would imagine it's difficult to get the bot to close the initial lay safely? I mean if a gap in the spread appears too soon, couldn't the bot be backing at say 4.0 having laid at 12.0? And of course the greater the stake the greater the difficulty in redding-up at the required odds.

If there was a wide spread, the Lay side would be slightly lower and the Back side would be slightly higher than norm. The stop loss triggers when the best Back price reaches the 50% mark so it works well in that sense. Putting in a condition that will only trade markets with a certain amount of liquidity helps (any suggestions would help with this, I have currently set it at 5k), I also put in a chase facility to make sure the closing trade gets matched.

Trev H, That is a very interesting system and obviously well researched. I assume you would only use high liquidity games to keep the edge on the time decay. A couple of thoughts - Did you ever in those early days test this over a longer period ? say 60 minutes etc and have you ever considered cross markets combining this system ? Last season I tried a system nearly opposite to this one where I backed the nil nil on matches where stats indicated likely first goal time between 26-30 minutes and combined this with backing over 2.5 goals about 20 minutes in play. My theory was to win/trade profitably on the 2 bets and with careful selection at least it showed a profit. I struggle to get the back high lay low philosophy out of my head and find incredibly good value on the correct score market. A back of the 2-2 score with a view to trade is a favourite of mine and I have never had a problem with the losing runs because experience has shown me that the odds come in very sharply on numerous occasions for a green trade. Thanks for sharing that and best of luck.

EYG, I used to play in most matches except the very very sparse, so your 5k rule sounds very conservative to me.

MIS, I've never been one for combining bets, I like to keep it simple but good luck if you can make that work.

I did look at closing the lay further on in the match for a larger red screen but the results were worse overall.

During my record keeping I discovered some other interesting anomalies along the way, such as what happens if you lay (to leave/not red up) the current score after every goal up to the 70th minute, compared to backing it. The result was surprising. Another interesting one is what happens if you lay or back an early 1-0 (in lower odds matches) in comparison to laying or backing an early 0-0 at the same point, which was consistently surprising. :)

keep backing the current score is the way to go